GameFAQs Contests

Well we even get a match closer than 70-30? Jeez.



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~*Character Contest Histories*~
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~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings (X-Stats) - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.

LPF - Last Place Factor, which a term used in matches that have three or four entrants. Usually when there is an obvious choice for last place, that entrant performs weaker than usual since voters are smart enough these dates to put their votes on something that matters. A good example is Link/Shepard/Draven.

ASV - After school vote, which is usually the biggest trend in a poll other than the first hour and the morning vote.

Is 2000 underperforming? And if so, is it due to the lack of Pokeymanz in the pic? >_>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8q-elxC6gU

today

Five minute X-Stats:

1996 – 50.00%
2006 – 23.94%
1989 – 14.79%
1981 – 12.31%
1983 – 8.96%
1982 – 5.45%

Well, I'm in the 96 > 97 camp, so here's to hoping 96 keeps the pressure on.

With these numbers we might see a stat value under 1%. Has that happened before?

JDPizza posted...

Is 2000 underperforming? And if so, is it due to the lack of Pokeymanz in the pic? >_>

Doubt it. I pegged 2000 at around 60% for this match, so even with the % bleed it will probably wind up around there.

I'm in the 97 > 95 > 96 camp I'm sure it'll happen outside of rallying

I think 62/38 or so is about right for this match. heck, this isn't even peak 2000 here with Diablo 2 and Pokemon skipping the party.

I do have a real fear of early voting in this contest though especially with so many perfects. I feel like we're being set up for a major bracket vote. then again, I also feel like the only people voting are people who have voted in gamefaqs contests for 10 years.

I picked 96 > 97, too.

It'll start to feel like an underperformance the more 2000 drops after that insane board vote, but 1990's not a slouch. This is a fine performance.

2006 v 2011 and 2005 vs 2015 are the ones I think could be close for R1. I even got 2015 beating 2003 (2003 does have some bad stigma attached to it).

SunburstPrism posted...

(2003 does have some bad stigma attached to it).

Final Fantasy X-2?

transience posted...

I think 62/38 or so is about right for this match. heck, this isn't even peak 2000 here with Diablo 2 and Pokemon skipping the party.

I do have a real fear of early voting in this contest though especially with so many perfects. I feel like we're being set up for a major bracket vote. then again, I also feel like the only people voting are people who have voted in gamefaqs contests for 10 years.

I honestly wouldn't be shocked if the Guru cookie ends up being perfect with the way things are going.

I assume he means Wind Waker, but that stigma is long gone.

or maybe he means R/S/E

I also still believe in 96 over 2000 and 97

I think people are too use to seeing blowouts. 2000 is doing fine, 1990 is no 1985 and it isn't completely outclassed.

Also now that we have had enough matches, here are the top 5 stats

Top 5 Biggest Blowouts
1. 1995 – 89.00% vs. 1986 – 11.00% - Round 1 – 78.00%
2. 2005 – 85.53% vs. 1978 – 14.47% - Wildcard – 71.06%
3. 2001 – 83.17% vs. 2014 – 16.83% - Round 1 – 66.34%
4. 2009 – 81.10% vs. 1979 – 18.90% – Wildcard – 62.20%
5. 1997 – 77.25% vs. 1999 – 22.75% - Round 1 – 54.50%

Top 5 Largest Vote Gaps
1. 1995 – 14966 vs. 1986 – 1849 – Round 1 – 13117
2. 2001 – 13966 vs. 2014 – 2826 – Round 1 – 11140
3. 2005 – 12343 vs. 1978 – 2088 – Wildcard – 10255
4. 2009 – 12792 vs. 1979 – 2978 – Wildcard – 9804
5. 1997 – 12363 vs. 1999 – 3640 – Round 1 – 8723

