GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1239
LordOfDabu posted... The fact that it still might win is crazy. Yes, crazy because it's not going to happen :( --- Every day the rest of your life is changed forever. |
All Chrono needed was a small rally to put it over. Shame that its going to fall short whilst being this close. |
I think GameFAQs will pull through if it's close in the last hour. --- Watch me play games! http://www.twitch.tv/lordofdabu |
MechanicalWall posted... Julian_Caesar posted...Undertale is definitely going to have to earn every victory between here and final boss OoT. The final is guaranteed to be boring barring a CT miracle. |
Allen is doing us a favor with that Pokemon pic Think of it this way. How many tumblrinas will vote for RBY if they saw the ugly GB sprites? How many will instantly recognize they're voting for Pokemon with the current pic? Only b8 cares about nostalgia pics. --- Your signature is automatically appended to the bottom of every post you make. Your 'About Me' message is displayed on your profile page. You can include any in |
LordOfDabu posted... I think GameFAQs will pull through if it's close in the last hour. http://grief.com/the-five-stages-of-grief/ --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
It
looks like if CT had received any sort of rally of note it would have
been enough to overturn this. Which is kinda disappointing given that CT
is known for it's general skullduggery and in a match where it would
have made it close, it never materialized |
I will say this about the Polemon picture. I don't think it's *bad* - it's that I don't think it's great. Pic advantage is something RBY normally enjoys by default. Nostalgia is huge for it. This pic won't give it that. Perhaps people are right that this will play better with Tumblr, but I'm skeptical of that. I think a good Gameboy sprite plays well with everyone. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
I
assumed people on tumblr would be more likely to be attracted to the
anime than the actual game. I'm probably not talking out of my mouth
though. --- Watch me play games! http://www.twitch.tv/lordofdabu |
Isn't
tumblr the best place to rally for Pokemon? It has millions of Pokemon
fans, but only hundreds of thousands of Undertale fans. --- All the stars in the sky are waiting for you. |
It
literally doesn't matter what the picture is. Pokemon is so insanely
strong that it's going to be putting 85-15 down on that tumblr trash
from the start. --- "I'll admit that I made one or two sarcastic remarks in this topic, but in all serious I akin Undertale to fascism." -ArgaiRonso |
Oh s*** just realized I haven't voted yet DON'T WORRY GUYS I'VE GOT THIS, 1 VOTE TO THE RESCUE --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
I like the Pokemon pic |
tgs2 posted... The final is guaranteed to be boring barring a CT miracle. FFVII has been building a case for itself, though. --- Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses |
MechanicalWall posted... Julian_Caesar posted...Undertale is definitely going to have to earn every victory between here and final boss OoT. Don't underestimate Link's ability to resist rallies, very few games are as widely loved as OoT. The only way the final would be boring would be OoT fans rallying from the start and burying Tumblr the way Link rallied against Draven. Also, you have to remember that there will be a yellow site banner for that match. Luster's numbers showed that about 70% more brackets were filled out because of the banner, and since voting is easier than making a bracket his guess is that the number of poll votes should double compared to non-banner polls. Right now the GameFAQs natural voting pool seems to be 45k-50k, could increase to 55k by the time the final rolls around. Even if Luster is way off, a total 80k voting pool (due to site banner) from GameFAQs would be devastating for Undertale. OoT easily 80-20's that game in natural strength, but let's assume 5% anti-votes to make it 75-25. That's a gap vote of 40,000 votes. Which, as red sox showed in analysis of Fallout/SMW, is just less than the TOTAL number of rallied votes from Tumblr. And facing OoT, the backfire rate for rallied votes will be higher than any game besides Pokemon. Bottom line...even with contest momentum, Undertale has a long way to go before I would feel safe picking it to beat OoT. --- Every day the rest of your life is changed forever. |
ExThaNemesis posted... It literally doesn't matter what the picture is. Pokemon is so insanely strong that it's going to be putting 85-15 down on that tumblr trash from the start. Undertale could probably avoid a tripling just on it's base bandwagon GameFAQs strength now. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Um,
based on the snowballing of Undertale's rally, OoT could win 100% of
the Gamefaqs vote and still lose. We're going to have to find somewhere
else to rally for an OoT win to happen. --- Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses |
Even
if Pokemon wins, it will fall to FFVII or OoT without much of a
challenge, unless the rallies continue somehow. OoT is going to end up
in the finals no matter what, and Undertale is probably the only
opponent left that could fight it. --- 3DS FC: 1805-2178-2522 NNID: Scarlettail |
