GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1240
Mario dropping off from the Power Hour is, like, bloody obvious, especially against a Western game like Skyrim. Don't try to pawn that modest percentage fall off on tumblr of all things. --- Goddamn Chrono Trigger |
tgs2 posted... Fr0zoN posted...CaptainOfCrush posted...I'm really surprised that Undertale's tide is helping Skyrim. I know the Tumblr voters didn't care about Mario relative to things like Pokemon and Animal Crossing, but Skyrim is like... the exact opposite. It's puzzling why Mario seems to be so unpopular there. The Undertale rallies have been going on all match though. Mario is doing extremely well regardless. |
Bloodychess posted... -LusterSoldier- posted...http://traceexcalibur.tumblr.com/post/134774738273/pokemon-vs-undertale-in-the-gamefaqs-contest-okay I don't see the issue with it, but I'm trans so obviously slightly biased. --- XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak PSN ID - Kudaark Steam Name : skaalfa |
guffguy89 posted... I love how in just about every rally topic on reddit you get two sorts of difficult people that show up: "This game isn't my favorite in the series, so I can't vote for it to be the best game ever" That's one I saw for both Fallout 3 and Pokemon RBY. --- raytan is the guru champ, yo yo yo He won it in the year of the draggy crow |
"Melee spillover" sounds like what happens before you light a cigarette and call it a night. --- http://i.imgur.com/gByqgPg.gif |
welp |
well, pokemon is keeping the 2,000+ vote lead. Even though the percentage is cutting, it's at least staying consistent. --- Don't mind me. I'm just here for the contest. |
oh, just a fake update |
The
last three SSBM/CT updates were 161, 154, and 147. I doubt there is
much spillover unless those people consciously decided to come back and
vote for this match in the middle of the night. And Pokemon's marginal
Reddit is not responsible for the massive updates this match has been
getting since it started. --- My name is Monica Lewinsky, and I am here to collect the rent. |
Undertale
didn't even start making its first cuts against SMW until right before
the end of this hour. If RBY can hold off that inevitability longer
than that, I'll give it some credit on that front, at least. --- Goddamn Chrono Trigger (edited 12/7/2015 10:38:47 PM)report |
Bloodychess posted... -LusterSoldier- posted...http://traceexcalibur.tumblr.com/post/134774738273/pokemon-vs-undertale-in-the-gamefaqs-contest-okay When tumblr was made --- 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
Karma Hunter posted... Mario dropping off from the Power Hour is, like, bloody obvious, especially against a Western game like Skyrim. Don't try to pawn that modest percentage fall off on tumblr of all things. A voice of reason --- satoru iwata |
SuorGenoveffa posted... By the way, pic factor is kind of a lot of bull crap for the most part IMO. I can't see someone going "I was gonna vote pokémon but it has FRLG sprites OMG better vote Undertale instead". Man, the cleanliness of the voting booth affects what party people vote for. (seriously. A quick google didn't turn it up, but there's a study indicating dirty booth = chaos and disgust = people voting Republican). A match picture has absolutely a chance of affecting the result considering how much of our reactions are instinctual and how much of our conscious thoughts are post-hoc rationalizations of such. |
We're gonna need some backup rallies for when that one eventually falls off. |
RBY_is_BGE posted... We're gonna need some backup rallies for when that one eventually falls off. such as are there like big pokemon facebook pages we can get in touch with or something --- sig pssssssssssst - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/568795-soccer-challenge |
Magmortar75 posted... RBY_is_BGE posted...We're gonna need some backup rallies for when that one eventually falls off. https://www.facebook.com/OneMillionPokemonFans/ |
Okay.
I'm about to do a lot of math, and working through certain assumptions
will give us ranges of expectations. I'm starting this at the 1:35
update, so I'll be a few updates behind by the time I'm done. OOT/FFIX had 7491 votes. Undertale/RBY has 12384 votes. This poll has about 4893 extra votes. The major Undertale Tumblrs went up at 12:40. From 12:40 to 1:35, this poll picked up 6308 votes. OOT/FFIX picked up 3423 votes in the same time frame. This match picked up 2885 extra votes in this time frame. This match had 1972 extra votes in the first 40 minutes. Let's assume that Pokemon is now 70/30 naturally on Undertale. That means that Pokemon picked up about 1066 of the extra votes in the first 40 minutes, or 54% of the extra votes. That means that Pokemon picked up 954 votes in the next 55 minutes, or 33% of the extra votes. I would guess that about 500 of those extra votes came from r/pokemon. If we assume that Pokemon wins those 80/20, our blowback rate is at 23%, which is nowhere near enough for Pokemon. --- Raytan7585 is better than me at redditFAQs |
Magmortar75 posted... RBY_is_BGE posted...We're gonna need some backup rallies for when that one eventually falls off. Might be a fruitful avenue if you're interested. I remember the Skyward Sword Facebook page mentioning the LSD match and Link immediately cut like 250 votes or something insane. --- Such a lust for revenge |
The votals are insane. Undertale has 1629 more votes at this point of time then it did against SMW. --- My butt was devastated by raytan. 3DS FC: 4725-7987-5535 |
The first cut on Super Mario World happened on the next update. |
XIII_rocks posted... Magmortar75 posted...RBY_is_BGE posted...We're gonna need some backup rallies for when that one eventually falls off. This is easily the best option https://www.facebook.com/OneMillionPokemonFans/ 460k likes, very active and doesn't seem too serious. |
Next
update was when Undertale cut Super Mario World. The rallies were late
today, but even still I'd call it a moral victory if RBY can avoid
getting cut this hour. e: And it gets its best update in nearly an hour, not bad (false hope is still hope after all) --- Goddamn Chrono Trigger (edited 12/7/2015 10:55:53 PM)report |
Pokemon is still not doing enough. Its doing well but needs more. |
Karma Hunter posted... Next update was when Undertale cut Super Mario World. The rallies were late today, but even still I'd call it a moral victory if RBY can avoid getting cut this hour. traceexcalibur's rallies never go up right when the match starts. There's always a 20 minute wait or so. --- "What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!" This is Yesmar. Congrats to CBIX Guru Winner *Raytan*! |
If
we assume that Pokemon is 70/30 naturally on Undertale and only got 70%
from the reddit votes, our blowback rate is 25%, also way too low. The stronger Pokemon is naturally, the lower the blowback gets. Basically, everything is favoring undertale right now, unless that reddit rally isn't really doing much. If we assume that reddit rally only drew 200 voters in at 80%, then our blowback rate is 30%, which makes a lot of sense and is right in that range where Pokemon can win it naturally. The reddit votes would push it over the edge in that case. --- Raytan7585 is better than me at redditFAQs |
Undertale is beginning to drop off. If Pokemon keeps this up it can build enough momentum to regain some percentage. |
It's too bad RBY's match picture isn't Gastly, Haunter and Gengar. --- No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585. Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest! |
Karma Hunter posted... ExThaNemesis posted...Karma Hunter posted...Pokemon is doing so very, very, very badly right now. Super Mario World was still over 63% at this point. Yeah, but the votals are through the roof for this point in the match. Something's gotta be causing it, and while pokemon may be rallying a bit that's gotta mostly be Undertale, whether it's from rallies (there were some posted from minute one, mine among them) or just because a few Undertale fans learned the schedule and started coming on matchdays early. |
Team Rocket Elite posted... It's too bad RBY's match picture isn't Gastly, Haunter and Gengar. http://www.myinstants.com/instant/badum-tss/ --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Karma Hunter posted... ExThaNemesis posted...Karma Hunter posted...Pokemon is doing so very, very, very badly right now. Super Mario World was still over 63% at this point. Undertale was rallying off the bat. Just like last time. I don't know where you're getting 40 minutes late? There are a number of people rallying on Tumblr. It's not Reddit, we don't know the exact dynamics and can't time when it started or just why it increases at certain points in intensity. Pokemon might end up 55/45d like SMW, and I do favor Undertale at this point. But the match isn't over and I think you're giving Pokemon too hard a time. I do feel decent about OoT's chances still. This rally isn't wowing me. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
One
of the major tumblrs rallying in the past rounds just posted a Pokemon
challenge earlier today to win shinies. It's possible that they might
not reblog any rallies. --- "What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!" This is Yesmar. Congrats to CBIX Guru Winner *Raytan*! |
Team Rocket Elite posted... It's too bad RBY's match picture isn't Gastly, Haunter and Gengar. Wow. --- raytan is the guru champ, yo yo yo He won it in the year of the draggy crow |
In terms of pure extra votes: Of the 4893 extra votes by 1:35, if Pokemon is 70/30 naturally then it received 2237 of the extra votes, or a whopping 46%. If all rallies stay equal at that level all match, Pokemon wins easily. If Pokemon is 80/20 naturally, then it means that Pokemon received 1488 extra votes, or 30% of all added votes. This would put it right in that range where it's really close. --- Raytan7585 is better than me at redditFAQs |
Nah,
the real reason Undertale hasn't cut yet is because the pick button is
over the Fight button in the match pic, and people on their Pacifist
runs don't want to click that. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! Future 2015 Guru Contest runner-up. |
Undertale matches after 2 hours: game | percent | lead | votals ME3 | 62.94% | 1745 | 6741 FO3 | 65.63% | 2470 | 7904 SMW | 60.96% | 2376 | 10842 RBY | 60.02% | 2921 | 14575 I'm going to sleep now. Someone can continue these comparisons if they'd like to. |
At the 2-hour mark, we have about 5799 rallied/extra votes. If you assume that Pokemon is worth 70% naturally, then it has received 2605 of the extra votes, or 45% of the extra votes. If it's 80/20 naturally, then Pokemon has received 1727 extra votes, or just under 30% of the added votes. The fact that these numbers have tracked down in the last 15 minutes tells me that there was some early spillover votes and that they favored Pokemon. --- Raytan7585 is better than me at redditFAQs |
hylianknight3 posted... Team Rocket Elite posted...It's too bad RBY's match picture isn't Gastly, Haunter and Gengar. I get the feeling if I had actually played Pokemon, I'd find that really funny! --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Still no cuts, but UT probably cracks 40% next update. I hope RBY wins, but it will be exciting if this comes down to the wire. --- ~C~ Eff_Dee http://i.imgur.com/dGDfxaw.png (edited 12/7/2015 11:04:24 PM)report |
Huh...
looking at last round, this is the time when Undertale began to shred
SMW's percentage. Like creativename says, Tumblr is far harder to
predict and far more random than reddit, but if Pokemon can keep the
losses moderate, it won't be long at all until it's ahead of Mario World
in percentage, not just the actual lead. --- http://i.imgur.com/gByqgPg.gif |
It's even better because killing ghosts in Undertale makes you lose EXP. <_< --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
Team Rocket Elite posted... It's too bad RBY's match picture isn't Gastly, Haunter and Gengar. ayyy Pokemon jokes |
Undertale
also hasn't been able to get any traction on its reddit rally yet,
which isn't insignificant. Then there's the threads up on /v/ in
addition to the inflated votals from such a high-profile match and the
endless attempts to Pokerally. I don't see a lot of reason to have faith in RBY even if it eventually drops below Mario World in percentage. Undertale's got time to catch fire. e: And by 'eventually', I mean right now; I forgot how much it started shredding SMW at this point. Still not encouraging updates right now for RBY by any means. --- Goddamn Chrono Trigger (edited 12/7/2015 11:11:47 PM)report |
Janus5k posted... It's even better because killing ghosts in Undertale makes you lose EXP. <_< --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! Future 2015 Guru Contest runner-up. (edited 12/7/2015 11:08:26 PM)report |
And with that... really bad update, Pokemon now has a higher % than Mario World did at this time. --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
alright, that was Pokemon's worst update in a while --- sig pssssssssssst - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/568795-soccer-challenge |
Already about 60/40. If Pokemon doesn't counter rally like hell Undertale is winning. --- Look behind you. I said, look behind you. We're drowning just to keep the score. http://i.imgur.com/zWGMfzO.jpg |
Goodbye pokemon |
Well... at least it's not getting cut 55-45 yet? --- Goddamn Chrono Trigger |
First cut is coming soon. --- Raytan7585 is better than me at redditFAQs |
