KH1 in 2010 had already weakened from KH1 in 2009. KH1 now doesn't look much different from how it was in 2010.
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
The GOTD x-stats hilariously have Prime getting 56% on Kingdom Hearts. And if you plug Prime's number on Morrowind into the GOTD x-stats Prime still barely loses.

Lol x-stats. I'd still totally pick Prime in a rematch! I mean, would anyone take Vice City over Prime now?
---
"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
It has, but it was seen between the 2009 and 2010 contest.

KH2 went from 48% against Twilight Princess to 43%. Even Sora looked like a four-way wonder
---
BGE3: Today's Matches LoZ:OoT > FFIX, BK > DKC2
Points 135/160
KamikazePotato posted...
KH1 in 2010 had already weakened from KH1 in 2009. KH1 now doesn't look much different from how it was in 2010.


Considering the characters themselves performed like total crap in the 2010 character battle of course KH dropped.

I made a point earlier that Prime was never that weak, it was just that KH and GTA were much more popular in '09 than in '10 and later. 4-ways probably also mitigated both series' anti-votes while Prime had do deal with Paper Mario's presence and LFF between newer Nintendo games consistently produced disastrous results (see: MGS4 vs. Brawl in Round 4 as opposed to MGS4 vs. Brawl in Round 3).
---
"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
I know some people predicted this, but Banjo-Kazooie being stronger than Donkey Kong Country 2 is beyond bizarre to me.

The first two DKCs and GoldenEye are "THE" Rareware titles in terms of cultural footprint. Banjo has always seemed second-tier, alongside stuff like BattleToads and Killer Instinct, in terms of popularity and clout.

I don't mean that as a knock against Banjo, because I think it's a pretty good game, but it's just weird.
---
Now crack that combination:
27 99 23.
That Super Metroid pic is awesome. MM's is great, too. Both way better than LTTP/DS.
---
satoru iwata
MM pic is broken
---
9/2/2013, the day Reddit hacked GameFAQs
Poll5253 posted...
MM pic is broken


Refresh the URL
---
Anime List: http://myanimelist.net/profile/superange VG List: http://myvideogamelist.com/profile/superange128 Visual Novels: https://vndb.org/u6633/votes
I like all the pics. Especially the Dark Souls one. That is badass
Those Super Metroid and Majora's Mask pics are incredible.
---
Now crack that combination:
27 99 23.
Dark Souls pic is amazing to anyone who has played the game. SM/MM pics are stellar even without that.
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
Unfortunately, FF9 having an all-time bad day vote is showing up today. Ocarina looks like it's going to clear 65%, which turns this performance from 'awful' to just 'bad'. red soxes the world over can rejoice!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
(edited 12/3/2015 3:22:56 PM)report
FF9 vs Smash Wii U

how does it go?
Next match in under 6 hours
Zero debate over Super Metroid-Majora's Mask
Do we still underestimate SM?
---
3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066
Nanis23 posted...
Next match in under 6 hours
Zero debate over Super Metroid-Majora's Mask
Do we still underestimate SM?


I actually think it's a tossup with Majora having VERY slight edge

It should be a good match
---
Anime List: http://myanimelist.net/profile/superange VG List: http://myvideogamelist.com/profile/superange128 Visual Novels: https://vndb.org/u6633/votes
12/3/2015 3:34:02 PM#367
charmander6000 posted...
KH2 went from 48% against Twilight Princess to 43%.


what does KH2 get on TP now
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
Fr0zoN posted...
FF9 vs Smash Wii U

how does it go?


Through Mass Effect 1, Smash 4 gets 38.95% against 2010 MM. That's higher than FF9's 2010 stat, but that was behind SFF.
If you adjust FF9 based on its performance against Okami this year, it gets 43.02% against 2010 MM.
If you adjust through 2010 KH1, FF9 gets 39.03%.
If you set KH1=KH2 and adjust that way, FF9 gets 41.01%.
If you do wacky stuff like readjusting KH2 through its match against Melee this year, it gets even worse for Smash 4.

In short: there isn't a result out there that paints Smash 4 as the probable winner.
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
(edited 12/3/2015 3:34:50 PM)report
Nanis23 posted...
Next match in under 6 hours
Zero debate over Super Metroid-Majora's Mask
Do we still underestimate SM?

