GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1231
So,
a couple things changed since I looked at this in the early stages of
the match. First, the Undertale rally against SMW ended up only
bringing in about 10,000 more votes than the the UT rally against
Fallout 3, or a bit less than 25%. This can pretty much entirely be
attributed to the UT rally against SMW starting earlier. The peak
strength of the rally was actually a little less, possbily because by
the time we got to the peak hours in the afternoon, more of the people
being rallied had already voted earlier in the day. Meanwhile, Gamefaqs votals rose almost 20% from round 2 to round 3, as we switched from 4 polls a day to 2 polls a day. For whatever reason, SMW's percentage of the rallied/extra votes seemed to decline somewhat in the second half of the poll- possibly the SMW counterrallies gave up. Total votes: FFVII/SSBWU - 47118 Undertale/SMW - 98833 Estimated Gamefaqs votes in Undertale/SMW - 47118 Estimated rally votes (including counterrally) in Undertale/SMW - 51715 Assuming SMW got 66% of the natural Gamefaqs votes, Undertale got 73.82% of the rallied votes. Assuming SMW got 68% of the natural Gamefaqs votes, Undertale got 75.64% of the rallied votes. Assuming SMW got 70% of the natural Gamefaqs votes, Undertale got 77.46% of the rallied votes. Assuming SMW got 72% of the natural Gamefaqs votes, Undertale got 79.29% of the rallied votes Assuming SMW got 74% of the natural Gamefaqs votes, Undertale got 81.11% of the rallied votes. Assuming RBY got 72% of the natural Gamefaqs votes, RBY got 84.26% of the rallied votes against Sonic 2. I think Luster calculated that RBY got around 74.5% of the rallied votes against SMB3. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Karma Hunter posted... The problem is for most of the match RBY rallies getting off the ground is going to be a big struggle, because it's going to be killing Undertale for most of the match just like SMW was. Rallying for a game that's ahead 70/30 is hard to do (even though sometimes people will try, like the OoT rally that just went up now). Then ralliers should link to the poll updates for Undertale's previous matches to show that Pokemon will lose without support despite being up. Intelligent rallying for Pokemon can work. It's a heavy underdog but it's not a lost cause. But I bet Poke-rallies will fail the one time we want them to succeed :\ --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Do
not worry. I have Pokemon going all the way to the finals as a reverse
jinx, but because the contest secretly hates me, Pokemon will most
assuredly make it that far. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
LeonhartFour posted... Do not worry. I have Pokemon going all the way to the finals as a reverse jinx, but because the contest secretly hates me, Pokemon will most assuredly make it that far. The savior the contest needs --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
and
also I will win no prize money despite having the correct finals
because I didn't fully dive into the reverse jinx by picking against FFX
at the earliest opportunity this is my lot in this contest and I accept it --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
CT
is also potentially costing me prize money (well not really because
Undertale would stop that from happening anyway, but if we somehow get
SM64 > RBY > Undertale that'd be the case!) --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Oh
hey, FFIX came decently close to a cut. Only a 22 vote gain for OoT
there, and we're not even into the deepest part of the night yet (That
comes in another 30ish minutes). --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
red That was the point! I make no claim that FFX was overrated relative to 00s games (other than MM, at least, which is almost a 90s game). Then you should say Millennial games are overrated. Not that FFX is overrated. But the natural strength is 50/50, and MM will get that rally 9 days out of 10. This is pretty much what I said. There weren't any opponents FFX would beat that MM would not. I agree. or overperforming because OOT wasn't in the contest and people needed to find a proxy for their beloved OOT. This may have happened. Probably not, but maybe. I feel MM has boosted a bit due to prestige from winning GOTD, though that may be totally untrue. In any case FFX being overrated still doesn't make any sense, unless you literally just mean all Millennial games. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
In any case FFX being overrated still doesn't make any sense, unless you literally just mean all Millennial games. My perceptions are probably skewed because I pay very little attention to anything in these contests that doesn't involve 90s games anymore. FFX, Melee, and Brawl are pretty much the 3 stepping stones across the eras, because they are the 3 strongest games from the era (MM is an N64 game). No one talks about any other Millennial games against the 90s elites, in large part because until this year, they were never given a chance to meet except in the extreme late rounds of the contest. When I say FFX is overrated, I mean it's overrated relative to the games where I have a good idea of what the strength gap is and pay attention. Now that I think about it, I don't think I've ever attacked FFX's strength while comparing it to a game made after 2000 during this whole crusade about it being overrated. For most of the Millennial games, I have no intuition about their strength and not much stats knowledge either. I'm aware it makes me a pretty bad predictor, but I enjoy these contests more as a fan of trends and of some of the games than as a predictor, so I'm okay with that. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
creativename posted... KamikazePotato posted...Match pics make very, very little difference for games. This shouldn't even really be a discussion. This I didn't even know it was Ocarina of Time Look at the picture I posted https://www.dropbox.com/s/ytthvqia7k49ihq/photo%2003-12-15%2C%2008%2039%2032.png?dl=0 This is how it looks on mobile --- 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
OoT got a 53% update a while back. Man, I almost want to bite on LttP > OoT in two rounds. That's not too much crazier than FFVI > FFVII, right? --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
Don't worry, LTTP will get its chance to embarass itself against its next opponent soo- Oh wait, it's facing a modern game. Nevermind! --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
There
is something severely wrong with Ocarina this contest. I don't care if
it's against Pokemon, Undertale, CT, FF7, or whatever else in the final.