Top 5 Closest Matches
1. 1989 – 69.71% vs. 1983 – 30.29% - Wildcard – 39.42%
2. 2008 – 71.83% vs. 2009 – 28.17% - Round 1 – 43.66%
3. 2006 – 74.29% vs. 1981 – 25.71% - Wildcard – 48.58%
4. 1987 – 74.40% vs. 1985 – 25.60% - Round 1 – 48.80%
5. 2007 – 76.56% vs. 2012 – 23.44% - Round 1 – 53.12%

Top 5 Smallest Vote Gaps
1. 1989 – 10929 vs. 1983 – 4749 – Wildcard – 6180
2. 2008 – 11633 vs. 2009 – 4563 – Round 1 – 7070
3. 2006 – 11158 vs. 1981 – 3862 – Wildcard – 7296
4. 2007 – 11669 vs. 2012 – 3573 – Round 1 – 8096
5. 1987 – 12549 vs. 1985 – 4319 – Round 1 – 8230

Top 5 Most Popular Polls
1. 1987 vs. 1985 – Round 1 – 16868
2. 1995 vs. 1986 – Round 1 – 16815
3. 2001 vs. 2014 – Round 1 – 16792
4. 2008 vs. 2009 – Round 1 – 16196
5. 1997 vs. 1999 – Round 1 – 16003

Top 5 Least Popular Polls
1. 2005 vs. 1978 – Wildcard – 14431
2. 2006 vs. 1981 – Wildcard – 15020
3. 2007 vs. 2012 – Round 1 – 15242
4. 1989 vs. 1983 – Wildcard – 15678
5. 2009 vs. 1979 – Wildcard – 15760

Top 5 Highest Individual Votes
1. 1995 – Round 1 – 14966
2. 2001 – Round 1 – 13966
3. 2009 – Wildcard – 12782
4. 1987 – Round 1 – 12549
5. 1997 – Round 1 – 12363

Top 5 Lowest Individual Votes
1. 1986 – Round 1 – 1849
2. 1978 – Wildcard – 2088
3. 2014 – Round 1 – 2826
4. 1979 – Wildcard – 2978
5. 2012 – Round 1 – 3573

Top 5 Least Impressive Winners
1. 1989 – Wildcard – 10929
2. 2006 – Wildcard – 11158
3. 2008 – Round 1 – 11633
4. 2007 – Round 1 – 11669
5. 2005 – Wildcard – 12343

Top 5 Most Impressive Losers
1. 1983 – Wildcard – 4749
2. 2009 – Round 1 – 4563
3. 1985 – Round 1 – 4319
4. 1981 – Wildcard – 3862
5. 1999 – Round 1 – 3640

Top 5 Most Predictable Matches
1. 1995 vs. 1986 – Round 1 – 88.66%
2. 2009 vs. 1979 – Wildcard – 87.86%
3. 1989 vs. 1983 – Wildcard – 87.35%
4. 2005 vs. 1978 – Wildcard – 85.96%
4. 2001 vs. 2014 – Round 1 – 85.96%

Top 5 Least Predictable Matches
1. 1987 vs. 1985 – Round 1 – 68.16%
2. 2008 vs. 2009 – Round 1 – 71.87%
3. 2007 vs. 2012 – Round 1 – 75.18%
4. 1997 vs. 1999 – Round 1 – 81.06%
5. 2006 vs. 1981 – Wildcard – 83.03%

Yesterday's charts:

Time | 1997 | 1999 | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 77.78% | 22.22% | 234 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 78.63% | 21.37% | 1544 | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 76.97% | 23.03% | 3673 | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 77.44% | 22.56% | 2017 | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 77.73% | 22.27% | 4126 | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 76.36% | 23.64% | 3862 | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 77.34% | 22.66% | 781 | (22:00-24:00)

Time | 2007 | 2012 | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 80.95% | 19.05% | 231 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 78.63% | 21.37% | 1493 | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 76.25% | 23.75% | 3491 | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 77.36% | 22.64% | 1935 | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 76.40% | 23.60% | 3924 | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 75.50% | 24.50% | 3645 | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 77.72% | 22.28% | 754 | (22:00-24:00)

Wind Waker, RSE, X-2, perhaps more. (was Double Dash "hated"?) Nintendo was also going through some weird "gimmick" phase around that time (like late 2002-early 2004).

