GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1251
Karma Hunter posted... This is... huh, though. MGS3 is THIS much stronger than RE4 now? To say nothing of MGS2? It beat MGS after all. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
I will never stop spoiling for the rematch this is how Crono/Vincent trends started isn't it --- Goddamn Metal Gear Solid 3 |
Also, if you assume MGS2 = MGS4, SMRPG gets 45.55% on SSBM, which would put it a little above KH2. That would also mean KH2 beats RE4 rather easily now. Of course, if you assume MGS2 > MGS4, those numbers on Melee only go up for SMRPG. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
It's
too bad that maybe Div 7/8 aren't as s***ty as everyone's been ragging
on them for, but barring a miracle performance from MGS3 they'll
probably never be able to prove it. --- Goddamn Metal Gear Solid 3 |
I
want to say MGS ~= MGS3 with neutral pics, but it occurs to me that MGS
is just naturally going to have worse match pics than MGS3 and that
should probably just be considered natural strength. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Karma Hunter posted... It's too bad that maybe Div 7/8 aren't as s***ty as everyone's been ragging on them for, but barring a miracle performance from MGS3 they'll probably never be able to prove it. As far as the strength of those games yes they are s***ty. Whoever makes it out will get doubled by a weak oot. --- http://k09.kn3.net/1256263BF.gif |
Well,
thanks to GOTD, reasonable (albeit obviously imperfect) adjustments are
pretty doable, and it'll make SMRPG, MGS1, MGS3, and Oblivion (to say
nothing of BioShock) all look pretty good! --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
LordoftheMorons posted... I want to say MGS ~= MGS3 with neutral pics, but it occurs to me that MGS is just naturally going to have worse match pics than MGS3 and that should probably just be considered natural strength. Well, regardless, it can get better than it had this contest. MGS3 is gonna have the pic advantage in most cases but it's not like MGS1 is incapable of holding its own. An MGS1 codec pic could possibly have turned things, though I suppose we'll never know at least until they have a rematch throwdown --- Goddamn Metal Gear Solid 3 |
Using
OoT/LTTP, assuming no SFF, MGS3 would get 32.68% on OoT based on its
GOTD match with Majora. That would put SMRPG at 34.60% on OoT. That
would put SMRPG in between FFIX and KH1. That feels kinda low, all things considered though. Maybe OoT is laying on a little SFF here. Well, if you give MGS3 some benefit of the doubt and say it'd do a little better on Majora based on the ratio it now has with RE4 (which would actually bump it up to 45.88% on Majora), that would bump MGS3 up to 35.42% on OOT (a little above FFIX) and SMRPG would be at 37.40% (a little below Super Metroid) on OOT. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Why was that s***ty codec pic used twice? Also allen needs to stop giving games huge pic advantages. You know a ton of people voting have never played the damn games. The me2 pic was absolute s***. --- http://k09.kn3.net/1256263BF.gif |
Karma Hunter posted... LordoftheMorons posted...I want to say MGS ~= MGS3 with neutral pics, but it occurs to me that MGS is just naturally going to have worse match pics than MGS3 and that should probably just be considered natural strength. I had already done dueling radio pics for RE4/MGS, but I needed them to actually make it to this match for them to get used. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! Future 2015 Guru Contest runner-up. |
I'm pretty sure that if OoT's not scoring some SFF here, it's at the very least scoring some decent spillover points on LttP. e: Which raises the question of how well MGS3 would be doing right now without spillover and well all I can say is I'm happy that it's not MGS1 in this position right now --- Goddamn Metal Gear Solid 3 (edited 12/12/2015 12:28:24 AM)report |
I would be extremely surprised if spillover wasn't boosting OoT based on Majora --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
So hmm I read some post that said that because Undertale-Melee is on a weekend, it should be better for Melee as there isn't ASV Isn't it actually worse..? that tumblr people are actually browsing tumblr all f***ing day? --- 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
People are using arguments that don't make any sense to prop up Melee? Well I never. --- Goddamn Metal Gear Solid 3 |
Karma Hunter posted... I will never stop spoiling for the rematch My trend analogs are usually very accurate, but they were far far off for Crono/Vincent 2008. That match was basically a miracle trend wise. Speaking of which, I look forward to Crono doubling Vincent next contest. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
I'm
having second thoughts about supporting Undertale. If Melee wins, it
means rallied Melee > rallied Pokemon pretty clearly. And
establishes CT as our #3 game behind rallied Melee and OOT.
