GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1260 - The Coronation, Plus Grudge Matches!
GEEETTTTTTTT DUNKED ON!!!!!!!!! ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/ ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest Congrats to DpOblivion in the guru! |
bumpo --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest Congrats to DpOblivion in the guru! |
What a great result. and I STILL ended up in the 99.5'th percentile somehow. Woo! --- Smash Wii U username: McTavish |
Figured I'd post this in here too. Someone might find it interesting. http://i.imgur.com/1Ej81VQ.png Let's do some talking about the referral data from this contest. Dates and matches of note for reference on the graph, followed by total referrals from the sites listed (approximate) 12/13 - Undertale vs Smash - 176159 Total Votes (91000 referrals) 12/11 - Undertale vs Mario 64 - 111056 Total Votes (34000 referrals) 12/8 - Undertale vs Pokemon - 119865 Total Votes (38000 referrals) 12/7 - Smash vs Chrono Trigger - 72761 Total Votes (33000 referrals) 12/1 - Undertale vs Super Mario World - 98833 Total Votes (22000 referrals) 11/23 - Undertale vs Fallout 3 - 81673 Total Votes (18000 referrals) Followed by some baselines from neighboring days 12/12 - Mario RPG vs MGS3 - 60875 Total Votes (28000 referrals) 12/10 - Resident Evil 4 vs Mario RPG - 49529 Total Votes (12000 referrals) 12/9 - Ocarina of Time vs Castlevania - 62919 Total Votes (13000 referrals) 12/6 - Metal Gear Solid vs Shadow of the Colossus - 41484 Total Votes (10000 referrals) 12/2 - Metroid Prime vs Skyrim - 57696 Total Votes (10000 referrals) 11/30 - Smash Wii vs Final Fantasy VII - 47118 Total Votes (8000 referrals) 11/24 - Mario 64 vs Final Fantasy Tactics - 51391 Total Votes (10000 referrals) 11/22 - Halo vs Final Fantasy VII - 39145 Total Votes (6000 referrals) Things I found interesting: (This may be a skewed look at the data but I've provided all the numbers here for you so you can draw your own conclusions as well.) Chrono Trigger vs Super Smash Bros Melee, our only real significant non Undertale rally this contest, had significantly more referrals than Undertale vs Fallout 3 and Undertale vs Super Mario World, yet was outvoted significantly by those two matches. In fact, it was only beaten by Pokemon vs Undertale by 5000 yet was outvoted by over 45000. Isolating "referral" votes we tend to range between 30-50k votes per match, usually closer to 40k. Ocarina vs SotN is the only one out of that range-- which could just be Ocarina's drawing power (it dipped into the 40-50k range in other matches too-- 12/3 vs FFIX for instance) Assuming 40k votes per match that aren't referrals, and adding the referrals, Undertale matches have consistently outscored their referral rate by about 30-40k. Rallies = more referrals = more unexplained votes doesn't follow, however, as Chrono Trigger vs Melee falls about in line. 30-40k + 33000-- the high end of that would be 73000, which is about in line with what you'd expect. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Since
we don't have any idea what kind of bonus matches we will be getting
tomorrow, if someone sets up an Oracle prediction topic, it should cover
a fairly good listing of possible bonus matches we could see. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as DpObliVion, Guru Champ! |
Reminder that OOT only cut one vote the whole match --- 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
can we not make subtitles a standard thing now --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif What DpOblivion did to me in the Guru Contest, in GIF form |
Only for special occasions! --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest Congrats to DpOblivion in the guru! |
can we just not have them at all Chrono Trigger vs. Smash Bros. Melee: 63.28% / 36.72% Smash Bros. Melee vs. Final Fantasy VII: 42.92% / 57.08% the X-Stats are saved! also Melee on FFX's level confirmed --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif What DpOblivion did to me in the Guru Contest, in GIF form |
You know I probably shouldn't have wasted time on that. I think it was more for my peace of mind than anything. Didn't help, though! Now more convinced than ever something is afoot. And you should be too. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Considering how pro-Nintendo registered users are, that actually implies SSBM would have done worse than the registered numbers against CT/FF7 without the rallies. Yeesh. --- Welcome to the League of Antivotes. (edited 12/15/2015 1:53:29 PM)report |
Man the Undertale fanbase got hyped for an impossibly hard final showdown that didn't really pan out. <.< --- Welcome to the League of Antivotes. |
Karma Hunter posted... Man the Undertale fanbase got hyped for an impossibly hard final showdown that didn't really pan out. <.< This is the reverse of Link/Draven where everyone was expecting a complete stomp. |
Karma Hunter posted... Man the Undertale fanbase got hyped for an impossibly hard final showdown that didn't really pan out. <.< I think outside forces don't understand just how much weight they have in these polls and how little a site gamefaqs is these days. It's nowhere near being the giant it used to be. --- Warning: I am a satirical person and don't care for other's sensitivities. If you have a problem with this, please block me and go away. |
I really hope we get a CT vs OoT bonus match. --- Knowing that one day you might beat DPOblivion in the guru contest... ...It fills you with determination. |
Placing bets on Big Rigs vs. Cory in the House and Superman 64 vs. E.T. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif What DpOblivion did to me in the Guru Contest, in GIF form |
... ... ... Oh god. I think we're getting Ocarina of Time vs. Operation Shadow. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] [NO DpObliVion NO PEACE] |
Allen knows the people want Operation Shadow even if the people will complain all day --- Welcome to the League of Antivotes. |
LeonhartFour posted... Placing bets on Big Rigs vs. Cory in the House and Superman 64 vs. E.T. One of those four games should be in the next best game ever contest. |
