GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1234
http://33.media.tumblr.com/796cfd97b0b41afefe63a6a5815b362a/tumblr_inline_n4jiwnbI541rtulta.gif ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- xyzzy (edited 12/4/2015 3:36:42 PM)report |
Blah Super Metroid. --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Raytan > Me |
Oh, my Wind Waker quote still IS in the first post. Someone inserted it in the middle of all the links. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
ha, fixed I just actually read the first post for the first time in years. when did I get namedropped in there? weird --- xyzzy |
The darkness comes to claim Metroid's soul. --- Hello, I'm Chris! https://media.giphy.com/media/2ZtIpjwFFjLHLNREpCU/giphy.gif |
I think you were also in hochi's league of excellence before that was removed. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
MM winning after all damn --- ... |
I'm sure people already mentioned these two things repeatedly, but.... Maybe Super Metroid is doing so well because some voters didn't want to vote for two Zelda games. Then again, you think Zelda:LttP would likewise suffer, but it's doing dang well with 70% on Dark Souls. And, Super Metroid would probably be winning right now if it wasn't for tumblr bringing hundreds ( thousands?) of tumblr voters over to the contest permanently. Aaaggh, curse you! --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
Still
catching up on the last topic, but here's a super late update (due to
me waking up at 2:30pm) of the lead changes/tie stats for this match! Lead changes: 16 Ties: 4 --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
When
did we start seeing increased actual trends, anyway? Was it after
Undertale R1 or R2 possibly? If some of the rallied people stuck around
they'd be more likely to still be in school and possibly contribute to
an actual ASV etc. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Trends
have always been there. They're much more diluted, but to say they're
completely nonexistent is inaccurate. You won't see massive vote swings
very often anymore, but percentage shifts depending on time of day still
exist. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif (edited 12/4/2015 4:22:06 PM)report |
Also,
that ME2 pic is pretty bad, especially compared to MGS3's. MGS3 has a
closeup of Big Boss and The Boss with the flower field in the
background. ME2's is a shot of Shepard from behind and a hologram of
Harbinger. It's no contest. The rest of the pics are good. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Possible..... maybe a fight, Majoras Mask vs A link to the past is not so hard, like Metroid vs link to the past...... Super Metroid is such an awesome game much better than Majoras Mask...... very very very pity, but nothing we can do. The players have decided...... "You did a great job Samus Aran! " Super Metroid is and will always be one of the best games ever created! |
Haste_2 posted... And, Super Metroid would probably be winning right now if it wasn't for tumblr bringing hundreds ( thousands?) of tumblr voters over to the contest permanently. Aaaggh, curse you! I dunno. GOTD X-Stats predicted this match pretty well through Dragon Age! Granted, it had Super Metroid barely winning instead of barely losing, but variance happens! Majora's Mask has fallen pretty well in line with expectations in all of its matches. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
There's going to be no Seph in FFVII's mobile pic. Going to be embarrassed but not lose imo. Don't really like MGS1's pic, but I don't think it's in danger. SMRPG going to crush What's with CT's match pics and spoilers? Thank god for the pic advantage MGS3's getting. Hope it's enough! --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Is there going to be anything but brown in the mobile SotC picture? --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! Future 2015 Guru Contest winner. |
Yeah,
I was wondering how Dragon Age would project things. For what it's
worth, Majora's Mask underperformed by about a percent against both VC
and FFXII. Take today's result and Majora's Mask seems to be a little
bit weaker than in GotD, If Mario Galaxy really is stronger this contest than the last contest.... nooo, please don't be! It'll ruin FF6's chances even more! (even if SMG2 is weaker than SMG1) --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
ASV almost over. Now, the long, slow, fade from the ASV into the SNV that slowly takes place over the next 3 hours. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
MM officially taking the biggest lead in the match so far. Yup... --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
I
do think there may be something to this
multiple-same-series-entrant-multipoll-deboost thing (someone come up
with a good name for this). I thought it sounded stupid, but it would
