12/10/2015 6:07:15 PM#401
LordoftheMorons posted...
Registered users only would unfortunately create more problems than it would solve. Higher natural votals is really the only effective way to combat rallies, and I don't think that's happening.


This.

Look at 2003's numbers. Undertale wouldn't have won more than one match tops.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest
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I don't get the complaining about the AC pic for Cloud. Considering that's pretty much what he looks like in the Remake, AKA the one reason FFVII could make a comeback, it's probably the best possible pic he could've gotten.
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So Axem's scoring system gives 84/466 ~= .18 for the winner (counting all rounds) compared to 127/448~=.28 for the current scoring system. Linear (1, 2, 3, ...) gives 28/247 ~= .11, and Fibbonacci give 53/295 ~= .18 as well.
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(edited 12/10/2015 6:09:08 PM)report
MechanicalWall posted...
I don't get the complaining about the AC pic for Cloud. Considering that's pretty much what he looks like in the Remake, AKA the one reason FFVII could make a comeback, it's probably the best possible pic he could've gotten.


Indeed, it would be a fair enough picture for Cloud, but Cloud is not the entrant the picture is supposed to be for!
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
Registered users only is also dumb because its dumb.
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LongLiveraytan
I don't know why, but I expected SMRPG to go over RE4.

MGS3 beating 1 is definitely a surprise. I would love for Metal Gear to make it to the finals again..!

Undertale will probably win against SM64, but I expect Melee rallies to boost SM64 significantly, giving Undertale a hard time. I don't see Final Fantasy 7 making it past Melee.

I also really want to see LttP beat OoT, and that may just be the only Zelda game I will vote for over Undertale. Knowing OoT though, it'll beat LttP.
At this point the only thing left for me to enjoy here is rooting for my favorites so bring on the smash rallies and bring down undertale.
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LongLiveraytan
With the 2 matches getting rallies, will we reach 150k votes?
I'm predicting that Smash rallies won't be nearly as strong as last time, resulting in FFVII winning without too much trouble.
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I think people are too quick to write off SM64. This could be a great time to kill Undertale. If everyone rallying for Melee and FF votes SM64, it has a decent chance. Undertale is obviously still the favourite.

Also, I think Undertale voters will favour FF7 especially with remake news. We'll see how that goes.
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I wouldn't go so far as to say Melee and OoT have zero shot at Undertale.

But Super Mario 64 is certainly 100% screwed!
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Goddamn Metal Gear Solid 3
Scarlettail posted...
I'm predicting that Smash rallies won't be nearly as strong as last time, resulting in FFVII winning without too much trouble.


The smash rallies weren't that strong to begin with (<0.5% win vs CT? come on), so in that case we have nothing to worry about
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distance.
DaruniaTheGoron posted...
I think people are too quick to write off SM64. This could be a great time to kill Undertale. If everyone rallying for Melee and FF votes SM64, it has a decent chance. Undertale is obviously still the favourite.

Also, I think Undertale voters will favour FF7 especially with remake news. We'll see how that goes.


FF7 rallying? I don't think FF7 has rallied as much as 300 votes in a match, since these contests started. CT fans have produced a number of rally wins in the last hour, FF7 has never ever won a close match.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.
Ex-Kefiroth posted...
Scarlettail posted...
I'm predicting that Smash rallies won't be nearly as strong as last time, resulting in FFVII winning without too much trouble.


The smash rallies weren't that strong to begin with (<0.5% win vs CT? come on), so in that case we have nothing to worry about


The Smash rallies generated around 20,000 votes. They turned 38-39% for Melee into victory.
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Back during 2013, I remember someone gave us a link to their attempt to rally for Cloud against Squirtle at some Final Fantasy forum. I recall them getting a bunch of "Forget Cloud, I'm voting for Squirtle" responses.
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DaruniaTheGoron posted...
If everyone rallying for Melee and FF votes SM64, it has a decent chance.


