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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1284
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Donkey
Kong boosting makes sense. Returns between 2010 and 2013, Tropical
Freeze since then and now with the more popular Switch version this
year. Of course he would be the strongest he's ever been. WarThaNemesis2 posted... LeonhartFour posted...WarThaNemesis2 posted...show hidden quote(s)the like 15th strongest nintendo game beat the best unrallied non-nintendo/square had to offer MGS3 lost to Resident Evil 4, which in turn looked worse than Fallout 3 (and Half-Life 2, but Half-Life has weakened substantially since thanks Valve). But Skyrim has a definite claim be the strongest non-Nintendo/non-Square game. I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh BKSheikah (edited 10/20/2018 3:13:50 AM) |
....
I just hope this adds to Walu defeating Aerith. I need my boy to at
least make it past round 1 (and round 2, because whoever wins
Walu/Aerith should have no problem with Toad/Shovel) http://www.change.org/petitions/nintendo-give-waluigi-a-chance-in-the-spotlight Let's try giving Waluigi a chance in the spotlight! 2,390+ supporters! |
Exodecai posted... .... I just hope this adds to Walu defeating Aerith. I need my boy to at least make it past round 1 (and round 2, because whoever wins Walu/Aerith should have no problem with Toad/Shovel) I think that's asking too much on base strength. Waluigi is no DK and Tidus is no Aerith. Especially because bracket votes now count double But he's definitely a rally candidate Started from the bottom now we here (edited 10/20/2018 3:00:42 AM) |
So I just woke up...Well I had picked DK on the start but I thought since FF X is considered so good I picked Tidus. Ah well. So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing? |
Lightning Strikes posted... Donkey Kong boosting makes sense. Returns between 2010 and 2013, Tropical Freeze since then and now with the more popular Switch version this year. Of course he would be the strongest he's ever been. This is part of what I was banking on, yes. DK now is a completely different animal from DK a decade ago. But this confirms that FFX is considerably weaker too perhaps. Even in 2009 Chrono Trigger would have probably 55-45'd it. "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
I wonder if Auron to the div finals is suddenly a heavily compromised pick lol Started from the bottom now we here |
Auron's much stronger than Tidus. Tidus got 54-46'd by someone Auron 60-40'd. "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
Why most people here we chose Tidus over DK by the way? So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing? |
In fairness they have faced off before and Tidus won easily, but that was in a 4-way a full decade ago. Also because DK has a bit of a history of choking, though now it looks like Tidus is the new choke king. "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
Safer_777 posted... Why most people here we chose Tidus over DK by the way? Who gives a f*** about Donkey Kong? Turns out a lot of people, actually. Not_Wylvane |
I'll still never get over Jecht doing better in his sole solo contest appearance than Tidus in sixteen years of these. Not_Wylvane |
To be fair Jecht had a piss-weak fourpack. "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
pjbasis posted... as long as you vote for noctis over master hand we good Duh Wait until you see my crew write-up! Although at this rate it'll go up after the match and I'll either look dumb or smart MZero, to the extreme "2017 Guru champ BKSheikah is racist against cute Pokemon." - Luster |
Safer_777 posted... Why most people here we chose Tidus over DK by the way? I had DK at first but all the experts kept telling me Tidus was winning, so I changed it a couple of hours before the deadline. XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak PSN ID - Kudaark Steam Name : skaalfa |
f***ing
a, I lose my perfect bracket on Day 2. I never even considered Aya to
win but I switched from DK at one point. This does make me feel better
about taking Master Hand over Noctis tho. |
But maybe DK was really underrated in CBIX and Lightning just has always been Tidus-level. *checks eight year old stats* Checks out! Noctis' ceiling got a little higher! |
Safer_777 posted... Why most people here we chose Tidus over DK by the way? Because Tidus was historically stronger than DK, and most people didn't see that changing. |
I guess the real test will be Lightning vs Dante. Tidus level would be a 60-40, let's see it! |
Safer_777 posted... Why most people here we chose Tidus over DK by the way? Because we have extensive data on both of them and virtually all of it pointed to a Tidus win |
so lol x-stats, basically Geothermal terpsichorean ejectamenta |
pjbasis posted... But maybe DK was really underrated in CBIX and Lightning just has always been Tidus-level. I mean, DK also had Falco weighing him down in that match Warning: I'm literally VeryInsane. |
I
mean if you just go with your gut in every match you may get some
upsets the experts will miss, but you are likely to miss a lot of stuff
the board won't. |
Nintendo
getting stronger over time while Square get weaker doesn't seem
surprising actually, I should have went with DK but oh well. I don't
think this spells trouble for someone like Squall,was Tidus ever really
liked? he is third strongest from his own game after Auron and Yuna.
