GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1251
Let's make this the greatest 24 hours of our lives, Jack! ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/ ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Chrono Cross legitimized --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png LongLiveraytan |
Someone posted this before, but I think it needs to be reposted due to epicness. ME3 is higher than Mario 64 in x-stat ME3: 49.05% against Undertale http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6072-best-game-ever-day-6-undertale-vs-mass-effect-3 Mario 64: 48.67% against Undertale http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6172-best-game-ever-day-37-quarterfinal-undertale-vs-super-mario-64 No other games had done a higher percentage against Undertale than ME3, it's going to end up being only second to Undertale in x-stat after the contest is finished, it had exceeded my expectations. --- Rudimentary creatures of blood, and flesh, you touch my balls, fumbling in ignorance, incapable of understanding. (edited 12/11/2015 10:27:21 PM)report |
SMRPG is putting up more on MGS:3 than Paper Mario put up on Tales of Symphonia. This site is ridiculous sometimes |
sniped by pj, I am retired --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
Luster, do you think Reddit wouldn't have rallied for Draven if we had gotten Link/Draven as the bonus match last contest? They were rallying to get it to win the poll Allen posted on Board 8. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif (edited 12/11/2015 10:33:54 PM)report |
MGS3 is studiously making sure that people don't get any false hope (which is still hope) for it. Not one update yet. --- Goddamn Metal Gear Solid 3 |
geeeeetttttt dunked on --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png LongLiveraytan |
Yeah, nothing to see here. I'm going to bed. |
LeonhartFour posted... Luster, do you think Reddit wouldn't have rallied for Draven if we had gotten Link/Draven as the bonus match last year? Well, the LoL fanbase is on a completely different level of being insane, so they would have rallied in that match. I can't think of any other fanbases besides League and Undertale that would have rallied in a bonus match. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
Do
you think Melee fans wouldn't rally in a bonus match if it looked like
it was going to lose? They rallied for it in a match it was winning
55/45. They would. Same for Pokemon fans. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif (edited 12/11/2015 10:36:14 PM)report |
Maybe
Melee fans would have tried to rally, but rallies for Pokemon RBY
wouldn't have worked out very well because the Gen 1 games are hated by
some segment of the hardcore Pokemon fanbase. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
If
Pokemon RBY had to be placed into a bonus match, it should be against
OoT to halt any rally attempts because the backfire rate against OoT
should be huge. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
-LusterSoldier- posted... If Pokemon RBY had to be placed into a bonus match, it should be against OoT then what's the point of having a bonus match --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
I'm pretty sure this much arguing for multi-matches with RBY involved is just an ulterior motive to see the spillover <.< Like, if we want quality matches, we don't want multi-matches at all anyway! We've seen how polluted they get. --- Goddamn Metal Gear Solid 3 |
I
mean, the multi-poll format is good for getting a lot of bonus matches,
but you guys so scared of spillover from rallies and I don't think
Allen would give us more than 2 days of bonus matches. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
I'm not scared of spillover from rallies. They'll just make some of the bonus matches pointless, like Undertale made Mario 3/Pokemon pointless. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
That was actually MGS3's first cut, though the updater didn't catch it. e: there it goes --- Goddamn Metal Gear Solid 3 (edited 12/11/2015 10:43:15 PM)report |
guys can't we just have big rigs/operation shadow/cory in the house like allen clearly planned --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
Yeah, I'm still going to give MGS3 a shot at this. Although if its day vote is as horrendous as it was against BioShock and MGS1, it could lead going into the day and still lose by 5000 votes. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
At
the very least, we should avoid putting games into bonus matches that
have a high chance of getting a rally. I really would like to see RBY
in a bonus match to get a read on its strength. It should be placed
against OoT to maximize the backfire rate on an RBY rally. I don't
really see issues with placing 2 top tier Mario games against each other
(like SMB3/SMW) since the Mario games are hard to rally for and you're
going to have a hard time getting a rally to favor one of those games
over the other one to any major extent. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
SSJReaper posted... Someone posted this before, but I think it needs to be reposted due to epicness. You might find this amusing: In 2004, Link got 87.83% on CATS, followed by 87.90% on Ganondorf the very next round. =P --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
An OoT/Pokemon match is pointless. Pokemon can only win if it rallies. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
...so is it impossible for games this contest to score major amounts of SFF or something --- Goddamn Metal Gear Solid 3 |
LeonhartFour posted... An OoT/Pokemon match is pointless. Pokemon can only win if it rallies. You got any ideas for seeing RBY in a bonus match, but in a way that prevents it from getting a rally? --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
Karma Hunter posted... ...so is it impossible for games this contest to score major amounts of SFF or something That seems to be the case! I'd argue we got some in FFVI/FFVII because it puts Wind Waker way too close to Smash 4 otherwise, but it could also be rally spillover. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
No, there's no way to put R/B/Y in a bonus match without the threat of a rally. If you want to put it up against Melee or something and let them have a rally war, that'd probably be the most "entertaining" option. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
The only time that RBY even rallied was against Undertale. In every other match, no RBY rally showed up. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
R/B/Y
didn't need another rally in any other match. The Undertale rally did
the work for it in every other match. Most people won't rally in a
situation where it doesn't need it. We saw that today with Undertale.
