That cut was in the range CT needs. 22 more of those and I'll start believing.
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Raytan7585 is better than me at redditFAQs
Also CT just needs every remaining update to be exactly like that. Totally doable! >_>
red sox 777 posted...
34 vote cut. That...met quota.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iEGniXc7Xtc
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Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses
That did not meet quota, but in the right direction.
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Raytan7585 is better than me at redditFAQs
red sox 777 posted...
34 vote cut. That...met quota.


You'll be hanging on with 5 mins left and hoping for a 500 vote swing, won't you?
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ShatteredElysium posted...
creativename posted...
ShatteredElysium posted...
That was all Melee dropping off though which isn't going to be reliable

Not sure why people say stuff like this.

Neither CT gaining or Melee dropping will be more reliable than the other.


Because CT gaining is more reliable than expecting Melee to suddenly consistently start matching its lowest update of the match.

At least when CT made gains, it went up in votals for a few updates in a row rather than being up and down

Not really true.

You'd expect votes to decrease now anyway. Maintaining votes is the same as increasing them in other times.

Honestly it's the opposite. If you got a cut on vote totals in an update of 250 vs. 200, I'd rather do it on 100 vs. 50 because having a larger share of the vote is probably a better indicator for the future vote cutting likelihood.

At 250 vs. 200, you can get a cut just by chance. At 100 vs. 50 you probably have a real edge in that time period.
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creativename posted...
Luster, how do you know how many accounts are created? Account numbers or something?


I can figure out the number of accounts created per day and using that, I was able to calculate how much of a boost we got from the yellow site banner promoting the bracket entry form. The average is about 620 accounts per day and the yellow site banner boosted that up to 1054 accounts created during the final day of bracket entries.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
(edited 12/7/2015 7:16:01 PM)report
I wouldn't say no to some 50 or 60 vote cuts. I know Frog has them in him!
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.
Qwaar posted...
red sox 777 posted...
34 vote cut. That...met quota.


You'll be hanging on with 5 mins left and hoping for a 500 vote swing, won't you?


I'll be

CT is like the one big fun storyline we have left and I am sinking with the ship, dammit!
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-LusterSoldier- posted...
The average is about 620 accounts per day.


Wow, we suck.
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Hey man, LlamaGuy did encrypt the passwords.
With what? ROT-13? -CJayC
Eh... guys. Random thought.

Assuming Undertale vs SM64 and Melee vs FF7 happen in the same day.

Any chance the two rally spillovers may influence each other?

Like, do Undertale fans prefer Melee or FF7?

And assuming the Melee voters all prefer SM64, is it enough to boost it to beat Undertale?

This is almost like if the 4-ways format was revived.
Yeah, Melee falling is more expected for this time period, as vote intake drops.

But! For CT to win, rising votals are better, because CT basically needs to rally to win. Doubling Melee with the meager natural SNV won't be enough, its got to bring in some outside votes.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.
ZeldaTPLink posted...
Eh... guys. Random thought.

Assuming Undertale vs SM64 and Melee vs FF7 happen in the same day.

Any chance the two rally spillovers may influence each other?

Like, do Undertale fans prefer Melee or FF7?

And assuming the Melee voters all prefer SM64, is it enough to boost it to beat Undertale?

This is almost like if the 4-ways format was revived.


It's actually the opposite of the way SFF functioned in 4-ways. This is AFF (Allied Fanbase Factor).
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creativename posted...
ShatteredElysium posted...
creativename posted...
ShatteredElysium posted...
That was all Melee dropping off though which isn't going to be reliable

Not sure why people say stuff like this.

Neither CT gaining or Melee dropping will be more reliable than the other.


Because CT gaining is more reliable than expecting Melee to suddenly consistently start matching its lowest update of the match.

At least when CT made gains, it went up in votals for a few updates in a row rather than being up and down

Not really true.

You'd expect votes to decrease now anyway. Maintaining votes is the same as increasing them in other times.

Honestly it's the opposite. If you got a cut on vote totals in an update of 250 vs. 200, I'd rather do it on 100 vs. 50 because having a larger share of the vote is probably a better indicator for the future vote cutting likelihood.

At 250 vs. 200, you can get a cut just by chance. At 100 vs. 50 you probably have a real edge in that time period.


Except what I said stands. That 58 is the outlier and the rest of Melees updates are in the same range its been in for a while. Melee wasn't suddenly going to start getting 58 or lower updates on a consistent basis is what I meant. It was more likely CT would spike again or stay consistent than Melee completely dropping off a cliff
Slowing down. I'm surprised, I thought Melee was going for maximum despair.
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I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
Well since Ct is picking up again I'll post the stats for the facebook post once more:

1,124 People Reached

22 Likes, Comments & Shares

101 Post Clicks

FB post didn't garner much attention despite 60k followers. I wonder if twitter brought in more and now due to the nature of twitter it's completely died off?

