GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1246
That plucky underdog Zelda is at it again! ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/ ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Save_us.bonuspoll(s) --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Also: 3-way tournament of champions fun: Undertale (2015 Champion) Draven (2013 Champion) L-Block (2007 Champion) My guess is, L-Block wins in a landslide. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
AA outta nowhere. LttP wins. --- The devil is never the maker. The less that you give, you're a taker. |
The f***? Majora's Mask, you little devil you. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
Nice to see a stats topic not made by Ulti and not with "zomg Undertale deserves to win EVERYTHING" at the top. --- "This place has a nice view of Hod. And also... I promised someone." - Asch, Tales of the Abyss |
OrangeCrush980 posted... Nice to see a stats topic not made by Ulti and not with "zomg Undertale deserves to win EVERYTHING" at the top. It's okay, I still believe in you! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDdR4c9vcEw --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen (edited 12/9/2015 3:34:51 AM)report |
LTTP by the hour: 1:00 | 46.87% 2:00 | 50.49% 3:00 | 51.25% 4:00 | 51.34% 5:00 | 52.32% 6:00 | 52.60% 7:00 | 54.34% Rising steadily! --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
FE7 is godlike and should have made this bracket. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
Can
you enlighten an occasional, over the years lurker of this board? Ulti
seems like a guy who's been here quite a while and knows his way around
stats and stuff. Why is he treating every Undertail deficit as hard to
overcome or borderline insurmountable when it has consistently erased
leads within hours and ended with several votes to spare? In short, I can't see how the proven favourite is painted as an underdog by a very contest-savvy poster. |
so he can feign shock and spam Undertale memes/celebratory posts --- Communists |
Votals by the hour: Time | CTvSSBM | LTTPvMM 1:00 | 6407 | 8831 2:00 | 5069 | 4211 3:00 | 3719 | 3042 4:00 | 2698 | 2339 5:00 | 2258 | 2007 6:00 | 2031 | 1945 7:00 | 2600 | 2269 Total | 24844 | 24716 After 7 hours, rally-fuled CT/SSBM finally gets ahead of spillover-fuled LTTP/MM. Looking at those hourlies, and knowing that SSBM was rallied hard from 00:25 until around 17:00, we can see that the spillover did not terminate. It's still going. It was still providing 300/votes an hour during the dead zone. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
The Mana Sword posted... SNES boost dies with chrono trigger obviously No! SMRPG must be the last remaining Mario game and make the FInal Four! --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! Future 2015 Guru Contest runner-up. |
The Mana Sword posted... SNES boost dies with chrono trigger obviously SMRPG was going to get smashed by RE4 anyway. --- XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak PSN ID - Kudaark Steam Name : skaalfa |
TheKoolAidShoto posted... so he can feign shock and spam Undertale memes/celebratory posts Pretty much. Ulti has made an art out of trolling this board and specifically this topic. I'm willing to bet he doesnt even actually like the game. This is just about being able to taunt the majority for him --- Board 8's Voice of Reason http://i.imgur.com/chXIw06.jpg |
red sox 777 posted... After 7 hours, rally-fuled CT/SSBM finally gets ahead of spillover-fuled LTTP/MM. Looking at those hourlies, and knowing that SSBM was rallied hard from 00:25 until around 17:00, we can see that the spillover did not terminate. It's still going. It was still providing 300/votes an hour during the dead zone. Thank god Division 4 doesn't follow Undertale given how up in the air it is. Div 3 is capable of absorbing it. Still will affect (SMRPG/RE4)/(MGS1/3), though =\ --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Using the spill over polls from last round we are heading for around 65k votes. --- BGE3: Today's Matches LoZ: OoT > BK, LoZ: LttP > LoZ: MM Points 179/224 |
Valtiel__ posted... Can you enlighten an occasional, over the years lurker of this board? Ulti seems like a guy who's been here quite a while and knows his way around stats and stuff. Why is he treating every Undertail deficit as hard to overcome or borderline insurmountable when it has consistently erased leads within hours and ended with several votes to spare? I didn't think it could out-rally Mario, and I for sure did not think it could out-rally Pokemon if all of Pokemon's big guns got involved. Even with what we know, Pokemon might have won if it had more than one reddit topic and one tweet. No one else cared. At this point the contest is Undertale's to lose though. Pokemon was the big test. Eddv posted... TheKoolAidShoto posted...so he can feign shock and spam Undertale memes/celebratory posts http://www.gamefaqs.com/PC/180989-undertale/reviews/161494 --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
