GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1256
LeonhartFour posted... FFVII at 45% on CT. I think it would have been closer than that; FFVII was looking way worse than it should have between all of that rally crossfire. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
LeonhartFour posted... My initial thought for adjusting the mess that will be the upper half was to set OoT and CT very close to each other, put Melee at 40% and FFVII at 45% on CT. Those will be ballpark estimations, of course, but they're probably not too far off. Melee at 40% on FFVII is an overestimation on FFVII's part. I would have put Melee at 43% on FFVII. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
I'd
say to adjust ff7 through wind waker. you can't just put 45% on CT
without it being questioned. there's the rally to consider with ff6 but I
think it's offset by Majora/WW overlap. --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
LordoftheMorons posted... TheOneAboveAll posted... Of course. It would still be hilarious if something changed, though. --- Raytan7585 is better than me at redditFAQs |
Yeah,
probably. That was just my initial thought. It's not set in stone yet.
I'll probably come up with a better number once I start fiddling around
with the stats and seeing what looks "right." Of course, that will be based partially on my own conjecture of what seems "right," but eh, whaddya gonna do. I'll probably throw some numbers at you guys from time to time and see what you think. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
-LusterSoldier- posted... Melee at 40% on FFVII is an overestimation on FFVII's part. I would have put Melee at 43% on FFVII. Melee at 40% on Chrono Trigger, I meant. That's probably being a little too generous to Melee, but whatever. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
I was actually thinking that Okami should be your base. I think that's through F3's side of the bracket and I always felt like any overperformance was with F3/Brawl, not any of the Majora matches. --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
LeonhartFour posted... Melee at 40% on Chrono Trigger, I meant. Oh, alright. Well, based on the early vote during CT/Melee, it looked like CT was going to get around 62-63% on Melee at the end of the match assuming no rally. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
TheOneAboveAll posted... Of course. It would still be hilarious if something changed, though. Oh, no arguments there! People would go ballistic. The Undertale fandom might have taken a clean defeat well, but not something like that (of course, gamefaqs would also go ballistic at the reverse). --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Okami is probably a pretty good base. Honestly, Majora's Mask is probably a really good base. It's held up to its GOTD stats really well, but there's LTTP/OoT SFF to consider there first. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
OoT
has still gained percent every single update so far. That is kind of
crazy. I know it gets heavily anti-voted early on now but even games
like FF7 usually have at least 1-2 bad updates during the first hour. --- 9/2/13-The Hero of GameFAQs fought bravely but fell to an unrelenting horde supported by a corrupt tyranny. R.I.P. Hero of Time, 7 time CB Champion, Link |
It's at 66% in the UK, too, so this upward trend should continue for quite a while. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Thoughts on adjusting: 1. I think SMRPG overperformed on RE4 by a bit. The current stats have stuff like SotC>MGS2 (by a good amount) and Oblivion>RE4 and I find that hard to buy. Paper Mario 1 also looks like trash. 2. Adjust LTTP/MM through Perfect Dark and call it a day. 3. For OoT/LTTP, I would set FF9=2010 RE4 and adjusting LTTP based on what it would be predicted to get there. Or at least, seeing what it ends up looking like. 4. Set Melee = 38% on Chrono Trigger. 5. For FF7/FF6, adjust it through Mass Effect 1 and Paper Mario 2. 6. For FF7/Melee, adjust through...KH2 I guess? We also need to adjust the GotD stats themselves to account for MM/WW SFF in them...yeah. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
if you adjust for MM/WW SFF, then you end up with Oblivion and RE4 really close together anyway! there will be plenty of time to fiddle around once the contest is over, so no hurry --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
It stands to reason that smrpg probably had a bit of bandwagoning. I too would hesitate to put oblivion over re4. As for melee, I'd set it to 40% on CT. --- http://www.last.fm/user/VinnyMendoza "This is all we have... when we die.." |
I doubt SMRPG overperformed by much. RE4 only got 54.5% on MGS2. It's not going to be that much stronger than Oblivion. And it makes the ensuing SMRPG/MGS3 match make less sense. Did it overperform there, too? --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
LordoftheMorons posted... TheOneAboveAll posted... It doesn't, and I'm not sure how you could control that. If you go on your phone's mobile plan it will have a different IP altogether. I would imagine multi device voting is equal on both sides and isn't something to worry about. --- http://www.last.fm/user/VinnyMendoza "This is all we have... when we die.." |
I
wouldn't trust SMRPG as far as I could throw it. I know people are like
"wow guess we underestimated GTAV" but man... this is still GameFAQs.
