GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1257
Lopen posted... I have stronger evidence than "Bacon said there wasn't" though Which is? --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest Congrats to DpOblivion in the guru! |
If you're not going to read my posts in these topics I'm not going to repeat myself. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Let's go back to comparing video game popularity contests to women's breasts please. For instance, Melee/Undertale was like motorboating a fabulous set on a 10/10 model. --- Not_Wylvane (edited 12/14/2015 4:52:37 PM)report |
It's like you've never played mafia with me, Lopen. I never "go back and read" anything. But for you, I will. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest Congrats to DpOblivion in the guru! |
Ocarina
of Time/Hearthstone was like watching a woman with massive breasts slam
them into a flat-chested chick's head and knock her out cold. --- Not_Wylvane |
UltimaterializerX posted... It's not a good look when GameFAQs is known around the entire internet for whining too much every time a chosen one loses in a poll. And public perception is important, why? Kotaku's article just goes to show that public perception is too easily manipulated to be of any value. --- Every day the rest of your life is changed forever. |
Super Metroid/Majora's Mask was like two women slamming each other's breasts over each other's for twenty-four hours. --- Not_Wylvane |
Okay I did an iso, and Lopen you have posted nothing beyond "Bacon is probably lying". You haven't posted any data or findings, just a reason why he would lie (even though he legally has to stop cheating due to the prizes). Where are the goods? What's this data that proves Undertale cheated? --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest Congrats to DpOblivion in the guru! |
Not_Wylvane posted... Ocarina of Time/Hearthstone was like watching a woman with massive breasts slam them into a flat-chested chick's head and knock her out cold. Flat is justice and Ocarina of Time is the LAW. Heartstone was the woman with massive breasts that got defeated by the power of justice! |
UltimaterializerX posted... Okay I did an iso, and Lopen you have posted nothing beyond "Bacon is probably lying". Undertale is a B cup at best while its opponents are all C cups! Who would actually vote for a B cup over a C cup? (The twist is Undertale has a great ass.) --- Not_Wylvane |
Ass is better, it is true. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest Congrats to DpOblivion in the guru! |
I prefer breasts myself but can appreciate a good ass when I see it. The problem with Board 8 is the people here can only appreciate breasts, so when someone with a great ass comes in and gets all the attention they get pissed because nobody's talking about the nice breasts anymore! Good thing L-Block had the complete package! --- Not_Wylvane |
It's
perfectly valid to examine the different components of a game's
strength. There's nothing wrong with saying "SMRPG is fodder in Europe"
nor is there's a problem with saying "Unrallied Round 1 Undertale is
fodder" even though it's more than just Europe that comes and votes and
similarly it's more than just unrallied voters that come vote. Unlike
Europe SMRPG, unrallied Undertale can even actually appear in a match.
Stick it in a match with Driv3r and even Undertale's rubberbanding will
not let it go below 60%. Furthermore, understanding how strong a game is
without rallies gives us an understanding on how strong a rally is
required to change a result. Hearthstone would need a giant one to take
out OoT. SSBM only needed a large one to beat CT. --- No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585. Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest! |
UltimaterializerX posted... Okay I did an iso, and Lopen you have posted nothing beyond "Bacon is probably lying". Don't be naive. Allen has plenty reason not to disqualify Undertale from this contest, because this is the kind of thing that makes the site more viable. I doubt he is blatantly ignoring anything, but neither is he going to be investing in additional poll analysis/security just to disprove the votals analysis from a few Board 8 regulars who don't believe him. Just because Lopen is the only one saying it doesn't automatically make it right or wrong, any more than Allen saying something makes it automatically right or wrong. --- Every day the rest of your life is changed forever. |
Pigs. --- You dare bring light to my lair? YOU MUST DIE! - CDI Ganon |
Lopen posted... You know I feel strangely sane when Ulti is one of the guys waving a flag against me and loudly proclaiming I'm crazy Ulti can be right on occasion when he pulls his head out of his ass. I'm actually surprised you're so far down the rabbit hole on this, since you always seemed to be one of the more sane people on this board. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy -trancer1 lol xstats |
Julian_Caesar posted... UltimaterializerX posted...Okay I did an iso, and Lopen you have posted nothing beyond "Bacon is probably lying". Who has access to where votes are coming from, Allen or Lopen? --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest Congrats to DpOblivion in the guru! |
