GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1245
I
am a little bit concerned about the ASV. Back when it was still a real
thing, SM64 cut 1.5% on LTTP with it, and (N64) Zelda's ASV is stronger
than Mario's. As the bulk of the Undertale rally came in the ASV,
that's where most of the spillover that hasn't already been used will
come. LTTP will probably be ahead by too much by then for MM to do anything, but if it's close, watch out. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Argh no LttP my #2 Zelda doing this to my #1 Zelda this is the worst well not really but you get the idea --- Goddamn Chrono Trigger |
You know, if we assume MM>LTTP because of rally spillover, how do we explain OOT putting such a beating and still increasing? Ocarina looked bad in the last two rounds, but now it's overperforming Unless FFIX is indeed a monster --- 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
After seeing this I need to switch my vote back to LTTP for next round. Seems my votes are pretty changeable.....there is only one real imperative - support Chrono Trigger/Crono always. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Sense, this contest has nonever of it. --- Dr voltchball - best in the world. http://i.minus.com/iN5ZHjUDyI547.gif |
If
we're going to credit spillover with favoring an intra-Zelda matchup at
something ridiculous like 70%+ for MM, then you've got to do something
even more drastic for Ocarina of Time. Which makes it look a lot
worse and SotN a lot better on natural GameFAQs strength, but I have no
idea how one would adjust that. --- Goddamn Chrono Trigger |
Lttp firmly taking back control. Should be 55-45 or better as the night wears on. Time for bed. --- http://www.last.fm/user/VinnyMendoza "This is all we have... when we die.." |
red sox 777 posted... I am a little bit concerned about the ASV. Back when it was still a real thing, SM64 cut 1.5% on LTTP with it, and (N64) Zelda's ASV is stronger than Mario's. As the bulk of the Undertale rally came in the ASV, that's where most of the spillover that hasn't already been used will come. This occurred to me as well! Tumblr may make a return later as it's normal proportion of votes increases. I sure hope not! Nanis23 posted... You know, if we assume MM>LTTP because of rally spillover, how do we explain OOT putting such a beating and still increasing? OoT has a great pic instead of a bad one. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Votals at 1:50: LTTP/MM - 12670 RBY/UT - 13678 CT/SSBM - 10684 OOT/FFIX - 8295 We are still about 2000 votes ahead of CT/SSBM, and Melee had already brought in around 2400 extra votes by this time. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Karma Hunter posted... If we're going to credit spillover with favoring an intra-Zelda matchup at something ridiculous like 70%+ for MM, then you've got to do something even more drastic for Ocarina of Time. Which makes it look a lot worse and SotN a lot better on natural GameFAQs strength, but I have no idea how one would adjust that. Oot is almost holding steady here if you look at individual updates. If it drops a couple points it's right in my doubling prediction. --- http://www.last.fm/user/VinnyMendoza "This is all we have... when we die.." |
Doubling
SotN isn't really good like I said before, even if we give a lot of
credit to SotN. T&T projects it to be right at FFIX's level... so
the FFIX pic was worth about a point and a half to it? THAT WAS A LOT OF
COMPLAINING FOR A POINT AND A HALF --- Goddamn Chrono Trigger |
Karma Hunter posted... If we're going to credit spillover with favoring an intra-Zelda matchup at something ridiculous like 70%+ for MM, then you've got to do something even more drastic for Ocarina of Time. Which makes it look a lot worse and SotN a lot better on natural GameFAQs strength, but I have no idea how one would adjust that. Why do you think it would do something drastic for OoT? Both it and SOTN are old games. I don't see how one could with confidence say anything about Tumblr's preferences there. Aldo I don't think we need to project this as 70% of spillover for LttP. Without SFF this is a 54-55% match. Unless spillover returns later, I think LttP will win. A 3-4 point underperformance can be explained by pic factor, and random wonkiness. With those numbers (LttP at 50-52%) I would think the spillover computes to much less than 70%, though I haven't done the math. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