Sure, there's F-Zero GX, KotOR, SCII, but 2015 had some pretty big stuff also.

Oh right, there was Double Dash, too.

Yeah, 2003 was a weird year for Nintendo at the time, which is why I initially picked 2005 against it, but it seems to have rebounded over time.

that fourpack feels like a trap, mostly because there isn't any good answer.

I don't see how this is an underperformance for 2000 given that it was a fairly debated match!

I gave 1989 a pity vote for DQ1; ouch!

I'm actually getting a little worried about 2005 against 2015. It's not totally reliable, of course, but comparing its performance to the vote-in X-Stats makes it look pretty bad.

Oh nice, 41% update for 1990. Keep chipping away...!

I expected this to be a clear win for 96 but man I'm disappointed in how badly 89 is doing. It was a p good year for gaming imo and I didn't think 96 was this strong that it would be this much of a blowout

too bad so sad 1990

there goes 1990

I'm on the Leaderboard!

but for 1 day only, unless 1990 pulls off a comeback.

Undertale has to make the 2015 picture yeah? Witcher/F4/MGS5/Undertale? maybe Mario Maker?

I could see Bloodborne sneaking in the picture

Is 96/2000 gonna be close? I thought 96 had it easy but I dunno

VeryInsane posted...

I could see Bloodborne sneaking in the picture

Is 96/2000 gonna be close? I thought 96 had it easy but I dunno

Should be a fairly close match, possibly closest in R2

VeryInsane posted...

I could see Bloodborne sneaking in the picture

Is 96/2000 gonna be close? I thought 96 had it easy but I dunno

It will be closer than today. I still put it at around 55-45 for 200.

How can you be so confident when every debatable match has been a doubling or worse.

Has it been said this contest sux yet

cause this contest sux

Impossible to get hype for gaming years, these blowouts are about what I was expecting from it

Leaving Bloodborne out would be a travesty.

spooky96 posted...

How can you be so confident when every debatable match has been a doubling or worse.

Well, we haven't really had a debateable match yet. Today was the closest thing to debateable, but 2000 was still a pretty heavy favourite.

To give you an idea how not debateable it was, more people took 2004 to beat 1994, than people who took 1990 to win today.

It'd be a bit surprising if 2015 didn't have any Nintendo games. Splatoon is reasonably likely too. Maybe Halo 5 for Xbox One representation?

Hmmm, first impressions on the 90/00 match, 00 is doing fine despite not being at it's peak strength (No G/S/C or D2) But 96 is doing well enough that the match next round is still very debatable, if 00 doesn't get it's peak strength in the pictures, I think 96 has the advantage still, could very well come down to the match pic next round on where that result goes.

Here I was thinking a couple of days ago I would give anything to have the 00 > 97 upset now, already have doubts on 97 as it was which before I realised on the match pic format I picked 96 to upset 97, and now felt like 00 could do the same if it beat 96, but have to wait and see still.

OK, now I'm willing to say depth beats top heavy. Not looking good for 1995 backers.

Also 1994>1991 seems a good bet.

2000 is impressing me. It's the favorite over 1996 I think, but 1996 still has a shot.

LeonhartFour posted...

Yesterday's charts:

Time | 1997 | 1999 | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 77.78% | 22.22% | 234 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 78.63% | 21.37% | 1544 | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 76.97% | 23.03% | 3673 | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 77.44% | 22.56% | 2017 | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 77.73% | 22.27% | 4126 | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 76.36% | 23.64% | 3862 | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 77.34% | 22.66% | 781 | (22:00-24:00)

Time | 2007 | 2012 | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 80.95% | 19.05% | 231 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 78.63% | 21.37% | 1493 | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 76.25% | 23.75% | 3491 | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 77.36% | 22.64% | 1935 | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 76.40% | 23.60% | 3924 | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 75.50% | 24.50% | 3645 | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 77.72% | 22.28% | 754 | (22:00-24:00)

LOL at an entrant associated with FF7 doing its best in the Power Hour.