Its standing just reeks of wrongness. There's plenty of crazy overperformances even if you don't discuss SMRPG. We all know Mass Effect 2 isn't that weak, right? --- Welcome to the League of Antivotes. |
Well
you can literally vote twice while logged into the same account if
you're dumb (I believe; I haven't tried doing it because lol vote
stuffing, but I always have the vote options on my phone despite having
voted earlier on my computer). --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
I'm
kinda wondering if rallied people sticking around have fundamentally
shifted the strengths of some games a couple percent over the course of
the contest. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
LeonhartFour posted... I doubt SMRPG overperformed by much. RE4 only got 54.5% on MGS2. It's not going to be that much stronger than Oblivion. It didn't overperform by much, no. Perhaps it is safer to leave it unadjusted. But yes I think smrpg overperformed a tiny bit on mgs3. It seemed like it kept getting stronger as the contest went on. I don't see any reason why oblivion would come that close to mgs3 and re4. It's older and considered the weakest of the last 3 elder scrolls game by most fans. --- http://www.last.fm/user/VinnyMendoza "This is all we have... when we die.." |
LordoftheMorons posted... Well you can literally vote twice while logged into the same account if you're dumb (I believe; I haven't tried doing it because lol vote stuffing, but I always have the vote options on my phone despite having voted earlier on my computer). I forgot I had already voted in a couple matches and when you try to vote again, it tells you you've already submitted a vote. I heard a lot of people complain that the site said they had already voted and I was wondering if maybe it was a glitch related to separate device tracking of votes. --- http://www.last.fm/user/VinnyMendoza "This is all we have... when we die.." |
Oblivion being that strong is a big sticking point with me, especially looking at Skyrim's division and noticing that it's not really that special. I also have a hard time believing that if you put SMRPG in Paper Mario's place in the bracket that RE4 doesn't put up a better fight than the pathetic attempt it gave. I'm happy cherishing that it's stronger than Paper Mario, but that much stronger gives me pause. --- Welcome to the League of Antivotes. |
The
Melee rally is still sitting in the middle of the first page of hot
topics on the Smash Bros. subreddit, so that's probably bringing in a
lot votes on today's matches. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
-LusterSoldier- posted... The Melee rally is still sitting in the middle of the first page of hot topics on the Smash Bros. subreddit, so that's probably bringing in a lot votes on today's matches. I was gonna say too bad it wasn't going to be around for the final, but on the flipside it's probably better for Undertale not to be able to roll its rallies straight into the finals too. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Oblivion didn't finish that far behind RE4 and MGS3 in 2009 and it got almost 44% on Wind Waker. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3500-division-7-final-mgs3-oblivion-zelda-tp-re4 At the very least, I have a hard time thinking it's not stronger than MGS2, unless we think Skyrim made the game fade away. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Maybe
the game's just not entirely transitive? Its worst matches were against
strong Europe games (Oblivion, GTAV, MGS3) and its best matches were
against more balanced games (RE4, Chrono Cross). And there's also
potential bandwagoning, ect. I don't know, I'm okay with
Oblivion>MGS2 but in general its results just lead to some weird
stats. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. (edited 12/13/2015 11:45:20 PM)report |
Well,
SMRPG's lack of European presence could certainly contribute to its
wackiness somewhat, but I doubt it'll throw things off majorly. Some
things might end up a bit over- or underrated, but that's up to you to
discern! --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Is Resident Evil 4 not strong in Europe for some reason? --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! DpObliVion is the new greatone. Congratulations to our Guru overlord. |
Well it lost the night vote to SMRPG --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Jeeze, I look away for two and a half hours and OoT is a stone's throw away from having SMRPG outvoted by almost 2 to 1. http://i.imgur.com/zcSB0QT.png |
Hmm,
I'm pretty happy with tonight's early results. Doesn't look like
spillover is hurting SMRPG, as OOT is the one that is rising fast. It
means CT might not be wrecked by spillover in a bonus match. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
LordoftheMorons posted... Well it lost the night vote to SMRPG Well, I knew that, but I know it was released there. It must not have sold well being a GC exclusive for a long time or something. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! DpObliVion is the new greatone. Congratulations to our Guru overlord. |
You know, SMRPG...you can also go up in percent. Games do it all the time! --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
red sox 777 posted... Hmm, I'm pretty happy with tonight's early results. Doesn't look like spillover is hurting SMRPG, as OOT is the one that is rising fast. It means CT might not be wrecked by spillover in a bonus match. I'm guessing the "casual" spillover probably favors OoT while the people who are really invested probably antivoted it (and would be frontloaded). --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
KamikazePotato posted... You know, SMRPG...you can also go up in percent. Games do it all the time! And no increase in percentage for OoT on the most recent update. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
LordoftheMorons posted... red sox 777 posted...Hmm, I'm pretty happy with tonight's early results. Doesn't look like spillover is hurting SMRPG, as OOT is the one that is rising fast. It means CT might not be wrecked by spillover in a bonus match. As long as there isn't a big Zelda rally heading into the end of the poll, I think CT will be fine. Undertale voters might even favor CT more than expected, because Ocarina of Time has been their true enemy, the final boss, the whole contest. OOT has been winning awards for greatest of all time, everywhere, for 17 years, and this is GameFAQs, the Legend of Zelda's home base, where it "always wins." Everything has been leading up to this final. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Ehhhhh
I really wouldn't wanna be CT with that kind of spillover. Even if it
ends up winning an ultimate CT/OoT bonus poll with, say, 51%, I'd
postulate it to be even stronger in a more normal, low votal setting
(any bonus poll is going to have big numbers compared to the vast
majority of the contest, of course). --- Welcome to the League of Antivotes. |
Karma Hunter posted... Ehhhhh I really wouldn't wanna be CT with that kind of spillover. Even if it ends up winning an ultimate CT/OoT bonus poll with, say, 51%, I'd postulate it to be even stronger in a more normal, low votal setting (any bonus poll is going to have big numbers compared to the vast majority of the contest, of course). 51% or 55% is all the same to me. It's The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time, if Chrono Trigger beats it, it's our #1 game, and time to celebrate. Plus, any CT/OOT final would have high votals. Possible rallying too, but Zelda has only really rallied against Draven before, so they'll probably hold their fire if the result isn't shocking or if Link isn't acting as Hero of GameFAQs. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
I
think we should do CT/FFVII for the first day of bonus matches (maybe
we can throw in like 1 other match that won't have any rally potential)
and then do CT/OoT on the second day after the contest. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
I...