speaking of which Majora's Mask's pic advantage isn't good enough right now --- Goddamn Chrono Trigger |
Lol We All Know Its Gonna Be FF7 vs OOT in the FinALS --- Hey! Listen!" |
T&T projects it to FFIX last contest, right? I believe we're pretty sure FFIX also boosted --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
creativename posted... Karma Hunter posted...If we're going to credit spillover with favoring an intra-Zelda matchup at something ridiculous like 70%+ for MM, then you've got to do something even more drastic for Ocarina of Time. Which makes it look a lot worse and SotN a lot better on natural GameFAQs strength, but I have no idea how one would adjust that. Tumblr goes bonkers for Zelda. Who the hell even knows if people there have heard of SotN. There's no doubt in my mind they'd go much more lopsidedly for OoT > SotN than natural GameFAQs voters. --- Goddamn Chrono Trigger |
Tumblr goes bonkers for Zelda. Who the hell even knows if people there have heard of SotN. There's no doubt in my mind they'd go much more lopsidedly for OoT > SotN than natural GameFAQs voters. How do we know that? We have a list from them showing Zelda at #2 gaming thing blogged about. On Gamefaqs, it's #1, and Castlevania is far far down the list. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. (edited 12/8/2015 11:03:31 PM)report |
And
I don't credit a 65-70% split for MM > LttP on tumblr, but there are
others here who do. In that case, you've got to say OoT is
overperforming if MM is overperforming. --- Goddamn Chrono Trigger |
FFIX
has probably had another good boost since Game of the Decade. It didn't
necessarily seem like it based on comparing the round 1 result with
Game of the Decade x-stats and likely FFX/FFIX SFF but that Twilight
Princess/Kingdom Hearts II match from GotD looks very fishy after
Kingdom Hearts II/Melee I'd guess maybe KH and KHII are about as strong as they were in 2009 and have been so ever since, with FFIX beating KHI on its own strength rather than KHI's weakness. This means Bioshock would also be underrated in the GotD x-stats. The good news for MGS3 keeps coming! (sorry KH) --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
red sox 777 posted... Tumblr goes bonkers for Zelda. Who the hell even knows if people there have heard of SotN. There's no doubt in my mind they'd go much more lopsidedly for OoT > SotN than natural GameFAQs voters. You are welcome to believe the gap between OoT and SotN is smaller on tumblr than it is on GameFAQs. I doubt you get many takers, but you're free to believe it. --- Goddamn Chrono Trigger |
LTTP by the hour: 1:00 | 46.87% 2:00 | 50.49% --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Quick
question, were the divisions these games are in selected randomly? It
doesn't seem like a coincidence that the three best Zeldas will have to
kill each other off so only one can get into the later rounds. |
8th on the leaderboard yet dead- brutal |
Ugh looking at the other brackets with Melee in the finals I think I need LttP to pull through here to keep my bracket alive I am so upset right now screw my bracket GO MAJORA --- Goddamn Chrono Trigger |
jonnyfresh712 posted... Quick question, were the divisions these games are in selected randomly? It doesn't seem like a coincidence that the three best Zeldas will have to kill each other off so only one can get into the later rounds. SBAllen never said how exactly the game were organized. It's definitely not random, though. --- No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585. Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest! |
Yeah,
I think LTTP probably wins with the way things are looking, but
Majora's Mask has suddenly gone from being the one everyone wants to
lose in a really tight match to the one everyone wants to win in a
really tight match it always manages to flip the script just like in GOTD --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Karma Hunter posted... http://i.imgur.com/Bgb9cmZ.png also if this pic isn't chosen there is no justice in this world --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Where do you even rally for Majora's Mask over LttP ...oh right tumblr --- Goddamn Chrono Trigger |
I don't really have a position on it. No data. I mean, if you're set on the narrative of OOT disappointing you can argue it....... LTTP putting up a nice, respectable number next round would say a lot more. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Using
red's numbers from before, if we project LttP at 52% naturally, it
should lead by .04*12670=506.8. It's lead was 532, with 4375 extra votes
