GameFAQs Contests

Paper Mario 1 should be the weakest of the three!

I mean, it probably isn't, but it should be!

I'd say the gap between PM and TTYD is smaller than the gap from them to SMRPG though.

Although looking at it, TTYD didn't finish that far behind Paper Mario in the X-Stats, and that's with the potential for MM/WW SFF, so maybe Paper Mario is the weakest!
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MGS2 previously went up against games with nonexistent early votes and was the heavy bracket favorite. Completely different scenario here. The Europe vote should be kind to it.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Yeah, MGS2 has Europe to look forward to. SMRPG.....Europe has its knives out, waiting. It's been slow to fall tonight but the inevitable freefall is coming, in not too much more time.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.

LeonhartFour posted...

Paper Mario 1 should be the weakest of the three!

I mean, it probably isn't, but it should be!

I'd say the gap between PM and TTYD is smaller than the gap from them to SMRPG though.

That goes without saying. SMRPG is looking to be several orders of magnitude above them - if it goes even with RE4, then it gets like 59% on PM1. And it might win.

PM2 might actually be stronger than PM1, based on results. Although I think it's a lot more sensible that PM1 is slightly stronger just based on being the first in the series and such.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Well, I'm just talking about relative to its final percentage.

MGS and RE have pretty similar trends, so I don't know if I really expect a ton of percentage shift from here. MGS2 might be able to get above 45%~ or so with the night vote, but I doubt it moves too much once we get past there.
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I hate saying this, but I think SMRPG is going to end up pretty close to what it has now by the end of the match. Chrono Chross is not the game to take advantage of Europe, and it has the day vote to recover afterwards.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

red sox 777 posted...

Yeah, MGS2 has Europe to look forward to. SMRPG.....Europe has its knives out, waiting. It's been slow to fall tonight but the inevitable freefall is coming, in not too much more time.

Europe has its knives out, waiting.

And then it sees a game with "Chrono" in the title and says LOL no and votes for MGS2 instead
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I think MGS2 ends this match with 46%. A bomb by most people's standards but it's pretty much in line with things.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

KamikazePotato posted...

I hate saying this, but I think SMRPG is going to end up pretty close to what it has now by the end of the match. Chrono Chross is not the game to take advantage of Europe, and it has the day vote to recover afterwards.

Yeah, I don't expect CC to get this below 60% at this point. SMRPG is at 55% in the UK now, 65% in America, and 68% in Canada.
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I'm shocked Europe isn't at 0% for both Cross and SMRPG.
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Agent Triple Zero at your service!
Future 2015 Guru Contest winner.

Also, even with this result, I still think I'd take CC > GTAV. This is just one of those weird situations where SMRPG has the ideal opponent. Not having a European release is a serious hindrance to your strength, especially with these lower vote totals. Not sure what percentage of the vote Europe makes up anymore, but it's not small. I'd hesitate to call it SFF or anything, but I'd still call it an overperformance.

It's also why I still give RE4 a chance, even though it's getting 55/45'd in the UK by MGS2 now. That disparity will be back next round.
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LeonhartFour posted...

Also, even with this result, I still think I'd take CC > GTAV. This is just one of those weird situations where SMRPG has the ideal opponent. Not having a European release is a serious hindrance to your strength, especially with these lower vote totals. Not sure what percentage of the vote Europe makes up anymore, but it's not small. I'd hesitate to call it SFF or anything, but I'd still call it an overperformance.

It's also why I still give RE4 a chance, even though it's getting 55/45'd in the UK by MGS2 now. That disparity will be back next round.

I am never taking WoW or GTA in anything remotely debatable again.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest
"F*** Draven." -SBAllen

Well, that was my policy coming into this contest, and it paid off!
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Based on SMRPG/GTA V, SMRPG wins with 60.10%.
Based on SMRPG/Oblivion, SMRPG wins with 58.54%.