Majora's Mask losing would ultimately toss the entire GotD contest out the window.
---
http://www.backloggery.com/whitelens | http://myanimelist.net/profile/WhiteLens
http://na.finalfantasyxiv.com/lodestone/character/5086952/
KamikazePotato posted...
Super Mario Maker: 21.93%
Phoenix Wright 3: 21.26%

Gogogo SotN
Gain another percent somehow and flip this!
---
I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
Also what if this is actually just an FFIX/Kingdom Hearts MEGABOOST and Melee is going to save my bracket next round, OoT isn't sucking, and MGS4 is redeemed

BELIEVE
---
I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
Would people here take Super Metroid > FFIX? What does everyone think Majora's Mask would get on OoT (without SFF) and FFIX after today's match?
---
All the stars in the sky are waiting for you.
red sox 777 posted...
I had my chance to do my own calculations earlier. Here are some of the things I took into consideration for my calculations:

1. Counter-rallies for SMW throws off my calculations a bit and I wanted to try and filter out some of the noise to obtain a better estimate of the backfire rate on the Undertale rallies.

2. Even though the first 2 days of round 3 had been getting about 46000-47000 votes per match, I think the 2 matches that happened on the round 3 Undertale day would have naturally gotten even higher GameFAQs vote totals because it was a hyped match. Outside of Board 8, there were dozens of topics relating to Undertale ripping this contest apart. The Current Events board even had over one full page of topics with "Undertale" in the topic title. This should have contributed to higher vote totals as people who generally don't vote in the contests too often decided to vote in this hyped match.

3. I decided to set the Undertale/SMW match to 50000 votes when ignoring the Undertale rally votes. I think 50000 votes seemed reasonable, factoring in slightly higher GameFAQs vote totals plus the extra votes for the SMW rallies. Vote totals for RBY/Sonic 2 also had to be adjusted by taking the 30 minute vote totals from both matches and using them to proportionally adjust the actual vote totals in RBY/Sonic 2 based on my assumption of 50000 votes for Undertale/SMW. This led to an estimate of 49038 votes for RBY/Sonic 2.

4. Finally, I had to make assumptions on the actual percentages of both matches when you factor out the votes from the Undertale rallies. I went with 72% for RBY and 72% for SMW as well. Choosing 72% for SMW might seem a bit odd since it only had 70.45% at the freeze, but that was attempting to factor in the votes from the SMW rallies.

These were my calcuations:

Pokemon RBY vs. Sonic 2
Estimated non-Undertale rally vote totals - 49038
Additional votes from Undertale rallies - 43844
GameFAQs Pokemon RBY vote - 72.00% (including votes from SMW rallies)
Undertale rally Pokemon RBY vote - 84.80%

Undertale vs. Super Mario World
Estimated non-Undertale rally vote totals - 50000
Additional votes from Undertale rallies - 48833
GameFAQs Undertale vote - 28.00% (including votes from SMW rallies)
Undertale rally "Undertale" vote - 82.31%


The backfire rate is lower with these calculations than mine. However, it also implies that the Undertale rally against SMW was barely stronger than the rally against Fallout 3, which brought in around 42,000 votes. Gamefaqs votes would have actually increase MORE between the rounds than rally votes. This despite Tumblr beginning their rallying much earlier in the day against SMW. Which would suggest that there is a ceiling on Undertale rallying on Tumblr, and they've pretty much reached it, since they can't start rallying any earlier than the beginning of the poll.

That is also encouraging for RBY and especially OOT I think. Especially OOT because Gamefaqs votals and counterrallies, will continue to rise, and will be much higher for the final.

The similarity between the Fallout and SMW backfire rates with these numbers would be concerning, but 20% is also pretty high for a rally (Draven was nuking MMX/Ryu far worse) and it's quite plausible that SMW and Fallout 3 are simply pretty close in strength on Tumblr. Pokemon still managed to post extremely strong numbers from the rallied voters against SMB3 and Sonic 2.

Let's try some extrapolation. Assuming SMB3 = SMW on Tumblr, and using Luster's numbers of 74.5% for RBY against SMB3 and 82.3% for Undertale against SMW.....RBY gets a backfire rate of 34.7%. If Gamefaqs/counterrallies accounted for around half the votes again, a 35% backfire rate is more than enough for RBY to win.


