GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1243
Well,
really, speaking in terms of the RR, 57% on Mario/Bowser wasn't really
the dominant performance we'd normally expect Link to lay down on a
fellow Nintendite. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Do it with Chrono Trigger and SSBM, or even a non rallied match such as Skyrim/Metroid Prime and you'll see you're overstating this dropoff. Since you asked for CT/SSBM: 14:40 to 15:40 - 217.92 15:40 to 17:30 - 206.59 The dropoff isn't very different from OOT/FFIX. In fact, if you assume that the rallied votes stayed consistent, and the reason for the higher votals in CT/SSBM was rallying, the dropoff was pretty much identical. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Ok,
let me re-phrase. There is a core demographic on GameFAQs that doesn't
like Link winning every year, and therefore Legend of Zelda gets
Anti-voted in pretty well every match that consists of nothing but the
Gamefaqs vote. Because it's only GameFAQs voting, those anti-voters
become a lot more prominent, due to a lower voter pool. OoT has not faced any game that brought in enough votes to make the GameFAQs ant-vote unnoticeable yet. --- Nothing bothers me more than the fact that I didn't understand names should start with a capital when I made this account. PSN:Shimotto |
Based on Skyrim vs. Metroid Prime and MP's GOTD stat value, and SM64/TP, SM64 should get around 60% here. That's pretty close to what it's getting. Can't tell if the rally is having much effect; oddly their strengths with ralliers seem roughly the same as ours. I thought with Super Metroid impressing, that MP would do a bit better than stats so I predicted 59% here. But I guess MP hasn't boosted at all. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Prime
might be a bit overvalued in GOTD if you think Fallout 3 benefited a
bit from the Melee/Brawl backlash, so maybe it's just boosted up to
match its overrated value! --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Metroid
Prime was overvalued in the Game of the Decade stats. Pretty much every
other game in its division has noticeably underperformed. The match
that skewed things was probably Fallout 3/Brawl but Fallout 3's division
had a lot of games either not in the contest or that had reasons for
falling off the face of the earth so it's hard to say for sure there. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] (edited 12/8/2015 2:50:28 PM)report |
creativename posted... Based on Skyrim vs. Metroid Prime and MP's GOTD stat value, and SM64/TP, SM64 should get around 60% here. Yeah the % barely changed. Seems like Skyrim vs SM64 would have the same result on Tumblr. |
Well,
I kinda doubt that the difference between Prime/HL2 between now and 5
years ago was all HL2 dropping, so I'd wager Prime has increased at
least a little bit. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
creativename posted... That's pretty close to what it's getting. Can't tell if the rally is having much effect; oddly their strengths with ralliers seem roughly the same as ours. SM64 has lost almost 0.30% since the big rally push kicked in. I guess some of that is probably natural trends here, so the rallied voters seem to be voting for SM64 over Skyrim at a similar rate to the natural GameFAQs voters. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
LeonhartFour posted... Well, really, speaking in terms of the RR, 57% on Mario/Bowser wasn't really the dominant performance we'd normally expect Link to lay down on a fellow Nintendite. put more than that on the FF7 duo though (how did that happen) |
Cloud/Sephiroth
looked pretty bad (relatively speaking, of course) most of the contest
and lost to Red/Blue in the bonus poll, so yeah, they were doing even
worse. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif (edited 12/8/2015 2:52:14 PM)report |
You
know, while I do think OoT is a sizable favorite in a hypothetical
match with Undertale because it will rally - I think people are reading
too much into the Link vs. Draven match. Rallies are so random, and not easy to get a strong one. I don't think OoT can match Link at all. Of course I also think it doesn't need to match what Link did. So I think OoT wins. But Link vs. Draven was a special case on both sides. Team Rocket Elite posted... School is why Pokemon even looks like it has a chance. SSBM faces Undertale on a weekend. It's going to get buried. I really don't think this makes a difference. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
OoT
doesn't have to be able to match Link because there won't be a third
wheel sucking up 10-12% of the vote like Shepard was in Link/Draven. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
creativename posted... You know, while I do think OoT is a sizable favorite in a hypothetical match with Undertale because it will rally - I think people are reading too much into the Link vs. Draven match. Definitely agree to that. Draven vs. Link was something else, and I'm not sure if we'll ever see a match that's really comparable in context. --- Nothing bothers me more than the fact that I didn't understand names should start with a capital when I made this account. PSN:Shimotto |
LeonhartFour posted... People don't seem to remember this but Link didn't really look that great in his non-SFF 2010 matches or the first two rounds in 2013 before Draven. Is this actually true? I mean it's hard to imagine Link looking bad in a contest he won, but hey. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
Mikisho posted...
Draven vs Link was amazing honestly. Plus, if I recall correctly the match ended with Draven just barely edging out Link. |
A
23% backfire rate does seem pretty low for Pokemon, and I'm guessing it
was a lot higher last night during the first big wave. Remember,
though, that Tumblr can have trends, just like Gamefaqs (once did), and
there is a difference between rallies on Tumblr, Twitter, Reddit, etc.