Nobody ever cared about Tidus and now his game is so old, he is even
less relevant. ... |
ZeldaTPLink posted... I mean if you just go with your gut in every match you may get some upsets the experts will miss, but you are likely to miss a lot of stuff the board won't. it should be a combination of both the data and your gut feeling, obviously. nobody has ever won a contest by simply filling in the x-stats results for all the matches we have data for. Geothermal terpsichorean ejectamenta |
Such a long time ago https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1307-north-division-round-1-tidus-vs-ganondorf Granted this was also when Magus > Ganondorf but also when Magus put up 35% on Link (edited 10/20/2018 6:09:33 AM) |
Mr Lasastryke posted... ZeldaTPLink posted...I mean if you just go with your gut in every match you may get some upsets the experts will miss, but you are likely to miss a lot of stuff the board won't. I agree, it's just that those posts complaining about how following the board is bad for you are annoying. It's easy to say the board sucks after you get 15 matches right by listening to bop and The Show and get one match wrong that everyone was split on. Tidus vs DK was never supposed to be easy. |
Myself,
I went with my gut on DK being the ultimate choker, failed to disregard
tropical freeze, and used xtats for validation. Oh well. |
i think that's what a lot of people did, it was an easy mistake to make Curator of the Character Battle X Archive https://bit.ly/2RFxBzp |
I chose Tidus because I will always choose him in a debatable match MZero, to the extreme "2017 Guru champ BKSheikah is racist against cute Pokemon." - Luster |
Apparently I took DK in my bracket. Just a shame I also took Sully! I filled my bracket in during the last hour without much thought so I expect to get rinsed on a few matches B8 get right as a whole. I'll probably go against my bracket a lot in the oracle too like I did in 2 matches today. |
It came down to this: - stats said Tidus was only marginally stronger than DK in 2013 - Square lost popularity and Nintendo gained in 2013. nothing happened since then to reverse that trend. - Switch is extremely popular - Tidus has always been low on the FF spectrum, and even actively disliked by many, even those who love his game I don't consider myself an expert, but this is exactly what I predicted. I was genuinely surprised to see the board favored Tidus. Character Battle X Current Score: 4/4 How do Yu prove that Yu exist? |
I
stuck with DK because I didn't like how I had DK > Lightning in the
last character contest and DKC2 winning two matches in the games contest
until I was convinced by the board (emphasis on "I was convinced") to
change. After those two upsets plus Tidus never coming through, well... "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
ZeldaTPLink posted... I agree, it's just that those posts complaining about how following the board is bad for you are annoying. oh, sure. i do think it's a bit annoying when the contest experts use faulty logic when predicting matches. like, in best game ever '15 the majority of them picked persona 3 to beat dragon quest viii but as far as i know that wasn't based on x-stats or anything. they just went "PERSONA IS SO BIG RIGHT NOW," not taking into account that "persona being big now" was really a board 8 bubble thing and that in the real world most people (evidently) didn't care all that much about the franchise. but even then, i made a mistake by listening to the board and picking persona 3. i would never blame the board for me listening to them. Geothermal terpsichorean ejectamenta |
The Owner of FF9 posted... It came down to this: To be fair though, Tidus and DK have clashed before and... http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Donkey_Kong_vs_Miles_%27Tails%27_Prower_vs_Tidus_vs_Weighted_Companion_Cube_2008 "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
guys....the
final fantasy series is completely dead. sephiroth is, by far, the
