GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1261
charmander6000 posted... If you want to make RE4 stronger just make MGS2=SotC, it accurately predicted MGS3/MGS Doesn't SotC beat MGS2 with 52%? Did I miscalculate? Or are you basically saying RE4 should be closer to MGS3? That's possible. Dang, if MGS3 = RE4, , that would make the argument stronger about RE4 being constant. --- Congrats to DpOblivion, blasting me into oblivion in Best. Game. Ever. 2015. |
It could also be that MGS3 overperformed on SMRPG, at least that match had spillover from Undertale --- Congrats to DpObliVion for winning the guru. |
I dunno, SMRPG seems like it would be the spillover beneficiary --- Ralliers' determination can't even hold a birthday candle to the blazing flame of DpOblivion's winning spirit! |
MGS3 was a newer game so it would be more likely that Tumblr people have played it, but the Mario name does go a long way. We are talking about a couple or so percent points though. --- Congrats to DpObliVion for winning the guru. |
I think the fraction of Tumblr people that played either is probably not that high --- Ralliers' determination can't even hold a birthday candle to the blazing flame of DpOblivion's winning spirit! |
The
newness of the game doesn't matter. Nowadays with how accessible
everything is, it's pretty easy to find ways to play SMRPG, legal or
illegal. --- DpObliVion, my hat is off to you. Welcome to the Guru Champions Club lol xstats |
charmander6000 posted... It could also be that MGS3 overperformed on SMRPG, at least that match had spillover from Undertale That's what I'm thinking, too, though it's hard to prove. All we know is that rally spillover (heavily?) favored Melee over SMRPG. Certainly not the opposite. There's just no way RE4 is farther away from MGS3 than the matches already suggest. Speaking of rally voters, why is it that LttP/Majora's Mask had such erratic trends, while every other spillover match behaved much more normally? --- Congrats to DpOblivion, blasting me into oblivion in Best. Game. Ever. 2015. |
I
think it's probably a combination of Tumblr having a very different
preference from Gamefaqs in that match (which makes sense given how old
LttP is) and that Undertale voters were starting to really come to the
match by themselves by Melee/UT --- Ralliers' determination can't even hold a birthday candle to the blazing flame of DpOblivion's winning spirit! |
Yeah,
Majora/LTTP was probably a unique case because it was a same-series
matchup for a series that Tumblr loves and probably skews toward 3-D
Zelda because of the age difference. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif What DpOblivion did to me in the Guru Contest, in GIF form |
Tumblr
at every single step of the way, without exception, favored Nintendo
over any and all challengers. If there was any beneficiary of spillover
it was SMRPG - guaranteed. That being said, the trends of SMRPG/MGS3 suggest the effect of spillover was minimal. --- Welcome to the League of Antivotes. |
What is really strange is that OOT/LTTP, one round later, displayed no real spillover trends at all. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
Trends aside, I think it's pretty obvious OoT overperformed in that match - or at the least, SFFed LttP. Yeah, I'm pretty confident LttP beats FF7 cleanly. --- Welcome to the League of Antivotes. |
red sox 777 posted... What is really strange is that OOT/LTTP, one round later, displayed no real spillover trends at all. Probably because Tumblr favored OoT over LTTP like us, unlike MM/LTTP the round before. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif What DpOblivion did to me in the Guru Contest, in GIF form |
Karma Hunter posted... Tumblr at every single step of the way, without exception, favored Nintendo over any and all challengers. If there was any beneficiary of spillover it was SMRPG - guaranteed. Yeah, I think people are a little freaked over SMW vs Animal Crossing to see that Tumblr likes Mario, just not as much as other Nintendo things. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! DpObliVion is the new greatone. Congratulations to our Guru overlord. |
I think it's far more likely that SMRPG overperformed on RE4 than MGS3 overperformed on SMRPG --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Karma Hunter posted... Trends aside, I think it's pretty obvious OoT overperformed in that match - or at the least, SFFed LttP. Was making a top 50 yesterday and I have LttP right above FF7. 6th and 7th spot respectively. --- Congratulations to DpObliVion, the 2k15 BGE Guru champ! |
It's
still awful strange that SMRPG can only manage 52% on MGS3 despite
supposedly benefitting from 20,000 extra votes. Maybe SMRPG wasn't that
strong after all and RE4 really sucks, I dunno! I think it's far more likely that SMRPG overperformed on RE4 than MGS3 overperformed on SMRPG Yeah, there's certainly that possibility. Number crunching aside, all of SMRPG's performances seem pretty consistent except against RE4. Yeah, I'm pretty confident LttP beats FF7 cleanly. I never actually thought about how FF7 vs. LttP would go, strangely enough. Without applying x-stats....eh, OoT probably gets 56% on FF7 without outside votes. LttP/OoT is harder to guess...obviously a few points closer than 60/40. Assuming GotD-constant Melee and using the registered vote proportion in FF7 vs. Melee, FF7's x-stat is at 56.40%. LInk to the Past needs to beat Majora's Mask (assuming it's at its GotD level; I wager it's a little weaker) with at least 56ish% to go even with FF7. LttP would get at least that much on a normal day. Also consider that FF7 probably does better with non-registered votes than those registered. In the end I can't make a confident decision. I wonder how many registered votes we get on debatable matches now on an average contest match? Back in 2004 it was like 30-40% of total voters, if I remember correctly. The percentage must be a lot higher now. --- Congrats to DpOblivion, blasting me into oblivion in Best. Game. Ever. 2015. (edited 12/19/2015 10:06:42 PM)report |
Votes are pathetic now. Makes sense. --- Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing? 124 Gurus were better than me in BGE 2015 contest! But the best of all was DpObliVion! Congrats! |
It's
still awful strange that SMRPG can only manage 52% on MGS3 despite
supposedly benefitting from 20,000 extra votes. Maybe SMRPG wasn't that
strong after all and RE4 really sucks, I dunno! After seeing the rest of the contest play out, I think this is the most likely case. RE4 has no reason to have stayed strong and relevant, so it being a step down from where it was in previous contests makes perfect sense to me. That's why I'm opposed to arbitrarily giving it a 4% boost in the adjusted X-Stats. --- DpObliVion, my hat is off to you. Welcome to the Guru Champions Club lol xstats |
BT may actually have a point, it does kinda feel like RE4 is slowly fading away. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
LinkMarioSamus posted... BT may actually have a point, it does kinda feel like RE4 is slowly fading away. That's probably because the games following it are complete garbage, and RE4 tends to take the brunt of that blame for 'casualizing/actionizing' its series. That, and it isn't quite in that sweetspot of being old enough to be nostalgic for this site's userbase, or new enough to still be relevant. --- Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses |
Hey RE 5 and RE 6 are good if you play online with a friend! But only that. --- Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing? 124 Gurus were better than me in BGE 2015 contest! But the best of all was DpObliVion! Congrats! |
I
wonder if people are following series and letting it affect their
thoughts on their games more than they have before. People aren't happy
about the directions Call of Duty and Assassin's Creed have gone, so
we're seen CoD4 and AC2 drop big time. We've also seen a variation of
this with Metroid and Mega Man that boosts instead of hurts, where they
seem to have some of their best matches after their companies resist
giving them the type of games their fanbase is looking for. With Resident Evil, RE5 didn't look too bad in the GotD-contest. Sure, it was the Ultimate Loser, but RE5 < ToS < GoW < HL2 < MP < FO3 < SSBB < LoZ:MM were all close matches and RE5 took second place in a vote-in. RE4 looked fine that contest too. RE6 is the potential culprit since then though -- that game had so much backlash and reemphasized the change of direction the series was taking. If that affected people's view of the series, that would make sense that RE4 was hurt. RE5 failed to make it into this contest too...but it needed a vote-in for GotD, so being snubbed here doesn't tell us much. I don't think RE1 or RE2 fell out of line from my expectations, but the RE-fandom has an interesting divide for its games before and after RE4. Like I mentioned with Metroid and Mega Man earlier, old-school RE-fans don't feel like Capcom is tailored to them in the same way anymore, so it's possible they maintained their respect in the face of new RE-games losing respect. --- DpObliVion wins the contest and fills you with determination. My bracket had a bad time. |
I once suggested that RE4's popularity seemed to start declining after RE6 came out and was laughed at. Makes sense from a character battle perspective too, since Leon did worse against Gordon Freeman in 2013 than he did in 2005 and got completely murdered in the divisional final. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
Revelations games are really good. I suggest you play them if you like RE series. --- Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing? 124 Gurus were better than me in BGE 2015 contest! But the best of all was DpObliVion! Congrats! |
Safer_777 posted... Votes are pathetic now. Makes sense. It didn't take too long to get a poll with less than 20000 votes after the contest ended. We started the contest off-season with 3 polls above 20000 votes before yesterday's poll got under 20000 votes. It's still early, but today's poll looks to also be on track for less than 20000 votes. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as DpObliVion, Guru Champ! |
RE4
is slowly fading away because RE in general has been irrelevant for
quite some time. I haven't played either Revelations titles yet but the
fact that the 2 most acclaimed entries in the last few years of the
franchise are: a) a portable spin-off entry and b)an episodic sequel to
said spin-off entry should say a lot about where the franchise is
headed. Unless the RE2 remake does some wonders I don't expect this
downard spiral to stop anytime soon. The MGS series will probably suffer from a similar drop in the future (you could argue it already did) now that the franchise is doomed to Konami hell. (edited 12/20/2015 9:58:16 PM)report |
Hope RE 7 manages to make things right. --- Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing? 124 Gurus were better than me in BGE 2015 contest! But the best of all was DpObliVion! Congrats! |
Jim Sterling gave Undertale GOTY award. Along with others too. Strangely not MGS 5 or Witcher 3. --- Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing? 124 Gurus were better than me in BGE 2015 contest! But the best of all was DpObliVion! Congrats! |
Well it was voted best game ever by GameFAQs so it must be good. Though in all honesty Undertale will easily win best new IP or best indie game awards and will likely get a few GotY awards. --- Congrats to DpObliVion for winning the guru. |
I doubt Undertale ends up in the top 10 of the only GotY list that matters, the Giant Bomb GotY --- DpObliVion, my hat is off to you. Welcome to the Guru Champions Club lol xstats |
Polls for the next several days: 12/22/2015 - I don't know. Probably an original poll idea. 12/23/2015 - How much of your holiday shopping are you doing online this year? 12/24/2015 - I don't know. Probably an original poll idea. 12/25/2015 - What did you get for Christmas (or another December holiday)? 12/26/2015 - Got 3DS? 12/27/2015 - Got Vita? 12/28/2015 - Got PlayStation 4? 12/29/2015 - Got Xbox One? 12/30/2015 - Got Wii U? 12/31/2015 - Got Smartphone? --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as DpObliVion, Guru Champ! (edited 12/21/2015 8:58:39 PM)report |
So, Super Mario RPG is coming to Wii U Virtual Console this week. Hey Europe, that's your cue. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! DpObliVion is the new greatone. Congratulations to our Guru overlord. |
I
just heard about that very recently, before you even posted that in
this topic. I don't think it's going to do anything for the game's
strength in Europe, since it had been previously released on the Wii
Virtual Console and it did not help out the game's strength in Europe. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as DpObliVion, Guru Champ! (edited 12/21/2015 10:23:55 PM)report |
I guess we're back to needing to bump this every other day. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif What DpOblivion did to me in the Guru Contest, in GIF form |
I had a list of games I asked to rank based on contest strength but I forgot some of them. Here's what I remember: Resident Evil 4 Shadow of the Colossus Super Mario Galaxy StarCraft Final Fantasy Tactics --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
Anyone work out the stats? --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
creativename posted... Anyone work out the stats? Still working on it! Adjusted Division 8 Stats: Metal Gear Solid 3 - 50 Metal Gear Solid - 49.99 Shadow of the Colossus - 46.430712 Bioshock - 44.7 Mass Effect 2 - 39.36 Starcraft - 38.478336 Earthbound - 39.652068 Read Dead Redemption - 37.85960256 Silent Hill 2 - 34.48158 Borderlands 2 - 32.81605148 Mother 3 - 30.5 Bayonetta 2 - 27.26648577 Team Fortress 2 - 25.36045489 Splatoon - 20.93 Destiny - 19.63164703 Virtue's Last Reward - 16.468224 Set MGS1 as being extremely close to MGS3. Funny thing is, it wasn't even arbitrary - MGS1's match against SotC projected it to have a 50.01% win over MGS3. The two games seem virtually even in intrinsic strength, but MGS3 won the fanbase battle. I also gave Bioshock 44.7% against MGS3. That's what the GotD stats says it would get, and we're in general agreement that the double western game rallies going on for Starcraft and Mass Effect 2 hurt MGS3 during its match against Bioshock, so it seems about right. It also supports MGS1=MGS3, as the projected GotD values for Shadow of the Colossus vs. Bioshock line up perfectly after all the adjustments are made. Everything preeetty much checks out. MGS3 vs. Mass Effect 2 might be an overperformance but it also might not be. Starcraft got destroyed back in 2009. Will have to see how the final stats look - if Mass Effect 2 ends up well below Mass Effect 1 then maybe some change will need to be made. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. (edited 12/24/2015 5:55:13 PM)report |