The problem is that Melee fans are drooooooooones. The vote gap between Melee/CT and FFVI/FFVII was bigger than the vote gap between Pokemon/Undertale and Mario 64/Skyrim despite those matches bringing in over 110,000 votes.

Melee ain't gonna deign to touch Mario 64 when only Melee is worthy of best game ever votes
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I dunno if anyone has mentioned this before, but between all of the rallies we'll see tomorrow (we could legit have all 4 games getting serious rallies in places), I'm wondering if we could make a run at L-Block's all-time high votal. It also might depend on if the site-wide banner exists and how effective it is in drawing voters. We should definitely get 150K, minimum, though I have a feeling that being a Friday will impact the numbers that the Undertale rally brings in a bit.
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I'd be kind of surprised if we came anywhere near 200,000 votes, but I think 150,000 is within the realm of possibility.
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OOT/UT is the only thing with any chance of touching L-block's record, and its very unlikely.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.
LeonhartFour posted...
DaruniaTheGoron posted...
If everyone rallying for Melee and FF votes SM64, it has a decent chance.


The problem is that Melee fans are drooooooooones. The vote gap between Melee/CT and FFVI/FFVII was bigger than the vote gap between Pokemon/Undertale and Mario 64/Skyrim despite those matches bringing in over 110,000 votes.

Melee ain't gonna deign to touch Mario 64 when only Melee is worthy of best game ever votes

I'd like to think that Mario 64 benefits from also being a Nintendo game, and one that a ton people have played. If these people played Smash Bros 64, odds are they've also played Super Mario 64.

It's different from FF VI/FFVII where the voters likely played neither.
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(edited 12/10/2015 7:42:39 PM)report
TheOneAboveAll posted...
I dunno if anyone has mentioned this before, but between all of the rallies we'll see tomorrow (we could legit have all 4 games getting serious rallies in places), I'm wondering if we could make a run at L-Block's all-time high votal. It also might depend on if the site-wide banner exists and how effective it is in drawing voters. We should definitely get 150K, minimum, though I have a feeling that being a Friday will impact the numbers that the Undertale rally brings in a bit.


Even if there was a site banner for tomorrow's matches, it will end up being the blue site banner, which won't be as effective as the yellow site banner.

For vote totals in tomorrow's matches, I think we will end up taking a step back from the previous Undertale match. I think we could still reach 100000 votes tomorrow, but I don't expect it to outdo Pokemon RBY/Undertale.
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For a match with Undertale in it, it's definitely not going to be the highlight tomorrow. FF7 and Melee will be, and I have a feeling we will be seeing more of Melee's power this round. Should Melee win this, we have a matchup that could break 150k votals, as well as a shot at breaking the back of Undertale.

I expect all hell to break loose in that matchup.
Honestly, I feel like the lower the vote totals, the more that favors FFVII because that probably means Melee's rally is not being as effective.
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Melee used everything it had - everything - in order to go 50/50 with Chrono Trigger. We've seen all its power. It's done. That's also why it's dead in the water against Undertale. But I guess we'll have to go through this again for the fifth round running!
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Goddamn Metal Gear Solid 3
Base votals are around 50,000. Melee's rally last round was around 20,000 votes. I'd guess Pokemon's rally was around 10,000. Undertale's rally last round was around 60,000. 150k is possible, but it would require the matches be close.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.
let's hope Melee just quietly goes down without a fight to FFVII so we don't have to worry about next round
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Undertale beat Pokemon with 51%. Do you think Chrono Trigger would only get 51% on Pokemon? I don't.
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Karma Hunter posted...
Melee used everything it had - everything - in order to go 50/50 with Chrono Trigger. We've seen all its power. It's done. That's also why it's dead in the water against Undertale. But I guess we'll have to go through this again for the fifth round running!


