GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1261
KamikazePotato posted... _SecretSquirrel posted...So, the Prime vs. Half-Life 2 sequel this year. Was that all spillover, or did Half-Life 2 like drop a bit as well? I think HL2 dropped more than anything. PC games don't have the same timeless quality as console games do, especially on GameFAQs --- DpObliVion, my hat is off to you. Welcome to the Guru Champions Club lol xstats |
Team Rocket Elite posted... BlAcK TuRtLe posted...There was a Resident Evil 5? There was a Resident Evil 6? --- DpObliVion, my hat is off to you. Welcome to the Guru Champions Club lol xstats |
KamikazePotato posted... _SecretSquirrel posted...So, the Prime vs. Half-Life 2 sequel this year. Was that all spillover, or did Half-Life 2 like drop a bit as well? I think that one is going to be interesting because that's probably the best lead on figuring out other spillover results, like Skyrim vs. Goldeneye. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! DpObliVion is the new greatone. Congratulations to our Guru overlord. |
foxhead84 posted... I know that character =\= game but in the next character battle, how far do you take Crono. Witch noble 9ers can he beat He can probably beat Sonic at this point. Any goodwill Sega earned for Colors and Generations was destroyed by Sonic Boom. Oh, Sonic will still cruise through fodder and midcarders no problem, but I don't think he'll ever beat a Noble Niner again. --- Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses |
Vayu_The_End posted... ...Is FF7 going to get a cut sometime soon? FFVII did get 2 cuts overnight, although those updates haven't been added yet. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as DpObliVion, Guru Champ! |
Should have been CT vs FF7 or FF7 vs FF6. FF6 is better than CT but that one is a very close match. CT would demolish FF7. --- Gamertag: Kegfarms, BF code: 2033480226, Treasure Cruise code 318,374,355 |
Revelation34 posted... Should have been CT vs FF7 or FF7 vs FF6. FF6 is better than CT but that one is a very close match. CT would demolish FF7. We already got FF7 vs. FF6 though. As rally tainted as it was, there is no indication that FF6 could win a rematch. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! DpObliVion is the new greatone. Congratulations to our Guru overlord. |
Final Fantasy X 49.89% Final Fantasy IX 42.89% http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6155-best-game-ever-day-29-round-3-zelda-ocarina-of-time-vs-final http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6147-best-game-ever-day-25-round-3-chrono-trigger-vs-final Bump FF9 up a point to 44.89% BaseMM and assume it over performed by 1 percentage point. Ocarina of Time - 64.47% BaseMM Bump FF10 down a point to 48.89% BaseMM just because: Chrono Trigger - 70.90% BaseMM Chrono Trigger wins with 54.53% Chrono Trigger was pretty scary this year. --- My bracket got smashed by DpObliVion. Congrats to DpObliVion for winning the BGE15 Guru Contest! |
Adjusted X-stats for DIVISON 7 Okay so...this one will require some explaining. Remember how I just adjusted the GotD stats, and it showed Oblivion being close to RE4? Making the SMRPG results make more sense? Yeah...about that... Super Mario RPG - 50 Resident Evil 4 - 48.47 Oblivion - 45.57 Metal Gear Solid 2 - 43.971984 Grand Theft Auto V - 42.8 Fallout: New Vegas - 40.608166 The Witcher 3 - 40.26954295 Paper Mario - 40.162242 Chrono Cross - 39.26 Resident Evil - 38.01817737 Bioshock Infinite - 35.79203751 GTA: San Andreas - 35.475336 World of Warcraft - 32.931288 Shenmue - 32.2284 Shovel Knight - 27.4721002 The Binding of Isaac Rebirth - 20.80324589 I went ahead and bumped up RE4 by 4% regardless. The stats simply do not work otherwise. Here's some examples of what I'm talking about, using stats if RE4 is unadjusted: WoW vs. PM1 2010: 40.85% WoW vs. PM1 2015: 44.68% GTA: SA vs. PM1 2010: 44.11% GTA: SA vs. PM1 2015: 48.13% SA vs. MGS2 2010: 40.41% SA vs. MGS2 2015: 43.9% Everything on RE4's half of the division does worse than before and looks like complete garbage. Bumping RE4's final score up by 4% makes every single comparison fall in line, and it's one that makes sense. SMRPG is projected to beat San Andreas by 64.52%. RE4 is projected to beat SA in 2010 by 63.18%. That amounts to a comfortable but not huge win for SMRPG, not the embarrassment that happened. The same thing happens if you compare them through World of Warcraft. Bumping RE4 up by 4% even puts it slightly above MGS3's result against SMRPG, and RE4>=MGS3 has been shown like 3 times in the past. So what happened? I don't know. All of SMRPG's matches honestly look fine, it's just the one against RE4 that doesn't make sense. I'm not sure why it would've bandwagoned/overperformed against RE4 and then not against MGS3, but all evidence shows that it did. As for what happened to Oblivion and why it's weaker than the 2010 Adjusted Stats Imply: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3500-division-7-final-mgs3-oblivion-zelda-tp-re4 Oblivion's first year. It shows about this level of strength. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4444-whats-your-all-time-favorite-4-game This is Oblivion afterwards. It's clearly stronger, just under RE4, like the 2010 Adjusted Stats show. Skyrim hype probably helped out and stuff. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5467-whats-your-all-time-favorite-4-game Here's a more recent Oblivion, where it's clearly lost a step from 2010/2011. In short, Oblivion boosted in 2010/2011, and then fell back to normal levels for 2015. X-stats are hard. P.S. Chrono Cross boosted since 2010, for whatever reason. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. (edited 12/16/2015 4:32:52 PM)report |
My
guess is to blame spillover. Super Mario RPG/RE4 was only two days
after Undertale/RBY and both fanbases from the latter would have
probably gone big for SMRPG. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] [NO DpObliVion NO PEACE] |
too
much subjective number-fu for my taste. I didn't think any result down
there was really outlandish outside of the Ocarina match. --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
Number-fu is the point of the Adjusted stats! Also not sure what Ocarina match you mean. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
As
stated several years ago, my preference is to just have the raw
x-stats, and let each person adjust them as they will, without
designating any adjustments as official. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