Actually a good sign for 1997, maybe FF7's negatives won't affect it.

Over half the brackets have 1 or less matches wrong. Pretty sad.

Wonder how many perfects we end up with, despite the measly amount of total brackets submitted.

What is the safe pick for next round? 2000>1996?

I'm still not really worried about 2000, even though I feel like I should be.

I think part of the hangup here is that 2000 has quite the diverse selection, but at the cost of its diversity is influence. All of the top games this year are all sequels to stuff from the same generation (Majora, Gold/Silver, FF9, Perfect Dark), which is something to consider when it's going to have to topple those peak years from the 32/64 bit era to have a chance at making a run here.

I feel like Mario 64 could play better against those games than Mario 3, and 1996 has much better depth than 1990 did.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Leaving Bloodborne out would be a travesty.

Looking at 2015's notable games, I think The Witcher 3 and Fallout 4 seem like locks to appear in the match picture rotation. Undertale will probably also appear as well. Since Allen seems to be going with diversity for these match pictures so far, I see Life is Strange being left out to avoid having 2 indie games in the match picture rotation. If Bloodborne appears along with The Witcher 3, Fallout 4, and Undertale, the entire match picture rotation would consist of RPGs, so I could see Bloodborne being left out in favor of MGSV.

Safer_777 posted...

What is the safe pick for next round? 2000>1996?

The guru is 55%-42% on 1996, so I don't think there is a safe pick.

LusterSoldier posted...

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Leaving Bloodborne out would be a travesty.

Looking at 2015's notable games, I think The Witcher 3 and Fallout 4 seem like locks to appear in the match picture rotation. Undertale will probably also appear as well. Since Allen seems to be going with diversity for these match pictures so far, I see Life is Strange being left out to avoid having 2 indie games in the match picture rotation. If Bloodborne appears along with The Witcher 3, Fallout 4, and Undertale, the entire match picture rotation would consist of RPGs, so I could see Bloodborne being left out in favor of MGSV.

Bloodborne is the best game from 2015 and one of the 10 best games ever made. I haven't played Dark Souls 3 yet but it's probably the best game in that series, too. It's the closest you'll get to a perfect video game in the modern era.

LusterSoldier posted...

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Leaving Bloodborne out would be a travesty.

Looking at 2015's notable games, I think The Witcher 3 and Fallout 4 seem like locks to appear in the match picture rotation. Undertale will probably also appear as well. Since Allen seems to be going with diversity for these match pictures so far, I see Life is Strange being left out to avoid having 2 indie games in the match picture rotation. If Bloodborne appears along with The Witcher 3, Fallout 4, and Undertale, the entire match picture rotation would consist of RPGs, so I could see Bloodborne being left out in favor of MGSV.

Life is Strange is not an indie game.

LeonhartFour posted...

I'm actually getting a little worried about 2005 against 2015. It's not totally reliable, of course, but comparing its performance to the vote-in X-Stats makes it look pretty bad.

I been getting more and more uneasy on this match the closer it gets, I did take 05 in the end but had this nagging feeling that 15 might be able to do something, even without a rally and if it really close, even a small rally spike could be enough to pull it over. 05 could really be weak enough to drop it here.

But given the nature of the results so far, probably ends up being a blowout in favour of 05 lol

My big upset is 2000 > 1997, so guess I gotta hope it gains GSC and D2 for the pics there!

It's pretty unfortunate how important pics are for this format, and how our closest match so far is a mere doubling. I'd rather have character or game contests ruined by rallying than this boring s***.

Yeah I gotta say that somehow Allen was able to pull off we never dreamed of, a contest worse than Rivals 2011.