GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1245
oh man I just realized regardless of what happens we can turn it into "plucky underdog Zelda" LTTP shakes off a big early deficit and wins Majora FLIPS THE ZELDA HIERARCHY how do these plucky underdogs do it --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
I would just like to point out that Super Metroid had caught up to MM by this point. --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
red sox 777 posted... And seems like Bulbapedia did tweet! but it didn't change a thing Yeah I am just catching up, but how does it make sense that Undertale got far more votes in this match than against SMW, when that match had lady whatshername post with 20k notes and this one didn't? With that said, searching "GameFAQs" on tumblr nets far more results than previous matches, they are small but this is no longer a result that only nets a few result, it's filling pages now --- 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
Rallies get stronger as time goes by. It's a lot easier to hype when you say Division Finals instead of Round 1 or something. --- http://psnprofiles.com/Drayxs |
There's also elements of randomness and chance with tumblr rallies. The rally against FO3 didn't catch fire until much later than the SMW rally, but they both ended up at similar percentages. --- Goddamn Chrono Trigger |
But still, 400+ votes updates? The best vote against SMW was I think 396 or something like that, and that was one time deal Well I can call it fishy all day, Allen says it's not possible to cheat, so it's not possible to cheat there is nothing to argue But I still want to understand how the hell it was possible, when everything looked like it should be weaker than against SMW --- 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
Yeah I am just catching up, but how does it make sense that Undertale got far more votes in this match than against SMW, when that match had lady whatshername post with 20k notes and this one didn't? The tumblr rallies are not just fueled by one person or a few people. In the FO3 match, The Lady Heiress got 25,000 notes on her post, which introduced a lot of people to the contest. With SMW, other people blogged about it and Lady Heiress ended up just reblogging a post that already had like 12,000 or something notes by the time she got around to reblogging it. Now, the rally is legion and does not depend on any individual person (though evidently, whoever runs Undertale_Bot on Twitter helped a lot). --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
The
strangest thing was how Undertale surged with that Masuda tweet. 50%
backfire rate for that Pokemon rally just sounds so
implausible.......but the only alternatives I can think of are that
Undertale got some major posts/reblogs right at the exact same time, and
stuffing by someone who follows closely enough to immediately see
Masuda's tweet and react to it. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
red sox 777 posted... Yeah I am just catching up, but how does it make sense that Undertale got far more votes in this match than against SMW, when that match had lady whatshername post with 20k notes and this one didn't? Who the heck is the Lady Heiress, why does she deserve attention and why would that many people listen to her to do something? I guess I don't understand social media these days. |
red sox 777 posted... Yeah I am just catching up, but how does it make sense that Undertale got far more votes in this match than against SMW, when that match had lady whatshername post with 20k notes and this one didn't? But this makes it the first time ever we can't really explain where the votes came from We had excuses for everything Draven related, we had excuses for everything Undertale in the last rounds But this? this is crazy, even if you add all the notes it's barely above what Lady Heiress had, yet Undertale was twice as strong And everything started when that Underbot tweeted I know it sounds like a sore loser, but I really want Allen explanation for this, it doesn't make any sense --- 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
Well,
keep in mind that Pokemon was rallied pretty hard too. I wouldn't be
surprised if 10% of Undertale's total votes came from Pokemon rally
backfires! --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Pokemon
was rallied obscenely hard. Harder than I'd expect Melee or OoT to be
rallied, realistically. That plus yet another natural increase in
GameFAQs strength resolves most or all of the Undertale issues. --- Goddamn Chrono Trigger |
LTTP by the hour: 1:00 | 46.87% 2:00 | 50.49% 3:00 | 51.25% Improving, but not as fast as I was hoping for. That MM spike in the middle of the hour looked a lot like a microrally, but it could also just be fairly extreme variance. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
I wake up and find Pokemon f***ing lost and LttP is losing. Should have stayed in bed. Please OoT stop Undertale. --- XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak PSN ID - Kudaark Steam Name : skaalfa |
Pokemon was rallied obscenely hard. Harder than I'd expect Melee or OoT to be rallied, realistically. That plus yet another natural increase in GameFAQs strength resolves most or all of the Undertale issues. Yeah, the Pokemon/Nintendo contingent on this site came prepared for this match. I'm sort of afraid to see an actual Chrono Trigger/Pokemon match now, because they can rally just as hard as Melee. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
LTTP will win barring something really unexpected, so you needn't worry about that one. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Nanis23 posted... red sox 777 posted...Yeah I am just catching up, but how does it make sense that Undertale got far more votes in this match than against SMW, when that match had lady whatshername post with 20k notes and this one didn't? Not a sore loser, I wanted Undertale to win, but I agree. I'd put better odds on there just being more, smaller tumblr rallies that never came to our attention as the rally gained a wider base, but there's clearly something we're missing here, and I can't rule out stuffing as an explanation. |
CT
would wipe the floor with RBY in natural GameFAQs strength but it
doesn't matter. Same thing if it's slightly above OoT. Until we recover
the vote totals to no-sell most significant rallies again - if we ever
can - CT beating anything like OoT, RBY, etc is just a pipe dream. I'm
confident of that now. ...well, there's always beating up FFVII in the bonus match! --- Goddamn Chrono Trigger (edited 12/9/2015 12:08:30 AM)report |
The
sheer volume of the spillover so far in this match suggests it wasn't
stuffing. The spillover after the SMW and FO3 matches wasn't even close
to this. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
35 votes cut that time. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Ironically
enough, if we do get that CT/FFVII, then CT/OOT bonus polls, that might
be CT's best chance to actually beat OOT in one of these things. After
a day, the spillover will be mostly gone, and OOT fans really should be
too embarrassed to rally for it to win a bonus poll after losing to
Undertale in the contest final. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Very disappointed by yesterdays result :( |
Also,
I was quite frightened through most of Link/Snake that the League of
Legends subreddit would rally for Snake to turn the screws on Gamefaqs.