That's...not so bad. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
more like it means CT will be #100 in the raw stats after OoT creams Melee --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Yes, come back to the side of justice To the side of the LAW --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
It also means there's no easy comparison for CT toppling OoT. Better Undertale squeak out a win against Melee by the skin of its teeth --- Goddamn Metal Gear Solid 3 |
LeonhartFour posted... more like it means CT will be #100 in the raw stats after OoT creams Melee Yeah, I find it hard to believe Melee could ever rally against OoT, where as a close loss to Undertale keeps CT around Top 5-8. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! Future 2015 Guru Contest runner-up. (edited 12/12/2015 12:52:51 AM)report |
Though
to work out best for CT statwise, Melee needs to not make Undertale
angry and let it have the win early. Let the ralliers know! - though a
Cassandra Prophecy this may be, we have the obligation to tell the
world~ --- Goddamn Metal Gear Solid 3 |
Numbers on Undertale are meaningless They're related more to rally potential and even the distribution of votes across the day (as we saw with SM64) than they are with gamefaqs base strength. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
We still have a responsibility to report those meaningless numbers to the world in the form of raw x-stats --- Goddamn Metal Gear Solid 3 |
indeed I cannot let these numbers go to waste we have to let the world know how great Mass Effect 3 is compared to all the silly games they like --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
http://nintendoeverything.com/tumblrs-most-reblogged-games-of-2015/ >_>...................................... --- 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
Holy Dragon Age Batman Maybe people will get a DA:O rally to catch fire next contest now that would be a result worth seeing --- Goddamn Metal Gear Solid 3 |
Undertale stats may not be linear, but they could well be transitive still! And, there are almost no strong games on OOT's half of the bracket. Melee just has to beat out LTTP's number today by 0.75%, and CT gets #3 in the stats. If it beats Undertale, it will get a huge amount of momentum that will make that extremely likely. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Karma Hunter posted... Though to work out best for CT statwise, Melee needs to not make Undertale angry and let it have the win early. Let the ralliers know! - though a Cassandra Prophecy this may be, we have the obligation to tell the world~ Or just get a bigger lead than Pokemon and lose by less at the end. It's a bit riskier, but you saw how Pokemon got way closer than SMW and Fallout even after UT pulled out its strongest form yet. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. (edited 12/12/2015 1:12:42 AM)report |
I
wouldn't count on Undertale to dawdle like that again. If it goes Final
Form earlier than anticipated it could turn into a veritable bloodbath
for Melee. --- Goddamn Metal Gear Solid 3 |
red sox 777 posted... Karma Hunter posted...Though to work out best for CT statwise, Melee needs to not make Undertale angry and let it have the win early. Let the ralliers know! - though a Cassandra Prophecy this may be, we have the obligation to tell the world~ If melee rallies are consistent and the lead is bigger it doesn't matter what Undertale does. Melee will be able to neutralise 400 + updates. --- http://k09.kn3.net/1256263BF.gif |
Karma Hunter posted... I wouldn't count on Undertale to dawdle like that again. If it goes Final Form earlier than anticipated it could turn into a veritable bloodbath for Melee. You keep saying that like it will happen. It won't. Either melee wins easily or Undertale win with 50.3 % --- http://k09.kn3.net/1256263BF.gif |
Europe seems to be awake now. --- Hello, I'm Chris! https://media.giphy.com/media/2ZtIpjwFFjLHLNREpCU/giphy.gif |
Plus,
I care more about actual strength perception than nominal x-stats. I
don't like this idea that ANY Nintendo game can just rally 20k votes if
it needs to. It seems clearly wildly exaggerated to me, but Melee doing
what Pokémon couldn't would show conclusively that that idea isn't
true, that Melee is special with OOT. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Chyeah right, 50.3% ain't happenin' that would put SSBM over ME3 and that's too stupid for even the worst posters here to believe --- Goddamn Metal Gear Solid 3 |
Uh
it's pretty obvious that not every Nintendo game can rally votes on
