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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1283
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I'm pretty tempted to take Mega Man over Cloud. Can't be cookie cutter if you wanna win. If I'm to choose between one evil and another, then I prefer not to choose at all. |
Advokaiser posted... Has Link actually boosted that much with BotW? Did it? Either way, I think having a well received game can only help, and it's not like he needs that much help to start with. (edited 10/17/2018 2:58:05 PM) |
I feel like it's pretty impossible to be cookie cutter in this bracket. Even the safe picks feel like long shots. |
Yeah,
the winners/losers bracket stuff especially will be nearly impossible
to be cookie cutter just because there will be so many possible
permutations of which characters might be there. Honestly, you only need to deviate from the consensus a few times and be right to land on the final leaderboard. |
Breath
of the Wild is the best received Zelda game since like Twilight
Princess. It's a huge seller. Made Link cool again. I still see memes
about it all the time. I think we've got a super powered Link this year
from a combination of that and revenge for Draven. He hasn't actually
won a contest in eight years - and I think his fans are probably aware
of that. Aside from Link matches I have no idea what the consensus is on any match in Legends. I picked Mega Man over Cloud because it's a fanboy pick that can also happen with Mega Magic(tm)! Born to lose, live to win! |
I think it's even more well received than TP. |
Probably means I'm dumb for picking Dante to beat Ganondorf If I'm to choose between one evil and another, then I prefer not to choose at all. |
Looks like another site wide notification is up for brackets I wonder if anything will show up for the actual matches ISFJ Big on Visual Novels, Anime, Video games. Twitter: superange128 Planned 2018 Fighting Game Mains: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DgH4MCHVMAAKV9l.png |
Loser's
bracket prediction percentages are gonna be ugly. I wouldn't be
surprised if the contest winner gets a majority of matches in the
loser's bracket incorrect. "Ah,
a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is
a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
LeonhartFour posted... Advokaiser posted...Has Link actually boosted that much with BotW? this is a good point. I am not sure Link boosted with the game. That light blue tunic... Raytan wins! |
Link starts the game shirtless. You never need to put on that tunic if you don't like how it looks. This was not the best year for my bracket. Congrats to BK_Sheikah00 for winning the BYIG Guru Contest! |
Breath of the Wild Link is a great design. |
Sorry
about the double post, but I'll be doing some additional analysis prior
to the contest. This might give us a clue about how well Nintendo
characters will do this contest. This is designed for us to take into
consideration how much Nintendo characters may boost with the registered
votes counting double. Take this with a grain of salt, however. The analysis is according to SBAllen's post back in 2013 (on the Board 8 wiki, look up CBIX and it's in Ulti's post-contest analysis). The (%) listed after each match indicates the percentage the winner got against second place (and against 3rd place in a few cases). The following 2013 matches winners were changed when counting only registered voters: 5149: Jak over Draven (who cares) 5227: Mega Man X over Draven (who cares) 5253: Link over Draven (who cares) 5171: Falcon over Alucard (50%) 5246: Mario over Vivi (50%) 5251: Zelda over Charizard (50%) 5261: Charizard over Mega Man (50%) 5232: Luigi over Big Boss (50.5%) 5220: ?-Block over Rikku (52.5%) 5247: Missingno over Squall (52.5%) 5255: Kirby over Sephiroth (52.98%) 53/47 is the largest gap overcome by registered voters. SBAllen said that about 1/3 of votes are from registered voters in the 2013 contest. Now, we don't know for sure if there actually WERE any other matches in the first three rounds where registered votes would fliip the results. (hence, take this with a grain of salt) I've decided it's worth looking into close matches where the registered votes did NOT change the winner: Registered votes in the following matches did NOT change the winner: Tharja over Tiny Tina (50%) Pikachu over Sora (50%) Ike over Proto Man (50%) Missingno over TIdus (50%) Shepard over Aeris (51%) Squirtle over Cloud (51%) Mr. G&W over Lee Everett (52%) Nathan Drake over Pac-Man (52%) Blue over Fox McCloud (52%) Catherina over Neku (52%) Urdnot over Cecil (52.5%) and Pit (56%) L-Block over Auron (52.5%) Red over Vivi (53.5%) and Squall (59%) Crash f. over Wheatley (54%) Kefka beat Zack (54%) Zidane over Ridley (54%) Yuna over Master Chief (54%) DK over Lightning (54%) Leon Kennedy over Gordon (54%) Pikachu over Crono (54%) Weighted Companion Cube over Claptrap (54.5%) and Lenneth (56%) Mewtwo over Sonic (55%) Phoenix favored over Marth (55%) Samus over Tifa (55%) Elizabeth f. over Poison (56%) Yoshimitsu over Lu Bu (57%) Bowser over Sub-Zero (58%) and The Boss (59%) Squirtle over Dante (58%) Blue over Nathan (58%) From here, it doesn't look likely that Square, even old Square, is highly favored of registered voters. (it's too bad we couldn't see What's also notable is that Ridley got 46% on Zidane and Marth got 45% on Phoenix, but did not manage to get the r-vote victory. Also of note is that Fox did NOT get the r-vote victory over Blue, despite it being 52/48. So, Pokemon is not necessarily far behind the rest of Nintendo with r-votes. I would consider talking about day vs. night matches, but I don't have nearly enough time to look into that. That's another important thing to do when trying to figure out past results. But wait just a minute! L-Block beat Auron only because of a big rally! What I'm saying is that registered voters actually favored L-Block over Auron! If you look at ten minutes into the match, Auron had 54.81% on L-Block! Now Auron could have had a good start, though, true. At that point, Auron had 64.17% against Ezio. At the end of the poll Auron had 62.72% on Ezio, though, so extrapolating from that suggests Auron has 53.11% on L-Block at poll's end, if L-Block was constant. Okay, fine. Anyway, this is significant because L-Block is NOT a Nintendo character. L-Block's chances against Kefka look much better. (I'm not done yet) "Ah,
a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is
a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
NowItsAngeTime posted... Looks like another site wide notification is up for brackets The yellow site alert significantly boosted user registrations when it was used in 2015, but I have no idea if it had any effect on the vote totals for that contest. At least the boost in user registrations will mean more people that will have the registered user bonus. Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ! |
I guess we should start looking for the first batch of match pics. I assume TRE and/or Luster are already on it. |
...wait a minute. Why aren't Mewtwo/Draven and Snake/Draven on that list of 2013 matches that would have had their results changed? Omission on SBAllen's part? [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] [NO BKSheikah NO PEACE] |
AxemRedRanger posted... ...wait a minute. I think Allen might have posted that information on the same day as Mewtwo/Draven, so he probably didn't want to say for sure that the result would have gone the other way with registered users. LeonhartFour posted... I guess we should start looking for the first batch of match pics. It's a little bit too early to check for match pictures at this point. Maybe the first match pictures will be uploaded tomorrow, so I'll wait until tomorrow to make an attempt to find the first match pictures. I currently have a total of 32 possible URLs that I plan to check. Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ! (edited 10/17/2018 8:05:41 PM) |
Allen's
stats about registered users mostly tells me that the 4chan ralliers
had registered accounts in proportion to (or greater than) normal site
visitors. That's who was voting for L-Block over Auron and Squirtle over
Cloud. There's no way those two results reflect the actual will of
normal registered users, as the stats would imply. I'm sorry. Yesmar (edited 10/17/2018 11:17:17 PM) |
HeroicSpiderPig posted... at the 4chan ralliers had registered accounts in proportion to (or greater than) normal site visitors. That's who was voting for L-Block over Auron and Squirtle over Cloud It's very rare for rallied people to register just for it, so I'm not so sure about it. At that time, there was infinite upsets and ridiculous results, so there might have been an "upset" bandwagon. Back then, results were so weird Kirby was considered favored over Sephiroth and most people were surprised when Sephiroth actually won. |
Squall v Zelda who you got and why? oo |
Will this board be linked from the poll as in previous years? It will definitely liven things up a bit if so |
pirate109 posted... Squall v Zelda Zelda because the 2x account thing and BotW should benefit her. |
The 2 vote thing is going to ruin a lot of the non-rally matches. (edited 10/18/2018 8:09:08 AM) |
Moonroof posted... The 2 vote thing is going to ruin a lot of the non-rally matches. yeah I feel like the impact of the 2x registered users votes is being underestimated. ... |
Just confirm the current contests are the Oracle, Bracket Challenge and Spread Betting or am I missing something? Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru |
abdou posted... Moonroof posted...The 2 vote thing is going to ruin a lot of the non-rally matches. I think it's being kind of overestimated honestly |
abdou posted... Moonroof posted...The 2 vote thing is going to ruin a lot of the non-rally matches. Not really, minus rallies, GameFAQs registered users don't differ too much from random site visitors. I doubt anyone that would have won with more than 53% would lose. Besides, the point of the contest is to see the opinion of the site. Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru |
oh good i will give this a tag ~Wigs~ Dp Guru Wins over Me: 1, Fantasy Baseball Wins over Dp: 3 2015 NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPION NEW YORK METS |
