GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1235
ROUND 3 – DAY 8 – ALL OF DIVISION 8 Match CXI: (1) Metal Gear Solid vs. (5) Shadow of the Colossus Previous Rounds Metal Gear Solid 79.07% against Splatoon 60.34% against Earthbound Shadow of the Colossus 72.69% against Team Fortress 2 59.23% against Red Dead Redemption Analysis Needing a strong night vote just to break 60% on Earthbound is not very impressive. While it is likely Earthbound was SFF back in 2009 by Chrono Trigger and Yoshi’s Island it is hard not to call this an underperformance. Lucky enough for Metal Gear Solid Shadow of the Colossus also didn’t look the greatest last round. While I do believe Red Dead Redemption has some strength it is doubtful that it is stronger than the GTA games. While this still means Shadow of the Colossus still has strength it doesn’t make it look like it should be the favourite. I feel some people are a bit quick to dismiss Shadow of the Colossus though. Just because Metal Gear Solid is the strongest game of the series and the game previously lost to MGS3 in 2010 doesn’t mean Shadow of the Colossus doesn’t have a chance in 2015. For the most part the Metal Gear Solid series has been underperforming and Shadow of the Colossus could potentially use that to its advantage. charmander6000’s Bracket: Metal Gear Solid > Shadow of the Colossus charmander6000’s Prediction: Metal Gear Solid wins, 54.13% - 45.87% Match CXII: (3) Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater vs. (2) Mass Effect 2 Previous Rounds Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater 69.50% against Mother 3 52.03% against BioShock Mass Effect 2 79.08% against Zero Escape: Virtue’s Last Reward 51.12% against Starcraft Analysis Honestly I don’t like the chances of either game. Mass Effect 2 couldn’t break 80% on a game with a legit argument pre-contest at being the weakest game in the bracket and in the second round it required a counter-rally to defeat Starcraft. Sure Starcraft looked really good against Destiny, but that more had to do with Destiny being that weak. Though to Starcraft’s credit, the third part of Starcraft II was just recently released. On the other side Metal Gear Solid 3 didn’t do too much better than Devil May Cry 3 on Mother 3 and then it let BioShock get dangerously close. While rallying for both Mass Effect 2 and Starcraft likely helped BioShock it is still a bad performance when you consider how well Silent Hill 2 did in the previous round. To me this comes down to my relative distrust on Starcraft. It’s also very hard to see BioShock being weaker than BioShock Infinite so maybe Silent Hill 2 is stronger for whatever reason. BioShock did have strength back in 2010 where it got almost 44% on Kingdom Hearts II. On the same wavelength it is hard to picture Mass Effect 2 at being weaker than Mass Effect so in the end Metal Gear Solid 3 doesn’t have much space to work with. charmander6000’s Bracket: Metal Gear Solid 3 > Mass Effect 2 charmander6000’s Prediction: Metal Gear Solid 3 wins, 51.32% - 48.68% --- BGE3: Today's Matches SMRPG > Chrono Cross, RE4 > MGS2 Points 147/176 |
So, what are ME2's chances tonight? --- XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak PSN ID - Kudaark Steam Name : skaalfa |
Alright,
some x-stats have already been thrown around trying to predict SMRPG
vs. RE4, but I thought I would add a little bit more to that. X-stats pegging Oblivion to its GotD x-stat: Super Mario RPG 41.53 Oblivion 37.85 GTAV 35.55 Chrono Cross 32.76 San Andreas 29.60 World of Warcraft 27.48 Shenmue 26.77 Now, x-stats assuming MGS2 = MGS3 and pegging Bioshock 2015 to Bioshock 2010: RE4 40.36 MGS2 36.57 Paper Mario 33.19 RE 31.63 (who cares about the other games) Now just assuming a constant RE4: RE4 43.09 MGS2 39.05 Paper Mario 33.77 RE 35.45 Based on pure numbers and without accounting for...certain other things, to be explained below.... I think SMRPG should be the favorite over RE! Now, there are a couple of troubling things... for one thing, the fact that Morrowind is expected to get 37% on Skyrim based on Metroid Prime. But as people talked about Morrowind was supposed to get 37% on Oblivion based on 2010! But, does this really mean Oblivion has to be weaker than the stats suggest in GotD? Oblivion scored almost 44% on Wind Waker. It also beat Paper Mario:TTYD handily. One cannot deny Oblivion's strength at that time. Really, why should Oblivion weaken if Skyrim only got 51% on Prime? Keep in mind some rally spillover caused Skyrim to underperform by a point or two. Prime (and Morrowind) is clearly at a different level from when it was in Game of the Decade, too. That gives plenty of room for Oblivion to be weaker than Skyrim without losing a step. So, I'll conclude that Oblivion's strength probably should not be doubted too much. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
Those numbers are screwy. GTAV being that strong is weird. That would require amazing playrate for a 2010s game. --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png LongLiveraytan |
Hey i just became a sage neat --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png LongLiveraytan |
A
second troubling thing is SMRPG vs. Chrono Cross itself. There's
always the possibility of an SMRPG overperformance here, being two
Square games only three years apart. I can't deny it. However, the
result is actually pretty consistent with SMRPG's score on Oblivion....
Oblivion was quite a bit above San Andreas in GotD (not in 2009 4-ways,
though). Here's a third potentially troubling thing: even if SMRPG vs. Chrono Cross is "accurate", could Chrono Cross be anywhere near Paper Mario? It has to be for SMRPG to take on RE4, as RE4 got 58.88% on PM. It's true that CC did just a point worse than PM on World of Warcraft, but there's reason to believe WoW and San Andreas have weakened further.... nothing even remotely certain, but certainly it's a hunch that many people have. Regardless, WoW and San Andreas were rather consistent with each other between this contest and the last, so there's still a good shot they haven't fallen off the map. Based on current numbers, if RE4 and SMRPG tie, Paper Mario gets 52.21% on Chrono Cross. Additionally, if SMRPG beats RE4, it puts Paper Mario a little bit low in the stats... that is troubling, indeed, for those wanting SMRPG to win. However, when consider TTYD vs. FFVI and FFVI vs. The Wind Waker.... I won't show a calculation here, but TTYD has actually fallen off a bit if you assume a constant Wind Waker! So the possibility of Paper Mario being weaker this contest can't be denied. There might be other arguments that hurt SMRPG's chances as well. If you think MGS2 could be that strong after seeing MGS3 struggle with Bioshock, or have some other argument, I'd to hear the reasoning. As for the "SMRPG can't be much stronger than PM" argument....whatever, if you believe that, you believe that, but there's not much to back that up. Oh, and I'd like to add something about GTAV.... is it really that weird for it to be as high as 35.55% when GTAIII was at 37.45% in GotD? Granted GTAIII was overrated there, but still....! --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." (edited 12/5/2015 7:23:01 PM)report |
red sox 777 posted... I think that MGS picture looks really cool. On the other hand, "Solid" is barely visible and I'm guessing will be completely invisible on mobile, making this quite a bad picture overall. It still has a better mobile picture than Shadow, which may as well just be the logo here. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! Future 2015 Guru Contest winner. |
_SecretSquirrel posted... It still has a better mobile picture than Shadow, which may as well just be the logo here. The Shadow of the Colossus title being clear is better than some people actually mistaking Metal Gear Solid for Metal Gear, which unlike the Ocarina 'screw-up', could actually be really, really bad for the game. --- Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses |
red sox 777 posted... I think that MGS picture looks really cool. On the other hand, "Solid" is barely visible and I'm guessing will be completely invisible on mobile, making this quite a bad picture overall. http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/2aday-template.jpg The blue area in that picture is what will be shown to mobile users. The MGS logo should still be clear to mobile voters. --- No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585. Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest! |
pjbasis posted... Those numbers are screwy. GTAV being that strong is weird. That would require amazing playrate for a 2010s game. As HM alluded too, it sold crazy amounts. 54 million copies according to Wikipedia. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_games Even on this site it should have a respectable playrate. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
GTA5 is very well liked among hardcore GTA fans from what I see while anything between San Andreas and 5 was kinda mixed. so GTA5 being kind of legit makes sense to me --- Anime List: http://myanimelist.net/profile/superange VG List: http://myvideogamelist.com/profile/superange128 Visual Novels: https://vndb.org/u6633/votes |
Team Rocket Elite posted... red sox 777 posted...I think that MGS picture looks really cool. On the other hand, "Solid" is barely visible and I'm guessing will be completely invisible on mobile, making this quite a bad picture overall. My iPhone seems to cut off more of the bottom of the pic, really. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! Future 2015 Guru Contest winner. |
I
just realized Xenogears is really close to TTYD in the x-stats this
contest. That does me feel a little bit better about CC vs. PM, and in
turn, RE4 vs. SMRPG.... not that I really am expecting SMRPG to win.
There's just a lot of stuff suggesting it COULD win.... The only reference we have comparing CC vs. Xenogears is that CC was doubled by FFIX, while Xenogears was tripled by FFVIII . At the very least CC appears to not be weaker than XG, but obviously there was more SFF in one of those matches. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
I'd
be willing to bet that if you asked the average gamer what comes to
mind first when you say "Metal Gear," he/she would bring up one of the
Metal Gear Solid games in particular, or the whole series post-Metal
Gear 2 in general. The series wasn't even a blip on the radar until MGS. |
If
SMRPG makes it past RE4, it might make it past MGS as well. It would be
quite amusing if the safe haven SBAllen made for non-Square and
non-Nintendo games got ruined by a Square-Nintendo collaboration. --- No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585. Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest! |
pjbasis posted... Those numbers are screwy. GTAV being that strong is weird. That would require amazing playrate for a 2010s game. literally 50 million copies --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
I personally think SMRPG not releasing in Europe will be its kryptonite that makes it not advance past MGS1 if it gets there. --- Anime List: http://myanimelist.net/profile/superange VG List: http://myvideogamelist.com/profile/superange128 Visual Novels: https://vndb.org/u6633/votes |
If
there's any series on this site that's screwy enough to have its recent
game significantly more popular than its PS2-gen counterparts, it's
GTA. This site just doesn't seem to be nostalgic for them. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! Future 2015 Guru Contest winner. |
Team Rocket Elite posted... If SMRPG makes it past RE4, it might make it past MGS as well. It would be quite amusing if the safe haven SBAllen made for non-Square and non-Nintendo games got ruined by a Square-Nintendo collaboration. Never occurred to me that's what Allen was doing with those weaksauce divisions... --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
DaruniaTheGoron posted... MGS1 gonna 55-45 SOTC. Quote me if I'm wrong. Saving this for the inevitable 50/50 MGS vs SOTC match |
It would be quite amusing if the safe haven SBAllen made for non-Square and non-Nintendo games got ruined by a Square-Nintendo collaboration. Excellent! And his safe haven contest for non-90s games got ruined by an N64 Zelda game as well. The voters will vote for their 90s Nintendo/Square stuff and will not be denied! --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
This is why Undertale is happening --- Goddamn Ocarina of Time |
Losing
to L-Block and Draven was tolerable. As long as LOZ doesn't lose to a
non-joke/outside force, non-Nintendo/Square entity! Besides, Undertale is the game we've been waiting for all these years- a new game that can challenge OOT and FFVII! --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. (edited 12/5/2015 8:29:55 PM)report |
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2102-gear-division-round-2-solid-snake-vs-zelda --- Goddamn Ocarina of Time |
Does anyone have URLs for the round 3 match pics from Pokemon vs. Sonic 2 onwards? --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r3/35.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r3/38.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r3/43.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r3/47.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r3/49.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r3/53.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r3/57.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r3/61.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r3/65.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r3/71.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r3/74.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r3/79.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r3/81.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r3/87.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r3/89.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r3/95.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r3/100.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r3/104.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r3/107.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r3/111.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r3/113.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r3/117.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r3/121.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r3/127.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r4/1.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r4/9.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r4/17.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/bge20/r4/31.jpg --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! Future 2015 Guru Contest winner. |
Thanks man! --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Prepare for ME2 to embrass itself And for SOTC to be really close to MGS And then people will wonder how it's possible And it is, why? because ME2 is the f***ing worst I have ever seen Like, I know now what it's supposed to be because Leon(I think) told me But having played the game (not the DLC) and not knowing it's Mass Effect 2 at all is eh... --- 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 (edited 12/5/2015 8:57:03 PM)report |
Goodnight sweet bracket. --- XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak PSN ID - Kudaark Steam Name : skaalfa |
C'mon MGS! Shake off this bad board vote you've had every match for some reason and rise to heaven! --- Goddamn Ocarina of Time |
Tried to vote for SotC and ME2 and the site is giving me that "already voted" thing bacon confirmed to be fixing the match for mgs --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? |
MGS3 cruising, MGS not. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
and lmfao Mass Effect 2 pic factor (okay realistically it's more MGS3's crazy early vote) --- Goddamn Ocarina of Time |
ME2's board vote is always crazy bad. --- BGE3: Today's Matches MGS > SotC, MGS3 > ME2 Points 155/184 |
B8 has a hard-on for MGS3 and the opposite for ME2 give it time --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
LOL Destiny --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! Future 2015 Guru Contest winner. |
Remember that MGS3 was at 61% at the freeze against BioShock last round --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
impressive from SOTC so far feel like it should be a board vote kind of game, but still! --- xyzzy |
Well, I thought MGS1 was starting to pull away, but it's just stalling again at a slightly higher number. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
MGS1 why --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Not liking MGS right now. --- BGE3: Today's Matches MGS > SotC, MGS3 > ME2 Points 155/184 |
I really don't understand how ME2 can lose to a f***ing Metal Gear game. --- XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak PSN ID - Kudaark Steam Name : skaalfa |
mgs3
looks p. good. yeah Bioshock was at this early but ME2 ain't Bioshock. a
lot of people on the board love ME2. Bioshock? not so much. --- xyzzy |
SotC
has every advantage it could ever ask for in this match. I don't think
it's a particularly strong game even if it ends up pulling the upset
(not that that would reflect any better on MGS1, but oh well!). --- Goddamn Ocarina of Time |
looking forward to those five minute xstats --- xyzzy |
