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Giant2005 posted... Why is everyone treating a rally as if it is some abnormality that obscures the data? A game having a fanbase dedicated enough to rally for it is part of its inherent strength. My bad, everyone knows Mass Effect 3 is the second strongest game on this site. Agent Triple Zero at your service! This line reserved for 2017 Guru champion. |
Giant2005 posted... Why is everyone treating a rally as if it is some abnormality that obscures the data? A game having a fanbase dedicated enough to rally for it is part of its inherent strength. Depends what kind of rally Pokemon/Melee kind of rally or Undertale/Draven kind 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
The
bonus polls were affected by rallying because they received double the
votes of a standard contest match, and because every single post-rally
day throughout the entire contest was affected by rallying. This is not a
new idea. As far as evidence goes: https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6147-best-game-ever-day-25-round-3-chrono-trigger-vs-final https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6155-best-game-ever-day-29-round-3-zelda-ocarina-of-time-vs-final This is the most basic and obvious example. FFX>FF9. CT did better on FFX than OoT did on FF9. Neither match had a weird scenario affecting it. You might try to claim that FFX suffered SFF, but Chrono Trigger (both games and characters) have a history of acting like an independent entity from Square, and aren't affected much by SFF/LFF. To support that CT's result on FFX was legit, let's turn to the GotD stats: Final Fantasy X - 49.89% Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King - 25.08% Ratchet and Clank: Up Your Arsenal - 21.76% Now let's look at Chrono Trigger's matches against UYA and DQ8: https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6115-best-game-ever-day-17-round-2-chrono-trigger-vs-dragon-quest https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6051-best-game-ever-day-1-chrono-trigger-vs-ratchet-and-clank-3 Based on DQ8, Chrono Trigger is projected to get 64% on FFX. Based on UYA, Chrono Trigger is projected to get 67.5% on FFX. Chrono Trigger's actual result fell between those two projections, so you would be hard-pressed to say that anything wonky happened in the match. CT showed a consistent level of strength throughout its first three rounds. Additionally, the Only Registered Voter results that Bacon gave us had Chrono Trigger getting something like 64% on Melee. It's really late so I'm not going to bring up even more numbers, but that projection lines up with Melee's non-rally results up to that point, so while the number isn't going to be 100% accurate it's pretty damn close. That's also a better numbet than what OoT put out. The 'most legit' other match you can use to indicate that OoT wasn't as strong as it should have been is its match against Suikoden II. https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6131-best-game-ever-day-21-round-2-zelda-ocarina-of-time-vs Suikoden II is probably stronger than we thought, but I think most people here would have difficulty taking it over Dragon Quest 8 and CT beat DQ8 much harder than OoT beat Suikoden II. This is more theory than anything else though. OoT's matches after Round 3 get murkier, because by then Undertale and Melee has started to spill over to the entire field. https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6167-best-game-ever-day-35-division-v-final-zelda-ocarina-of-time https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6176-best-game-ever-day-40-semifinal-zelda-ocarina-of-time-vs The Mario RPG match got double the usual number of votes and I have no idea which way the ralliers would favor more, so I'm not going to pay attention to it very much. It's results did line up extremely close to what OoT's projected results against Mario RPG would have been, though, using results through FF9 and Mario RPG/MGS3 and stuff like that. The Symphony of the Night match was also affected by rallying although not quiiiite as much. Through FF9 and SotN's matches up to that point, OoT overperformed projections slightly in this one...although I think it's a little telling that OoT only managed to get 68% on SotN considering that situation - this is just my theory, but I highly doubt that the tumblr crowd prefers SotN to OoT. Regardless, CT is projected to beat SotN by a lot more. If you want to, though, you can throw out those matches entirely. OoT's matches against Suikoden II and FF9 are entirely fair and it looked really bad in both of those. The SotN/SMRPG matches just serve to reinforce those results. tl;dr - CT is projected to get like 54% on OoT when using non-rally matches. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Giant2005 posted... Why is everyone treating a rally as if it is some abnormality that obscures the data? A game having a fanbase dedicated enough to rally for it is part of its inherent strength. X-stats = contest strength in a vacuum Feel free to adjust your expectations based on circumstances you think might happen, but rallies don't always take off and when they do their strength is completely random regardless. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
KamikazePotato posted... tl;dr - CT is projected to get like 54% on OoT when using non-rally matches. I'd sooner take LttP over CT than subscribe to the belief that CT would win the next game contest. Seems like a recipe for disappointment. Yoblazer http://i.imgur.com/gByqgPg.gif |
CT
would (probably) never win a Games Contest because it cannot be rallied
for. There's no place on the internet to go get CT more support.
GameFAQs is already the biggest concentration of CT fans there is! When looking at stats like these, it's better to think of them as a match that's happening on the very first day of a contest, before any craziness has had time to start and without the whole "it's the finals!" thing whips people into a frenzy. Round 1, Day 1, CT vs. OoT - I would take CT with confidence. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Thanks. However I was specifically talking about the results being altered, not just the number of votes. More when I have the time. However I do not believe rallied matches are worthless at all. I just decided to change this sig. So yeah. |
CaptainOfCrush posted... Allen has been running and entering the contests (for fun; he is not allowed to compete for any prizes) for years. A few of us joked about pic sabotage but none of us seriously think he's rigging things just to earn a spot on the leaderboard. As creativename said, he's just made some very questionable pic choices. It sucks for the people who are getting screwed over, but you can blame him for a poor understanding of what the best pictures are, not for intentionally messing with the results. Also Allen winning would be the most hilarious and interesting thing to happen in this contest and we should root for it Also go 2001 woo Such a lust for revenge |
You
can get some amount of insight from rallied matches, but it depends
heavily on the situation. Everything Melee did once it caught fire
should be entirely thrown out. There's nothing you can extrapolate from a
game turning an easy loss into an easy win thanks to the power of the
internet. The bonus matches are less stupid because they're spillover instead of direct rally scenarios, but the finals results were obviously still affected. Mario RPG underperformed against Melee, FF7 underperformed against OoT, and Super Mario 64 underperformed against Pokemon RBY. These are all results that are very expected once you take into account tumblr's demographic and preferences. And really there's no point to using any of these matches when you have numerous non-rally-affected matches to choose from instead. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
I
can see your point in how it makes those results less useful to draw
future conclusions from. That wasn't really my objection - my objection
was that it sounds like people are trying to discredit the wins in those
instances, regardless of the fact that in that moment, those rallied
wins were well deserved. In that moment, that game/character/whatever
was the most beloved. |
It
really doesn't matter when you consider that nowadays, everything
changes in the last week when rallies become a possibility and Nintendo
fans decide to "come home." In order to get expected results throughout a
contest, you basically need to purposely manufacture a boring contest -
like this one or rivals. Other contests have all had craziness go down,
especially at the end, since late 2010. In retrospect, I now think it's
very impressive that Cloud was able to pull two clutch wins against
Samus and Snake and actually reach the finals in early 2010, since it
seemed like the voters were distancing themselves from results like that
even back then. Basically, X-Stats and the "earlier matches" of a contest tell you that Chrono Trigger would beat Uncharted worse than Ocarina would. Potentially helpful for an Oracle prediction, but not useful when the best are actually up against the best. Yoblazer http://i.imgur.com/gByqgPg.gif |
CaptainOfCrush posted... It really doesn't matter when you consider that nowadays, everything changes in the last week when rallies become a possibility and Nintendo fans decide to "come home." I don't disagree with this - this is what I was getting at with the whole "imagine it as the first match of the contest" thing. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
KamikazePotato posted... tl;dr - CT is projected to get like 54% on OoT when using non-rally matches. CT gets rallied every battle because of Nick's facebook page. It's inherent strength is far below FF7 and OoT, and probably many others. 9/2/2013, the day Reddit hacked GameFAQs http://ibin.co/2Q0B4x43LQ0L |
So guys how are 97s chances? My l0lbracket says 2001 but my heart says 97. Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. DpOblivion > Me |
KamikazePotato posted... The 'most legit' other match you can use to indicate that OoT wasn't as strong as it should have been is its match against Suikoden II. This is skewed. No game on this site gets even half as many anti-votes as OoT. So the fact that it didn't completely decimate a worthless opponent, but instead just solidly tripled it, doesn't mean anything. 9/2/2013, the day Reddit hacked GameFAQs http://ibin.co/2Q0B4x43LQ0L |