This is why i love the stats topic. Thanks guys :)
---
Every day the rest of your life is changed forever.
12/3/2015 5:21:56 PM#374
Mac Arrowny posted...
Would people here take Super Metroid > FFIX? What does everyone think Majora's Mask would get on OoT (without SFF) and FFIX after today's match?


I see Super Metroid at roughly Twilight Princess level so I would take it over FF9. I'd say MM gets around 41% on OoT and 56% on FF9.
---
No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585.
Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest!
That Dark Souls pic would make people who would normally vote for it not want to. f*** those guys, seriously.
---
Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses
I still think Pokemon beats it, but I'm starting to come around on Undertale It kinda really is a really good and popular game. We always complain that new games never gain traction here. Well, this one has gained it and deserves it. It's not on FFVII, CT, or OOT level, but this is nowhere near the same as Draven. Draven was a bunch of jerks who didn't care about the character and just wanted to say, "See, LOL can take over everything". At least Undertale is a legitimately good game.
---
Raytan7585 is better than me at redditFAQs
red sox 777 posted...


The backfire rate is lower with these calculations than mine. However, it also implies that the Undertale rally against SMW was barely stronger than the rally against Fallout 3, which brought in around 42,000 votes. Gamefaqs votes would have actually increase MORE between the rounds than rally votes. This despite Tumblr beginning their rallying much earlier in the day against SMW. Which would suggest that there is a ceiling on Undertale rallying on Tumblr, and they've pretty much reached it, since they can't start rallying any earlier than the beginning of the poll.

That is also encouraging for RBY and especially OOT I think. Especially OOT because Gamefaqs votals and counterrallies, will continue to rise, and will be much higher for the final.

The similarity between the Fallout and SMW backfire rates with these numbers would be concerning, but 20% is also pretty high for a rally (Draven was nuking MMX/Ryu far worse) and it's quite plausible that SMW and Fallout 3 are simply pretty close in strength on Tumblr. Pokemon still managed to post extremely strong numbers from the rallied voters against SMB3 and Sonic 2.

Let's try some extrapolation. Assuming SMB3 = SMW on Tumblr, and using Luster's numbers of 74.5% for RBY against SMB3 and 82.3% for Undertale against SMW.....RBY gets a backfire rate of 34.7%. If Gamefaqs/counterrallies accounted for around half the votes again, a 35% backfire rate is more than enough for RBY to win.


Red Sox, solid analysis as always on the math, but don't use Draven's backfire rate vs MMX/Ryu as a baseline for what blowback should be. I don't think anyone believes that those numbers were legit. There is no reason that Draven blowback was orders of magnitude lower in that match than in all others.
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Raytan7585 is better than me at redditFAQs
One of the hardest boss fights = that DS pic.
---
Formerly known as Dilated Chemist
12/3/2015 5:41:36 PM#379
While Undertale should have more base strength now, it's still fodder. I wouldn't really say it's gained traction here.
---
No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585.
Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest!
I really just don't want Ocarina of Time to win. Again. How many years has it won?

Seriously. Time to move on people.
Uncommondoor posted...
I really just don't want Ocarina of Time to win. Again. How many years has it won?

Seriously. Time to move on people.


Ocarina of Time has won 1 contest. Ever.
Uncommondoor posted...
I really just don't want Ocarina of Time to win. Again. How many years has it won?

Seriously. Time to move on people.


Link =/= Ocarina of Time
---
Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses
Fr0zoN posted...
Uncommondoor posted...
I really just don't want Ocarina of Time to win. Again. How many years has it won?

Seriously. Time to move on people.


Ocarina of Time has won 1 contest. Ever.
red sox 777 posted...
That is also encouraging for RBY and especially OOT I think. Especially OOT because Gamefaqs votals and counterrallies, will continue to rise, and will be much higher for the final.

The similarity between the Fallout and SMW backfire rates with these numbers would be concerning, but 20% is also pretty high for a rally (Draven was nuking MMX/Ryu far worse) and it's quite plausible that SMW and Fallout 3 are simply pretty close in strength on Tumblr. Pokemon still managed to post extremely strong numbers from the rallied voters against SMB3 and Sonic 2.