Oh Jesus, you idiots are going to start this stupid s*** again. I tried. --- Not_Wylvane |
Also, out of curiosity Lopen, are you a 9/11 truther? What are your thoughts on the moon landing? --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy -trancer1 lol xstats |
Keep in mind a lot of it was already explained in previous topics It basically boils down to how many extra votes we're getting and where they're coming from. With things like Undertale and Draven, you have a lot of weird stuff going on with the vote totals. Not just the number increase, but where they votes are going and the sustainability. I believe Draven in r2 of last contest had something stupid like 95% of the extra votes over the norm going to him (I did an analysis pre-post rally), and the topic on the board that had plenty of people saying "I'm voting Mega Man" Compared to his match the previous round with Chie and Jak, he got only about 70% of the extra votes in comparison. Which is a lot more conservative a turnout especially considering he was against weaker opponents there. Also contrary to what you'd expect from rallies, and from actual rallies we've seen. Rallies tend to add votes to all sides-- more favorably to the one being rallied, but the other guys don't get nothing. I haven't really done as much analysis on Undertale, because frankly it's harder with the beginning of the polls being obscured by rallying off the bat, but it behaves much more similarly to R2 Draven than it does R1 Draven overall. It has about an 85-90% retention rate on the extra votes, and the rallies don't show any sign of fatigue or much variance until the game has overtaken its opponent-- but actual rallies don't work like that. I mean this basically just boils down to how information travelling across the internet works-- for instance if a rally post is made on Tumblr, you shouldn't expect a constant stream of people to be exposed to that. A lot of people will see it when it's fresh and then the effect should be lessened until it's shared again with another major player. Basically what I'm saying is there should be peaks and valleys in the Rally's effectiveness based on what it hits certain important points of interest-- like more influential tumblr people putting it up on theirs or whatever. Add in to the fact that a lot of Undertale's "peaks" in its match vs Pokemon and Smash were made in response to threat from the other side rather than any actual detected rally presence, and there's a lot of evidence there that the votes aren't actually natural and are being made in response to percentages than actual rally presence. I'm not saying there aren't rallies-- I'm just saying they don't behave like rallies should-- there is a lot of "cushioning" in the extra votes. Like the vote totals just flatly go up to like 300 or 400 as a base (depending on how serious it feels at the point of the match) and then it goes up bits by there. It shouldn't be nearly that consistent. Compare to something like Smash vs CT-- Smash went up to like 300 for a few updates, slowly dropped to 200 for a while, then dropped to more or less normal after an hour or two. There was not a sustained vote floor like Undertale got-- then in the next round there was one even for Smash, despite Smash doing more or less the same kinda tactics. No there's nothing definitive, because short of knowing someone who is doing it themselves I can't do that with the information I have, but there is evidence that is hard to ignore unless you just change the logic of how rallying should, and historically, has, worked, to conform to how the vote totals look. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Lopen did a lot more analysis for Draven. I do think people are equating Draven and Undertale too much though. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
UltimaterializerX posted... Julian_Caesar posted...UltimaterializerX posted...Okay I did an iso, and Lopen you have posted nothing beyond "Bacon is probably lying". That's a meaningless question if vote stuffing is hidden well enough. Hence my comment about Allen not getting ADDITIONAL measures just to prove Lopen wrong. It's not worth it from his point of view for two reasons: 1. He has no reason to agressively pursue a DQ of Undertale 2. He has no reason to really suspect that Lopen's analysis is more true than his own insider information It's not a hard concept. Whether or not Lopen (or Allen) is right/wrong about the legitimacy of Undertale's votes, there just isn't enough incentive (either from a "full truth" perspective or a practical perspective) to justify Allen trying something additional to see whether Lopen is right. --- Every day the rest of your life is changed forever. |
Guys,
there's no way that jet fuel can melt steel beams. That PROOVES that it
was a missile + thermite that took down the towers. Wake up sheeple! --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy -trancer1 lol xstats |
Comparing
me to a 9/11 Truther just makes you look idiotic. This isn't