Fortunately they decided that Snake was one of the characters who
"always wins" and did nothing. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
DING DONG THE POKEYMANZ ARE DEAD- argh another 35 vote cut by LttP I deserve this --- Goddamn Chrono Trigger |
35 more. LTTP averaging 58% over those last 2 updates. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
And there's a gain to even up the score. If only it'd become a trend... --- Remember when you were young? No longer bearing the mark of Kan. I'm a new man now. |
2 gains for Majora's Mask in a row. What's going on? Also super nice vote totals. 8500 and 8888. --- Video Games are pretty cool. (edited 12/9/2015 12:25:50 AM)report |
On
second thought, I looked at the Pokemon subreddit and it only has
around 1/3 of the active users r/Smashbros had at this time during the
CT/SSBM match. I'm pretty convinced that reddit is an amazingly
effective platform for rallying and contributed the vast bulk of that
20k vote Melee rally. All the peripheral stuff (pro players tweeting,
Smashboards, etc) is what made it a 1000 vote win for Melee instead of a
2000 vote win for CT, but what took the match from a 12,000 vote win
for CT into a 2000 vote win, was Reddit and that steady rally that
started at 0:20 and never let up (tracking the number of active users on
the subreddit) until it started sliding down the subreddit's front
page. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
All I know is I never want another contest at this point. Literally f*** it. --- Board 8's Voice of Reason http://i.imgur.com/chXIw06.jpg |
http://i.imgur.com/sID7LMH.jpg For the memories of a nice looking vote count. --- Video Games are pretty cool. (edited 12/9/2015 12:31:30 AM)report |
SMW/Undertale at 10 AM - 38795 RBY/Undertale at 10 AM - 47562 This was before the big Undertale surge in both matches. Difference of 8767. A large part of that is explained by greater hype/excitement for the match and spillover from the very high votal Melee/CT match the previous day. SMW had a bit of counterrallying on its own to balance it out, but probably not enough to come close to making up for the above two factors. Pokemon may have doubled its rally numbers from 10 AM to the end, though I think it's rather unlikely as within a few hours after that, the Pokemon rally was fading as the Reddit thread slid down the page. That Masuda tweet probably pulled in around 2000 votes, assuming that half of it really did go to Undertale. I should probably try to find more solid numbers for this, but basically, I think Pokemon's total rally size yesterday was probably closer to 10,000 than Melee's 20,000. Making it the biggest Pokemon rally we've seen, and the 5th biggest rally overall, behind Draven, Undertale, Melee, and Mario in Mario/Cloud 2002. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Remember when LttP was the #3 game on this site? Yeah, what the f***. --- Not_Wylvane |
And
yes, the Pokemon subreddit has 2.4 times as many subscribers as the
Smash subreddit. That matters far less than the number of active users. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Majora keeps trying to defy gravity... and it's still kind of working. Thing is, if the day vote favors it again, it doesn't have to keep defying gravity for that much longer. --- Goddamn Chrono Trigger |
The
big problem with Pokemon's rally was that it was put up at the very
beginning and had fallen quite a bit over the course of the day (when
more people were actually active), which combined with the repost rule
really stopped Pokemon from realizing its full potential. Had it been
put up six hours later of something, Pokemon might have pulled in a
couple thousand extra votes (though I'm guessing Undertale would have
just pushed harder in response). --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
I like this, it means the rallies should be fairly reliable, since they don't have a single source (though maybe still more tied to Undertale Bot tweeting to start things off than I'd like). One of the worst things about the Draven rallies was that the match, tens of thousands of votes, literally turned on the mods on the LoL subreddit deleting or stickying a rally post. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Majora keeps trying to defy gravity... and it's still kind of working. Don't expect any improvement for Majora until the ASV. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
It
may not need improvement at this pace. Though if it sucks it up with
the morning vote like it did against SM then yeah it'll need a bit of
ASV juice. --- Goddamn Chrono Trigger |
Glad
MM is making such a good showing even if it doesn't end up making it. I
hope it's because MM is strong rather than LttP sucking. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
This is the only upset I called that is actually happening. And I don't even feel good about it because its f***ing irrelevant. --- Board 8's Voice of Reason http://i.imgur.com/chXIw06.jpg |
MM really doesn't want to drop below 340 I wonder if people are still reblogging or something? (Or maybe they're reblogging the news that Undertale won?) --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
LTTP by the hour: 1:00 | 46.87% 2:00 | 50.49% 3:00 | 51.25% 4:00 | 51.34% MM just refuses to collapse. Right now votals are low so LTTP isn't gaining many votes, however, maintaining this same percentage from 8 AM to 3 PM, when votals are higher, would result in a lot more votes. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
red sox 777 posted...