There won't be anymore rallies for melee that I know of.
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www.twitter.com/Hylian88
These paltry cuts aren't making it exciting. Quota is now 36.6 votes per update.
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Raytan7585 is better than me at redditFAQs
It's not over. We've seen crazier s*** involving Chrono Trigger
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"This is all we have... when we die.."
I just want to see someone vote stuff 900 votes for CT in the last 10 minutes so we get some excitement before everything goes up in flames.
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Hey man, LlamaGuy did encrypt the passwords.
With what? ROT-13? -CJayC
Yeah but votals were a lot higher then. I don't think we're suddenly going to start seeing 50+ vote cuts even if it would be awesome.
Quota is now 38.5
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Raytan7585 is better than me at redditFAQs
Ugh, these stalls are not going to do it. If only we could extend the poll to midnight Pacific!
---
September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.
ShatteredElysium posted...
Except what I said stands. That 58 is the outlier and the rest of Melees updates are in the same range its been in for a while. Melee wasn't suddenly going to start getting 58 or lower updates on a consistent basis is what I meant. It was more likely CT would spike again or stay consistent than Melee completely dropping off a cliff

You are looking at it wrong I think. Overall 50 votes is 50 votes, but it's better to do it on small vote totals than high.

Let's use a much more extreme example to make what I'm saying more apparent. Would you rather get a 50 cut on votes of 55 to 5, or 2050 to 2000? Which speaks better of your chances?

For most purposes it's really irrelevant, a cuts a cut. But ceteris paribus, cuts are better on lower votals. It isn't better for CT that it go up than for Melee to go down.

red sox 777 posted...
Yeah, Melee falling is more expected for this time period, as vote intake drops.

But! For CT to win, rising votals are better, because CT basically needs to rally to win. Doubling Melee with the meager natural SNV won't be enough, its got to bring in some outside votes.

The "stock" if CT would rise a lot more on a 55 to 5 vote update than one with heavy votals.
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Someone needs to hack Nick and make another CT post lol
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"This is all we have... when we die.."
There goes Melee again. Too strong were the rallies.
---
September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.
-LusterSoldier- posted...
creativename posted...
Luster, how do you know how many accounts are created? Account numbers or something?


I can figure out the number of accounts created per day and using that, I was able to calculate how much of a boost we got from the yellow site banner promoting the bracket entry form. The average is about 620 accounts per day and the yellow site banner boosted that up to 1054 accounts created during the final day of bracket entries.

But how do you figure out how many accounts are being made?
---
www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
Quota is now at 42.4. I don't see any need to update quotas anymore. It would now take gains as big as the Power Hour. Even the miracle seems out of reach at this point.
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Raytan7585 is better than me at redditFAQs
-hotdogturtle-- posted...
I just want to see someone vote stuff 900 votes for CT in the last 10 minutes so we get some excitement before everything goes up in flames.

"Results stand. Melee was caught stuffing at a 2:1 ratio."
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
Yo, didn't ProJared recently put up a video 'gasming over Chrono Trigger? Someone get him to tweet this s***.
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Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses
With the way the first 15 minutes went last night, if people were allowed to vote a second time and this poll was extended by 15 minutes, Crono might actually win.
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Raytan7585 is better than me at redditFAQs
I just realized that if Pokemon beats Undertale I have a legit chance to finish super high on the board. Here are my rmaining matches (and I got both matches right today):

RBY > (SMW)
SM64 > (Metroid Prime)
OoT > (Banjo-Kazooie lololol)
LttP > Majora's Mask
SMRPG > RE4 (picked every match right in this division except I had WoW beating CC and San Andreas)
MGS3 > MGS

FF7 > Melee (not happening)
RBY > SM64
OoT > LttP
MGS3 > SMRPG

RBY > FF7
OoT > MGS3

OoT > RBY

ok...nevermind for some reason I thought I picked MGS to win. Plus did not realize I had MGS3 in the semis lol.

Currently at 152 points so unless I get every match right probably not going to leaderboard.
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MechanicalWall posted...
Yo, didn't ProJared recently put up a video 'gasming over Chrono Trigger? Someone get him to tweet this s***.


People have been trying apparently
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"This is all we have... when we die.."
Hylian88 posted...
Well since Ct is picking up again I'll post the stats for the facebook post once more:

1,124 People Reached

22 Likes, Comments & Shares

101 Post Clicks

FB post didn't garner much attention despite 60k followers. I wonder if twitter brought in more and now due to the nature of twitter it's completely died off?

There won't be anymore rallies for melee that I know of.

Thanks a lot for the detailed numbers!

When was this posted?
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creativename posted...
You are looking at it wrong I think. Overall 50 votes is 50 votes, but it's better to do it on small vote totals than high.

Let's use a much more extreme example to make what I'm saying more apparent. Would you rather get a 50 cut on votes of 55 to 5, or 2050 to 2000? Which speaks better of your chances?

For most purposes it's really irrelevant, a cuts a cut. But ceteris paribus, cuts are better on lower votals. It isn't better for CT that it go up than for Melee to go down.



I wasn't saying it's not reliable because it's worth less cutwise. I was saying it's not reliable because it was far less likely to happen on a consistent basis.
Nearly final CT facebook numbers.

Anymore i bring in now won't make a difference.

People reached: 14000~17000 total over the day

Votes brought in: i dunno 6?

Ugh
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Whiskey Nick on his cell phone
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ShatteredElysium posted...
creativename posted...
You are looking at it wrong I think. Overall 50 votes is 50 votes, but it's better to do it on small vote totals than high.

Let's use a much more extreme example to make what I'm saying more apparent. Would you rather get a 50 cut on votes of 55 to 5, or 2050 to 2000? Which speaks better of your chances?

For most purposes it's really irrelevant, a cuts a cut. But ceteris paribus, cuts are better on lower votals. It isn't better for CT that it go up than for Melee to go down.



I wasn't saying it's not reliable because it's worth less cutwise. I was saying it's not reliable because it was far less likely to happen on a consistent basis.

But that's not really true. It's not more indicative of a CT burst in strength for it to go up, than Melee to go down. If anything it's the opposite.

Working with the extreme numbers again, a 55 to 5 update would be such a strong indicator of CT's chances that you'd dismiss it as a glitch.
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RPGlord95 posted...
Nearly final CT facebook numbers.

Anymore i bring in now won't make a difference.

People reached: 14000~17000 total over the day

Votes brought in: i dunno 6?

Ugh

Well you tried! Really that's not bad at all :)

Do you have likes or post click numbers?
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Since there's only 75 minutes left, I'll give this one to the CT fans

Misha Mansoor and his band Periphery are HUGE Chrono Trigger fans. They literally named tracks on Periphery II after s*** from Chrono Trigger.
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http://www.last.fm/user/VinnyMendoza
"This is all we have... when we die.."
I'm guessing you brought in 100-200 votes with that FB page.
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Raytan7585 is better than me at redditFAQs
I think Nick's page brought in at least 500 over the course of the day, as much as 2-300 in that one hour where it stopped Melee's momentum.
---
September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.
inb4 the poll is extended by two hours and Chrono Trigger wins it all
DaruniaTheGoron posted...
Since there's only 75 minutes left, I'll give this one to the CT fans

Misha Mansoor and his band Periphery are HUGE Chrono Trigger fans. They literally named tracks on Periphery II after s*** from Chrono Trigger.


Who?
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lol xstats
90 minutes! I still want the hero of time's 90 minutes!
---
September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.
creativename posted...
Hylian88 posted...
Well since Ct is picking up again I'll post the stats for the facebook post once more:

1,124 People Reached

22 Likes, Comments & Shares

101 Post Clicks

FB post didn't garner much attention despite 60k followers. I wonder if twitter brought in more and now due to the nature of twitter it's completely died off?

There won't be anymore rallies for melee that I know of.

Thanks a lot for the detailed numbers!

When was this posted?


The facebook post was posted at 6:30 pm central.
---
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www.twitter.com/Hylian88
12/7/2015 7:59:03 PM#445
I was looking at old Gamespot Stats topic and found this old post:

"Gordon gained an estimated 36000 votes from the Valve rally. It took 57 hours from the start of the match for Gordon to reach 36000 votes. Valve rallyed it in 16 hours. I think that's enough to swing 70-30 matches here the other way if they rallyed for 24 hours. This also means Link would probably still beat Gordon here."

Wouldn't it be nice if we still had the votals to no sell a rally even from Valve?
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No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585.
Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest!
Do you guys think that Melee can beat FF7 if it gets a similar rally?
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12/7/2015 8:01:41 PM#447
Well FF7 is weaker than CT so SSBM would beat FF7 without any problems with the same rally.
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No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585.
Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest!
OrangeCrush980 posted...
Do you guys think that Melee can beat FF7 if it gets a similar rally?


The backfire right is going to be way bigger, what with Cloud in Smash, but more importantly, FFVII is way more recognizable than Chrono Trigger is. Even mild backfire is enough to salvage the win for FFVII, assuming it equals Chrono Trigger.
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Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses
Valve is a lot bigger now than back then too, I think a Valve rally now would be able to crush our old voterbase.
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12/7/2015 8:04:27 PM#450
GranzonEx posted...
Valve is a lot bigger now than back then too, I think a Valve rally now would be able to crush our old voterbase.


That is true. Even with older votals, current Valve would probably still crush us.
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Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest!

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