red sox 777 posted... As stated several years ago, my preference is to just have the raw x-stats, and let each person adjust them as they will, without designating any adjustments as official. Agreed. There's always something really stupid that makes its way into adjusted stats and ends up biting everyone in the next contest. --- DpObliVion, my hat is off to you. Welcome to the Guru Champions Club lol xstats |
there's adjusting off of previous results and then there's just adding 4% because it looks good. --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
I chalk up Paper Mario losing to reverse SFF and will adjust it up 30 points because it makes sense to me. --- Got wrecked in the Guru by the dastardly DpObliVion! |
KamikazePotato posted...
Oof. This is how things get messed up. --- satoru iwata |
red sox 777 posted... I think Undertale wins the GOTY polls without a rally. 33% on OOT with registered users is no joke. Well, that was a contest match and the GotY polls will be just regular PotDs. And people seem to vote more honestly in PotDs compared to contest matches, so you are probably going to see people voting differently in these polls. And the vote totals on the GotY polls will be far lower than any contest matches, which means people aren't going to vote if they haven't played any of the games listed in the poll. For Undertale to win the GotY polls, it's going to have to win the PC GotY poll first. If the GotY polls for this year are set up like they were last year, the PC GotY poll won't be limited to only PC exclusives, but include any multiplatform game that appeared on the PC. Which means Undertale would have to deal with The Witcher 3 in the PC GotY poll. Undertale would then have to win the overall GotY poll next, and then the 3-way GotY final (if we do have one). --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as DpObliVion, Guru Champ! |
The more options there are, the better Undertale should do. GOTY polls typically have lots of options so that's a benefit for it. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
MechanicalWall posted... foxhead84 posted...I know that character =\= game but in the next character battle, how far do you take Crono. Witch noble 9ers can he beat That's true, though if the official Sonic twitter account rallies that could turn the tide easily. |
I'm probably taking Crono to beat Link. I won't be outdone for taking Crono in upsets! --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
I'll still take Sonic > Crono. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif What DpOblivion did to me in the Guru Contest, in GIF form |
I
expect Crono vs. Mario, Samus, Cloud and Snake will be hotly debated.
Guessing that the board will favor Crono over Sephiroth until that
Remake actually comes out, or the hype intensifies a lot. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Hey
Luster, can you save the contest images from the final and bonus
matches? creativename's script didn't catch them and we can't lose those
pictures. They're too good. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest Congrats to DpOblivion in the guru! |
The bonus matches are just the round 1 and 2 pics reused. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif What DpOblivion did to me in the Guru Contest, in GIF form |
Well, I miss the super close matches already, but that's life I guess. So long contest~ |
Okay but we still need the finals pictures saved. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest Congrats to DpOblivion in the guru! |
They're all still right here. http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r7/43-1.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r7/43-2.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r7/43-3.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r7/43-4.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r7/65-1.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r7/65-2.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r7/65-3.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r7/65-4.jpg --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif What DpOblivion did to me in the Guru Contest, in GIF form |
Boosts between 2009 and 2010 but not between 2010 and now sounds pretty weird I do think that WoW and GTA are not really linear, though. Those games are all antivote magnets. --- Ralliers' determination can't even hold a birthday candle to the blazing flame of DpOblivion's winning spirit! |
Speaking of final contest pictures, does anyone have the spoiler pic saved? --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! DpObliVion is the new greatone. Congratulations to our Guru overlord. |
Wow, lots of good posts. creativename posted... These are some crappy bonus polls. I think CT vs. FFVI is worth something. The result makes sense when comparing the match to CT vs. FFX, though maybe (a big maybe) CT would be doing a touch better on a normal day. The other matches, though, I don't trust at all. Can we all at least agree that SMRPG gets hurt by rally spillover, and therefore underperformed against MGS3? LeonhartFour posted... Also, FFIX almost certainly overperformed on OoT, but that shouldn't be too surprising. Suikoden II did, too. SOTN might have, too, but it was probably balanced out by the spillover. Whatever anti-voting OoT got is thrown out the window once FFVII enters the picture. Suikoden II provides some evidence of that, but then look at Hearthstone. FFIX beat Kingdom Hearts. FFIX is not far from games like Melee in terms of strength. AxemRedRanger posted... Using the CT/Melee and Melee/FFVII registered voter numbers, KHI/KHII from Game of the Decade, and various matches from this contest, you get the following: Intriguing. The numbers seem to fit pretty well. It predicts FFIX/OoT almost exactly, though. --- Congrats to DpOblivion, blasting me into oblivion in Best. Game. Ever. 2015. |
No need to have saved that one. It looked like s***. LeonhartFour posted... They're all still right here. I'm lazy. Someone else do it. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest Congrats to DpOblivion in the guru! |
I
was thinking more for completion sake than for quality sake. Like it's
nice how we have that awful Kerrigan picture along with the changed
one, or the one Uncharted 1 pic that was submitted for Uncharted 2. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! DpObliVion is the new greatone. Congratulations to our Guru overlord. |
Less
than 5 minutes until the first regular poll of the contest off-season.