LTTP by the hour: 1:00 | 46.87% 2:00 | 50.49% 3:00 | 51.25% 4:00 | 51.34% 5:00 | 52.32% 6:00 | 52.60% 7:00 | 54.34% 8:00 | 55.25% LTTP finally crosses 55% (yes, the spillover is still not finished). Here's a very very rough attempt at estimating the non-spillover percentages. In the first hour, OOT/FFIX got 5504 votes, so let's assume 3327 spillover votes. That is, the votes were 62.3% from natural votals and the rest from spillover. LTTP got 46.87%. In the last 2 hours, OOT/FFIX got 4014, so let's assume 865 votes of spillover, for 82.27% of the votes coming from natural votals. LTTP got 54.83% over these last 2 hours. To make these match up, some algebra yields......... Let x = LTTP's percentage from natural votes Let y = LTTP's percentage from spillover 0.623x + 0.377y = 46.87 [First Hour] 0.823x + 0.177y = 54.83 [6 AM - 8 AM] y = 124.32 - 1.65x 0.823x + 0.177(124.32 - 1.65x) = 54.83 0.531x = 54.83 - 22 x = 61.83% y = 22.30% 62/38 split on Gamefaqs and 22/78 from the spillover? Seems extreme but I'll run with it. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Gotta be some actual trends in there to make those numbers more reasonable. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Tumblr ralliers like MM, they're cool in my book! |
http://www.gamefaqs.com/PC/180989-undertale/reviews/161494 I see that the review was posted a couple of days after Undertale/Fallout 3 ;) --- BGE3: Today's Matches LoZ: OoT > BK, LoZ: LttP > LoZ: MM Points 179/224 |
If
you asked me before the poll for trends though, I'd have said that LTTP
would do better with the first hour than 6-8 AM, if there were any
trends. Let's check LTTP vs. Mario 64: 1st hour: 52.25% 6-8 AM: 50.31% Yup. LTTP almost 2% better at the power hour. Granted, this is Mario, not Zelda, and Mario is better in the morning, but that probably just pushes us back to even, trends-wise. SNES stuff is very strong in the first 4 hours relative to the rest of the day. I don't think there's any escape from trends here. The number that's more susceptible is probably the number of extra votes. You can argue that this round would have gotten more votes even without the spillover. There's some weaknesses to that, because this is an SFF match, which hurts votals, and the OOT/FFIX match had OOT, our biggest vote draw, in there. Today, OOT/SOTN is outdrawing our double Zelda poll. But, if you figure in a 10% boost to votals between rounds, you can probably knock the spillover split from 78/22 for MM down to 65/35. But you'll probably also knock LTTP's projected natural percentage below it's actual percentage in some of the upcoming hours. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Well,
nice to see the upset last as long as it did. MM should have something
of an ASV, but LTTP is really piling it on right now. --- M E N: nominate Metal Man in 20XX! http://i.imgur.com/Dr4NAeq.png |
Super Metroid secret powerhouse reconfirmed one positive result you can take from this Tranny --- Communists |
Lttp laying down a hurting now. --- XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak PSN ID - Kudaark Steam Name : skaalfa |
And
yeah, votals were not better at the end of round 3 than in OOT/FFIX (I
picked that one back in the CT match as a benchmark because it had the
highest natural votals of round 3, to avoid overestimating spillover or
rallied votes). The first 20 minutes of CT/SSBM had slightly higher
votals than OOT/FFIX, which makes sense as it is a close, hyped, match
between 2 top 10 games from different fanbases. And it was only 7%
above OOT/FFIX. Very possibly would have fallen back to around 0% later
in the day if the rallying hadn't happened. So anything like a 10% votals boost is not realistic, unless it's a direct consequence of the the matches during the last 2 days. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
UltimaterializerX posted... http://www.gamefaqs.com/PC/180989-undertale/reviews/161494 Not good enough. Show us your stamp collection! --- Don't forget about your self-care~! |
well I see LTTP came back over night good for it (jesus god undertale has made this board unreadable) --- sig pssssssssssst - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/568795-soccer-challenge |
Goddamn Majora. Nice to see my favorite Zelda game look great going out today. --- My old signature was really outdated. I haven't thought of a proper new one yet. |
There's
nothing wrong with Ulti jumping on the bandwagon. It's just weird how
he does the same routine every match. It's like no, Ulti, Undertale is not a huge underdog. The match is not assuredly over with 12 hours left. Undertale winning was not a miracle or even unpredictable. --- Next year, you'll wish you had started today. |
Wow, I didn't expect Link to the Past and Majora's Mask to be so close of a vote. --- Warning, the self-destruct system has been activated, all personnel should evacuate immediately, 5 minutes to detonation. |
LTTP by the hour: 1:00 | 46.87% 2:00 | 50.49% 3:00 | 51.25% 4:00 | 51.34% 5:00 | 52.32% 6:00 | 52.60% 7:00 | 54.34% 8:00 | 55.25% 9:00 | 56.53% LTTP powers past 56%. And we got 2839 votes, compared to 2422 in OOT/FFIX, for a spillover percentage of 14.7%. Spillover percentage keeps dropping, and LTTP keeps rising. And it's still got a lot more room to rise. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
And we open the 9th hour with a 62.6% update! That's what I like to see! --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Thanks for the breakdown red sox 777. --- Warning, the self-destruct system has been activated, all personnel should evacuate immediately, 5 minutes to detonation. |
The
sad thing is, next round LTTP could have given us an interesting first
night vote against OOT. That's its best time, and since OOT developed
FFVII trends, it's been OOT's worst time. But it's right after the
Undertale match, so this spillover will replay itself, except that this
time LTTP will be buried under a mountain of votes. I guess it won't