If you rallied for CT on Gamefaqs against Halo you'd expect a pretty
different response depending on whether you did it at night or during
the ASV! It's not surprising enough a result to indicate stuffing. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Under 4000! --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
Even
though Pokemon is still up by nearly 4000 votes, its 52% will look
really close to potential rally targets. Just looking for some way to
jumpstart the rallies. If they think there's a high chance of it losing,
they will hopefully help out! |
Ignoring
the results of the Undertale/Pokemon Match for a moment, and looking at
sheer number of voters... it's pretty crazy just how many people have
voted with more to come. This looks like it'll easily break Super Mario
World/Undertale's numbers overall. --- Dragon Quest Cosmos (RP): http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/563408-dragon-warrior/72301657 Mario Paint Latest (Lufia 2): http://youtu.be/eWIN_8kBU8o |
Is this actually true? Link has looked awful (for Link's standards) in every match (not counting Rivalry) he's been in since 2010, with the exception of the Draven match. He did beat Cloud with 53.5% in the 2010 final, but even that was majorly disappointing compared to what people were expecting, given how bad Cloud had looked all contest. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
I wonder if Ocarina of Time would just get RBY'd if it needed a rally you know, the whole "you know what, I prefer (insert other game in series), so screw you!" deal |
Meanwhile Skyrim and SM64 remain untouched. |
UltimaterializerX posted... LeonhartFour posted...People don't seem to remember this but Link didn't really look that great in his non-SFF 2010 matches or the first two rounds in 2013 before Draven. Yes he did look bad in the early rounds. He underperformed vs. Thrall. People were complaining that Link looked vulnerable, but there was just no one to take advantage. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
UltimaterializerX posted... Is this actually true? http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5143-character-battle-ix-division-1-round-1-link-vs-isaac-boi-vs Link can't even triple these losers? He was able to get 70%+ in a 4-way against comparable fodder. He can't drive Tingle down to nothingness? Tingle got almost as much in a 3-way than Ganondorf got 1-on-1 against Link. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5225-character-battle-ix-division-1-round-2-link-vs-raiden-vs You can probably blame LFF a bit for this, but it's still not great. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3794-hyrule-division-round-2-link-vs-alucard That's comparable to what 2003 Sephiroth did to 2003 Alucard, who was probably stronger than 2010 Alucard. I mean, it's a fine performance in a vacuum (as is doubling FFIX), but it's not "Man who can beat THIS" like Link used to do. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
At 12:00 p.m. Pokemon was at 56% at 3:00 p.m. Pokemon is now at 55% at 6:00 p.m. Pokemon is now at 52.2% --- 3DS FC: 4382 - 2449 - 5707 IGN: Anthony |
Cuts look like they're slowing, but they're still well above pace. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword (edited 12/8/2015 3:03:47 PM)report |
red sox 777 posted... Link has looked awful (for Link's standards) in every match (not counting Rivalry) he's been in since 2010, with the exception of the Draven match. He did beat Cloud with 53.5% in the 2010 final, but even that was majorly disappointing compared to what people were expecting, given how bad Cloud had looked all contest. Yeah, considering the final 2010 X-Stats have Snake and Samus almost being worth 45% on Link, it definitely wasn't a great performance after Cloud similarly underperformed all contest. Keep in mind that from 2003-2005, the only people projected to even be worth 40% on Link were Cloud and Sephiroth. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Rally is slowing a bit, down to 80 vote cuts. --- Every day the rest of your life is changed forever. |
I wonder what Link vs Sephiroth in 2003 would've been like |
Hm
okay after looking at some things you're closer to right than I
acknowledged there on vote difference between the hours. Turns out
eyeball test can be misleading. I still think saying "Undertale is almost completely rally fueled" is misleading here. If you're going to drop Pokemon 10 then drop Undertale 4 or whatever. No it's not super significant but let's be honest about vote ratios here. In any case I still don't concur the backfire rate is at all similar between the two phases in the match, simply because if Pokemon can keep up at night why can't it keep up now? Undertale's strong updates now are not significantly stronger than the ones last night, yet Pokemon pretty much hasn't moved at all. If it was just "Pokemon was rallying earlier" well why can't it rally again, exactly? Much more logical explanation to me is that early match was a rally, and this is some combination of a rally and a "rally." --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
That last update was Pokemon spiking up a bit. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
While
I believed in Pokemon RBY's ability to get backfire-votes from
Undertale's rally, I always wondered how much. I did an experiment in
2005 on the much smaller GameFAQsASCII.com when they did Character