MechanicalWall posted... tgs2 posted...The final is guaranteed to be boring barring a CT miracle. FF7 has to beat rallied Melee, rallied Undertale, then normal OoT in order to win. I could see it being rallied on a site with stuff about the remake to beat MAYBE one of those three opponents, but I doubt it could beat all of them within a few days' time. --- Every day the rest of your life is changed forever. |
MechanicalWall posted... Um, based on the snowballing of Undertale's rally, OoT could win 100% of the Gamefaqs vote and still lose. We're going to have to find somewhere else to rally for an OoT win to happen. Undertale's rally has not snowballed much at all. It did after the Mass Effect match, yes, but there was not much increase in rallied votes between Fallout 3 and SMW matches. EDIT: of course OoT will be rallied, Zelda fans are quite good at finding places to rally (a la Link/Shepard/Draven). And as said before, OoT likely steals a higher % of tumblr votes than any game besides Pokemon. --- Every day the rest of your life is changed forever. (edited 12/7/2015 6:45:45 PM)report |
I
think people are overreacting about the pic here. Undertale looks like
ass, and Pokemon has Pikachu and the 3 starters. What more do you need? --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy -trancer1 lol xstats |
https://twitter.com/tsm_leffen/status/673900804257005568 Not sure if old but at least Leffen isn't going to get involved like Armada. --- My butt was devastated by raytan. 3DS FC: 4725-7987-5535 |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted... I think people are overreacting about the pic here. Undertale looks like ass, and Pokemon has Pikachu and the 3 starters. What more do you need? Undertale doesn't look bad at all for fans of the game. --- 3DS FC: 1805-2178-2522 NNID: Scarlettail |
Julian_Caesar posted... MechanicalWall posted...tgs2 posted...The final is guaranteed to be boring barring a CT miracle. Seems like triple impossible. --- Video Games are pretty cool. |
Julian_Caesar posted... FF7 has to beat rallied Melee, rallied Undertale, then normal OoT in order to win. I could see it being rallied on a site with stuff about the remake to beat MAYBE one of those three opponents, but I doubt it could beat all of them within a few days' time. I was referring to non-rally circumstances, not our current condition. But even then, the backfire rate of Melee vs. FFVII is going to be way bigger than it was against Chrono Trigger, assuming the rally even sustains its momentum. So I feel safe that FFVII can take Melee if the rally doesn't escalate (which it probably will). It'll still lose to Undertale, though, so it's a moot point. --- Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses |
Julian_Caesar posted... Also, you have to remember that there will be a yellow site banner for that match. Luster's numbers showed that about 70% more brackets were filled out because of the banner, and since voting is easier than making a bracket his guess is that the number of poll votes should double compared to non-banner polls. 70% more accounts were created during the time period with the yellow site banner in effect compared to an equivalent time period without a site banner at all. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
Scarlettail posted... BlAcK TuRtLe posted...I think people are overreacting about the pic here. Undertale looks like ass, and Pokemon has Pikachu and the 3 starters. What more do you need? I played the game and it was alright, the art style in that game looks like hot garbage, especially when up against something as photogenic as Pokemon. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy -trancer1 lol xstats |
-LusterSoldier- posted... Julian_Caesar posted...Also, you have to remember that there will be a yellow site banner for that match. Luster's numbers showed that about 70% more brackets were filled out because of the banner, and since voting is easier than making a bracket his guess is that the number of poll votes should double compared to non-banner polls. Whoops my bad. Thanks for correcting. --- Every day the rest of your life is changed forever. |
Undertale's pic looks really good. Could use more Mettaton though. --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
MechanicalWall posted... Julian_Caesar posted...FF7 has to beat rallied Melee, rallied Undertale, then normal OoT in order to win. I could see it being rallied on a site with stuff about the remake to beat MAYBE one of those three opponents, but I doubt it could beat all of them within a few days' time. You mean because Cloud is in the new Smash game? I can't think of any other reason why FF7 would have a higher backfire rate. --- Every day the rest of your life is changed forever. |
Julian_Caesar posted... Undertale's rally has not snowballed much at all. It did after the Mass Effect match, yes, but there was not much increase in rallied votes between Fallout 3 and SMW matches. Excuse me, what? Are you going based off percentages or something? There was almost an 18,000 votal increase between the Fallout 3 and SMW matches. --- Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses |
Where are you guys seeing those pics? |
Right
click one of the contest images and select "View Background Image".