really make a real difference in the end, but it would be really cool to
see something that's not rallied/bandwagoned with percentages close to
50% against OOT for even an hour. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
ctesjbuvf posted... Goddamn Majora. Considering I was giving it no chance vs Super Metroid this time last match, yeah I'm happy with this result too. Hopefully it sticks, even if lttp is obviously going to win |
AppreciateTrees posted... There's nothing wrong with Ulti jumping on the bandwagon. It's just weird how he does the same routine every match. It's like no, Ulti, Undertale is not a huge underdog. The match is not assuredly over with 12 hours left. Undertale winning was not a miracle or even unpredictable. I thought Pokemon had it, and plenty of other people in the topic agreed. It was the first game that was actually bothering to fight back. NOW it's the contest favorite for sure. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
red sox 777 posted... The sad thing is, next round LTTP could have given us an interesting first night vote against OOT. That's its best time, and since OOT developed FFVII trends, it's been OOT's worst time. But it's right after the Undertale match, so this spillover will replay itself, except that this time LTTP will be buried under a mountain of votes. I guess it won't really make a real difference in the end, but it would be really cool to see something that's not rallied/bandwagoned with percentages close to 50% against OOT for even an hour. Even if you ignore the spillover, it looks like LttP will probably be worth something like 57%-58% on Majora. Which is good, but that doesn't strike me as an OoT beater. --- http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png |
I'm
curious how OoT will do against LTTP myself[providing MM doesn't find a
way to win], but I would expect a fairly close vote in that match up. --- Warning, the self-destruct system has been activated, all personnel should evacuate immediately, 5 minutes to detonation. |
UltimaterializerX posted... AppreciateTrees posted...There's nothing wrong with Ulti jumping on the bandwagon. It's just weird how he does the same routine every match. It's like no, Ulti, Undertale is not a huge underdog. The match is not assuredly over with 12 hours left. Undertale winning was not a miracle or even unpredictable. Yeah, that match could've easily been Pokemon's if the community actually cared to support RBY. Bulbagarden, OfficialPokemonNews and Masuda tweeted, that could've been insane if it wasn't for a split fanbase. Undertale comes out of that match a favorite to win it all, but damn what a match. --- My old signature was really outdated. I haven't thought of a proper new one yet. |
Really
wasn't expecting all of that "No gen 1 sucks" attitude. I'm fine with
them saying they like Undertale better or something, but I think it's
pretty ridiculous to be a Pokemon fan and actually think the originals
are bad games (especially for the pretty trivial reasons listed in the
graphic people keep posting). --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword (edited 12/9/2015 6:34:17 AM)report |
And as for Undertale, we have: Round 1 vs. Mass Effect 3: 28,218[50.95%] to 27,162[49.05%] Round 2 vs. Fallout 3: 45,527[55.74%] to 36,146[44.26%] Round 3 vs. Super Mario World: 54,196[54.84%] to 44,637[45.16%] Round 4 vs. Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green Version: 61,769[51.52%] to 58,126[48.48%] Round 5 vs. Super Mario 64: ??? --- Warning, the self-destruct system has been activated, all personnel should evacuate immediately, 5 minutes to detonation. |
I would love to see Pokemon at full power in a match. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
If the Pokemon community was as dedicated as the Undertale community we'd be looking at an unstoppable beast. On a different note, I guess it's really time to see what all the fuss is about and play Uncharted! --- My old signature was really outdated. I haven't thought of a proper new one yet. |
LordoftheMorons posted... Really wasn't expecting all of that "No gen 1 sucks" attitude. I'm fine with them saying they like Undertale better or something, but I think it's pretty ridiculous to be a Pokemon fan and actually think the originals are bad games (especially for the pretty trivial reasons listed in the graphic people keep posting). It's not only that the newer games are probably better but the sheer reverence the gaming masses have for RBY combined with their dismissal of anything after GSC even being close to those games that does it. If for whatever reason most serious gamers had been satisfied with Mario 1 and decided they didn't care to play any later platformers because everything afterwards would inevitably be worse knockoffs that can't ever compete, I imagine fans of Mario 3 and Mario World would have gotten pretty damn sick of Mario 1 too. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] (edited 12/9/2015 6:44:00 AM)report |
I'm pretty sure compared to the other gens Gen 1 is a broken piece of bug s*** Spoiler alert: (edited 12/9/2015 6:48:24 AM)report |
I
like Gold and Silver the best. It's the sweet spot for the series,
before we had 700+ Pokemon to catch and had to treat it like a job
instead of a video game. I had also never seen the term 'genwun' before yesterday and it floors me that Pokemon fans hate the first games so much. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