weakest of the noble nine. cloud is, by far, the second weakest. 9/2/2013, the day Reddit hacked GameFAQs http://ibin.co/2Q0B4x43LQ0L |
LinkMarioSamus posted... The Owner of FF9 posted...It came down to this: Clearly, Tails sffed DK (edited 10/20/2018 6:43:47 AM) |
Board 8 = (when predicting one upset correctly) lol x-stats Also B8 = *uses x-stats extensively to do significantly better than all the randoms submitting brackets* Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
@KamikazePotato
True that. If you go by stats you get almost all matches right. But of
course the few you don't get right people say lol x-stats. So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing? |
Of
course x-stats aren't perfect -- they look to the past for comparable
situations, not to the future about the actual situation. Still better than anything else we have, you just shouldn't ONLY use x-stats. Nominate METAL MAN for 20XX! https://imgur.com/Dr4NAeq |
X-stats will get you in the top 5-10%, but if you want to win you'll have to take at least one major upset. At least for character battle/game contests. CBX - Today's Winners: Vivi, Aya Brea, Tidus, Leon Kennedy Score: 4/4 |
Averia posted... LinkMarioSamus posted...The Owner of FF9 posted...show hidden quote(s)It came down to this: I have to imagine that was actually a thing given how badly both Tails and DK did, but the fact that DK is reversing a 60-40 this handily says it all. LOL Tidus. "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
Simple explanation is that a DK boost was hidden in 2013 because he lost to Zelda/Zard SFF We just assumed Lightning was that bad, turns out she might actually be around Tidus level Which conveniently explains why she did so well on Chloe (its not easy to triple anyone, no matter how weak they are, unless you're decently strong) Fun fact: if Lightning is around Tidus level, then DK might beat Leon before Leon even has the chance to lose to Vivi Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Again,
a small part of me regrets not sticking to my guns and keeping DK >
Leon, though I still think Leon rightfully heads in as the favorite. I
don't think Dragonborn is garbage, and Mr. RE4 is throttling him well. Yoblazer https://imgur.com/gByqgPg |
KamikazePotato posted...
Let's not get crazy now. Character Battle X Current Score: 4/4 How do Yu prove that Yu exist? |
The Owner of FF9 posted... KamikazePotato posted... I think Leon is the favorite going in but these are the kinds of things you have to consider when results like these happen. I honestly dont think Leon would do much better on Tidus than DK is doing. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Watch DK beat Leon, then lose to Vivi just as bad as he has twice before. Nominate METAL MAN for 20XX! https://imgur.com/Dr4NAeq |
Feel the Tropical Burn. It's like paying for bubble wrap. -transience on Final Fantasy: All the Bravest |
Shifting
to Sully's match, in GOTD The Legend of Dragoon broke 40% on Uncharted
2. Would it be a stretch for Parasite Eve to manage a similar feat? Also is Drake the favorite against Tails? I just saw people in their prediction topics deciding Drake would win and aside from that heard nothing about that match. As for DK vs. Leon, Leon and Tidus have clashed before and Leon got 62% on him, although that was with Vivi (and Pikachu) in the same poll. Oh dear. "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil (edited 10/20/2018 8:59:54 AM) |
Also,
if we're going off the idea of DK being deceptively stronger in 2013,
does that have any bearing to you regarding Charizard >= Zelda >
DK in 2013? As in, do you think the Charizard/Zelda part would have
gone differently without DK in the context of this new understanding
we're building around DK? Nominate METAL MAN for 20XX! https://imgur.com/Dr4NAeq |
Mr Lasastryke posted... so lol x-stats, basically Always. That's like looking at who won a sports championship 5 years ago and betting money solely on them to win again beforebtheybe even played game 1. -~get rich or drunk trying ~- (edited 10/20/2018 8:59:48 AM) |
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