CC lost about 1% to San Andreas from this point on to the end, while SMRPG lost 2% to GTA V. I'd guess SMRPG will plummet under 59% overnight, and recover to finish ahead of 60% tomorrow with the day vote.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.

SMRPG isn't plummeting. It had already lost significant percentage from the freeze and even the first hour at this point.

Those projections are meaningless because GTA5 got 65% on SMRPG in the UK and Oblivion got nearly 70%. That disparity cannot be ignored. CC is outright losing to SMRPG in the UK right now, so that massive dive isn't happening.
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By the way, found my pre-contest stats where I saved all the My Games data. This is relevant:

Pre-Contest Undertale (PC, MAC): 215 total votes (Owned by 244 users)
Current Undertale (PC, MAC): 649 total votes (Owned by 723 users)

That's a huge ownership spike. Here's some comparisons:

Pre-Contest Bayonetta 2: 817 total votes (Owned by 1486 users)
Current Bayonetta 2: 849 total votes (Owned by 1549 users)

Pre-Contest Super Mario Maker: 755 total votes (Owned by 1039 users)
Current Super Mario Maker: 900 total votes (Owned by 1259 users)

Pre-Contest The Witcher 3 (PC, MAC, PS4, XONE): 2688 total votes (Owned by 3459 users)
Current The Witcher 2 (PC, MAC, PS3, XONE): 2885 total votes (Owned by 3789)
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Also, RE4 has mostly stabilized now, so I don't think MGS2 is going to be getting to 46%. RE4 is actually starting to go up a bit now.
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Those projections are meaningless because GTA5 got 65% on SMRPG in the UK and Oblivion got nearly 70%. That disparity cannot be ignored. CC is outright losing to SMRPG in the UK right now, so that massive dive isn't happening.

SMRPG is still 10% lower in the UK than in the US, and it is losing, in some countries by big margins, across the European continent. Also, it's only 7:30 AM in the UK right now, that number is still very very volatile.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.

It's still volatile, but it's not jumping up to a 2:1 advantage for Chrono Cross. UK makes up enough of the Euro vote that if SMRPG is still winning there, it won't completely tank.
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The movement of the percentages during the first 3 hours has very little to do with Europe, which goes from a miniscule share of the vote to a very small share. Even in the 2-3 hour, Europe has a much smaller share of the votes than it will have again until late in the afternoon. The trend shifts so far are mostly to do with trends inside North America. After 3 AM is when we start seeing geolocation trends get more traction.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.

SMRPG is dominating North America by a much bigger margin than it currently possesses, so I don't think you can say Europe is having very little to do with this.

It's certainly not going to bottom out as hard as it did the last two rounds because Chrono Cross has no European presence to take advantage of.
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LeonhartFour posted...

Also, even with this result, I still think I'd take CC > GTAV. This is just one of those weird situations where SMRPG has the ideal opponent. Not having a European release is a serious hindrance to your strength, especially with these lower vote totals. Not sure what percentage of the vote Europe makes up anymore, but it's not small. I'd hesitate to call it SFF or anything, but I'd still call it an overperformance.

It's also why I still give RE4 a chance, even though it's getting 55/45'd in the UK by MGS2 now. That disparity will be back next round.

Lack of Europe presence sort of goes both ways, though. Your opponent may not be able to take advantage of your weakness in Europe because they are also weak in Europe but at the same time you can't take advantage of your opponent's weakness in Europe either.
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No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585.
Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest!

Unfortunately every stat metric I tried has SMRPG barely defeating RE4 (and believe me I tried a bunch augh), so this might not end up being an overperformance at all.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Lack of Europe presence sort of goes both ways, though. Your opponent may not be able to take advantage of your weakness in Europe because they are also weak in Europe but at the same time you can't take advantage of your opponent's weakness in Europe either.

Yeah, but SMRPG's Euro vote was so bad the last two rounds that I think having a game with no European presence will wind up being a net positive, as odd as it sounds.

It'll probably have a more diluted day vote as a result, so maybe it'll balance out in the end.
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Regardless of how nice Super Mario RPGS is looking, I don't think the opponents it's had are anything special and RE4 takes it comfortably next round. I don't know what sort of play rate it has but it's such a strongly respected game I think it benefits similar to Metroid.
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My butt was devastated by raytan.
3DS FC: 4725-7987-5535

53.8% update for SMRPG.

Is that Europe on the horizon...?
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Somewhat off topic here, but what's the Konami Pachinko stuff worth? I know they made a ton of money off it, but google isn't helping me on this one.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest
"F*** Draven." -SBAllen

SMRPG has gone sub-100 votes an update for the first time across the last three updates, so yeah, we're probably going to start seeing some decent updates for CC for a while.

Still don't think it can get this below 60% at any point, but we'll see.
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Huh, why is everyone sayiing RE4 is bombing? It's doing what the people in the Oracle Challenge expected.

To me RE4 still is bombing, though. RE4 is expected to get 61.47% on RE1. MGS3 is projected to get to exactly 63% on Silent Hill 2. I never would have thought SH would beat anywhere near RE.

I wouldn't be too certain RE4 is weaker than it used to be. If SMRPG pulls the upset, it's probably going to have to rely on its own strength. If SMRPG doesn't fall too much from here maybe it could....just maybe....
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

I dunno. A lot of people have had this weird expectation that RE4 is stronger than it really is, I guess because of its reputation. I suppose it's a testament to its quality that a game like that is as strong as it is on a site like this, but it's in the upper midcard tier, not the elite tier like some people might think it is.

Makes for a really good showing for Witcher 3, too. That game probably runs away with GOTY.

Undertale, best game ever but not best game of 2015 here we come
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I'm fairly confident it will cross below 60%, and end up above 60%- maybe even 61%.

I checked the Guru for the first time all contest, and it turns out.....my bracket is riding on SMRPG. I need my SMRPG > RE4 upset to work, and I need either SMRPG or Mass Effect 2 to win the next round as well to cover my bad Starcraft upset pick.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.

I view RE4 as basically where games start being considered elite games in this thing. If you can beat RE4, you're at least a lower elite game.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

CC cuts SMRPG and MGS2 cuts RE4 as Europe wakes up.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

The good news is there's only one person who took CT > OOT in the final, and I can beat him on points if everything goes right even if CT wins the final. In the unlikely event that all this goes right, I won't be conflicted between CT and the Guru. Of course, the sitewide contest may be another story, but ultimately, if that situation were to arise, I guess it's not really that hard. CT winning a contest >>>>> $2,000 in gift cards.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.

darn you Europe start busting out those emulators
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In fact, it's been a while since we did some tier lists!

God Tier:
Chrono Trigger
Ocarina of Time

Upper Elite Tier:
Final Fantasy VII
Pokemon RBY
Super Mario Bros. 3
Super Mario 64
Super Mario World
A Link to the Past

Mid Elite Tier:
Majora's Mask
Super Smash Bros. Melee
Super Metroid
Wind Waker
Twilight Princess
Final Fantasy VI
Metroid Prime
Skyrim
Fallout 3

Lower Elite Tier:
Final Fantasy X
Kingdom Hearts II
Kingdom Hearts
Final Fantasy IX
Resident Evil 4
Pokemon GSC
Final Fantasy VIII
Goldeneye 007
Super Mario RPG
Castlevania: SotN
Metal Gear Solid
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Cut #2 achieved.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.

Come on, SMRPG...Chrono Cross wasn't even released in Europe. That was almost 3 cuts.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Top Tier

Ocarina of Time
Chrono Trigger

Elite Tier

Final Fantasy VII
A Link to the Past

High Tier

Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow
Super Mario 64
Super Mario World
Super Mario Bros. 3

Upper Tier

Final Fantasy VI
Super Smash Bros. Melee
Super Mario Bros.
Majora's Mask
Final Fantasy X
Super Metroid
Metal Gear Solid
The Legend of Zelda
The Wind Waker
Final Fantasy IX
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.

I don't take Fallout 3 over FFIX, FFX, or either KH game. I'm not sure I take Prime or Skyrim over them either.

At the very least, they're not on separate tiers. That seems crazy to me, Fallout 3 especially.
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Fallout 3 would've beaten FF9, KH1, Metroid Prime, and KH2 in GotD. It's a strong game!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

I don't think so.

I think it got pretty overrated by that Brawl match. I don't think Prime beats either Kingdom Hearts game in GOTD or now. They definitely wouldn't have beaten FFX. Say what you want about "it beat Prime," but essentially being able to beat HL2 with 52% isn't an elite performance.

It's a very good performance, but not an elite one.
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LeonhartFour posted...

The idea of a bunch of games being within striking range of FFVII seems odd to me. We originally thought it was just a handful that had a shot, but FFVI beating it would mean a lot of games could.

I guess we'll see!

I don't agree with this, I think that FFVI can beat it, and other games that can beat FFVI can not
It sounds strange, but

I have a feeling that FF6 vs FF7 is going to turn into Final Fantasy(without FF7) vs FF7. FF7 has stolen so much of the limelight over the years that I cant imagine fans of other games in the series or neutrals coming to the match backing FF7

This is what I am thinking as well
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3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3477-division-8-round-1-fallout-3-halo-3-left-4-dead-mass-effect
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3493-division-8-round-2-mgs4-portal-fallout-3-halo-3
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3501-division-8-final-ssbb-cod-4-mgs4-fallout-3
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4165-north-division-round-3-fallout-3-vs-batman-arkham-asylum
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4181-north-division-final-fallout-3-vs-halo-combat-evolved

I mean, say what you want, but none of those are elite performances. Certainly not something I couldn't see FFX or KH match.

Fallout 3 is more in the RE4 tier of "very strong but not elite," I think.
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Projecting Fallout 3 vs. LTTP through Deus Ex gives it 40.59% against LTTP. Maybe move it down to Lower Elite tier, but it's certainly got a lot of strength.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

God Tier:
Undertale
Ocarina of Time

Upper Elite Tier:
Final Fantasy VII
Chrono Trigger
Pokemon RBY
A Link to the Past
Super Mario 64

Mid Elite Tier:
Super Mario Bros. 3
Super Mario World
Majora's Mask
Super Smash Bros. Melee
Super Metroid
Wind Waker
Twilight Princess
Final Fantasy VI
Metroid Prime
Skyrim
Fallout 3

Lower Elite Tier:
Final Fantasy X
Kingdom Hearts II
Kingdom Hearts
Final Fantasy IX
Resident Evil 4
Pokemon GSC
Final Fantasy VIII
Goldeneye 007
Super Mario RPG
Castlevania: SotN
Metal Gear Solid
Metal Gear Solid 3
Shadow of the Colossus
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Formerly known as Dilated Chemist

Fallout 3 looked off in 4-ways, yeah, but it definitely improved afterwards. Arkham Asylum and Halo were legit that year so I don't really see the point in holding those results against it.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Well, we'll never get to find out this year because of Undertale, but I've always been skeptical about how strong FO3 really was.

also projecting Fallout 3 vs. FFVII through Halo gives it 27.65% against FFVII. Using 2009 Deus Ex puts it well below MGS1, so who knows.

That Batman performance looks less impressive after watching MMX 60/40 Batman, too.
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SwiftyDC posted...

God Tier:
Undertale
Ocarina of Time

Upper Elite Tier:
Final Fantasy VII
Chrono Trigger
Pokemon RBY
A Link to the Past
Super Mario 64

I really would put CT and RBY up a tier and knock Ocarina down one.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest
"F*** Draven." -SBAllen

I think Batman and Halo are definitely weaker than they were before. Time marches on, non-RPG games on GameFAQs fade away.

2010 they were definitely fine. Halo had just came off a perfectly normal 4-way performance too.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.