Let's try some extrapolation. Assuming SMB3 = SMW on Tumblr, and using Luster's numbers of 74.5% for RBY against SMB3 and 82.3% for Undertale against SMW.....RBY gets a backfire rate of 34.7%. If Gamefaqs/counterrallies accounted for around half the votes again, a 35% backfire rate is more than enough for RBY to win.


OoT's main advantage when facing Undertale is that we will have a yellow site alert for the finals, so that would bring in a lot of extra voters who know nothing about Undertale's path to the finals. They should be more inclined to vote for OoT over the regular voters in this contest who are more familiar with how Undertale got this far. The yellow site alert would probably spell doom for CT if it somehow gets to the finals to face OoT. OoT likes high vote totals while this is bad for CT.

It is a bit surprising the backfire rate against Fallout 3 and SMW are very similar. I thought SMW would be a bit more respected on Tumblr than Fallout 3. What might have influenced the backfire rate against SMW are all of the posts complaining about Undertale being circulated all over Tumblr. A handful of bad posts from various Board 8ers about the Undertale domination have been reblogged thousands of times on Tumblr and the people who see these posts might be more likely to vote for Undertale when they might have previously considered voting for SMW.

A 34.7% backfire rate is somewhere in the range of what I thought we might get in the RBY/Undertale match. One advantage in RBY's corner is rallying the game should be easier than rallying SMW. That should help offset a potentially larger Undertale rally next round if it somehow does grow even larger. The Tumblr rallies have most likely gotten pretty close to their maximum, so it will probably come down to rallying on Reddit, Facebook, and Twitter to make the Undertale rally even larger. Any increase in Undertale's natural GameFAQs strength between round 3 and next round will be bad for RBY.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
I don't think anyone believes that those numbers were legit.

Why not? The servers were down.
---
BGE3: Today's Matches LoZ:OoT > FFIX, BK > DKC2
Points 135/160
Not even doubling FFIX? Feels like it's kinda weak

What was OoT estimated to get?
---
Big Black Cannon
#UnitedAgainstBronyism #BringBackBatista
12/3/2015 6:09:06 PM#387
I think the servers only went down the Link vs Draven match. In any case, I think most people considered Draven vs X vs Ryu as legit.
---
No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585.
Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest!
ROUND 3 – DAY 6 – ALL OF DIVISION 6

Match CVII: (1) The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past vs. (4) Dark Souls

Previous Rounds

The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
88.02% against Cave Story
65.45% against Final Fantasy IV

Dark Souls
66.70% against Civilization V
55.40% against Metal Gear Solid V

Analysis

While it is nice to see a newer game doing well the only reason it is here is because it went up against weak competition. The only reading we have is through Perfect Dark and that was a game that lost to Modern Warfare. If you make Perfect Dark a bit stronger than Banjo-Kazooie like it was in their 2009 match then it is possible that Dark Souls could have a decent performance, but like GoldenEye Perfect Dark is more likely to be weaker this contest rather than stronger.

Regardless of where Dark Souls ranks Link to the Past should have no issue winning this match. I think the bigger question is whether it will outdo its round 2 percent and I feel it is quite likely. Final Fantasy IV has shown to have decent strength and I just don’t see how a relatively new IP like Dark Souls could compete with that.

charmander6000’s Bracket: LoZ: Link to the Past > Metal Gear Solid V

charmander6000’s Prediction: LoZ: Link to the Past wins, 68.35% - 31.65%



Match CVIII: (3) Super Metroid vs. (2) The Legend of Zelda: Majora’s Mask

Previous Rounds

Super Metroid
79.46% against Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare
59.59% against Super Mario Galaxy

The Legend of Zelda: Majora’s Mask
75.89% against Valkyria Chronicles
68.87% against Final Fantasy XII

Analysis

See what avoiding Link to the Past can do for you. There’s a slight chance for an upset here if you compare Super Mario Galaxy’s performance against Twilight Princess and assume Twilight Princess would have more SFF than Super Metroid. While it is possible, I don’t think that was the case. I always thought Super Metroid was stronger than Metroid Prime, but the gap between the two should not be so great that it could defeat Majora’s Mask.