charmander6000 posted... abdou posted...Moonroof posted...show hidden quote(s)The 2 vote thing is going to ruin a lot of the non-rally matches. Pretty sure the actual point of the contest is to get people to register for the site and get more traffic Its only half of board 8 that wants it to be about just what the site thinks ISFJ Big on Visual Novels, Anime, Video games. Twitter: superange128 Planned 2018 Fighting Game Mains: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DgH4MCHVMAAKV9l.png |
NowItsAngeTime posted... Pretty sure the actual point of the contest is to get people to register for the site and get more traffic I mean if they're registering for the contest and voting every day then they're part of the site and I have zero problem with their input I just don't care about rallies that come for one match and then disappear until the next match. |
NowItsAngeTime posted... charmander6000 posted...abdou posted...show hidden quote(s)Moonroof posted...The 2 vote thing is going to ruin a lot of the non-rally matches. Nah, if it was SBAllen would have told us to screw off. Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru |
Aka this weird bubble created to try to separate whats generally more popular internet wide Ideally the contest could be popular internet wide but theres almost no reason ti come to GameFaqs consistently A lot of regulars here just stay cuz what were used to ISFJ Big on Visual Novels, Anime, Video games. Twitter: superange128 Planned 2018 Fighting Game Mains: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DgH4MCHVMAAKV9l.png |
charmander6000 posted... NowItsAngeTime posted...charmander6000 posted...show hidden quote(s)abdou posted...Moonroof posted...The 2 vote thing is going to ruin a lot of the non-rally matches. The only reason hes done nice things like the double voting for registered voting is to quiet the down the eventual obnoxious crying ISFJ Big on Visual Novels, Anime, Video games. Twitter: superange128 Planned 2018 Fighting Game Mains: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DgH4MCHVMAAKV9l.png |
NowItsAngeTime posted... Aka this weird bubble created to try to separate whats generally more popular internet wide it's not even that it's an influx of voters specifically designed to flood votes to a single target this isn't about "well Monika would be so much more popular with the internet as a whole" this is about "let's get the specific subset of people who will all vote Monika to come here" |
NowItsAngeTime posted... charmander6000 posted...NowItsAngeTime posted...show hidden quote(s)charmander6000 posted...abdou posted...Moonroof posted...The 2 vote thing is going to ruin a lot of the non-rally matches. Nope, we were going to do that regardless of what happens. This isn't your first contest season, you should know better. Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru |
and
if you go to reddit/4chan/etc they seem REALLY happy about ruining the
contest for gamefaqs, it's annoying and the complaints against it are
justified. Although I do understand SBAllen's position is tough, you
can't block users from visiting the site. ... |
Anyway,
one thought that came up is would Waluigi's 2 seed be a hindrance for
rallying? It's not that funny if a highly seeded character won. Though I guess most people don't know the seed, and besides Draven did win as a 3 seed. Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru |
Yeah, the seed doesn't show up in the match itself, so I doubt it would hinder anything. |
Biggest two question marks in my bracket are Squall/Zelda Tifa/Mega Man X I feel they're both debatable and might swing the same way because there is a similar contrast in both matches. PS1 Square characters with cool designs vs. Nintendo-flavored icons |
Squall/Zelda depends on how much of an affect you believe Breath of the Wild had. Tifa/Mega Man X depends on how close to Mega Man you think X is. Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru |
Breath of the Wild is fraudulent because this is OldFAQs I do think X is weaker than Mega. And Tifa is supposed to be immune to FF7 anti-voting... Maybe I'll go with Square on these. |
where are the damn match pics |
NowItsAngeTime posted... charmander6000 posted...abdou posted...show hidden quote(s)Moonroof posted...The 2 vote thing is going to ruin a lot of the non-rally matches. The point of the contest from the site's perspective is to make money, but not from mine. The point of me following is to enjoy myself, and my enjoyment is not dependent on the financial safety of GameFAQS. Why in the world would I care about a temporary traffic increase to this site? I don't have money invested in it. Yesmar (edited 10/18/2018 11:36:56 AM) |
i just went through and changed about half of my bracket. |
WitcherGeralt posted... I'm pretty tempted to take Mega Man over Cloud. Can't be cookie cutter if you wanna win. I took Mega Man there without hesitation. He was over Cloud in the last contest's x-stats, and has had well-received bundles and Mega Man 11 since then. Cloud has had.... nothing? BKSheikah, my hat is off to you. Welcome to the Guru Champions Club lol xstats |