speculation it's interpreting vote data and comparing it to how
information naturally traverses the internet (you see how this works
every day you're on a message board) --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
If
there was vote stuffing methods that worked, I imagine Luster or
whoever would've figured it out by now and have used it to get Phoenix
Wright to the finals. e: Hell, maybe that's how he beat Vincent! Quick, someone analyze whether there was vote stuffing in that match. --- Not_Wylvane (edited 12/14/2015 5:16:41 PM)report |
Not_Wylvane posted... Oh Jesus, you idiots are going to start this stupid s*** again. It's not stupid s*** until people start name-calling. Which I guess I kinda did by calling Ulti naive :/ dammit, sorry --- Every day the rest of your life is changed forever. |
Rallies always slow down when the one being rallied is winning. I will admit that Undertale does feel like it has a magic "I need votes" button whenever it truly gets threatened. I won't deny this. The logical explanation though would be live social media and everyone having smart phones to immediately respond to something (rallies used to take longer to get going, even two years ago). Trends in general have died this contest. I dunno, if the guy who outright knows where all the votes are coming from says it's legit and can immediately tell when Smurf starts up his usual nonsense, it's hard to imagine a vote script actually working. Even the cell phone/computer lab method doesn't work anymore, and one could technically argue that the computer lab thing isn't really cheating. There are clearly large measures in place to make sure votes are as unique as possible. --- Get the X out. Vinateri was using his god powers on the Pats and then was like "Wait I'm a Colt now lol" and now you have it. |
Naive is hardly some insult, especially when it's true. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest Congrats to DpOblivion in the guru! |
UltimaterializerX posted... Naive is hardly some insult, especially when it's true. Fair enough. UItimaterializer posted... I will admit that Undertale does feel like it has a magic "I need votes" button whenever it truly gets threatened. I won't deny this. The logical explanation though would be live social media and everyone having smart phones to immediately respond to something (rallies used to take longer to get going, even two years ago). Trends in general have died this contest. Yeah I think we do underestimate how closely the other sites are watching our board, they've probably realized that we watch trends closely and know when the match is actually changing. --- Every day the rest of your life is changed forever. |
Lopen posted... Comparing me to a 9/11 Truther just makes you look idiotic. This isn't speculation it's interpreting vote data and comparing it to how information naturally traverses the internet (you see how this works every day you're on a message board) I've carefully analyzed this potato quality video taken by a homeless man 3 miles away from Manhatten and you can CLEARLY see charges going off in the North Tower BEFORE the plane hits. See what I did there? I'm implying that your limited view and incomplete data in this argument makes you equivalent to a crazy conspiracy theory guy. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy -trancer1 lol xstats |
Julian_Caesar posted... UltimaterializerX posted...Naive is hardly some insult, especially when it's true. But then, why does this only apply to Undertale? Like Lopen pointed out, other games that have rallies do eventually wane, and typically increase in increments over time, rather than just suddenly getting a huge spike in a single update then retain that vote total until it's in the lead, and then do it again if Undertale falls behind. I'll admit, rallies would be easier to do in this day and age due to the smart phone revolution, but none of the other rallies have shared Undertale's characteristics. Rallies do eventually show signs of waning, Undertale just... doesn't. --- Warning: I am a satirical person and don't care for other's sensitivities. If you have a problem with this, please block me and go away. (edited 12/14/2015 5:29:59 PM)report |
I
don't think it's too strange to assume that in a huge ass rally that
drew thousands of new faces to check out our contest one guy had a bit
more savvy than Luster and figured out a way to beat any methods
we have in place. There's a lot more guys potentially working at it,
and I'm not convinced it's a huge priority on our end. And the whole social media thing doesn't work when you've got counter-examples from this contest (Melee vs CT) of rallies not really working like that. I'm not saying it should be a straight like, WHOO SPIKE TO 400 then immediately drop to 200 in the next update-- but yeah the way Internet works it shouldn't be nearly as smooth as it is. Like even if 400 was the floor, you'd expect the highs to go higher than 450, in that case, because there's always an opening surge when new people see information and then after that you're left with the constant stream of people who don't seeing it as it breaks. As I've said, you're on a message board so you've seen this. People having more access to smartphones and stuff would actually make this effect more pronounced, not less, because they'd more often get the information as it breaks. I just don't think what meager "evidence" Bacon has provided us outweighs the weirdness in the votes, that's all. You're free to disagree-- I don't like being called a "truther" though, particularly when I'm making valid points and have actually looked at the data more than most of you have. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