Majora’s Mask has done enough to prove that it wasn’t overrated in the 2010 stats which mean it should be able to win this match. The main question would be the possibility of SFF. We all know what Link to the Past did, but that was two SNES games, a Nintendo 64 game wouldn’t be that heavily favoured. I am going to predict that there will be SFF, if there isn’t I could see Super Metroid finishing in the mid-40s.

charmander6000’s Bracket: LoZ: Majora’s Mask > Super Metroid

charmander6000’s Prediction: LoZ: Majora’s Mask wins, 63.56% - 36.44%
---
BGE3: Today's Matches LoZ:OoT > FFIX, BK > DKC2
Points 135/160
I think the servers only went down the Link vs Draven match. In any case, I think most people considered Draven vs X vs Ryu as legit.

I mean LoL's server were down.
---
BGE3: Today's Matches LoZ:OoT > FFIX, BK > DKC2
Points 135/160
Yeah, the LoL servers were actually down during the Draven/Ryu/MMX match. With nothing for the League players to do, the subreddit was probably more active than it usually would be on an average day. That helped fuel was what probably the biggest Draven rally outside of the Snake match.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
12/3/2015 6:16:47 PM#391
Oh, I forgot about that.
---
No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585.
Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest!
I think char meant the league of legends servers. Those being down would mean more players browsing the internet instead of playing league.

I think Fallout 3 and SMW being of similar strength on Tumblr is not really surprising- SMW didn't do much better on Gamefaqs, which adores SNES Nintendo. And we know SMW lost badly to Animal Crossing on Tumblr, and Mario 3 got crushed by RBY.

The main thing that helped SMW hold up better than Fallout is that Gamefaqs votals jumped 20% between rounds, keeping pace with the boost to the rally.
---
September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.
12/3/2015 7:18:19 PM#393
MarquetteKing posted...
Not even doubling FFIX? Feels like it's kinda weak

What was OoT estimated to get?


Well, OoT had two matches with FFIX in the poll in 2009, but there were reasons for FFIX to underperform because it had Chrono Cross in round 1 and Final Fantasy VIII in round 2.

Although for what it's worth, FFIX was only projected to get 36.85% on Majora's Mask in GOTD, but again, it was probably hidden behind some SFF on FFX. This is the first time we've ever gotten a "legit" read on FFIX.
---
http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
Team Rocket Elite posted...
I think the servers only went down the Link vs Draven match. In any case, I think most people considered Draven vs X vs Ryu as legit.


It was for sure a legit win. But part of that rally was clearly not. The numbers just don't make sense otherwise.
---
Raytan7585 is better than me at redditFAQs
Wonder if OoT will make it to 65
---
I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
12/3/2015 7:25:57 PM#396
It seems to be slowing down now, but we're in the second night vote now, so FFIX should recover a bit and possibly prevent that.
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
12/3/2015 7:26:01 PM#397
"Just a heads up to confirm what you probably already knew. The results of the Draven v Ryu v Mega Man X battle are completely accurate. What you witnessed here was purely a rally from an outside source (Reddit's League of Legends subreddit). There was absolutely no vote stuffing at all, simply a huge influx of traffic." ~ SBAllen

No foul play was detected and we know Draven is capable of massive vote rallies.
---
No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585.
Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest!
DaruniaTheGoron posted...
Nanis23 posted...
The hate for RBY here disgusts me
And it's coming from a person that hates genwunners and considers every Pokemon gen to be an improvement over the previous one
Yes it's clear that RBY is a buggy mess, but I can never forget the impact it had on my life and how f***ing much I loved it back then


Buggy mess? I honestly don't remember any game breaking glitches. The only ones I remember are forced glitches.

RBY is amazing... Even if new ones made improvements I think they overloaded the amount of Pokemon in them. 150 is more than enough.


Its not really 150 though - there's no legitimate uses for Kakuna or Charmeleon.

We're talking like maybe 50 or 60 total.

now we've got around 200 or so.
---
Board 8's Voice of Reason
http://i.imgur.com/chXIw06.jpg
What would Super Mario Galaxy need to get on Final Fantasy XII for Super Metroid = Majora's Mask?
12/3/2015 8:04:27 PM#400
tennisboy213 posted...
What would Super Mario Galaxy need to get on Final Fantasy XII for Super Metroid = Majora's Mask?


61.48%

GOTD suggests Mario Galaxy wins with 56.46% but Galaxy was probably behind some TP SFF.

Portal 60/40'd FFXII in GOTD, so it wouldn't be unheard of for Mario Galaxy to be able to do it.
---
http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif

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