GameFAQs Contests

1994 has lost 8.5% since the freeze.

Leon believe in the keyblade

UltimaterializerX posted...

Wouldn't even be close. 2002 probably would break 60% on it given how this contest has played out.

so you think 2002 beats 1994 then?

yeah no

(also 2002 has a GTA and a Warcraft that would probably lose to their 2004 counterparts so I don't see how that helps it)

LeonhartFour posted...

UltimaterializerX posted...

Wouldn't even be close. 2002 probably would break 60% on it given how this contest has played out.

so you think 2002 beats 1994 then?

yeah no

The transitive property hasn't mattered in these contests in almost a decade.

Never underestimate a great Samus pic.

UltimaterializerX posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

UltimaterializerX posted...

Wouldn't even be close. 2002 probably would break 60% on it given how this contest has played out.

so you think 2002 beats 1994 then?

yeah no

The transitive property hasn't mattered in these contests in almost a decade.

That's only with SFF and rallies. Otherwise it applies fine. Leon is right, 1994 beats 2002.

OrangeCrush980 posted...

Metal_DK posted...

No, it wouldn't of. FF12 barely has a fanbase (fun fact, FFX will be the last FF worth a damn in anything gfaqs contest related). KH2 doesnt have much contest strength anymore either. Most people have moved on to WRPGs anyway, and Skryim (despite it being meh imo) is praised by plenty of people.

GameFAQs isn't most people. And KH2 looked great against Melee, which went on to do great things that contest.

That was a long time ago

I feel 1991 would be putting similar numbers on 2011 that 1994 is though (if not better!)

At first I thought the insane board votes from this contest was a product of our extremely low vote totals and the early voters making up a larger percentage of the board vote, but I've changed this position when I saw how much the pictures matter. This contest is our most picture dependent contest we've ever had, and I now believe the insane board votes come from early voters having a clear idea of what to vote for before the match starts and being very unlikely to be influenced by the match picture. People who vote based on the match picture are not likely to vote during the board vote and hold off on voting until they put more thought into their vote, including looking at the match pictures or using the ? Mark icons.

The match pictures matter far more in this contest than any previous contest and this has created a sharp divide between early voters and the voters after the first 5-10 minutes of the match.

LeonhartFour posted...

pjbasis posted...

holding 94 under 60% is a moral victory

the worst kind of victory

still upset about the raw deal 2004 got

Eh, I'd take the unwinnable matchup over having a winnable one and losing because of the match pic!

UltimaterializerX posted...

The transitive property hasn't mattered in these contests in almost a decade.

It never stopped mattering, actually.

also 1994 continues to leak percentage at an alarming rate so I feel a bit better

LusterSoldier posted...

At first I thought the insane board votes from this contest was a product of our extremely low vote totals and the early voters making up a larger percentage of the board vote, but I've changed this position when I saw how much the pictures matter. This contest is our most picture dependent contest we've ever had, and I now believe the insane board votes come from early voters having a clear idea of what to vote for before the match starts and being very unlikely to be influenced by the match picture. People who vote based on the match picture are not likely to vote during the board vote and hold off on voting until they put more thought into their vote, including looking at the match pictures or using the ? Mark icons.

The match pictures matter far more in this contest than any previous contest and this has created a sharp divide between early voters and the voters after the first 5-10 minutes of the match.

Seems reasonable, smart analysis.

LeonhartFour posted...

UltimaterializerX posted...

The transitive property hasn't mattered in these contests in almost a decade.

It never stopped mattering, actually.

I'm not getting into a stats argument with people but they don't even remotely matter anymore. I would argue they never did but rallies have really proven it.

Our worst contests have all been the most predictable. Not an accident.

UItimaterializer posted...

I'm not getting into a stats argument

you haven't actually had a stats argument in over 12 years anyway

you've done nothing but dismiss and handwave away anything you disagree with since 2005

UItimaterializer posted...

Our worst contests have all been the most predictable. Not an accident.

yeah it's also not relevant to stats

I don't know what it means to say that the transitive property doesn't matter. It's obvious from the results that transitivity holds up most of the time. Although it's not a factor, which is generally the thing that can matter (or not).

LeonhartFour posted...

UItimaterializer posted...

I'm not getting into a stats argument

you haven't actually had a stats argument in over 12 years anyway

you've done nothing but dismiss and handwave away anything you disagree with since 2005

UItimaterializer posted...

Our worst contests have all been the most predictable. Not an accident.

yeah it's also not relevant to stats

I've hated advanced metrics since long before 2005. It just hadn't ruined our contests yet.

Russel Westbrook and James Harden being MVP candidates over Lebron is a joke.

By the way what are you even on about? 2002 is getting utterly destroyed.

They never ruined the contests. The most predictable contests--this one, Series, and Rivalry Rumble--all had zero data going into them, so you're tilting at windmills blaming stats for them being predictable.

also Westbrook winning the MVP is actually very anti-metrics because metrics don't place much added value on triple-doubles

Harden winning would be the metrics MVP

LeBron shouldn't win because he coasted through the regular season and deliberately sat out of 15% of it

Those awards being regular season only makes zero sense. The whole point of sports is playing to win.

They have an award for being the best postseason player, too.