Zylothewolf posted... So guys how are 97s chances? My l0lbracket says 2001 but my heart says 97. It's over There are no trends 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
_SecretSquirrel posted... KamikazePotato posted...I think the last line is more or less equal. SF64>DMC>AW>Fallout. Actually Fallout 1 has never been in a contest. Fallout *2* made Spring '04. Also, Advance Wars did make GOTD and managed to avoid a tripling from GSC. It's kinda amusing we're trying to debate the popularity of all these games in terms of contest strength considering how many outside factors can mess things up nowadays. Not saying that we shouldn't though! "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
Nanis23 posted... Zylothewolf posted...So guys how are 97s chances? My l0lbracket says 2001 but my heart says 97. Remember the good old days when a 300 lead was nothing? Now it's an impossible comeback lead. Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. DpOblivion > Me |
Giant2005 posted... Why is everyone treating a rally as if it is some abnormality that obscures the data? A game having a fanbase dedicated enough to rally for it is part of its inherent strength. Because it doesn't happen most of the time and people talk about strength when they are trying to predict what will win most of the time. |
maaaaaaaaan first 2006, then 2000, now 1997 I have real bad luck this contest! xyzzy |
Giant2005 posted... Why is everyone treating a rally as if it is some abnormality that obscures the data? A game having a fanbase dedicated enough to rally for it is part of its inherent strength. It's not a sign of the game's strength. It's a sign that, at the current instant during which the contest is occurring, a huge proportion of the fans of a game happen to be on a message board that allows people to post highly-viewable topics soliciting votes in another site's contest. Maybe four or five games have that, regardless of how dedicated their fanbase is. I mean honestly, you really think it's legitimate that a piece of s*** like Undertale beat Melee? Or that their fanbase is even 1/100th as dedicated as Melee's? 9/2/2013, the day Reddit hacked GameFAQs http://ibin.co/2Q0B4x43LQ0L (edited 5/20/2017 4:17:07 AM) |
PoIl6177 posted... I mean honestly, you really think it's legitimate that a piece of s*** like Undertale beat Melee? Or that their fanbase is even 1/100th as dedicated as Melee's? What I think is irrelevant - the votes went to Undertale, so in that moment it was objectively true that their fanbase was more dedicated. But I do agree with Undertale being a piece of s*** and personally do not think it deserved the win. |
Giant2005 posted... so in that moment it was objectively true that their fanbase was more dedicated. The Melee fanbase is and always has been exponentially more dedicated than the Undertale fanbase. They just don't all sit on a message board like a bunch of mindless cattle. 9/2/2013, the day Reddit hacked GameFAQs http://ibin.co/2Q0B4x43LQ0L (edited 5/20/2017 4:42:45 AM) |
lol @ undertale fanbase. That game was new and was the hipster thing for a lot of social media dweebs. If undertale was in a contest now it would get its arsed demolished by even low tier Midcarders. |
And 97 is a fraud. I did vote for it even though I think 2001 is the far better year. I will never vote against Diddy Kong Racing. Ever. |
KamikazePotato posted... CT would (probably) never win a Games Contest because it cannot be rallied for. There's no place on the internet to go get CT more support. GameFAQs is already the biggest concentration of CT fans there is! then you'd be wrong. Theres no way CT ever beats OoT. Even in the 2004 Best games contest it would have lost where CT was at it's strongest. 2015 was an anomoly. Also CT was being rallied in that contest by some facebook group. It was hugely overrated in terms of strength. IT wouldn't do anything to OoT now. Anyone who believes it will is just holding onto some of the most ridiculously loopsided xstats we'll ever see. |
Januzaj_Dragon posted... KamikazePotato posted...CT would (probably) never win a Games Contest because it cannot be rallied for. There's no place on the internet to go get CT more support. GameFAQs is already the biggest concentration of CT fans there is! So every 28,000 chrono trigger fan from the facebook page decided to die at the same time? What makes you think that facebook page wont vote again? Congrats DpObliVion for wrecking gurus From the place of your birth to the ends of the Earth~ |