Yeah I see what you mean It's more...dynamic Remember how in the Draven/Snake match (I think) Allen/Allen wife asked the LoL mods to stop the rally and then Draven was weak? actually, he was pathetic We won't have the same thing with Undertale --- 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
Who are these vagabonds that are voting for Majora's Mask. It's highly annoying. --- XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak PSN ID - Kudaark Steam Name : skaalfa |
So,
I've been playing around with Facebook ad manager. According to it,
there are 1,369,840 people on Facebook with a specific interest in
"Chrono Trigger." I am allowed to run ads for only one day or even for
one hour if I choose to. For a budget of $1,000, running ads for one
day, they are estimating impressions of 65k to 170k. At a 2%
clickthrough rate for newsfeed ads based on 100k views, that would
generate 2000 votes. Assuming a 20% backfire rate, that would generate
1200 votes net. "Final Fantasy" has 7,497,630, "Final Fantasy VII" has 4,770,900, "Legend of Zelda" has 8,545,190, "The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time" has 1,969,980, and "Link (The Legend of Zelda)" has 11,270,280. For that same $1000, targeting using a combination of the above Zelda terms as criteria, they are estimating 140k-380k impressions. 220k impressions at a 2% clickthrough rate would get us 4400 votes. At a 10% backfire rate (because Zelda fans are more dronish <emoticon>), that would get us 3200 votes net. I'd like to test this in a match, except that it's looking like it would take a significant amount of money to generate results big enough to distinguish from noise in the updates. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Wow
Pokemon vs Undertale got 120k votes and Pokemon still lost. I did not
expect that at all that is absolutely crazy to me where the hell is
undertale getting so much support? I didn't really expect Pokemon to win
but I also didn't expect the match to get that many more votes than the
previous Undertale matches. OoT definitely has some work to do. I believe it can do it though. Something good needs to happen in this contest OoT defeating Undertale to make up for losing to Draven is the only good story left. --- 9/2/13-The Hero of GameFAQs fought bravely but fell to an unrelenting horde supported by a corrupt tyranny. R.I.P. Hero of Time, 7 time CB Champion, Link |
red sox 777 posted... So, I've been playing around with Facebook ad manager. According to it, there are 1,369,840 people on Facebook with a specific interest in "Chrono Trigger." I am allowed to run ads for only one day or even for one hour if I choose to. For a budget of $1,000, running ads for one day, they are estimating impressions of 65k to 170k. At a 2% clickthrough rate for newsfeed ads based on 100k views, that would generate 2000 votes. Assuming a 20% backfire rate, that would generate 1200 votes net. If this is serious I'd put in some money to help OoT win the final >_>. Can't afford that much but I could do something if you get some others to contribute as well. --- 9/2/13-The Hero of GameFAQs fought bravely but fell to an unrelenting horde supported by a corrupt tyranny. R.I.P. Hero of Time, 7 time CB Champion, Link |
Low
clickthrough sounds right. A lot of the strength of the rallies comes
from the fact that someone the person at least somewhat respects (or at
least coming from a place they explicitly opted into hearing from) is
telling them to vote. They have intrinsic loyalty to an ad. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
If this is serious I'd put in some money to help OoT win the final >_>. Can't afford that much but I could do something if you get some others to contribute as well. My interest is for the next contest, when CT is up again. And just curiosity about how well something like this could work. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Not_Wylvane posted... Remember when LttP was the #3 game on this site? I maintain that this is just a bad matchup for it. I believe that ALttP is indirectly a little bit stronger, but MM is higher up the Zelda hierarchy (probably because it's essentially a sequel to Ocarina using the same graphic style) and so the close win turns into a close loss. --- FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle |
