LeonhartFour posted...
did the first Bayonetta come with the second game


Considering how similiar they are, I'm going to snarkily say yes.

But what I mean is, the people who liked Bayonetta on PS360 were still more likely to throw their weight behind Bayonetta 2 than RDR, especially given Bayonetta's cult appeal (you know, the same thing Earthbound used to kill Borderlands)
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Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses
EarthBound used being more popular to beat Borderlands, actually.

What if people who liked Bayonetta also liked Red Dead Redemption and voted for the game they liked and have played over the game they've never played?

Bayonetta 2 is going to be appreciably weaker than the original, and Bayonetta 1 wouldn't be anything special here.
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LeonhartFour posted...
EarthBound used being more popular to beat Borderlands, actually.


Cult appeal translates to popularity, especially with low vote totals allowing these sorts of fans to impose their will into the poll.

And I'm not arguing that Bayonetta was supposed to take RDR, I'm arguing that it could keep a match with Borderlands extremely close. And like I noted, 59%-64% between RDR and Earthbound's wins allow for some wiggle room.
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Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses
RDR beating Borderlands 2 is fine.

RDR beating EarthBound I don't buy and that's SOTC's problem.
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
Well, we're going to have to agree to disagree until tomorrow, then.

Honestly, I just want to see Shadow of the Colossus to make this upset, if only to have a fitting epilogue to its GotD run.
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Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses
MGS1 losing to SOTC would be a major bomb for MGS1, no matter how you look at it. That would basically mean it's no stronger than its brethren, and there was no reason to believe that prior to this contest.
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LeonhartFour posted...

RDR beating EarthBound I don't buy and that's SOTC's problem.


I totally agree with this.
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satoru iwata
LeonhartFour posted...
That would basically mean it's no stronger than its brethren, and there was no reason to believe that prior to this contest.


That's assuming its brethern have stayed constant, and I think the universal sentiment surrounding that it is a resounding no.
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Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses
MechanicalWall posted...
That's assuming its brethern have stayed constant, and I think the universal sentiment surrounding that it is a resounding no.


Meh, MGS's fall from grace has been massively overstated. MGS2 is looking just fine today, for instance. If people wanted to bash MGS1 for quadrupling a total unknown, then whatever. 60%+ on a revitalized EarthBound is a fine performance. MGS4's loss to KH2 doesn't look as bad as it initially did after KH2 threw up 45% on Melee. The only performance I'd categorize as downright bad was MGS3/BioShock, and there are at least explanations you can come up with for why MGS3 did so badly.
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Still, putting MGS1 only slightly higher than 2010 MGS3 isn't all that unreasonable, and the argument could be made that SotC would've won that match if it were 24 hours, or a day match. And considering that the HD remaster of SotC sold better than the PS2 original, and there's reason to believe that SotC has stayed constant, or is even better now.
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Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses
do you know how many times the MGS games have been re-released and ported in the last 5 years

Putting it only slightly higher than MGS3 isn't unreasonable if you thought MGS3 had a good shot at beating MGS1, sure.
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there's a weird amount of faith in SOTC here. I don't think this match is close. go ahead and quote me if I'm wrong.
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
Well, SOTC's Cinderella run was the most memorable part of GOTD and that sticks out in everyone's minds.

It's like how people still think Starcraft has massive rally power and is more popular than it really is even though that was 11 years ago and some of that was blatant cheating!
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(edited 12/5/2015 4:10:56 PM)report
LeonhartFour posted...
do you know how many times the MGS games have been re-released and ported in the last 5 years

Putting it only slightly higher than MGS3 isn't unreasonable if you thought MGS3 had a good shot at beating MGS1, sure.


None of those rereleases sold anywhere even kind of close to the originals though, and couldn't hope to have the same impact as an HD remaster selling as well or better than the original; that counts as a revitalization in my eyes. Especially since SotC's naysayers often flocked around the PS2 game's terrible framerate, which was fixed in the remaster.
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Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses
I think SOTC could make noises, but as we all know my broke record says, I also think pic factor matters more than most (though maybe not most judging by the last few days and glorious ZPF).

I think that match is 55%+ for MGS1 with even pics though so unless SotC catches a rally (...from where?) I'll stick with it.
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Goddamn Ocarina of Time
I would imagine a lot of people who bought the remaster also bought the original (like me). HD releases aren't really targeted at a new audience. Obviously it's not all second time buyers, but I'd wager a significant chunk of those sales are.
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Like, I had a lot of faith in ME2 before the pictures came out and now I don't even think it hardly has a shot.

e: Well, two MGS games in the poll might be able to help it out. A shame we can't gauge that effect's potential total impact.
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Goddamn Ocarina of Time
(edited 12/5/2015 4:20:59 PM)report
I'm sure there were plenty of double dippers, but the thing about Shadow of the Colossus (and ICO) was that the PS2 game was out of print for a long time, meaning that the HD release was going to be especially tempting to newcomers who couldn't justify putting down a bunch of money on a 6 year old PS2 game. That's why the remaster doing so well means good things for SotC's exposure.
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Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses
Pic factor gets exaggerated around here at times.

It would have to be blatant sabotage (like Turk Vincent, Solid ****, etc.) for it to truly matter.

OOT's picture was fine, and so is ME2's. They aren't amazing, but they aren't amazingly bad either.
Turk Vincent was maybe the most obnoxious pic factor we've ever had. Blatant sabotage with nothing done about it, and the worst part is Mewtwo was 99.9% strong enough to beat him anyway (he beat Sephiroth later after all). Doesn't change the result, but it sucked that I called the Mewtwo > Vincent upset lonnnnnnng in advance and the feeling of vindication was ruined by the controversy. Plus, I would have liked to see if Wrighto could've given Vincent a fight with a fair pic!

Fortunately nothing this contest has even remotely compared to that debacle.
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Goddamn Ocarina of Time
The fact that Snake and Vincent were so clearly hurt by those pics makes me wonder how Resident Evil actually managed to beat Street Fighter in the series contest with this absolute nightmare of a pic.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/bse2k6/bse24.jpg
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Agent Triple Zero at your service!
Future 2015 Guru Contest winner.
clearly Allen doesn't believe in pic factor or he wouldn't choose stuff like that and Smilin' Squall
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_SecretSquirrel posted...
The fact that Snake and Vincent were so clearly hurt by those pics makes me wonder how Resident Evil actually managed to beat Street Fighter in the series contest with this absolute nightmare of a pic.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/bse2k6/bse24.jpg


It just means that in a fair match, RE would have beaten SF much more easily.
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Smilin Squall isn't really an unfair pic. It's just Squall, smiling. It looks goofy as f*** but that's Squall's fault for being so dour all the time that him smiling actually looks out of place!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
You wanna talk about being potentially robbed out of a real match? Remember this...? : http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb8/cb8-108.jpg

Reminder: Leon put up 43% on Ryu with that picture.
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Goddamn Ocarina of Time
I suppose there isn't much of a pic advantage for this one since they both look like ass, but man did the sprite round just absolutely kill some pictures.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/bse2k6/bse19.jpg
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Agent Triple Zero at your service!
Future 2015 Guru Contest winner.
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb7/cb7-43.jpg

That particular screencap is a bad pic. Plus, Allen for some reason mirror flipped the image and made it look even goofier.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb8/cb8-110.jpg

The one in the background here is fine.
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(edited 12/5/2015 5:32:00 PM)report
I have never - never - failed to audibly laugh when confronted with a picture of Smilin' Squall.
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Goddamn Ocarina of Time
SMRPG held up a lot better today. It lost 5.47% from the end of the first hour to the final result against Oblivion and 3.21% against GTAV (That number gets even bigger if you factor in the freeze, of course).

It's looking to be "only" about 2% today by the time everything's said and done.

AMERICA
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So, the poll is going to look like:

Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs. Symphony of the Night
Zelda: A Link to the Past vs. Zelda: Majora's Mask

I'm calling an OOT underperformance ahead of time, so people don't say it's after the fact rationalization afterward! And if OOT performs as it normally would we'll call that an impressive showing of dominance.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.
MGS1 gonna 55-45 SOTC. Quote me if I'm wrong.

MGS is more easy to rally as well.

Lastly, I don't think this "same franchise" factor is going to come into play here. I think if it exists, it only harms series that are dominant here (Zelda, FF). It's like, everyone knows and complains these games never lose, then they come up twice in the same day and that's the tipping point. I don't think MGS will suffer from it.
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http://www.last.fm/user/VinnyMendoza
"This is all we have... when we die.."
But Snake always wins
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
MGS has made the final more recently than Zelda or FF.

Gotta premptively vote against the MGS dominance.
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Any sound can shake the air. My voice shakes the heart!
-Sho Minamimoto
red sox 777 posted...
So, the poll is going to look like:

Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs. Symphony of the Night
Zelda: A Link to the Past vs. Zelda: Majora's Mask

I'm calling an OOT underperformance ahead of time, so people don't say it's after the fact rationalization afterward! And if OOT performs as it normally would we'll call that an impressive showing of dominance.


it's still an excuse whether it's made ahead of time or after the fact

Also OoT/SOTN will probably be the best chance to gauge the effect of multiple games from the same series in the same poll. Based on their performances on T&T, FFIX and SOTN should be relatively close in strength. If OoT does even worse against SOTN, we might be able to measure some sort of effect, although this would be the extreme case of three Zelda games and one non-Zelda game.

yoblazer was a big believer in Standout Factor in 4-ways, so maybe that'll happen again here.
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That day is going to have massive tumblr spillover. If Symphony of the Night can actually beat FFIX's performance even despite that, I'd start taking Link to the Past > Ocarina seriously.
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
Then everyone's going to end up saying that tumblr just favors SotN more. Somehow. Gotta make OoT look good for as long as possible.
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Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses
Karma Hunter posted...
I have never - never - failed to audibly laugh when confronted with a picture of Smilin' Squall.


The best.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/rivals/rivals-60-1.jpg
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Agent Triple Zero at your service!
Future 2015 Guru Contest winner.
it's still an excuse whether it's made ahead of time or after the fact

Also OoT/SOTN will probably be the best chance to gauge the effect of multiple games from the same series in the same poll. Based on their performances on T&T, FFIX and SOTN should be relatively close in strength. If OoT does even worse against SOTN, we might be able to measure some sort of effect, although this would be the extreme case of three Zelda games and one non-Zelda game.

yoblazer was a big believer in Standout Factor in 4-ways, so maybe that'll happen again here.


But, SOTN got only 33% against Mario 64 in 2009, with another Nintendo game in the poll, and then 26%(!) in round 2. In that match, 2009 Chrono Trigger broke 72% on SOTN. SOTN has had a wide range of performances so I'm not sure how to evaluate this match.......but if it really comes in at 35% on OOT, those 2009 comparisons are going to look really really good for CT.

And, it's difficult for me to imagine Standout Factor having a bigger impact here than that picture last round, even if it was only horrible on mobile phones. That mobile pic was an truly awful, bottom tier, picture.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.
i think Seifer is my favorite in that one
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http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
LongLiveraytan
Also, rally spillover should be expected to favor Zelda- it's supposed to be the 2nd most popular video game series over there behind Pokemon.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.
No lie MGS's pic is worse than OoT's was come at me ZPFers
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Goddamn Ocarina of Time
_SecretSquirrel posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
I have never - never - failed to audibly laugh when confronted with a picture of Smilin' Squall.


The best.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/rivals/rivals-60-1.jpg


Lolol I had completely forgot about this
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Every day the rest of your life is changed forever.
Where are the upcoming match pics?
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.
Might as well have cut the filler in the FFVII pic and just had Cloud and Seph looking cool side-to-side.
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Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses
Karma Hunter posted...
No lie MGS's pic is worse than OoT's was come at me ZPFers


I'm actually maybe with you on this one... I think it's a cool pic because I'm a fan but people might not be able to see the SOLID underneath and think maybe it's just Metal Gear (NES) with some random soldier guy in the pic. At least OOT's pic still had a giant shot of Link in the middle of it lol.
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http://www.last.fm/user/VinnyMendoza
"This is all we have... when we die.."
DaruniaTheGoron posted...
maybe it's just Metal Gear (NES) with some random soldier guy in the pic


SotC confirmed for a quadrupling.
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Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses
I think that MGS picture looks really cool. On the other hand, "Solid" is barely visible and I'm guessing will be completely invisible on mobile, making this quite a bad picture overall.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.
Yeah I like it but it doesn't bring out the true strength of MGS1 the way a clear picture of Snake could.
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http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
LongLiveraytan

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