Then increment the number until you get to tomorrow's matches. --- "This place has a nice view of Hod. And also... I promised someone." - Asch, Tales of the Abyss |
Someone linked them on the previous page. --- raytan is the guru champ, yo yo yo He won it in the year of the draggy crow |
LeonhartFour posted... -LusterSoldier- posted...http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r4/35.jpg Thanks! |
Luster, how do you know how many accounts are created? Account numbers or something? Julian_Caesar posted... MechanicalWall posted...Julian_Caesar posted...FF7 has to beat rallied Melee, rallied Undertale, then normal OoT in order to win. I could see it being rallied on a site with stuff about the remake to beat MAYBE one of those three opponents, but I doubt it could beat all of them within a few days' time. Because CT should have a horrible backfire rate. It isn't a famous game to most people. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
I've never played Undertale but that's a great pic by whoever made it. I imagine it will get votes very well. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
CT cuts 27....still missed quota. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
That was all Melee dropping off though which isn't going to be reliable |
The saddest moment of all time will be when Chrono Trigger loses to SSBM with 49.95%. --- Yay - Raytan is the guru champion of awesomeness. |
That's where Melee should be if it's rallying finally dries up! --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
ShatteredElysium posted... That was all Melee dropping off though which isn't going to be reliable Not sure why people say stuff like this. Neither CT gaining or Melee dropping will be more reliable than the other. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
votals are too low for anything to happen now. still the fact CT kept this close against like 3 rallies and pro players and sites tweeting in support of melee is pretty amazing. had the rallies started like..1 hour later, CT would probably have won. |
What
is disappointing is that without that last minute tweet/facebook post,
CT looks like it would have had this. It looks like it would have easily
been carving out the required cuts |
creativename posted... I've never played Undertale but that's a great pic by whoever made it. Thanks. I really hope it does now, though I don't think you'll see too much variation in Undertale pic submissions until the semis. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! Future 2015 Guru Contest runner-up. |
MechanicalWall posted... Julian_Caesar posted...Undertale's rally has not snowballed much at all. It did after the Mass Effect match, yes, but there was not much increase in rallied votes between Fallout 3 and SMW matches. Votals =/= rallied votes. There was a sizable increase in GameFAQs votes as well, for the other matches in that round. I doubt red sox is in a posting mood but if you look back at the stats topics he did a post analyzing the actual number of rallied votes. It's not a very large difference between the two rounds. Here's my quick analysis based on votals from other matches of the rounds: Round 3 showed up to 47k total votes prior to Undertale's match, compared to 40k in most Round 2 matches prior to Undertale's match. Meaning that at least 7k (and probably closer to 8-9k since it was a hyped match) of those added 18k votals came from the site itself. And we know that contest matches have always increased votals as the contest goes on so this is an expected trend. That means GameFAQs accounted for ~55k of the votes in a match that accumulated 98k votes, leaving the rallied votals at ~45k. Compared to the previous match where GameFAQs accounted for ~40k in a match that got 80k votes, leaving the rallied votals at ~40k. A difference of just ~5k additional votes. And that can't be blamed on Tumblr "slowing down" once the match was in hand. Tumblr depends on reblogging and is a slower cumulative process (as far as I can tell). It's not like reddit where a rally can fall off the main page and slow way down when someone is far ahead. Obviously if tumblr gets new big bloggers on board, that changes things. But if the usual routes are used then I wouldn't expect it to increase against Pokemon any higher than ~50k rallied votes. --- Every day the rest of your life is changed forever. |
creativename posted... ShatteredElysium posted...That was all Melee dropping off though which isn't going to be reliable Because CT gaining is more reliable than expecting Melee to suddenly consistently start matching its lowest update of the match. At least when CT made gains, it went up in votals for a few updates in a row rather than being up and down (edited 12/7/2015 7:05:24 PM)report |
34 vote cut. That...met quota. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
