GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1243
https://www.reddit.com/r/pokemon/ please delete the rally topic here and make a new one, whoever made it at this point that topic is generating no interest at all. even if it doesn't work we wouldn't lose much of anything better try to upvote a new one |
AndrewB34 posted... creativename posted...With FFIX vs. FFX, there's some wiggle room because of possible pic factor in OoT vs FFIX, and possible SFF in CT vs. FFX. Both could be very slight, but enough to allow FFX>=FFIX and OoT>=CT both to be true. Sorry, you don't think so what...? That Melee and RBY are close in natural strength? Because they are. The difference in their base GameFAQs strength won't matter too much in terms of net votes vs. Undertale. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Undertale
making leaps and bounds. It's definitely looking like a UT win here,
but I think this push is happening a bit too late to call UT a
Tournament winner just yet. If UT tries to compete with OoT in the ASV, I
think it'll get crushed. --- Nothing bothers me more than the fact that I didn't understand names should start with a capital when I made this account. PSN:Shimotto |
LeonhartFour posted... I know I'm behind but what Allen said about the Twitter thing generating a ton of votes really quickly is probably true. We kinda saw that yesterday when CT's comeback charge against Melee got halted really quickly by that retweet from the Melee pro. It was two or three really big updates in a row and then back to normal. The tweets from the Melee pro players only generated a surge of votes that lasted for up to 15 minutes at the very most. The tweet earlier today generated a surge that has shown no signs of even slowing down. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
Calintares posted... SubDeity posted...So none of you are gonna try rallying anti-SJW types? They're pretty numerous and are very good at Internet-related things. They aren't gonna stick around any longer than the Undertale voters, unless they're already here. --- "Hamas isn't really a terror organization." -Terran [Evil Republican] Play Der Langrisser. |
SubDeity posted... AndrewB34 posted...SubDeity posted...So none of you are gonna try rallying anti-SJW types? They're pretty numerous and are very good at Internet-related things. There was a thread on /r/kotakuinaction about Undertale. They were overwhelmingly positive about it. It is not viewed as an SJW game. |
The reason they thought it was over is because there was strong evidence Undertale was getting a high backfire rate and they actually believed Undertale was completely a rally Pokemon average Intake during 1 hour before the surge: 161.75 Pokemon average intake since the surge started: 181.21 Remember that during this time of day, natural vote intake declines normally. This surge has probably been averaging around 40 votes for Pokemon, per update. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
We've
already established that Undertale, when rallied, gets about 300 votes
per hour. It's actually a pretty fixed constant. We've seen that in this
match and in previous matches. The question has always been whether
Pokemon can rally enough votes to counter that. It was earlier, but now?
Is Pokemon even getting a rally? If not, it's sunk. |
SubDeity posted... AndrewB34 posted...SubDeity posted...So none of you are gonna try rallying anti-SJW types? They're pretty numerous and are very good at Internet-related things. Can we not bring those people here? --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! Future 2015 Guru Contest runner-up. |
Okay, I'll ask. What's ASV? --- Knowledge is power. Power corrupts. Study hard and become evil. |
Bloodychess posted... Okay, I'll ask. After School Vote. --- Hello, I'm Chris! https://media.giphy.com/media/2ZtIpjwFFjLHLNREpCU/giphy.gif |
AndrewB34 posted... SubDeity posted...AndrewB34 posted...SubDeity posted...So none of you are gonna try rallying anti-SJW types? They're pretty numerous and are very good at Internet-related things. Well I guess you're boned then. --- "Hamas isn't really a terror organization." -Terran [Evil Republican] Play Der Langrisser. |
The tweets from the Melee pro players only generated a surge of votes that lasted for up to 15 minutes at the very most. The tweet earlier today generated a surge that has shown no signs of even slowing down. The initial tweet generated a brief surge for 15 minutes, then a longer lasting shift that lasted for hours. If it was just the 15 minute surge, CT would have gone back to cutting after it was over, but it didn't go back to cutting, it went to Melee gaining slowly. This is similar- the initial surge was UT gaining 150/update, and now it's settled into UT gaining 100/update. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
I was a little scared for Undertale a few minutes ago but the cuts since then have been back to normal. Predicting lead change around 8PM EST |
_SecretSquirrel posted... SubDeity posted...AndrewB34 posted...SubDeity posted...So none of you are gonna try rallying anti-SJW types? They're pretty numerous and are very good at Internet-related things. You are assuming these people would actually come to this board rather than just vote and leave. I still dont think that this is a good idea though |
In other news, Super Mario 64 is stomping Skyrim to the surprise of no one. --- Nothing bothers me more than the fact that I didn't understand names should start with a capital when I made this account. PSN:Shimotto |