that scale. But Pokemon can. This isn't in dispute. Squirtle being
rallied thousands of votes to put him over Cloud is a thing that
happened. Pokemon rallies are special. As special as SSBM's (or more)? Well, we should have a better idea of that tomorrow. --- Goddamn Metal Gear Solid 3 (edited 12/12/2015 1:24:26 AM)report |
LeonhartFour posted... Those are two straight big cuts for MGS3. False hope is still hope? --- 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
Karma Hunter posted... I wouldn't count on Undertale to dawdle like that again. If it goes Final Form earlier than anticipated it could turn into a veritable bloodbath for Melee. How long can UT keep up that Final Form and how potent can it be if it lasts more hours? It's a Sunday, so it will probably come earlier, but there won't be a concentrated ASV either. It's a legit, organic, rally, it isn't something someone can turn on or off with a switch. Remember it only swung 11k against Pokemon. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Now you're getting it. (MGS3 has a nonzero chance but it relies on SMRPG being propped up by spillover up to now and that having a big fade by the time the sun rises, allowing it to continue to gain with the day vote) --- Goddamn Metal Gear Solid 3 |
Karma Hunter posted... Uh it's pretty obvious that not every Nintendo game can rally votes on that scale. But Pokemon can. This isn't in dispute. Squirtle being rallied thousands of votes to put him over Cloud is a thing that happened. Pokemon has demonstrated rallies in the area of 10k votes (gross, not net). Smash has done 20k. With a rally the size of Cloud/Squitle or even RBY/UT, CT still beats Melee easily and probably never loses an hour. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
And
looking at this match being currently 5,700 votes ahead of SMRPG/RE4...
hmm. If that seriously favored SMRPG by a huge margin that would be
very big. But there's no guarantee such spillover wouldn't continue to a
lesser extent throughout the day even if it did. Guess I won't totally count MGS3 out. A 1% chance sounds fair. And about the odds they probably gave Snake in Operation: Snake Eater! --- Goddamn Metal Gear Solid 3 |
Achromatic posted... Europe seems to be awake now. Ive been awake for a few hours. --- http://k09.kn3.net/1256263BF.gif |
Under 800! It took 45 minutes to cut 100 votes, so it better pick up the pace if it wants to take the lead before morning comes back around. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
The
thing is, LTTP has been losing percentage to OOT. Whereas last round
it rose against MM faster than FFVII would. 5.5% from 1 AM to the end -
that's more than Crono/Vincent 2008. It suggests the spillover is
much, much, weaker today. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
red sox 777 posted... Karma Hunter posted...Uh it's pretty obvious that not every Nintendo game can rally votes on that scale. But Pokemon can. This isn't in dispute. Squirtle being rallied thousands of votes to put him over Cloud is a thing that happened. I don't find your argument that Pokemon rallied less than Melee particularly compelling. The numbers have too many holes and rely on too many suppositions for me to grant them. RBY/UT was way more high-profile than Squirtle/Cloud, especially since so many more people were behind it and the activity it generated on reddit, /v/, you name it, was much higher. I am totally behind Melee bringing everything it had against CT and more. But I don't want excuses if at the end of the day ("Undertale got stronger than the Pokemon match!") if it gets its clock cleaned. --- Goddamn Metal Gear Solid 3 |
Well, it makes sense there would be less spillover today. The rally was much more frontloaded than previous rounds. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
red sox 777 posted... The thing is, LTTP has been losing percentage to OOT. Whereas last round it rose against MM faster than FFVII would. 5.5% from 1 AM to the end - that's more than Crono/Vincent 2008. It suggests the spillover is much, much, weaker today. LttP's night vote just appears to perhaps be very, very bad, even by Zelda standards. I'd wait to see if it can make a substantial recovery. e: There's also the matter of OoT antivotes wearing off to consider. --- Goddamn Metal Gear Solid 3 (edited 12/12/2015 1:37:04 AM)report |
I'd like to see SMRPG/LTTP now just to see how the night vote goes. also to see if SMRPG could win --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif (edited 12/12/2015 1:37:35 AM)report |