The rally didn't hit overdrive today because it didn't need to. Melee
fans are the weird exceptions there. And SMRPG keeps pulling out these 58-59% updates out of its hat whenever MGS3 stalls for too long. It's like a timed hit or something. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif (edited 12/11/2015 10:52:20 PM)report |
It's
pretty clear that we need to do 2 days of bonus matches because we want
to avoid Undertale rally spillover from affecting a CT/OoT match. We
need something for first day of bonus matches. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
LeonhartFour posted... Karma Hunter posted......so is it impossible for games this contest to score major amounts of SFF or something ...why do I have the sinking feeling OoT/SMRPG would be an exception to the rule --- Goddamn Metal Gear Solid 3 |
I'm personally hoping SMRPG has a big bandwagon going at that point and does better on OoT than LTTP...! --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
MGS3 with a pretty good cut there. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
Maybe MGS3 can come close to taking the lead before SMRPG buries it when the sun rises! e: yes I know I originally said overnight this is how freudian slips work --- Goddamn Metal Gear Solid 3 (edited 12/11/2015 11:07:36 PM)report |
Hmm...SMRPG is rising in North America and MGS3 is dropping in the UK even as it begins to cut. I still favor SMRPG, but this is the closest anyone's gotten to it yet. The closest RE4 got was 46.24% and the closest Oblivion got was 46% exactly and that was AFTER the Euro vote. MGS3 is already besting those percentages before we hit it in full. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif (edited 12/11/2015 11:08:02 PM)report |
MGS1 would be winning right now damn you unprovable and probably nonexistent rSFF --- Goddamn Metal Gear Solid 3 |
Sad to see MGS go Man this site sometimes... you deserve undertale --- FFX-3 teaser: http://abload.de/img/kciksbombttsvx.gif |
AxemRedRanger posted... guys can't we just have big rigs/operation shadow/cory in the house like allen clearly planned I think that match should happen before the finals. If we had a Battle Bracket challenge or something that required a day gap, that's probably what we would be getting with Superman 64 rounding it out. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! Future 2015 Guru Contest runner-up. |
CT > LttP > FFVI > SMRPG? --- Your signature is automatically appended to the bottom of every post you make. Your 'About Me' message is displayed on your profile page. You can include any in |
HAH I made basically the exact same joke as the opening post here in Tazzy's topic just before opening this one --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
So, like... everything has a better night vote than LttP, is what I'm learning this contest. --- Goddamn Metal Gear Solid 3 |
So apparently MGS3 is only gonna cut percentage, and ineffectively at that. |
Eh,
Oblivion was still languishing at 42.1% at this point in the match and
eventually finished at 45.6%. If MGS3 had more optimistic trends, SMRPG
would be in some serious trouble right now. --- Goddamn Metal Gear Solid 3 |
I
don't mind rallyable things in bonus matches, but please just one match
at a time. Could do without spillover in the bonus matches. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Yeah,
MGS3's problem is that even if it can make a serious run at the lead
tonight, SMRPG will probably dump truck it with the day vote. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
This is... huh, though. MGS3 is THIS much stronger than RE4 now? To say nothing of MGS2? --- Goddamn Metal Gear Solid 3 |
Yeah, apparently this is MGS3 boosting in strength more than MGS1 dropping? Or did RE4 drop? The Paper Mario match says no, but apparently everything RE4 faced is stronger than Paper Mario. Right now, MGS3 is at 52.77% on RE4 and 56.97% on MGS2. This also projects SOTC to beat MGS2 52/48 now. The BioShock match looks weirder and weirder with every round. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif (edited 12/12/2015 12:01:17 AM)report |