Battles, and I just found some of the stats I kept for that: In a contest where GameFAQsASCII was averaging 84 votes per match, I asked Halo Bungie Online to support Arbiter from Halo 2 over Mega Man. I love Mega Man and Arbiter's okay so this wasn't easy to ask, but it proved backfire rate isn't often very substantial. Mega Man was winning 60-18 before HBO linked to the match...and once the link came, Arbiter was winning 550-125. Arbiter got 89.11% of those rallied votes over Mega Man, suggesting backfire rate is minimal. The match then shut down twelve hours early and HBO decided not to link to matches any more, suggesting I'm an a******..... Undertale's rally had some different things to consider that made me think Pokemon's backfire advantage would be stronger here (games instead of characters, Tumblr's not just about Undertale, Pokemon counter-rallies, Melee-spillover)...but I think the truth is backfire rate is over-rated: if you reach out to a fanbase about a game they like and they decide to vote, the large majority of those votes are going to the requested game against anything else. You can hope for a better backfire rate than against Mass Effect 3, sure, but I don't know that LoZ:OoT's backfire rate will help it significantly more than Pokemon RBY's backfire rate is today. If Undertale's rally continues to grow (and it will as it advances further), LoZ:OoT has to overcome in other ways than just thinking their rallies will be divided. --- M E N: nominate Metal Man in 20XX! http://i.imgur.com/Dr4NAeq.png |
Julian_Caesar posted... Rally is slowing a bit, down to 80 vote cuts. Undertale got 300 votes that update, Pokemon just managed 220. This match is not over either way. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
Total updates remaining: 72 Lead: 3855 Votes cut per update needed: 53.54 Based on the last hour, Undertale will take the lead in 3 hours. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
1337gamerpr0 posted... I wonder what Link vs Sephiroth in 2003 would've been like I've always wondered this as well. It would have been close. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Undertale matches after 18 hours: game | percent | lead | votals ME3 | 62.25% | 8603 | 35109 FO3 | 48.58% | -1646 | 58152 SMW | 46.41% | -5713 | 79633 RBY | 52.20% | 3855 | 87427 Undertale needs to cut 53.54 votes per update to tie. Based on the last hour, Undertale wins by 3759 votes. |
1337gamerpr0 posted... I wonder what Link vs Sephiroth in 2003 would've been like I think Link would have won. They had a match in 2002, and all the brackets would have just picked Link to win a rematch. No idea who actually would have won or if a rally would have happened, but Link would have been a MASSIVE favorite. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
And after spiking, Pokemon has a terrible update. --- My old signature was really outdated. I haven't thought of a proper new one yet. |
Lopen posted... Hm okay after looking at some things you're closer to right than I acknowledged there on vote difference between the hours. Turns out eyeball test can be misleading. At night the Pokemon rally was at the top of the subreddit. It has since fallen to like 7th. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
17:00 - 60.75 (5564) 18:00 - 61.20 (5665) Monster hour followed by a more monstrous one --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
So random question but was it someone from board 8 that got Trent Baretta to tweet about the Character battle from 2013? --- http://i.imgur.com/BRzp1Fp.gif |
Undertale +130 again. Good lord almighty this is nuts. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
52.4 votes/updated needed. |
TAFKAHurricane posted... So random question but was it someone from board 8 that got Trent Baretta to tweet about the Character battle from 2013? SephyG! He knows Trent personally, which feels weird when I watch the guy pop up on Ring of Honor now and again. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
I
think we can definitively say that 'backfire votes' with Pokemon is a
bunch of BS. the exception here is that Pokemon rallied on its own as
best that it could. Melee vs. Undertale, if it happens, could be crazy. 100k here we come --- xyzzy |
tennisboy213 posted... Undertale matches after 18 hours: Despite all it's efforts, seems like RBY won't do as well as MASS EFFECT 3. |
Honestly,
probably two of the most impressive matches I've ever seen were
Sephiroth's two matches against Mario. 61% against Mario on natural
strength is no joke. Then in 2005, after Mario has just run roughshod
over the entire bracket for 2 months in a contest Sephiroth wasn't even
in, Sephiroth completely shuts down Mario. Mario won 2 updates in 24
hours. That's insane. Also, in the match nobody ever remembers happened, Sephiroth did this in 2005: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2131-tournament-of-champions-final-link-vs-sephiroth So he would've been a lot closer in 2003, I think. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
In any case I still don't concur the backfire rate is at all similar between the two phases in the match, simply because if Pokemon can keep up at night why can't it keep up now? Undertale's strong updates now are not significantly stronger than the ones last night, yet Pokemon pretty much hasn't moved at all. If it was just "Pokemon was rallying earlier" well why can't it rally again, exactly? I'm not sure, but I think I remember the estimated backfire rate in Draven's rallies also declining as the rally went on. If that's true, it might be a feature of rallies, where the first people reached are more likely to vote the other way. I dunno, we don't really have much data. As for Pokemon rallying earlier, it was definitely rallying earlier, and it hasn't picked up the pace now, because it hasn't found a new big source of rally strength. Moreover, we know that Tumblr is very active during this time of day and has many users that don't get reached until this time of day, even if there is a lot of rallying going on earlier. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
oh man get f***ed pokemon --- xyzzy |