My
issue is if games could be vote stuffed, why Undertale? Logically, the
best game to vote stuff would be Final Fantasy IX. Who would vote stuff
Undertale over Final Fantasy IX? --- Not_Wylvane |
I think the list of songs I'll listen to for this match will jump all over the place and not even always make any sense. but i think i have to start with the title theme hopefully it can hold the lead at the freeze --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? |
Vayu_The_End posted... Rallies do eventually show signs of waning, Undertale just... doesn't. The scary part is I don't think Undertale reached its ceiling vs. SSBM. --- What's wrong with the world these days is people don't have any common sense. http://i.imgur.com/rSLadBM.png |
Today's hourly vote total trends are a bit strange. Hourly vote totals so far: 1:00 | 13078 2:00 | 6153 3:00 | 4210 4:00 | 3096 5:00 | 2788 6:00 | 2457 7:00 | 3002 8:00 | 3480 9:00 | 3589 10:00 | 3706 11:00 | 3794 12:00 | 3602 13:00 | 3471 14:00 | 3162 15:00 | 3006 16:00 | 3186 17:00 | 3180 18:00 | 3097 19:00 | 3691 20:00 | 3176 Outside of the first 3 hours with the heavy spillover and naturally high vote totals, the highest voted hours after those first 3 hours are the late morning hours. But after late morning hours, vote totals have been dropping off at a much slower pace than we would usually see in a normal match. There's also a spike in vote totals during the 6:00-7:00 PM hour, which was caused directly by the Kotaku article (it was posted at 6:00 PM). --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
Vayu_The_End posted... But then, why does this only apply to Undertale? Given the publicity, it's not impossible to think that Undertale fans really are just rallying on twitter/websites/etc and are watching the stats topic and/or updater to know when to really push for a surge. But at this point they are doing so on top of a large L-block type movement on GameFAQs and other sites in general. So they don't have to stuff votes to defend against rallies, necessarily, they just have to rally whenever the other entrant is getting close. --- Every day the rest of your life is changed forever. |
We're
talking about someone knowing GameFAQs better than Luster, the guy who
probably has a detailed schedule of Allen's bowel movements. I cannot
see anyone out-doing Luster on GamqFAQs knowledge. Hell, the guy knows
the location of CJayC's secret dungeon that even Bacon doesn't know
about! --- Not_Wylvane |
xp1337 posted... I think the list of songs I'll listen to for this match will jump all over the place and not even always make any sense. Space Jam OST or bust |
PoncedeLeonhart posted... xp1337 posted...I think the list of songs I'll listen to for this match will jump all over the place and not even always make any sense. I had the Barkley Shut Up and Jam OST (well parts of it, Main Theme included) for the Melee match! i may go back to it at times but i got to change it up a bit! --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? |
I
don't need more data than I have to know how voting trends work. Like
the stuff Bacon has that I do not would help me make my argument more
bulletproof, but it's not at all necessary to detect if something's
suspicious. Let's put it this way Say Undertale got 10000 votes in 5 minutes at a random point in the match with no real indication of any rally presence anywhere on the internet. Would that obviously be cheating to you? What if Bacon said it wasn't? No, of course not, there's clearly something stupid going on there. It's not that much different with the way vote totals pan out here, it's just a lot less obvious unless you're being more rigorous with how you look at them. The only reason I see patterns that you don't is because I actually give a crap and am looking at the votes and you are just content to assume "dur rally." If you looked at the votes more closely and compared it to other matches, compared it to what's going on in the rally at the time, etc etc, and were smart enough to analyze it in a meaningful fashion, you'd see things too. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Julian_Caesar posted... Vayu_The_End posted...But then, why does this only apply to Undertale? Why would they bother holding off their vote then? Because that would be the only explanation for the sudden vote spike, except for prominent figures on any of the sites seeing Undertale losing and posting something about the contest. But nobody can really pinpoint where these votes are coming from, they just... happen. People don't just see a tweet made by a person, go to the poll, see that Undertale is winning, and then just not vote. --- Warning: I am a satirical person and don't care for other's sensitivities. If you have a problem with this, please block me and go away. |
Not_Wylvane posted... We're talking about someone knowing GameFAQs better than Luster, the guy who probably has a detailed schedule of Allen's bowel movements. I cannot see anyone out-doing Luster on GamqFAQs knowledge. Hell, the guy knows the location of CJayC's secret dungeon that even Bacon doesn't know about! This reminds me...I first saw Luster as part of the secret board hunting movement (Zamzara forever :3). And I recall that Luster had the second highest number of AMP, and that he was way above the 3rd place poster....but there was someone with an AMP that even dwarfed his. Who was that? Would have been around 2005-6 I think or something like that. --- Every day the rest of your life is changed forever. |
I
think if there was vote stuffing, Luster would've spotted it
immediately. He was the one who got the lead on the Melee stuffer by
tracking account registrations, after all! Sorry, Lopen, but you're no Luster. --- Not_Wylvane |
Vayu_The_End posted... Julian_Caesar posted...UltimaterializerX posted...Naive is hardly some insult, especially when it's true. I think the problem here is you guys not understanding how social media works nowadays. Undertale's rallies have been extremely consistant, and constistancy is the biggest argument that there's nothing shady happening. SBAllen has admitted that most of the vote traffic has come from Reddit, but even playing devil's advocate and ignoring that, we know for a FACT that the subreddit and the popular tumblr blogs are the source for the bulk of the rallies. We can correlate when these posts are made/shared that the game starts increasing. People are focusing on the 4-5 'big' tumblr blogs, but what they're forgetting is that tublr posts spread out as people share them. As people share them, more and more people see and continue the sharing process. It would naturally dilute, but at the same time it would also grow as more people see the notes. It all comes together when you realize that tumblr is populated exclusively by fedora-wearing neckbeards who are creepily into My Little Pony, and heavyset teenaged girls that are into yaoi fanfiction and animes. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy -trancer1 lol xstats |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted... Vayu_The_End posted...Julian_Caesar posted...UltimaterializerX posted...Naive is hardly some insult, especially when it's true. I don't know about it being the subreddit. That thread was pretty dead when Pokemon got that huge lead. It COULD be Tumblr, as I don't think we've had any other rallies that were Tumblr powered. But I still don't think the power of Tumblr would completely eliminate any of the characteristics a normal rally would typically have. --- Warning: I am a satirical person and don't care for other's sensitivities. If you have a problem with this, please block me and go away. (edited 12/14/2015 5:46:46 PM)report |
Did someone say Space Jam? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KlxsBPhiKM --- BGE3: Today's Matches LoZ: OoT > MGS Points 211/352 |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted... SBAllen has admitted that most of the vote traffic has come from Reddit, but even playing devil's advocate and ignoring that, we know for a FACT that the subreddit and the popular tumblr blogs are the source for the bulk of the rallies You're kinda arguing two things here. - It should work using Tumblr mechanics, cause a lot of the votes are from Tumblr - Bacon said it was mostly from Reddit, which doesn't work like that. Reddit is the opposite of that. Isn't this evidence that Bacon isn't actually giving us real information to begin with? I mean you said it yourself, Bacon said the majority of the votes are coming from Reddit, but that doesn't really jive with what we see. In any case, I am aware of how Tumblr works that's why I'm saying it shouldn't be one spike, but there should still be more variance. It's not a constant flow-- yes the notes and such will make it so it's not super spikey, which is why I was saying "well it shouldn't go 400 to 200 after 5 minutes." You thinking it should be constant implies you are the one with a lack of understanding here. Random big spikes do need to come from somewhere, and they will exist. The tumblr model doesn't have people just luck into everyone happening to see "hey my friend made a note on this" right when Undertale is in trouble. Also you've yet to address how Melee acted like Undertale in its match with it yet not at all like that in its match with CT, despite using the same rally methods both times. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
I
still find it odd that this site can't really retain the traffic spikes
from matchups involving Draven and Undertale. I would think that a lot
of people who play these games would at least throw some votes for other
matchups here and there. |