from OoT vs. FFIX. That projects to MM having 61.87% of the spillover
(if I'm doing the math right!). Thanks for the numbers red. Karma Hunter posted... Tumblr goes bonkers for Zelda. Who the hell even knows if people there have heard of SotN. There's no doubt in my mind they'd go much more lopsidedly for OoT > SotN than natural GameFAQs voters. I don't know about that. We might be more bonkers for Zelda than they are! --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
48 vote cut. That was a 58% update for LTTP. Welcome to the night vote. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. (edited 12/8/2015 11:15:43 PM)report |
LeonhartFour posted... Yeah, I think LTTP probably wins with the way things are looking, but Majora's Mask has suddenly gone from being the one everyone wants to lose in a really tight match to the one everyone wants to win in a really tight match Basically like the Stone Tower Temple. --- Video Games are pretty cool. |
We
might favor Zelda more than tumblr, but SotN is one of those 'GameFAQs
Specials'. Not on the level of CT, but enough to be a solid midcarder
while I can't imagine it being anything but fodder to tumblr. --- Goddamn Chrono Trigger |
No LttP no stop trying to save my bracket --- Goddamn Chrono Trigger |
UberPyro64 posted... LeonhartFour posted...Yeah, I think LTTP probably wins with the way things are looking, but Majora's Mask has suddenly gone from being the one everyone wants to lose in a really tight match to the one everyone wants to win in a really tight match MM deserves to win everything because of Stone Tower Temple --- 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
In
the eyes of Gamefaqs Link, almost everything is fodder. Everything
except Cloud, jokes, and unknown characters with massive rally
potential. And that guy Solid Snake who led Link for 6 hours once- our
hero calls him fodder publicly, but in the innermost recesses of his
mind, he knows fear! --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. (edited 12/8/2015 11:18:50 PM)report |
I
never thought I'd be this mad at one of my favorite games saving my
bracket and winning a match I was 100% sure it would win to begin with but here we are --- Goddamn Chrono Trigger |
LeonhartFour posted... Karma Hunter posted...http://i.imgur.com/Bgb9cmZ.png The contest was secretly a quotes contest all along! --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Yeah, LTTP probably wins. Like I said, it makes sense if there's any Tumblr spillover for it to favor Majora's Mask since the average age of Tumblr is much lower than ours. Most of them weren't even born yet when LTTP came out. OoT and Majora's Mask are the Zeldas they grew up on. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
what is this match how is this happening I guys, is there any chance MM holds on and wins? Any chance at all? Because that would be the straight up greatest result of all time for me. --- Remember when you were young? No longer bearing the mark of Kan. I'm a new man now. |
Oh hey looks like a Pokemon twitter with 20k followers liked my tweet But they didn't retweet it And seems like Bulbapedia did tweet! but it didn't change a thing I really need to let it go --- 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 (edited 12/8/2015 11:29:35 PM)report |
Do you think a group of people fighting for something else to lose are more powerful than those fighting for something to win? --- -_-...-_- ...-_-... |
Oh look, Majora's Mask's percentage went up again. --- Video Games are pretty cool. |
What is this......is someone rallying? --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
omg majora gained c'mon MM, c'mon c'mon c'mon! You can do this! Keep building up that lead! --- Remember when you were young? No longer bearing the mark of Kan. I'm a new man now. |
Karma Hunter posted... Where do you even rally for Majora's Mask over LttP karma hunter did it guys and we know from previous comments that he's a tumblr expert! --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
And seems like Bulbapedia did tweet! but it didn't change a thing One of the Pokemon developers tweeted, and it didn't do a thing. Or rather, Undertale and Pokemon's vote intake both went up by about the same amount. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
AxemRedRanger posted... Karma Hunter posted...Where do you even rally for Majora's Mask over LttP Dammit I refuse to believe SotN also has nonsensical strength on tumblr --- Goddamn Chrono Trigger |