Good gravy. I'm trying to adjust Division 4 right now and it's simply impossible. Every one of Skyrim's matches paints a completely different picture of strength. tumblr spillover messed with that so bad. Through Phoenix Wright, Skyrim gets 35.77% against 2010 MM Through Goldeneye, Skyrim gets 48.8% against 2010 MM Through Metroid Prime, Skyrim gets 43.91% against 2010 MM. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. (edited 12/24/2015 6:45:42 PM)report |
Adjusted Division 4 Stats Super Mario 64 - 50 Zelda: Twilight Princess - 43.16 The Elder Scrolls: Skyrim - 41.623504 Metroid Prime - 40.00932 Half-Life 2 - 36.008388 Goldeneye - 35.79621344 Final Fantasy Tactics - 33.77 Diablo II - 32.447688 Persona 4 - 29.978936 Morrowind - 29.53488002 Resident Evil 2 - 28.515388 Phoenix Wright - 27.78785127 Demon's Souls - 25.99805614 Skies of Arcadia - 23.876112 Mario Kart 8 - 19.96 Nine Hours, Nine Persons, Nine Doors - 13.31064758 This is a mess. Probably shouldn't trust these stats. Here's the best I could come up with: 1. TP is constant. It proved this by scoring against Skies of Arcadia what it was supposed to according to Game of the Decade stats. 2. TP was not SFFd by Super Mario 64. SM64 has shown itself to be just a little weaker than LTTP in polls like: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3503-contest-quarterfinal-zelda-lttp-ff3-ff7-s-mario-64 LTTP vs. MM intrinsically is 55-45. So the SM64 vs. TP result actually lines up perfectly with stats. 3. Skyrim's matches against Phoenix Wright and SM64 are being thrown out. The first had tumblr very obviously favoring PW1 by a LOT, and the second had 2/3 of our voters being tumblr people. The Goldeneye and Metroid Prime matches are much more accurate and paint a clearer picture. 4. And the picture they paint is this: Skyrim is probably right around Fallout 3's 2010 strength. It's actually projected to be quite a bit higher through Diablo II, but I think tumblr overrated Goldeneye a bit vs. Diablo II and then overrated Skyrim a bit vs. Goldeneye. Depending on how much wiggle room you give the tumblr spillover there, Skyrim is probably actually stronger than Fallout 3 was, but too much stronger and it goes above Twilight Princess which I don't think most people here would take it over. So for the sake of ease and sanity, it's set to Fallout 3 level. 5. Metroid Prime is set to its 2010 level. I don't think it got any stronger, honestly. It underperformed in Round 1 and I doubt tumblr goes for Morrowind over a Nintendo game. This does make the Half-Life 2 match really ridiculous, but that one is ridiculous no matter what you do. 6. Half-Life 2...dropped, I guess? Its match against Metroid Prime is weird because the match was looking close after their respective Round 1 performances. Half-Life 2 was was even projected to win! It loses even without tumblr, but still, yikes. Going to set HL2 to 45% against MP1 in a no-tumblr match and call it a day. 7. I'm leaving Phoenix Wright as-is because I don't know what to do with that one and we need to have more x-stats where Wrighto is overrated. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Metroid
Prime has an argument of being stronger thanks to Super Metroid proving
to be stronger now. That's not necessarily accurate and I wasn't
impressed with HL1 or HL2, but I didn't expect MP to stomp HL2 or
compete with Skyrim either. MERRY CHRISTMAS AND HAPPY HOLIDAYS!!! --- DpObliVion wins the contest and fills you with determination. My bracket had a bad time. |
Adjusted Division 3 Stats: Pokemon RBY- 50 Super Mario World - 49 Super Mario Bros. 3 - 48.5 Fallout 3 - 39.3078 Final Fantasy VIII - 35.28 Tetris - 31.66 Mass Effect 3 - 30.7386996 GTA: Vice City - 29.6352 Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - 28.75 Portal 2 - 26.92725 Uncharted 2 - 21.85 Undertale - 21.40702788 Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 15.68 Age of Empires II - 15.3551 Life is Strange - 14.936964 The Walking Dead - 14.47344 1. Set Undertale to 27.37% on Fallout 3 and 35% against Mass Effect 3, as it's about what it had on those games before rallying took hold. 2. Set Sonic 2 to 28.75% against RBY. That's about what it had before tumblr showed up in force and that's really the best we can do for it. 3. Set SMB3 to 48.5% against RBY. The Undertale match on the same day definitely decided that one, but before the rally took off, RBY was slowly pulling away. Given these games' similar trends, I don't think RBY would have lost, but it would've been decently close. 4. Set Uncharted 2 to 38% against Sonic 2, based on how it was doing against Sonic 2 before the rally took off. 5. Vice City set to 42% against FF8. Pre-rally number, ect. 6. Speaking of which, Vice City is pretty much the only reliable base to use for adjusting the bottom half. And it's not very reliable because it's 2010 xstat value is very off! It finished well below every other GTA game and underrated the hell out of Silent Hill 2. Maybe it was weirdo-SFFd by RE4? I don't know. GTA games are weird. Regardless, I went back and got some 2009 stats and found its about equal to 34% against 2010 MM. Used that to adjust a lot of values in the division (like FF8 and SMW) and it worked very well, actually. 7. FF8 set to 36% against SMW. Undertale strikes again! 8. Animal Crossing set to 16% against SMW. Yeah. 9. Life is Strange set to 19% against Fallout 3. Yeah. 10. Gave Fallout 3 its GotD value to make things easier. 11. Set Super Mario World to 49% on RBY. This...isn't set in stone, actually. There's only two things I can base this off of: first, SMW appeared ever so slightly stronger than SMB3 back in 2009. Next is a poll from freaking 2004: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1638-division-16-round-2-sonic-the-hedgehog-2-vs-super-mario RBY seemed to outdo that by a bit, so...it's probably stronger? Unfortunately RBY's half of the division had no good bases to use. Also, side note: did a lot of general stats digging, too much to list, but from what I could tell: LTTP = SMW >= SM64 = SMB3 With extremely thin margins between each game. Essentially, they're the same strengths and it wouldn't take much to flip those inequalities at all. Even if RBY tops that list, it will also be by a razor thin margin. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
HaRRicH posted... Metroid Prime has an argument of being stronger thanks to Super Metroid proving to be stronger now. That's not necessarily accurate and I wasn't impressed with HL1 or HL2, but I didn't expect MP to stomp HL2 or compete with Skyrim either. I think that the Prime/Super Metroid boost probably happened from 2009 to 2010. Prime did noticetably better in 2010 than it did in 2009...remember when this happened? http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3467-division-6-round-1-gtavc-k-hearts-metroid-prime-paper-mario But yes, it is possible, just too much of a headache to think about and if MP has boosted even a bit than Morrowind looks really damn good for some reason. Although I guess that didn't stop Demon Souls from looking really bad...poor Demon Souls. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Oblivion looks good so why not Morrowind? I think Prime never increased in strength from '09, GTA and KH were simply more popular then. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
In fact, based on my adjustments so far, here's what those four games are projected to get against 2010 MM: SMW: 55.54% SMB3: 55.09% LTTP: 55.03% SM64: 53.9% And that's after having to adjust out the nose to deal with rallies and stuff! They're all very close. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. (edited 12/25/2015 1:08:29 AM)report |
KamikazePotato posted... 3. Set SMB3 to 48.5% against RBY. The Undertale match on the same day definitely decided that one, but before the rally took off, RBY was slowly pulling away. Given these games' similar trends, I don't think RBY would have lost, but it would've been decently close. I would have gone with SMB3 at 48% against RBY instead of 48.5%. The trends for both games would have been similar, although RBY should have the better night vote due to Asia and also due to the NES not being as popular in Europe compared to North America. This means that NES games in general will have a below average night vote. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as DpObliVion, Guru Champ! |
KamikazePotato posted... In fact, based on my adjustments so far, here's what those four games are projected to get against 2010 MM: TBH I have a hard time imagining any Mario game upending LTTP. Then again that also means that Super Metroid is close to them in strength (indirectly?). Then again why not? Does Super Metroid 60-40 Prime at this point? I would think Prime at least 55-45's Galaxy. Considering the raw x-stats have Mario 64 getting just a little over 60% on Prime (yuck)...guess Prime and Galaxy are on the same level, and I dunno what to think of that. Also what are the adjusted x-stats for RE4's division? --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil (edited 12/25/2015 4:09:07 AM)report |
KamikazePotato posted... Adjusted Division 3 Stats: If you're including 2004 stats in your adjustments, why not use SMB3/CT and SMW/CT from 2004, which puts SMB3 a clear step up from SMW? --- DpObliVion, my hat is off to you. Welcome to the Guru Champions Club lol xstats |
With
the year of the SNES and all I'd be surprised to see 3 > World
(though I guess we really have no other reference to the NES this year). --- Ralliers' determination can't even hold a birthday candle to the blazing flame of DpOblivion's winning spirit! |
This
was actually the Year of the Game Boy, Pokemon would've won if ease if
it wasn't crushed by the Year of the Rallied Indie PC Games. --- Got wrecked in the Guru by the dastardly DpObliVion! |