spooky96 posted... Januzaj_Dragon posted...KamikazePotato posted...CT would (probably) never win a Games Contest because it cannot be rallied for. There's no place on the internet to go get CT more support. GameFAQs is already the biggest concentration of CT fans there is! They probably will. But right now with the BOTW hype and Switch. Nintendo's standing is just much strong on this site. Also you're forgetting CT was on the SNES. I don't care what it does to an overrated FF game that couldn't even beat a 3rd tier Zelda game in Majoras Mask. Lets put it up against a classic Nintendo game. Lets do a 1v1 against LttP and see how it does. SFF is a huge factor that people overlook. A lot of people who played CT also played Lttp and Mario world and FF6. Also if CT is allowed to have a facebook group rallying, then Zelda can get rallied too. it probably will do and by a much larger source. Getting external groups to vote is largely a pointless exercise. (edited 5/20/2017 5:33:51 AM) |
Do people actually believe Nick's rally had any meaningful impact on anything or is that a joke I just don't get? You can argue whether CT would actually beat OoT when push comes to shove, but the numbers suggest it would at least give it one heck of a fight. That game was otherworldly and the 2015 contest is worse off for it not getting a shot at FFVII and OoT. |
Wow, we're already in the semi-finals? I just do not give a f*** about this contest. Touch fuzzy. Get fuzzier. Inviso |
Incidentally,
the unadjusted direct extrapolated stats through rallied Melee and
Undertale are quite close to the 54% for CT against OOT cited by KP
through his indirect comparisons. I think the adjustments actually help
OOT. I mean, it doesn't mean much, but the last 2 UT matches were the
closest rallied UT ever came to showing normal trends - the rally in
those matches was a 24 hour thing that started from the moment the match
opened. As far as CT winning against OOT goes, the most important thing for that is to get Link some more contest wins. Get it in the voters' minds that Link always wins, so they rebel against it. Poor Link hasn't won a contest since 2011... September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
And with no sign of a comeback, this one is looking over. Hopefully the Melee day vote can propel 1995 above 1997 in the stats. September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
You can't say that this win is only Link's. I can say it is Master Chief's. Or anything from that year really. Why do we exist? What happens when we stop existing? What is Life? |
Here's
the thing about the rally spillover - in order to argue that it
invalidates the matches that put OoT above CT you effectivelly need to
argue that FFVII underperformed against OoT worse than it did against
Melee. I do not see how that can be. Why would rally spillover harm
FFVII as much or worse than an actual rally? If we argue an equal
underperformance for CT and FFVII against Melee and that the spillover
effect was equal to the rally effect, then OoT still beats CT with
roughly 53%. The other option is saying that CT was harmed more by the
Melee rally than FFVII but that doesn't really follow the way we know
rallies to work. In reality FFVII probably underperformed worse against
Melee than CT and not as badly against OoT, putting the kibosh on CT's
chances. I also don't think OoT overperformed that much against FFVII. If they met again it would be a 57%+ beatdown in favour of OoT. I just decided to change this sig. So yeah. |
I don't care for FFVII, why is Castlevania SotN losing? Or Fallout, for crying out loud. 3DS FC: 2423 - 4301 - 6207 Moon IGN: Safer (edited 5/20/2017 6:45:53 AM) |
Melee
was probably stronger against FFVII than against CT, but there's no way
to measure the effectiveness of a rally (plus bandwagon voters on site)
between rounds. |
Melee
was absolutely stronger against FF7 compared to CT. Don't think much,
as any contest progresses, more and more people become aware about it
and vote accordingly. Congrats DpObliVion for wrecking gurus From the place of your birth to the ends of the Earth~ |
Melee/FFVII got 30k more votes than Melee/CT Now obviously not all of those 30k votes went to Melee, but I imagine a disproportionate amount went to Melee. Best Year in Gaming - Today's Winner: 2001 Current Bracket Score: 45/52 |