I'm not too sure about that. I feel like that victory over CT near-exclusively relied on the power of Melee's subreddit. If other sources get involved, we could see a more impressive - and aggressive performance.
I don't think Undertale would get 78% on Sonic 2 and it still beat Pokemon.
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12/10/2015 8:02:43 PM#431
Karma Hunter posted...
Melee used everything it had - everything - in order to go 50/50 with Chrono Trigger. We've seen all its power. It's done. That's also why it's dead in the water against Undertale. But I guess we'll have to go through this again for the fifth round running!


You're wrong. That's the sixth time. The fifth time is tomorrow against Mario 64!
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nopenopenopenop posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Melee used everything it had - everything - in order to go 50/50 with Chrono Trigger. We've seen all its power. It's done. That's also why it's dead in the water against Undertale. But I guess we'll have to go through this again for the fifth round running!


I'm not too sure about that. I feel like that victory over CT near-exclusively relied on the power of Melee's subreddit. If other sources get involved, we could see a more impressive - and aggressive performance.


Nope. Smashboards got in on it and so did lots of the vaunted pro tweets.

It pulled out every stop, and its reward is being equal with Chrono Trigger. Undertale is going to embarrass Melee en route to its showdown against the King.
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Goddamn Metal Gear Solid 3
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Melee used everything it had - everything - in order to go 50/50 with Chrono Trigger. We've seen all its power. It's done. That's also why it's dead in the water against Undertale. But I guess we'll have to go through this again for the fifth round running!


You're wrong. That's the sixth time. The fifth time is tomorrow against Mario 64!


Fine fine fair enough

I just don't understand why so many people still have hope unless they literally plan to buy votes to beat Undertale

and even then it'll probably win
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Goddamn Metal Gear Solid 3
-LusterSoldier- posted...
TheOneAboveAll posted...
I dunno if anyone has mentioned this before, but between all of the rallies we'll see tomorrow (we could legit have all 4 games getting serious rallies in places), I'm wondering if we could make a run at L-Block's all-time high votal. It also might depend on if the site-wide banner exists and how effective it is in drawing voters. We should definitely get 150K, minimum, though I have a feeling that being a Friday will impact the numbers that the Undertale rally brings in a bit.


Even if there was a site banner for tomorrow's matches, it will end up being the blue site banner, which won't be as effective as the yellow site banner.

For vote totals in tomorrow's matches, I think we will end up taking a step back from the previous Undertale match. I think we could still reach 100000 votes tomorrow, but I don't expect it to outdo Pokemon RBY/Undertale.


Why does SB use the blue banner if the yellow one is more effective
Big Bob posted...
Undertale beat Pokemon with 51%. Do you think Chrono Trigger would only get 51% on Pokemon? I don't.


I don't think CT can beat Pokemon.
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Goddamn Metal Gear Solid 3
foxhead84 posted...
Why does SB use the blue banner if the yellow one is more effective

I'm guessing because it's more annoying for site users that don't care about the contest. Maybe he'll break it out for the final?
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I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
WhiteLens posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
DaruniaTheGoron posted...
If everyone rallying for Melee and FF votes SM64, it has a decent chance.


The problem is that Melee fans are drooooooooones. The vote gap between Melee/CT and FFVI/FFVII was bigger than the vote gap between Pokemon/Undertale and Mario 64/Skyrim despite those matches bringing in over 110,000 votes.

Melee ain't gonna deign to touch Mario 64 when only Melee is worthy of best game ever votes

I'd like to think that Mario 64 benefits from also being a Nintendo game, and one that a ton people have played. If these people played Smash Bros 64, odds are they've also played Super Mario 64.

It's different from FF VI/FFVII where the voters likely played neither.


Beat me to it. I could definitely see a lot of Melee voters just not caring about a FF matchup at all. Mario is a COMPLETELY different story.

Also, when I say "decent chance" for Mario, I meant like... 5% lol. Still better than 0!