help explain a lot of underperformances: FFVI FFVII SMB3 (?, !!) MM (possibly not an underperformance depending how strong SM is) MGS MGS3 Things going against this are the GTAs (second day) and Earthbound/Mother 2; it also doesn't seem to do anything against fodder. Probably just an excuse, but maybe there's something there? --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
It
makes sense that there would be a slight negative effect. If OOT
disappoints against SOTN with 3 Zelda games in that day's matches,
people will say it is another excuse for OOT. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. (edited 12/4/2015 5:02:44 PM)report |
Valid excuses are still excuses! --- Goddamn Ocarina of Time |
I
think it could have somewhat of a factor. At least that's one of the
things that I came up with when I was going crazy trying to predict from
every angle who would win the Skyrim/Metroid Prime match right before
it happened. Even though it was a separate match going on with SM64/TP, I
thought maybe Nintendo overload could influence people on the fence to
vote for Skyrim. Now, I have no idea if/how much of an impact it had in retrospect, it's just one of many things I tried to take into consideration. Not all were necessarily logical or sane. But hey, in the end, I went with Skyrim! --- NEW YORK METS - 2015 National League Champions (edited 12/4/2015 5:09:26 PM)report |
Ahhh yeeeeah. MGS2 gonna overperform against RE4. MGS gonna slay the colossus dark horse. MGS3 gonna reestablish it's place as one of the greatest games ever. --- Formerly known as Dilated Chemist |
Honestly,
whenever I see too many games of the same series in successive matches,
I feel less and less inclined to vote for the same series again. Same
series fatigue, if you will. It happened a lot last character contest with the Pokémon characters, and this contest since Bacon arranged it so big series would clash against one another, it's happening again. --- .-#Elements of Water#-. |
I
could maybe buy 3 games of the same series causing some wonkiness, if
it happens, but none of the 2 series in the same poll matches have
caused any weird results. Like, for example: as much as people say FF6's result was a disappointment, it was exactly the result we should've expected from their Round 2 matches. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
I
think it'd have more of an effect if it's on successive days rather
than in the same match. I can't really explain it, but I get that "ugh,
again?" feeling. Not saying this happens on a relevant enough scale for it to have any impact, but y'know, just throwing it out there. --- .-#Elements of Water#-. |
It might have a tiny effect among voters who are on the fence. But overall shouldn't affect things too much. --- http://www.last.fm/user/VinnyMendoza "This is all we have... when we die.." |
Surskit posted... Same series fatigue, if you will. That's actually a pretty good name. SSF is pretty close to SFF, though! --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Not
like it needs a term since it's not very relevant, but uh... SSE (Same
series exhaustion)? It also has the same acronym as Subspace Emissary,
which is like the definition of exhausting. --- .-#Elements of Water#-. |
I liked Subspace Emissary :( It was like a Kirby game! --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Subspace Emissary was a fun one time thing. I'd never want to do it again though. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Link to the Past vs. Majora's Mask will be the death of me. My 2 favorite Zelda games going head-to-head. :( --- Team Gracidea - We live to love! Proud fan of all that is Shaymin! (Official Riku of KHIII board) |
SSE was fun until the maze, it was just too long. --- BGE3: Today's Matches LoZ: LttP > MGSV, LoZ: MM > SMG Points 139/168 |
ROUND 3 – DAY 7 – ALL OF DIVISION 7 Match CIX: (9) Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars vs. (13) Chrono Cross Previous Rounds Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars 54.43% against The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion 57.20% against Grand Theft Auto V Chrono Cross 58.06% against World of Warcraft 54.81% against Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas Analysis Both Grand Theft Auto games managed to look respectable last round, but neither were really in the match and only looked so well due to trends. There’s a lot of hype surrounding Chrono Cross’s chance in this match and possibly beyond. Pre-contest I would take Grand Theft Auto V over San Andreas in a close match, the game was almost everything that made the series great and it was a step-up from what Grand Theft Auto IV did. Of course after watching all of the newer games flop there is a sense that San Andreas could be stronger as a only on GameFAQs type of thing. If true this gives Chrono Cross a very good chance at the