don't think it's a coincidence that FF7/OoT 2004 aside (a match in a
contest plagued by artificially depressed votals due to CJayC screwing
up the site), every time Zelda has been truly threatened in a contest
setting it's produced a new benchmark of total votes. Cloud/Link 2003,
Zelda/Final Fantasy 2006, L-Block/Link/Cloud/Snake 2007... even
Link/Shepard/Draven 2013 is far more exceptional than it appears at
first blush, after you compare it to the rest of that contest's normal
matches. Zelda's gonna rally. Whether the intensity skyrockets up enough to win or not is an open question (I say it very much will be), but it's in Link's nature to be a jealous king, resentful of even token swipes at the throne. People rallied for friggin' Link/Jay Solano, for crying out loud. --- Welcome to the League of Antivotes. (edited 12/14/2015 12:37:29 AM)report |
-LusterSoldier- posted... I think we should do CT/FFVII for the first day of bonus matches (maybe we can throw in like 1 other match that won't have any rally potential) and then do CT/OoT on the second day after the contest. This gets my vote too. --- Every day the rest of your life is changed forever. |
Karma Hunter posted... People rallied for friggin' Link/Jay Solano, for crying out loud. ah good ol' andymancan --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
So
I just checked the updates for tonight. 57.52% at the freeze? And
2900 votes! It's gone up 7%, and we're not even in the dead zone yet. If a fellow SNES RPG can hold up this well, I'm not afraid of spillover anymore. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
man how much must Tumblr hate LTTP if it gets beat down by spillover and SMRPG doesn't --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
I think Mario RPG has a decent amount of reasons to benefit from Undertale spillover, and Melee spillover could be a wash. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! DpObliVion is the new greatone. Congratulations to our Guru overlord. |
So, how viable would a tumblr-Zelda rally be? I know that didn't exactly work out well for Pokemon, but I also don't remember people getting anyone significant for that. Having a quick look at tumblr most of the recent Zelda posts seem to get more notes on average (hundreds up to lower thousands) than Pokemon, at least right now. I think getting even one relatively big page to post about the contest could get the ball rolling. "warriorofzelda" seems to get a fair amount of notes per post, "the-legend-of-zelda-series" page also seem to be fairly popular. I don't use tumblr so I have no idea how to actually reach any of these pages, but if anyone wants to try might as well start making some efforts now. There's a Zelda Informer tumblr but it doesn't look very popular at all so that one would be best reaching through the actual website. At this point I'm just throwing ideas and looking for any ways to make tomorrow interesting. |
Well
the issue is that you can't really just decide to start a tumblr rally.
You need to have an influential blog or a direct path to an influential
blog (that would actually be interested in promoting your rally).
Without a preexisting presence on the site you can't really do anything. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
http://40.media.tumblr.com/e2ceb56c5f9f5d11ef4213cb848b5f99/tumblr_nzccc6pKj51uhov31o1_1280.png This is wild. Someone made Sans vs Link in honor of the match tomorrow. --- Anything is possible when your man smells like Old Spice and not a lady. |
-LusterSoldier- posted... I think we should do CT/FFVII for the first day of bonus matches (maybe we can throw in like 1 other match that won't have any rally potential) and then do CT/OoT on the second day after the contest. I'd personally like to see CT/OoT and FF7/Mario 64, think the latter would tell us a good bit for the Undertale quarter of the bracket since the top three Mario games are already pretty close together in strength. Also, I'm hoping OoT gets crushed tomorrow. It'd be hilarious if Undertale beats it down more than any other game it faced. --- Not_Wylvane |
