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Blowout city

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~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings (X-Stats) - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.

LPF - Last Place Factor, which a term used in matches that have three or four entrants. Usually when there is an obvious choice for last place, that entrant performs weaker than usual since voters are smart enough these dates to put their votes on something that matters. A good example is Link/Shepard/Draven.

ASV - After school vote, which is usually the biggest trend in a poll other than the first hour and the morning vote.

Is 1986 actually nearly as weak as 1970s years?

Even the mid 2000s barely got 80% on them

*glances at bracket*

oh huh i took 1987.

I'm assuming I looked at the notable games and went "ZeldaFEAR let's go. oh an some other big names too." Genuinely couldn't remember what I took when I looked at the matches today with SMB headlining 1985.

get to chill on the leaderboard for another day~

although i must have messed up somewhere because my tiebreaker shows as 0 so lol

what a crazy blowout from '87... this confirms either

1. heavy SFF between close years/generation
2. depth matters a lot

either explanation means '98 is probably even more dominant now

pjbasis posted...

Is 1986 actually nearly as weak as 1970s years?

Even the mid 2000s barely got 80% on them

It's got way more in common with those 70s years than it does 85 or 87. Wasn't there a list of all the NES releases on NA in 86 posted in one of these topics and it was just ridiculously barren?

Yeah now that I think of it my 1995 pick in the finals is looking disastrous.

Great to see CT with a blowout win.

Holy crap 1987. I was sort of tempted to take 1985 due to the second match curse and all that. So glad I stuck with 1987.

Lol I guessed this was going to be a blowout, so I went high in the oracle. Just wasn't sure what side would win the blowout.

Glad I trust in Zelda.

Honestly though, 1987 just looks better.

I don't like what this says about my 1991 > 1994 pick tho.

In picsmiths I'll have to trust.

CHRONO.

MOTHER.

f***ING.

TRIGGER.

1995 blowing out 2001 here we come.

UltimaterializerX posted...

CHRONO.

MOTHER.

f***ING.

TRIGGER.

1995 blowing out 2001 here we come.

is that what you take out of this? any year could put on 80%+ against 1986

haloiscoolisbak posted...

UltimaterializerX posted...

CHRONO.

MOTHER.

f***ING.

TRIGGER.

1995 blowing out 2001 here we come.

is that what you take out of this? any year could put on 80%+ against 1986

People said this about Ratchet and Clank last time.

Anyone could have invented Uber. Anyone could have been Amazon and delivered products to people without the in store shopping. Means nothing without someone actually doing it.

CT/1995 was lucky enough to draw what is objectively the weakest year in the contest

UItimaterializer posted...

People said this about Ratchet and Clank last time.

if they did they shouldn't have

I didn't know that 1985 vs 1987 was a toss up. One of them has a Zelda game.

While it's hard to conclude a lot from this match, today pretty well suggests "weaker" system releases don't matter now. The NES was huge, yes, but also it's not one of the top-tier systems here. Even with the famous launch-combo of SMB and Duck Hunt, mentioning the NES here has not helped 1985 in a significant way.

There's a lot of doubt on systems in general now after this kind of result, but I'll be looking for them in three other scenarios:

1) Our top-tier systems in action: 1991's SNES and 2000's PS2.
2) Our higher-tier systems with stronger launch games: 1991's SMW, 1996's SM64, 2001's SSBM (I'm counting it) which also has Halo for another legendary launch game, and 2006's LoZ:TP which the jury is out on so far.
3) Systems making it into match pics, which may not even happen.

In round 1 people thought Ratchet and Clank: UYA was weaker relative to 2010. It wasn't until the second round that people thought Chrono Trigger was stronger.

Based on our expectation (which is based on no evidence) 1995 is doing as expected so whatever expectation you had pre-contest remains.

If consoles were to have an effect I feel Nintendo systems will get the smallest boost. If you loved the SNES you were probably going to vote for Super Mario World already.

On the other end the Playstations should get the largest boost since their launch year was terrible.

However, I feel console launches will take a backseat to years with games from that console as we are seeing here. 1991 won't get a boost against 1994 or 1995 against 1997.

Safer_777 posted...

I didn't know that 1985 vs 1987 was a toss up. One of them has a Zelda game.

SMB has beaten LoZ twice. What has given 1987 such a huge lead is depth. This shows a top game cannot beat a whole lineup of good games.

Killing my bracket in the process. Rest in peace, 1985. :(

charmander6000 posted...

If consoles were to have an effect I feel Nintendo systems will get the smallest boost. If you loved the SNES you were probably going to vote for Super Mario World already.

On the other end the Playstations should get the largest boost since their launch year was terrible.

However, I feel console launches will take a backseat to years with games from that console as we are seeing here. 1991 won't get a boost against 1994 or 1995 against 1997.

Interesting point. '95 is looking great today and the Playstation happens to be there in this year it's whipping an older year. It would also do well against our newer years too, like 2001 onward. The idea that a Playstation 1-boost could be negated by other years with notable PS1 games sounds possible...curious to see how that works or if it'll have better evidence to support this later.

what's the most likely four games that 01 will get?

Halo, FFX, Melee, GTA3

it's gotta be these, right? maybe something like PSO or SA2 if SB wants to get the GC represented (and dropping probably FFX given how enormous GTA3 was?) I don't think we'll ever see 2001 without Halo.