upset. I still think it would be weird to see San Andreas being the stronger game plus SNES games have been performing really well in this contest and I feel Super Mario RPG’s performance on Oblivion is enough to reach the division finals. charmander6000’s Bracket: Super Mario RPG > Chrono Cross charmander6000’s Prediction: Super Mario RPG wins, 53.11% - 46.89% Match CX: (6) Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty vs. (2) Resident Evil 4 Previous Rounds Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty 56.76% against Resident Evil 54.21% against The Witcher 3 Resident Evil 4 58.87% against Paper Mario 58.11% against Fallout: New Vegas Analysis I think most people on this board wouldn’t have gotten New Vegas > Paper Mario correct. I know a lot of people were down on Resident Evil 4’s performance last round, but we had no information on New Vegas or BioShock Infinite and besides its performance against Paper Mario still makes it a strong game. Metal Gear Solid 2 has easily proven that it is not as strong as 2010 Metal Gear Solid 3 and since Resident Evil 4 is at around that strength it should be a relatively easy win. Of course this is not to say Metal Gear Solid 2 is weak. It got 37% on Final Fantasy X in 2009 which essentially predicts the game to get around the low to mid-40s in this match. charmander6000’s Bracket: Resident Evil 4 > Metal Gear Solid 2 charmander6000’s Prediction: Resident Evil 4 wins, 57.67% - 42.33% --- BGE3: Today's Matches LoZ: LttP > MGSV, LoZ: MM > SMG Points 139/168 |
So, which game is going to try and throw its match the hardest? --- Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses |
time to play FUN WITH (METAL GEAR) NUMBERS If MGS4 = MGSV: LTTP beats Melee with 64.03% FFIV beats KH2 with 53.47% Dark Souls beats G/S/C with 51.71% LTTP beats Halo 3 with 83.29% If LTTP = Melee: MGS4 beats MGSV with 64.03% KH2 beats FFIV with 61.35% G/S/C beats Dark Souls with 62.76% TWEWY beats Cave Story with 67.93% So yeah, it's pretty likely the gap between MGS4 and MGSV is pretty big. Probably not quite big enough for LTTP = Melee (which is probably what Melee needs to beat Chrono Trigger!), but still. We can run some more comparisons during MGS2's match tomorrow. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Biggest SM cut in quite a while --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Updates remaining: 36 Majora's Mask's lead: 360 Number of votes cut per update needed to win: 10 Nice and clean! --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Even if Super Metroid loses, we can say it put up quite a fight this time. --- "If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus |
It's
weird to think Final Fantasy X and Super Mario Kart could have had a
close match...and then weirder to think SMK could have possibly
curb-stomped FFX this year. --- M E N: nominate Metal Man in 20XX! http://i.imgur.com/Dr4NAeq.png |
Mega Man X vs. Super Mario Kart who ya got sounds like something a certain someone would bet their account on --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif (edited 12/4/2015 6:03:34 PM)report |
Don't think SMK would be too close to FFX, maybe 55-45. Trying to apply transitive strength between a weird 4-way result and Majora's weird GotD run comapred to today doesn't seem like it would help clarify anything. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy -trancer1 lol xstats |
LeonhartFour posted... Mega Man X vs. Super Mario Kart who ya got Tough choice, I'd probably give the edge to MMX, but it could go either way. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy -trancer1 lol xstats |
Speaking
of Mario Kart, are there other series represented this contest that
didn't have their strongest entrant in the contest? Seems obvious to me
that SMK and MK64 would have beaten MK8...maybe MKW and MKDS, too. Brawl has an argument over Melee and SSB4, though I wouldn't buy it now. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 won GotY while the original Modern Warfare didn't...don't really buy that either though. I'd probably gamble on Sonic & Knuckles > Sonic 2 with the power of That Cartridge Factor. --- M E N: nominate Metal Man in 20XX! http://i.imgur.com/Dr4NAeq.png |
bring back 12 hour matches --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
No CoD is going to be worth anything in these contests anymore. Need more S3&K. One of these days, SBAllen won't be able to keep it out anymore! ONE OF THESE DAYS (Also DKC1 > DKC2 is probably a thing) --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
transcience posted... bring back 12 hour matches now you know how I felt during the GOTD semifinal --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
12 hour matches would have stopped Undertale before it even started and killed Majora's Mask ...eh still probably worth it to bring 'em back --- Goddamn Ocarina of Time |
