GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1253
XIII_rocks posted... You know when I see the lead just weirdly hovering around 1500 I start wondering if there is some cheating involved. Then this also imply Melee cheated too, since it also kept a 1000 lead around most of the match. But yeah both rallies are pretty consistent. (edited 12/13/2015 4:35:05 AM)report |
Yeah,
maybe. It's just strange - 2 hours and 25 minutes ago, Melee took the
lead under 1500 for the first time. In that period, UT has gained...23
votes. So like we have this ridiculous rally that's bringing in votals that are literally beyond anything the site has ever seen in 20 years, and the difference between them over the last 140-min period has been 23 votes? That's just strange. Like with this sheer volume of votes (almost 10k, and definitely over 10k next update) it's odd that they've been so closely tied together ever since UT grabbed a healthy lead. --- Such a lust for revenge (edited 12/13/2015 4:43:23 AM)report |
Honestly, the weirdest thing for me is how Undertale is so different from the first 4 matches. I mean obviously it was never in the lead at the beginning compared to SM64 and Melee, but this is still weird to go from "almost Draven rallies" to "consistent the entire day". I don't think this mean anything for cheating (that would be weird to change the pattern towards the end, especially since nothing was found after the first 4 matches with the backloaded pattern), but I don't think Undertale being ahead can have such a dramatic effect either. And I don't think the backwagon effect is so powerful as to make it be able to fight Melee's rallies with just that and some minor rallies. (edited 12/13/2015 4:48:59 AM)report |
It's
not odd at all. It's been pretty clear that Undertale has been
"finding" whatever votes it needs to win. I read through this stats
topic and I can't believe anyone still thinks Undertale won't win this
contest with ease. These Undertale "rallies" have been suspicious since
it's first match and anyone who thinks Melee or OOT can win is just
being delusional. --- Yay - DpObliVion is the guru champion of awesomeness. |
I
really can't see how OoT is going to beat either of these games. The
votals these two are getting are f***ing insane, and OoT hasn't pulled
off anything close. This clearly isn't the same Melee from 2009, so I really doubt SFF will be a factor for a potential OoT/Melee match when natural strength will play, what, 20% of the actual vote intake? --- Not_Wylvane (edited 12/13/2015 4:50:55 AM)report |
I like how dumb 4ways look in hindsight. Okay the first time around I guess, but lol. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
Well,
SFF on reddit, for example, may make more people downvote the rally
thread instead of upvoting it, causing any rally to be weaker/last a
shorter amount of time. But yeah I'm not as confident as others here
that OoT would stomp rallied Melee into oblivion. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Averia posted... Honestly, the weirdest thing for me is how Undertale is so different from the first 4 matches. The only reason why nothing was found is because nothing was looked for. --- Yay - DpObliVion is the guru champion of awesomeness. |
cyko posted... Averia posted...Honestly, the weirdest thing for me is how Undertale is so different from the first 4 matches. Yes but I mean from an eventual cheater point of view. Why would you change ? If it worked 4 times, it will work until the end. Imagine how bad it would be if Allen suddenly said Undertale had been cheating the whole time but since it's so far in, they can only put SM64 in it's place or something. At this point, even if it was spotted, he would probably be reluctant to reveal it. Using an entirely new pattern is doubly risky, in that not only can it reveal something more, but it's easier to remove votes/call for stuffing "Undertale was legit before, this is just this round that there was stuffing". And it doesn't seem like this pattern is that much stronger than before. (the leads are even smaller). So basically, this is a weird change from a legit and from a cheating perspective. (edited 12/13/2015 4:59:19 AM)report |
I just checked the results. This is what I have to say: Hope Undertale wins the whole thing! Come on now! I also read all the stats topics. So from what I gather: 1)Undertale had a 940 vote update. What the Hell? 2)Site crushed for around 5 minutes. DDos attack! 3)Vote totals for the 1st hour were higher than the 2007 final match? Insane! 4)Some people want to rally more for Melee? You don't have a soul? FF 7 is my favorite game but if it was here I would still vote Undertale! What is wrong with you people? --- Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing? 124 Gurus were better than me in BGE 2015 contest! |
While there are quite a few Undertale fans here a poll among board regulars would probably be an easy win for Melee --- BGE3: Today's Matches SM64 > FFVII Points 211/320 |
Safer_777 posted... Some people want to rally more for Melee? You don't have a soul? FF 7 is my favorite game but if it was here I would still vote Undertale! What is wrong with you people? Some of us don't like rallies? Or like Melee better? --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
cyko posted... Averia posted...Honestly, the weirdest thing for me is how Undertale is so different from the first 4 matches. yup. Also remember that the whole purpose of these silly contests is to attract external traffic to a dying, obsolete, 20th-century web site, NOT to conduct a fair and scientific survey on gamer preferences. Obviously some higher ups at CNET/CBS thought it was worthwhile to drop $1-3K on contest prizes every 1-2 years to pay for all this external traffic. With this goal in mind, they're NOT going to reverse their progress by banning rallies, discarding fraudulent votes, etc. -- the more the merrier & the bigger their bonus paychecks when they hit their traffic KPIs. --- ok. |
When KPIs are mentioned in the stats topic, that's when you know things have gone too far. --- Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0 |
First time thing tournament I'm voting against Undertale. But Melee is my favourite game of all time. |
Ugh can we get the conspiracy theories out of the stats topic? (One time bursts in traffic are completely irrelevant to a website, by the way). --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
It's
been more of a one time burst. Ignoring matches with rallies and its
spill over vote totals in the other matches have gone up significantly.
Whether they stay after the contest is over is a different matter. --- BGE3: Today's Matches SM64 > FFVII Points 211/320 |
*looks at chart* man melee you surrendered the lead that quickly? --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? |
Votals at the start were insane. Melee was bringing in a ton too but it wasn't enough. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Melee is finally starting to make consistent cuts that a random Undertale spike can't get back in one update. |
cyko posted... It's not odd at all. It's been pretty clear that Undertale has been "finding" whatever votes it needs to win. I read through this stats topic and I can't believe anyone still thinks Undertale won't win this contest with ease. These Undertale "rallies" have been suspicious since it's first match and anyone who thinks Melee or OOT can win is just being delusional. I'll be suirprised if Undertale doesn't go over 60% the rest of the way. |
This is meaningless since this is far from undertale's best time,but Melee is threatening Mass Effect 3's number #2 spot ! |
Averia posted... Honestly, the weirdest thing for me is how Undertale is so different from the first 4 matches. It helps that a decent portion of the board has actually up and bought Undertale since the tournament began just to see what the hype has been about. That has to account for at least a non-insignificant portion of the votes. (edited 12/13/2015 5:44:14 AM)report |
Averia posted... This is meaningless since this is far from undertale's best time,but Melee is threatening Mass Effect 3's number #2 spot ! Oh no Undertale's trends should be different because it's the weekend (I believe all previous Undertale matches were weekday matches?). I guess this would be its worst time regardless, though. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Can someone PLEASE try and calculate how much votes are coming from Russia? I know it might sound racist but it's not a secret that most illegal stuff on the net like VPN, private trackers and so on are in Russia Undertale is being hugely favored in Russia in every damn match it was there, and I don't believe it's only tumblr rally Unless of course we are talking about a small amount of votes, but for this we need to calculate the possible votes it has in Russia (and I have no idea how to do it) --- 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
In
a normal day vote on the weekend we see trends being diluted since it
is spread over the entire day, but with how Tumblr works we could see a
scenario where people have more time to tell other people to vote. We
could still see an exponential rise throughout the day assuming Melee
can keep up and Undertale doesn't run out ralliers. --- BGE3: Today's Matches SM64 > FFVII Points 211/320 |
Nanis23 posted... Can someone PLEASE try and calculate how much votes are coming from Russia? Based on successive rational approximations of .8267 (the current fraction of the Russian vote going to Undertale), and using the fact that the approximation should be correct to four significant figures, these are the possible Russian vote totals: 75 202 277 352 427 779 1206 3191 4397 5603 10000 --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Nanis23 posted... Can someone PLEASE try and calculate how much votes are coming from Russia? I have checked and the results in Russia didn't change in one update, so I'm assuming there were no russian votes this update. (edited 12/13/2015 6:01:54 AM)report |
Can someone PLEASE try and calculate how much votes are coming from Russia? It's hard to tell because it is 1v1, at best I can say it is a multiple of 209. To put it into perspective Russia had a multiple of 190 yesterday, but today's vote total is already higher. --- BGE3: Today's Matches SM64 > FFVII Points 211/320 |
Nice
to wake up and see Melee down by roughly the same amount as when I went
to bed. Undertale peaked at 1934, but Melee's gotten it back down to
the low 1300s, and we've still yet to see its biggest move. Undertale
leads, which hurts its own rally potential, and Melee is well within
striking distance. Let's go Melee. Ya gotta believe. --- NEW YORK METS - 2015 National League Champions |
LordoftheMorons posted... Nanis23 posted...Can someone PLEASE try and calculate how much votes are coming from Russia? So now that we know those are possible, by next update(s) we can calculate how it changes and take the most possible outcome or it's pretty much impossible to calculate? --- 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
If
we get another Russian vote soon I can probably get it, yeah (under the
reasonable assumption that the number of additional votes will be
small). --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Also one thing I don't get is why the Undertale rally at the beginning of this match was so..powerful But against SM64 it wasn't anything special It's like they knew that Mario 64 was supposed to be weak and Smash was supposed to be really strong? They are not supposed to know this stuff, they are more casual than casuals --- 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
Nanis23 posted... LordoftheMorons posted...Nanis23 posted...Can someone PLEASE try and calculate how much votes are coming from Russia? It has been 3 updates in a row where Russia had the exact same %. So either there has been no votes in 15 minutes (which makes 75 seems more likely) or it's unlikely coincidences. |
I'm pretty sure the maps don't update as frequently as votals, but I may be wrong. --- "Hamas isn't really a terror organization." -Terran [Evil Republican] Play Der Langrisser. |
Only
about 1/50 of the total vote for the match was cast in the last 15
minutes, so getting no Russian votes would be well within statistical
noise if it was 75. The next few are possible but not that likely. I
agree that 75 is the best guess. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Russian vote changed, I'll recalculate --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
I'm
not actually getting anything close to the old numbers. I'm guessing
continued fractions don't actually give you all rational approximations
to a given real like a thought they did. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
DpObliVion posted... Nice to wake up and see Melee down by roughly the same amount as when I went to bed. Undertale peaked at 1934, but Melee's gotten it back down to the low 1300s, and we've still yet to see its biggest move. Undertale leads, which hurts its own rally potential, and Melee is well within striking distance. Lovin' this. Go Melee! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7cHngfzF80 --- "I'll admit that I made one or two sarcastic remarks in this topic, but in all serious I akin Undertale to fascism." -ArgaiRonso |
Nanis23 posted... Also one thing I don't get is why the Undertale rally at the beginning of this match was so..powerful I would theorize that since this is the semi-finals and it's the weekend that more people than usual were ready to go from the very beginning. --- "I'll admit that I made one or two sarcastic remarks in this topic, but in all serious I akin Undertale to fascism." -ArgaiRonso |
LordoftheMorons posted... I'm not actually getting anything close to the old numbers. I'm guessing continued fractions don't actually give you all rational approximations to a given real like a thought they did. Oh well, this is unfortunate Thanks though! On unrelated note, why couldn't this match be two days later? with Smash announcement hype and discussion etc --- 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
I think I got it. It was .8267 of 202 -> 167 - 35 Now it's 0.8235 of 204 -> 168 - 36 |
Nanis23 posted... On unrelated note, why couldn't this match be two days later? with Smash announcement hype and discussion etc oh god that's right if Melee gets to the finals we're gonna be dealing with Sephiroth's announcement --- "I'll admit that I made one or two sarcastic remarks in this topic, but in all serious I akin Undertale to fascism." -ArgaiRonso |
Hey
look, Undertale winning again. Not sure why people are still convinced
it's not going to win it all, this was a foregone conclusion the minute
it beat Pokemon. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy -trancer1 lol xstats |
We
still have a lot of hours left. Plus Melee has a huge rally too. If not
for Undertale Melee would easily reach the finals and maybe even win.
Yeah I know back fire and all that but still. --- Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing? 124 Gurus were better than me in BGE 2015 contest! |
Just woke up and Undertale is still leading? impressive, I though it had no chance against popular Melee twitter rallies. |
Melee just needed to slow down a bit so it could pick up even bigger steam later on. --- NEW YORK METS - 2015 National League Champions |
Averia posted... I think I got it. Oh Well nothing to see here, Russia is legit >_> --- 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
Undertale
won a few updates, but Melee won that one. Undertale isn't gonna pull
away with this. Melee's just waiting to swing it. --- NEW YORK METS - 2015 National League Champions |
DpObliVion posted... Undertale won a few updates, but Melee won that one. Undertale isn't gonna pull away with this. Melee's just waiting to swing it. Melee should wait as long as posible before taking the lead if it wants to win. In a rally battle, the one behind is at an advantage, so it should try to take the lead as late as possible. (edited 12/13/2015 6:38:56 AM)report |