MVPs are seen as being more important than Finals MVP in basketball, which I have never understood.

Not really. People remember who wins championship MVPs, too.

So I just checked the results...Yeah my 1991 pick isn't happening in the next round. Well I have 3 days until that happens so I hope I score more KO's in the gurus. Assuming that the favorites will win until then.

man, I just looked at the updater. 1991 has lost the last hour and it's coming up on a day vote against KH. it probably pulls away but man what an upset this would be.

How exactly do you justify a deep 1995 prediction without relying on the principles that make the X-Stats work? 1995 going deep relies on CT being stronger than OoT and being able to carry the entire year on it back. CT never really directly beat anyone that strong so it relies on margin of victory being important for showing it can hang with OoT.

Ummm, what the hell 91, and we thought 94 was possibly laying an egg, this is a gigantic egg from 91 sheesh

My '94 pick next round is feeling better and better.

Hmm well I dunno it's not like 2002 first image in rotation is Metroid Prime and it's followed by Kingdom Hearts 2 which was able to put 45% on Melee hmm what a weak year 2002 is clearly 91 is underperforming!

If both 1991 and 1994 lay one egg each don't they cancel each one out?

Alternatively, how does 2002 compare to 2004?

91 and 94 probably isn't even a strength battle if the late 80s/early 90s matches so far are any indication.

Man, 1994 has lost nearly 15% since the freeze. That's kind of insane. Both matches have gone from "whoa lookin' good" to "ehhhh not so much," but 1994 probably still has the edge.

transcience posted...

man, I just looked at the updater. 1991 has lost the last hour and it's coming up on a day vote against KH. it probably pulls away but man what an upset this would be.

thankfully it's Sunday and years don't seem to have the same trends as the games in them anyway

1997 has had the exact opposite trends FFVII normally does

yeah. without looking, I think 94 did this with 04 as well? maybe 04 is our early vote darling of the contest. it's all SNES so it makes perfect sense.

although Mario still does seem to do best in the am

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Alternatively, how does 2002 compare to 2004?

Currently, 2002 would need to beat 2004 with 55.11% for 1991 and 1994 to be equal.

2004 is worth 53.74% on 2011 and 58.26% on 2006. 1991 gets 72.81% on 2010 right now.

transcience posted...

yeah. without looking, I think 94 did this with 04 as well? maybe 04 is our early vote darling of the contest. it's all SNES so it makes perfect sense.

1994 lost about 8-9% after the freeze last round, so it's comparable, but still not quite to this extent.

Well, after taking a look at these morning percentages...

1994 has dropped like a rock, but so has 1991, to an even more alarming extent because it might end up winning this with only 53% while 94 should at least stay above 60%. Would 2002 beat 2011? Maybe (or probably), but not with enough legroom for me to consider 1991 the favorite next round.

This has definitely rekindled my confidence in ninety-fo, my pre-contest baby. I honestly thought that we might have been overrating 1991 but was just as high on it as everyone after that R1 performance, which will probably wind up being a mistake. That result can simply be explained by the fact that there is like... no reason for anyone on GameFAQs to vote for a weak NES year over a strong SNES year.

I still think 1991 has a shot next round, but it will be because of the SNES taking center stage (seriously, give it like 4 SNES pics to really hammer that fact home) - NOT because of its games. Last night, I started thinking about how the big 91/94 games rank in power, and I figure it's something like

1. Super Mario World
2. Final Fantasy VI
3. Super Metroid
4. Mega Man X
5. Donkey Kong Country
6. Final Fantasy IV
7. Sonic & Knuckles
8. Sonic the Hedgehog
9. Street Fighter II

A 1991 rep tops the list, but then I have four straight 1994 games before we see another. Long story short - and yes this has been long winded, but I haven't posted in a while and wanted to throw my thoughts out here - 1991 needs the SNES to really sway people.

Also, the higher we talk up 2002, the more we essentially argue that 2006 would have dispatched 2011 (and with room to spare!) with comparable picture placement. 2002 is a somewhat shallow year that's very heavily dependent on its Metroid + KH anchors, and those two are, at best, on even footing with TP + KHII (and 2006 has more depth).

This isn't me being salty anymore - just saying that we're indirectly giving 2006 a LOT of picture allowance.

I'm not convinced Mario World is above FF6. I think 94 looks good and always have.

oh, and I'd certainly take Sonic over DKC

Huh, I just noticed I took '96 over '97 next round.

What in the world was I thinking.

Agreed, but we haven't seen the effect that consoles might have, so I'm giving 1991 a real chance just because of that.

1991 pic rotation

SNES
Super Mario World
NO REALLY, SNES
Final Fantasy II
DID WE MENTION SNES

you guys and your NES and SNES and n64

I don't think the SNES is gonna matter when most of its best games are on the other side of the match

DKC's never gotten a fair chance to show its stuff in these contests, but I'd place it at least a step above DKC2 and was impressed with it in the 2009 contest. It managed to beat Doom in R1 despite LttP there to drain the SNES life force out of the poll.

Is any year going to at least try and hit 40 against 98? Because it looks like nothing will so far.

Well, LttP hit 40% on OoT last contest. If 1992/98 becomes a weird Zelda/Zelda proxy battle then I could see 92 coming out of it mighty respectable.