isn't OoT slowly catching up? or is that just me? --- http://i.imgur.com/FyN68Sj.jpg http://i.imgur.com/KYBhD6J.jpg http://i.imgur.com/53f6qdc.jpg [[Proud Member of the Three Yusketeers!]] |
I've seen GFaqs references in the Twitch chat for Smash. 146,046 viewers We got this, boys --- Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses |
yumeko posted... isn't OoT slowly catching up? or is that just me? Only in the % standings. In terms of raw numbers Undertale has been increasing the gap since the beginning. --- -Abraham Lincoln |
I can't even tell if people are being serious when they start rambling that Ocarina can come back from 20,000 votes --- Welcome to the League of Antivotes. |
Do
you guys think we will ever be able to have another traditional
character battle without any outside rallies deciding the whole contest
like Draven or Undertale? Or is that no longer possible. --- http://i135.photobucket.com/albums/q155/Gamecubesupreme/sf7y9s.jpg http://i.imgur.com/TVkqM83.jpg (edited 12/15/2015 2:20:20 PM)report |
Geiki Ganger posted... Do you guys think we will ever be able to have another traditional character battle without any outside rallies deciding the whole contest like Draven or Undertale? Nah, that's not possible unless it's the very first match/group of matches. |
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CWTKO0DXAAAYAvB.jpg:large We now have official Link vs. Cloud artwork. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
KamikazePotato posted... https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CWTKO0DXAAAYAvB.jpg:large >No Zack Fair. Man if there's anything I dislike about the FF fanbase, it's how swept under the rug that guy is. --- Warning: I am a satirical person and don't care for other's sensitivities. If you have a problem with this, please block me and go away. (edited 12/15/2015 2:26:05 PM)report |
It's...a Smash Bros thing. Why would Zack be there. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
KamikazePotato posted... https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CWTKO0DXAAAYAvB.jpg:large Contest match picture for next character battle IMO --- 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 (edited 12/15/2015 2:27:20 PM)report |
Anyone think Cloud can make it interesting against Link as the Smash 4/Remake hype begins to swell? I mean, pre-rallies. --- Welcome to the League of Antivotes. |
Turncoat Kirby working with Cloud I like it --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
KamikazePotato posted... It's...a Smash Bros thing. Why would Zack be there. It still kind of saddens me. Zack is the driving force behind a lot of Cloud's actions and his behaviors. --- Warning: I am a satirical person and don't care for other's sensitivities. If you have a problem with this, please block me and go away. |
OOT f***ing died during the direct Now if it was a close match now would be a great time to start spamming the poll in every damn Nintendo site But it isn't So whatever --- 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
What a lead. *insert satisfied face* --- -Abraham Lincoln |
Twenty thousand vote lead exactly. --- Welcome to the League of Antivotes. |
Exactly 20k lead. This is OoT's last chance to try a comeback, if this lead gets any larger, it's OVER. |
Guys https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CWTKO0DXAAAYAvB.jpg:large This is officially official as drawn by Tetsuya Nomura --- satoru iwata |
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CWTNoGNWIAQ56Rz.jpg:large More good artwork! --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
It's too bad we have Mario there Maybe it's possible to edit him out and still have it as a great match pic --- 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
Ryu vs. Little Mac and Peach vs. Game & Watch in a frying pan duel --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif What DpOblivion did to me in the Guru Contest, in GIF form |
ZFS posted... Guys We haven't hit peak hype yet though until HM officially shifts to the Cloud > Link train so let's keep an eye on this --- Welcome to the League of Antivotes. |
20k exactly! --- 3DS FC: 1805-2178-2522 NNID: Scarlettail |
Karma Hunter posted... We haven't hit peak hype yet though until HM officially shifts to the Cloud > Link train so let's keep an eye on this Nope! Link still wins and all is still right --- satoru iwata |
Lopen posted... You know I probably shouldn't have wasted time on that. I think it was more for my peace of mind than anything. Allen mentioned that they couldn't track votes from certain sources like mobile apps. Plus, we know by now that the popuku being rallied for Undertale had a pretty good chunk of non-typical contest voters. Meaning they are more likely to have been using stuff like mobile apps, or Google searching for the contest website. To me that seems like a non-nefarious explanation, dunno how likely :P --- Every day the rest of your life is changed forever. |
Averia posted... Exactly 20k lead. It would have to cut over 250 per update until midnight to overtake Undertale. But right now it's hovering around 200 - Undertale could literally get negative votes every update for the rest of the night and would still win if OoT maintains its current pace. --- -Abraham Lincoln (edited 12/15/2015 2:40:25 PM)report |
Vayu_The_End posted... KamikazePotato posted...It's...a Smash Bros thing. Why would Zack be there. Anyone who played Crisis Core knows Zack is the real hero of FF7 and not emo boy. --- http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/330/958/a5b.gif |
Man, even a Smash Direct couldn't help OoT get a cut. --- http://www.backloggery.com/whitelens | http://myanimelist.net/profile/WhiteLens Congrats to the last man standing in Guru, DpObliVion |
ZFS posted... Karma Hunter posted...We haven't hit peak hype yet though until HM officially shifts to the Cloud > Link train so let's keep an eye on this Hype level: minimal --- Welcome to the League of Antivotes. |
WhiteLens posted... Man, even a Smash Direct couldn't help OoT get a cut. If only it was Melee facing Undertale today. --- http://i135.photobucket.com/albums/q155/Gamecubesupreme/sf7y9s.jpg http://i.imgur.com/TVkqM83.jpg |