trogita posted... And Tifa is supposed to be immune to FF7 anti-voting... I anti-vote Tifa. But not because she's a FF7 character, but because of something she called Barret. |
MegaWentEvil posted... trogita posted...And Tifa is supposed to be immune to FF7 anti-voting... Cloud says that Barret snores really loud so you better anti-vote Cloud too. Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. DpOblivion > Me |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted... WitcherGeralt posted...I'm pretty tempted to take Mega Man over Cloud. Can't be cookie cutter if you wanna win. Cloud's inclusion in Smash is enough for me to put it above everyone again besides Link. Here lies the sig of BK_Sheikah00, who swore fealty to the Gurus of Board 8. |
Match I: (1) Dante vs. (16) Cuphead Previous Contest Performance Dante – 2013 Round 1: 60.08% against Laharl (25.59%) and Raz (14.33%) Round 2: 31.55% against Squirtle (44.08%) and Zidane Tribal (24.37%) Cuphead - N/A N/A Analysis It’s been a while. Five years since the last character battle. Any data now is useless, but that won’t stop me from analysing every match. Dante had a rough 2013, due to the backlash of DmC. Even if GameFAQs doesn’t show too much interest in newer games Dante will hope things are forgiven with the announcement of Devil May Cry V. Though unless something crazy happens Dante’s path does feel a bit predictable, so he may not need to worry. As a character from a new IP, I don’t expect too much out of Cuphead. His game did finish third in the 2017 Game of the Year poll where it got crushed by Breath of the Wild and Persona 5. In the past, Dante has had great success in crushing weaker characters and I believe the same will be true here. If Cuphead breaks 30% I would consider that to be a moral victory. charmander6000’s Bracket: Dante > Cuphead charmander6000’s Prediction: Dante wins, 72.43% - 27.57% Match II: (8) Chloe Price vs. (9) Lightning Previous Contest Performance Chloe Price - N/A N/A Lightning - 2013 Round 1: 38.42% against Donkey Kong (45.76%) and Falco Lombardi (15.82%) Analysis Remember when Lightning lost to Donkey Kong despite Falco being in the poll? Lucky for her third times a charm and barring any rallies she should get her first win. Life is Strange was losing 80/20 to Fallout 3 before the Undertale rally increased it to a “respectable” 27%. I feel Life is Strange was more of a slow burner in terms of it gaining popularity, but at the same time the game isn’t geared towards the GameFAQs demographics whom are also less likely to play new IPs. I don’t expect much out of Chloe Price other than to be weak fodder. charmander6000’s Bracket: Lightning > Chloe Prince charmander6000’s Prediction: Lightning wins, 69.11% - 30.89% Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru |
Match III: (5) Spyro the Dragon vs. (12) Chun-Li Previous Contest Performance Spyro the Dragon - 2013 Round 1: 56.83% against Clementine (29.97%) and Reyn (13.20%) Round 2: 21.66% against Sephiroth (52.04%) and Morrigan Aensland (26.30%) Chun-Li - 2013 Round 1: 26.71% against Tifa Lockheart (61.86%) and Cirno (11.43%) Analysis I had to think about this match for a while. Both characters performed around the same against Sephiroth and Tifa which on any other year would be good news for Spyro, but in 2013 Sephiroth looked horrible while Tifa looked to be her usual self. Spyro has started to cross into nostalgic territory in 2013 which would explain his jump in strength. He was also the marketing tool for Skylanders which is no longer popular, but I’m not convinced that it brought him much strength on GameFAQs, but any decrease in strength would spell trouble for him. Chun-Li is the safe bet for this match, but it wouldn’t be shocking if Spyro took the upset. While Street Fighter hasn’t had anything new, based on the favorite Street Fighter character polls Chun-Li has gained in popularity among the GameFAQs users which remain. If Spyro does win I’d keep my eye on Crash and his upcoming match against Cecil. charmander6000’s Bracket: Chun-Li > Spyro the Dragon charmander6000’s Prediction: Chun-Li wins, 55.84% - 44.16% Match IV: (4) Ganondorf vs. (13) Neku Sakuraba Previous Contest Performance Ganondorf - 2013 Round 1: 65.18% against Guybrush Threepwood (18.06%) and Max Payne (16.76%) Round 2: 17.64% against Vivi (41.27%) and Mario (41.09%) Neku Sakuraba - 2013 Round 1: 37.87% against Catherine (39.84%) and Vaas Montenegro (22.29%) Analysis One of the things I’m interested to see is how much of a factor Breath of the Wild will have on this contest. Sure, Ganondorf’s role is not huge, but when is it? Ganondorf, while the board favourite may struggle to win the division and a match in the champion’s bracket should the boost not be as large as expected. He however, won’t struggle in this match. Yes, The World Ends With You was just re-released on the Switch last week, but that alone won’t cover the gap between these two characters. Neku may be consider a mainstay, but he’s far from having any legitimate strength. charmander6000’s Bracket: Ganondorf > Neku Sakuraba charmander6000’s Prediction: Ganondorf wins, 71.36% - 28.64% Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru |
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