It will be interesting to see if there are higher than average vote
totals from all of the extra traffic we got during the past several
days. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as DpObliVion, Guru Champ! |
Well, this is an interesting poll to follow up with. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! DpObliVion is the new greatone. Congratulations to our Guru overlord. |
Interesting poll. Will be curious to see how many idiots refuse to try it out of spite. --- DpObliVion, my hat is off to you. Welcome to the Guru Champions Club lol xstats |
Great stuff, KKP. That is what the stats topic is all about! Okay, here's a crazy theory: not one that to believe in, but it's interesting, nonetheless. Notice how Twilight Princess did better than Melee against KHII? What if, TP/KHII was actually legit? It would explain how Twilight Princess did better than Super Metroid on Galaxy The problem here, of course, is that you would then have to assume that Brawl was severely rSFFed by Twilight Princess, and Dragon Age wouldn't predict such a theory, anway. TP vs. Galaxy SFF makes far more sense. I still don't feel that good about KHII underperforming on Twilight Princess, though. We could say that Kingdom Hearts has increased or Melee has decreased. Any of those three are possible, I suppose. Time for bed. I still have quite a few posts to read for tomorrow. --- Congrats to DpOblivion, blasting me into oblivion in Best. Game. Ever. 2015. |
http://imgur.com/F4pb4hk Final results of the grudge matches incase people here are discussing it. Didn't see any other applicable threads. --- PSN: TimesCrusader This is minecraft. Why deal with uneven terrain? If you don't like the lay of the land, you punch it until it shapes the f*** up |
Vote
totals are fairly good at this point, although that could be from
people being more likely to check out the homepage expecting more
matches or something. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as DpObliVion, Guru Champ! |
We are literally going to get a measurable metric of how salty the site was made today. C'monnnnnn spite shoot up to 50%+ --- Welcome to the League of Antivotes. |
No option for "still interested but less so" I see --- Ralliers' determination can't even hold a birthday candle to the blazing flame of DpOblivion's winning spirit! |
Good lord. This site is embarassing. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Results at the freeze: It might have, but I already owned it before the contest started 20.65% 121 Yes, I picked it up after it was featured in the contest battles 6.31% 37 Somewhat, I might have to at least try out the demo now 19.28% 113 Not really, it's not my style of game, not something I'd ever get 28.5% 167 No, and I refuse to ever buy it purely out of spite 25.26% 148 TOTAL VOTES 586 I guess I'll track this to see if Tumblr invades this poll. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as DpObliVion, Guru Champ! |
KamikazePotato posted... Good lord. This site is embarassing. Your game won. What exactly are you even mad about at this point. --- Eddv mobile style |
Well, look on the bright side! It's good to see so much of the site admitting they care about the contest! --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] [NO DpObliVion NO PEACE] |
AxemRedRanger posted... Well, look on the bright side! |
Dammit all saltiness had the board vote ...okay looking at this board that wasn't a surprise --- Welcome to the League of Antivotes. |
GoldenSeagulls posted... AxemRedRanger posted...Well, look on the bright side! It's a shame it took 80,000 pasty overweight teenaged girls for them to realize this --- DpObliVion, my hat is off to you. Welcome to the Guru Champions Club lol xstats |
TheCapisBack posted... KamikazePotato posted...Good lord. This site is embarassing. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5953-how-old-are-you It'd be nice for a site primarily comprised of adults to also mentally be adults --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
I think that age poll just flipped me off. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! DpObliVion is the new greatone. Congratulations to our Guru overlord. |