AndrewB34 posted... _SecretSquirrel posted...I don't want to take the chance.SubDeity posted...AndrewB34 posted...SubDeity posted...So none of you are gonna try rallying anti-SJW types? They're pretty numerous and are very good at Internet-related things. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! Future 2015 Guru Contest runner-up. |
1337gamerpr0 posted... Lopen posted...Omniscientless posted...It's almost cute how people were this match over when there was ample evidence the Undertale demographic is most active starting with the ASV and then never lets go. It'a not even hard to see why. Pretty much yeah. Some "rallies" behave differently than others I'm not just a raving nut. I never once said Smash Bros yesterday for example was anything fishy. Because hey, actual rallies actually look like something resembling how people would vote. When there's something dumb going on, one side just spikes with virtually no movement from the other side. Now I'm not saying Pokemon wasn't also rallying a bit last night, but that's not explaining everything because while there were more votes as a whole in this match last night than against SMW, Undertale also had more votes against Pokemon than Super Mario World had after three hours last night. So like, you can't say "well these extra votes are due to the Pokemon rally" because both sides were getting way more than Undertale was. I prefer to think both sides were rallying, and it actually looked something like what a rally does. With both sides having backfire rate, and probably most of it being Undertale's backfiring-- like you'd never see Pokemon surge and utterly crush Undertale in updates. It would be more like Undertale surges and Pokemon's votes also went up so it couldn't actually hurt it. To me that's evidence most of the successful rallying was coming from the Undertale side, just not as decisively as Undertale fans would like. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Mikisho posted... Undertale making leaps and bounds. It's definitely looking like a UT win here, but I think this push is happening a bit too late to call UT a Tournament winner just yet. If UT tries to compete with OoT in the ASV, I think it'll get crushed. Goddamn you people are stubborn --- Surskit Hi! I like shorts! They're comfy and easy to wear! |
This
contest's version of Ocarina can't beat this version of Undertale. We
have two rounds of proof that Ocarina is way off and is getting
anti-voted. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
To Lopen's point these cuts are surprisingly steady. Ah well. --- Hello, I'm Chris! https://media.giphy.com/media/2ZtIpjwFFjLHLNREpCU/giphy.gif |
Omniscientless posted... Mikisho posted...Undertale making leaps and bounds. It's definitely looking like a UT win here, but I think this push is happening a bit too late to call UT a Tournament winner just yet. If UT tries to compete with OoT in the ASV, I think it'll get crushed. Undertale's rally is nothing, let me say it again in bold for emphasis, NOTHING, compared to Draven's rallying in the last character battle. Link not only kept up, but started cutting away, in leaps bigger than we're seeing from UT right now. The Zelda fanbase is insane. It has a following that is quite fanatical, and if given the correct situation (Read: not having the website crash for 2 hours during it's peak period), I seriously do not think anything can beat it nowadays. I might be wrong, but UT is not giving me a showing that tells me it's gonna win. --- Nothing bothers me more than the fact that I didn't understand names should start with a capital when I made this account. PSN:Shimotto |
I could see stuffing hidden within a rally not being found the first time. But you would think after 4 rounds, there would be patterns that would emerge, especially since the trends are similar and the "final push" is also similar. Edit : I mean from the admins PoV, they would figure it out. (edited 12/8/2015 2:29:22 PM)report |
Lopen posted... Omniscientless posted...It's almost cute how people were this match over when there was ample evidence the Undertale demographic is most active starting with the ASV and then never lets go. It'a not even hard to see why. Lopen, the dynamics of rallying are too chaotic and complicated. Rallies come from different sources. Even two bloggers on Tumblr will have different backfire rates from each other. I'm not worried about this being cheating at all. It's legit. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
red sox 777 posted... Pokemon average Intake during 1 hour before the surge: 161.75 Loaded statistic because we had some nasty dropoffs in some of the updates in the hour before the surge Taking the median intake for both paints a better picture in this regard. Pokemon has been getting pretty close to a consistent 180 before and after the surge, there were just a few "dead" updates where both guys dropped way the hell off in the hour before. After the surge we've had fewer "dead" updates Also uhhh... considering Undertale is pulling in ~150 more votes per update my estimate of 5% isn't even that far off here even using that loaded statistic. 20/150 is like 13%. Like that's still a much lower backfire rate than you'd expect considering how other rallies tend to go, and that Tumblr has favored Pokemon in the past. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Yes I'm well aware no one thinks it's cheating, creativename. Problem is for most people it's for little reason other than "the admin says so" and maybe a bit of "I don't want to admit it's cheating because then there's no hope of it losing." The extreme variance in the behavior of how rallies tend to go depending on who's doing it and what time of the day it is makes me just think you're all wrong about this. *shrug --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Lopen: OOT/FFIX average combined intake, 14:40 to 15:40 - 141.5 OOT/FFIX average combined intake, 15:40 to 17:30 - 130.45 Undertale average intake, 14:40 to 15:40 - 188.83 Undertale average intake, 15:40 to 17:30 - 291.5 Pokemon average intake, 14:40 to 15:40 - 161.75 Pokemon average intake, 15:40 to 17:30 - 181.14 If we assume Pokemon vote intake would fall off by 10 naturally, and UT's stays the same because it's almost completely rally fueled, then the surge is adding about 100/update to Undertale and 30/update to Pokemon. That's a backfire rate of 23%, which is probably lower than the backfire rate last night, but not insignificant. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
UltimaterializerX posted... This contest's version of Ocarina can't beat this version of Undertale. We have two rounds of proof that Ocarina is way off and is getting anti-voted. Yep. |
Mikisho posted... In other news, Super Mario 64 is stomping Skyrim to the surprise of no one. LOLZ Breaking news! |
Loaded statistic because we had some nasty dropoffs in some of the updates in the hour before the surge What do you mean? Individual 5 minute updates are super chaotic, they drop off and spike in every single match, including those without any rallying. It's just random variation. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Why do Undertale need 12 hours to get started? --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Raytan > Me |
UltimaterializerX posted... This contest's version of Ocarina can't beat this version of Undertale. We have two rounds of proof that Ocarina is way off and is getting anti-voted. That's because Gamefaqs hates LoZ, and those matches were LoZ facing off against games with no rally power behind them, therefore they were facing them with solely the gamefaqs vote, thus the anti-voting making a difference. In a rally environment, where people outside of gamefaqs who are not cynical about Link winning this contest all the time are coming in to vote, OoT's power will start to shine. You guys are very bad at looking at accounting for rallies. --- Nothing bothers me more than the fact that I didn't understand names should start with a capital when I made this account. PSN:Shimotto |
Undertale needs 56.4 votes/update to win. |
God damnit Pokemon I knew you were going to lose and then you gave me false hope anyway --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Mikisho posted... That's because Gamefaqs hates LoZ wat |
Mikisho posted... Gamefaqs hates LoZ Wut. |
OOT/FFIX is again a loaded comparison, as that match wasn't debatable and wasn't generating interest. Do it with Chrono Trigger and SSBM, or even a non rallied match such as Skyrim/Metroid Prime and you'll see you're overstating this dropoff. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Vyers posted... There are two types of anti-SJW people. what if I'm an SJW who doesn't particularly care for Undertale --- RIP in Pieces GamerJM, 2007-2015. You will be missed. #UnPermabanJim |
Zylothewolf posted... Why do Undertale need 12 hours to get started? Children vote for it after school. --- "Yugioh has no supernatural elements. Everything is hologram." -MAtt5TER |
Zylothewolf posted... Why do Undertale need 12 hours to get started? It's how Tumblr and anything not League of Legends operates. It takes hours of buildup before there is a payoff. LoL can just sticky and get an instant 20k votes |
Zylothewolf posted... Why do Undertale need 12 hours to get started? We have discerned that Tumblr is responsible for the majority of Undertale's power. Most Tumblr users are in school during the day, so it takes awhile for their strength to pick up steam. --- Yay - Raytan is the guru champion of awesomeness. |
No slowing down, Undertale. It really needs another boost to go the distance. --- 3DS FC: 1805-2178-2522 NNID: Scarlettail |
Mikisho posted... UltimaterializerX posted...This contest's version of Ocarina can't beat this version of Undertale. We have two rounds of proof that Ocarina is way off and is getting anti-voted. This site doesn't hate LoZ. Just two years ago Link was the great white hope. I can't ever think of LoZ getting anti-voted before this contest, or Ocarina/Zelda showing ANY weakness since the 2004 loss. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
School is why Pokemon even looks like it has a chance. SSBM faces Undertale on a weekend. It's going to get buried. --- No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585. Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest! |
ronjamin1022 posted... Zylothewolf posted...Why do Undertale need 12 hours to get started? Are children the only people who come home after 4:00 PM? (EST) Huh... --- Common sense isn't so common. (edited 12/8/2015 2:44:50 PM)report |
People
don't seem to remember this but Link didn't really look that great in
his non-SFF 2010 matches or the first two rounds in 2013 before Draven. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
AzureZero posted... ronjamin1022 posted...Zylothewolf posted...Why do Undertale need 12 hours to get started? --- Smash Wii U username: McTavish |
LeonhartFour posted... People don't seem to remember this but Link didn't really look that great in his non-SFF 2010 matches or the first two rounds in 2013 before Draven. looked great in 2011 though! |