85 really should be winning. I get most of these contests will be judged by the games, but 85 was basically the rebirth of console gaming in the US with the release of the NES....

transcience posted...

what's the most likely four games that 01 will get?

Halo, FFX, Melee, GTA3

it's gotta be these, right? maybe something like PSO or SA2 if SB wants to get the GC represented (and dropping probably FFX given how enormous GTA3 was?) I don't think we'll ever see 2001 without Halo.

(Metal Gear Solid 2)

Melee, FFX and Halo are guaranteed (well FFX is 80-90% given all the PS2 games), GTA3 and Silent Hill 2 are listed in the notable games list while MGS2 and Sonic Adventure 2 are other possible choices

MGS2 is certainly notable to us but consider how Allen structured 1995.

it won't matter this round but I wonder what the big rounds will end up looking like. you know 97 will get a PC game or 2000 will get a Deus Ex.

2001's games:

Golden Sun
The Bouncer
Gran Turismo 3
Pikmin

SBAllen seems to be going for a diverse set up so we could also see

PC - Max Payne, Civilization III
GBA - Golden Sun, Advance Wars
N64 - Paper Mario, Conker's Bad Fur Day
Dreamcast - Sonic Adventure 2, Phantasy Star Online

Playstation 2 has many other options as already noted.

LeonhartFour (Topic Creator)13 hours ago#487
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Heh, looks like my prediction of 1987 being the Majora's Mask of this contest is coming true. Feelin real good about the 1987 > 1995 upset.



what does that even mean

The dark horse that noone on Board 8 sees coming, but propels me to Guru championdom

On the down side, today does not bode well for 1991. 1994/1991 is almost an identical style of matchup to 1987/1985. Here's hoping the Mario/Sonic combo'd with the most powerful console is enough to overcome the stellar lineup of 1994.

1991 is more than just Super Mario World. It has FFIV, Sonic 1, Street Fighter II, though I’m happy that I went with 1994.

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

The dark horse that noone on Board 8 sees coming, but propels me to Guru championdom

It was a great win for you but 30% of Gurus did have MM. It wasn't a Knuckles > Magus upset or anything.

The Mana Sword posted...

2001's games:

Golden Sun
The Bouncer
Gran Turismo 3
Pikmin

i forgot about those. 2001 was a crazy year for gaming.

So are we expecting 2008 to soundly beat 2009 tmrw? I haven't seen much discussion about that one.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

The dark horse that noone on Board 8 sees coming, but propels me to Guru championdom

It was a great win for you but 30% of Gurus did have MM. It wasn't a Knuckles > Magus upset or anything.

Try 13% that had MM getting to the semifinals. And of that 13%, only my bracket was in contention.

ffmasterjose posted...

So are we expecting 2008 to soundly beat 2009 tmrw? I haven't seen much discussion about that one.

Pretty much. I would take MGS4, Brawl, Fallout 3 and GTA4 over anything in 2009, let alone all 4 of them combined.

2013 is gonna beat 2003, isn't it?

There goes bracket.

I'm not sure if 2013 has a single game I'd take to definitively beat KotOR, which isn't even 2003's anchor. Wind Waker + KotOR power duo should be more than enough there.

2013 is pretty weak, so 2003 should be safe in that match.

The following round, however...!

so 2008/2009 will likely be our first close-ish match?

Doubt it, 2008 should crush 2009!

I feel Brawl will have retain most of its strength despite not making the 2015 contest, but even if it dropped as badly as MGS4 2008 should win, 2009 is that weak.

Edit: Though technically it may be our closest match so far...

NowItsAngeTime posted...

so 2008/2009 will likely be our first close-ish match?

If 2008 falls below a doubling I will be shocked

I went with 2008 because of its depth. I think people still appreciate Fallout 3! Add in MGS4 and Brawl and it felt comfortable.

I feel like 2000/1990 will be the first match to go below a 60-40, but even then I don't think it will ever be close enough to be interesting. Beyond that, the only other round 1 match I see even getting close to a 60-40 is 2015/2005

Harrich is on to something. Systems night not matter much.

transcience posted...

what's the most likely four games that 01 will get?

Halo, FFX, Melee, GTA3

it's gotta be these, right? maybe something like PSO or SA2 if SB wants to get the GC represented (and dropping probably FFX given how enormous GTA3 was?) I don't think we'll ever see 2001 without Halo.

Those 4 look right to me. I could see GSC replacing Melee though

UltimaterializerX posted...

Harrich is on to something. Systems night not matter much.

Ya, I kind of figured the impact would be minimal because of the SFF aspect Harrich mentioned. The only year I really factored it in was 1991. 1994 should be the stronger year, but something just seems off about that matchup. I have a feeling that will be our out-of-left-field upset of the contest.

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

transcience posted...

what's the most likely four games that 01 will get?

Halo, FFX, Melee, GTA3

it's gotta be these, right? maybe something like PSO or SA2 if SB wants to get the GC represented (and dropping probably FFX given how enormous GTA3 was?) I don't think we'll ever see 2001 without Halo.

Those 4 look right to me. I could see GSC replacing Melee though

Isnt GSC 2000?

Justin2Krelian posted...

85 really should be winning. I get most of these contests will be judged by the games, but 85 was basically the rebirth of console gaming in the US with the release of the NES....

Agreed. I picked '87 anyway because of the games' line-up, but objectively this is correct.

On the other hand, '87 saw the birth of tons of renowned franchises very relevant to this day.