In earlier rounds, rallies are lazy and power scale to their opponent. https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6165-best-game-ever-day-34-division-iii-final-pokemon-red-blue-vs https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6172-best-game-ever-day-37-quarterfinal-undertale-vs-super-mario https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6175-best-game-ever-day-39-semifinal-smash-bros-melee-vs RBY rallied. Mario 64 sat around and did nothing. SSBM rallied a ton. Undertale won all three matches with just over 51%. Undertale while losing in a match is way stronger than Undertale that is leading. The finals seems to be a different beast and Undertale voters were no longer able to hold back their power: https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6177-best-game-ever-final-undertale-vs-zelda-ocarina-of-time The finals is also what spllied into the bonus matches. This massive amount of spillover is further corroborated by the massively inflated vote totals. Assuming equal rally effect against FF7 and CT is a faulty assumption. The only way to determine the strenth of the rallies is if you already know how strong FF7 and CT are. If you start with that, it's circular logic to use the strength of the rallies to show how strong FF7 and CT are. My bracket got smashed by DpObliVion. Congrats to DpObliVion for winning the BGE15 Guru Contest! |
charmander6000 posted... Melee/FFVII got 30k more votes than Melee/CT This is misleading. Undertale vs Mario 64 was on the same match day as SSBM vs FF7 and the Undertale match had the higher vote total. So Undertale voters were spilling into SSBM vs FF7 further making a mess of it. My bracket got smashed by DpObliVion. Congrats to DpObliVion for winning the BGE15 Guru Contest! |
We
know how rallies work enough to know that it is very unlikely that
FFVII did not suffer less than CT. Therefore CT is very unlikely to be
stronger than OoT. The exact level of difference doesn't actually
matter. But we know that CT cannot be stronger than OoT unless: -Melee's rally effect was stronger against CT than FFVII. -FFVII underperformed more against OoT than Melee despite no active rally. Those are two much bigger assumptions than the idea that DQVIII and UYA got weaker after 5 years. I just decided to change this sig. So yeah. |
You're forgeting a major argument in CT's favor against LoZ:OoT: Brought to you by GameFlux Free GameFAQs app on Google Play! |
Once again a cite these two matches: https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6165-best-game-ever-day-34-division-iii-final-pokemon-red-blue-vs https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6172-best-game-ever-day-37-quarterfinal-undertale-vs-super-mario Undertale vs Mario 64 happened later in the contest and yet it was weaker against Mario 64. The peak strength of a rally grows as the contest progresses. However, a rallied entry will not necessarily show its peak strength unless you push it and Mario 64 just rolled over and died. Your initial assumption on how rallies work is simply wrong. You are assuming a consistency that does not exist. It is absolutely possible SSBM has a bigger rally against CT. Also FF7 did not need to underperform more against OoT than SSBM for CT to be number 1 so I don't know why you are listing that as a necessary condition. Like if you look at the X-Stats that are being used with CT as number 1, FF7 underperformed a lot worse against SSBM than OoT. My bracket got smashed by DpObliVion. Congrats to DpObliVion for winning the BGE15 Guru Contest! |
I don't take those bonus polls at face value. Melee in particular looks way better than it actually is. |
We had 10 zero brackets! I just noticed! Why do we exist? What happens when we stop existing? What is Life? |
Getting a zero bracket in this contest is so easy lol There were like what..2-3 debateable matches in the first round? 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
In
the case of Undertale it was receiving dramatic counter-rallying until
the last match where everyone rolled over. Not to mention I find it hard
to believe that FFVII wouldn't push Melee as hard as CT. Of course, the fact that SSBM/FFVII got so many more votes absolutely suggests a stronger rally. Now, you could say that it was affected by the Undertale rally and that helped FFVII, but that runs counter to the idea that FFVII underperformed against OoT because of Undertale's rally spillover. Rallies are not chaos, we can get info out of them. Either way, the bonus matches show a remarkable consistency between the FFVI matches. I can't imagine the result of those were altered by rallying for a Smash Bros. game. I just decided to change this sig. So yeah. |
Undertale didn't get anything dramatic from either Mario game. In 2013, Draven rallies only did as much as they needed to win most of the time. Rallies are more effective when the match is close. |
fricking 2001.... Fall down, go boom... Life is like a box of chocolates. Most of it is crap. |
1997 rules as the best year of gaming :P Fall down, go boom... Life is like a box of chocolates. Most of it is crap. |
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