And people used to massively rally for FF7 and Cloud. It's definitely not the same as it used to be, nor is it anywhere near Melee or Undertale level obviously, I'm just saying it'll probably bring in a few thousand votes. Every single vote matters here. Nobody was rallying Mario/Skyrim, if they were Undertale may have lost. It being the quarters with 3 MASSIVELY popular games involved... this is gonna be the biggest rallyfest ever.
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foxhead84 posted...
Why does SB use the blue banner if the yellow one is more effective


The yellow site banner would be more distracting. If the yellow site banner does get used, we will see it for the final.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
Karma Hunter posted...
Melee used everything it had - everything - in order to go 50/50 with Chrono Trigger. We've seen all its power. It's done. That's also why it's dead in the water against Undertale. But I guess we'll have to go through this again for the fifth round running!


Let's go through these numbers, and be generous to Melee:

Melee got around 20,000 Gamefaqs votes and 17,000 rally votes against Chrono Trigger. Against Undertale, it can score about 30% higher on Gamefaqs (going from 39% to 69%), which yields an additional 15,000 votes. There will be only 1 poll instead of 2, which based on the 4 -> 2 transition can boost votals by around 20%. That would add an additional 7,000 votes. Let's give 10% more for this being a semifinal, 10% for a blue site banner, and 10% for hype. That gives us about 16,000 more votes. Bringing us to total Gamefaqs votes of 58,000 for Melee.

Then let's say the rally will be 30% stronger, because rallies tend to get stronger when they've done it before in previous rounds (look at Draven and Undertale). That adds 5,000 more votes. The backfire rate can be 10% instead of 20% against CT, so that adds an additional 2,000 votes. Bringing us to total rally votes of 24,000.

Then let's add backfire votes at 20% backfire, for 70,000 votes from the Undertale rally. That's 14,000. Bringing us to a grand total for Melee of 96,000.

Now, for Undertale, we have 56,000 rally votes for a 15% increase on the RBY match (based on 20% backfire). Then we have 26,000 Gamefaqs votes from the vastly inflated votals mentioned above. And 2000 votes from backfire from Melee's rally. Bringing us to a total of 84,000.

Well, it's not inconceivable for Melee to win, but I stacked assumption upon assumption there.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.
Undertale beat Pokemon with 51%. Do you think Chrono Trigger would only get 51% on Pokemon? I don't.


All depends on how much Pokemon can rally. I think naturally Pokemon is a little stronger than Melee, CT probably gets around 60% even or slightly lower, but it's never demonstrated the power of that Melee rally. It would only need a rally around 2/3 as strong to win. Which, granted, we've never yet seen from Pokemon, but it could happen especially if it needed it and was behind for more than the last 4 hours of the poll.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.
12/10/2015 8:30:30 PM#442
It would be hilarious if Undertale lost the first match where like 100% of people expect it to win. There were doubters before now. It's not like Mario 64 won't get a huge lead at some point.
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"F*** Draven." -SBAllen
UltimaterializerX posted...
It would be hilarious if Undertale lost


I'm with you, man.
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Honestly think SM64 is the strongest Mario game but it's a shame that it's gonna have a bad time against Undertale man
Mario is coming to have his revenge
Does this look like the face of mercy? http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r4/57.jpg
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I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
I just wish Undertale doesn't leave any doubt that it wins at any point during the Mario 64 match. An All-Nintendo Final Four would suck.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.
12/10/2015 8:36:15 PM#447
red sox 777 posted...
An All-Nintendo Final Four would suck.


Gross
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest
"F*** Draven." -SBAllen
Interesting post, red sox. People know Melee's rally worked once now. Only time will tell us how it'll work out. For all we know Melee won't be able to take down FF7 (if so, I would be greatly disappointed) and Undertale's going to dominate more than ever, but who knows....
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In all seriousness, Mario can win if we all put effort in to posting on literally any Nintendo related fangroup on facebook and reddit. Contact admins for stickies. It's freaking MARIO factor guys. Mario used this on cloud in 2002 to boost like 40000 votes and win. Don't let your dreams be dreams!
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