This Ocarina cannot win this contest. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
Ocarina of Time's anti-voting makes it seem weaker than Chrono Trigger. That's a pretty big deal. Too bad Chrono Trigger's only chance to win a contest is screwed because of Undertale. No offence to Undertale, it's a fantastic game, but man it would have been cool to see Chrono Trigger topple the king. Undertale doing so would only be because of a rally. It doesn't really count. --- Video Games are pretty cool. |
What's
so weird is that OoT looked godly in round 1. Hearthstone is obviously
not a strong game here, but I don't think I can buy that R2 and R3
Ocarina is the same as R1 Ocarina. I kinda wonder if the rally stirred
up anti-OoT sentiment or something. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
I don't have much trouble seeing Hearthstone as one of the weakest games ever to get in. It's a miracle that it did get in. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
I just woken up and I checked the results. This is what I have to say: 1st match=If FF 9 manages to avoid a doubling I will be happy! Also some said the picture is bad. It is Link playing an Ocarina and above it says Zelda. WHAT GAME IS THIS? I am so confused! 2nd match=Man Castlevania is going to finals and it would lose to so many games that are already out. SBAllen is a Castlevania fan, that is for sure! --- Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing? 124 Gurus were better than me in BGE 2015 contest! |
Regarding the pic, I honestly spent maybe ten seconds before voting wondering if that was LttP before I remembered today's match --- **R.O.B.A.Z.O.I.D** (On mobile) |
HE'S HOLDING A f***ING OCARINA FF9 is beasting and I love it. --- Not_Wylvane |
The Ocarina is cropped out of the mobile version of the pic --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
You can't see the ocarina on mobile. Or Navi. It's just Link of an indeterminate age and a logo that only says Zelda --- **R.O.B.A.Z.O.I.D** (On mobile) |
Does it show Link blowing something off-screen? I'd figure that'd get more votes if anything! --- Not_Wylvane |
FF9 missed winning an update by 1 vote. it's at 37% and climbing. yikes. you could twist these numbers ten different ways and spell doom for Ocarina. it's an absolute shame that we won't be able to get a true read on this unless some miracle happens. the winner of CT/FF7 (or un-rallied RBY, if that's even a thing) deserves a shot at the king. subjectively, I'm feeling like Zelda is as strong as ever but the gap between OOT and the other Zelda games has shrunk bigtime. I'm willing to give OOT every benefit of the doubt but even then this is two bad performances in a row. ...we're not going to get another good picture of OOT until the final, right? SOTN probably doesn't match up with FF9 (though I could be wrong), LTTP won't tell us anything and then we have to rely on the MGS/RE4/etc groupings to not disappoint. --- xyzzy |
transience posted... FF9 missed winning an update by 1 vote. it's at 37% and climbing. yikes. The 5:25 AM update is one of those bad updates if you compared the vote totals to the 5:20 AM update. Comparing the 5:20 AM and 5:26 AM updates would be recommended here. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
Mobilezoid posted... You can't see the ocarina on mobile. Or Navi. It's just Link of an indeterminate age and a logo that only says Zelda That's almost as good as Melee's picture just being Final Destination. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! Future 2015 Guru Contest winner. |
LeonhartFour posted... more like DKC2 vs. FFIX who wins FFIX, 60-40 --- Formerly known as Dilated Chemist |
There has to be a FF9/Vivi/Black Mage rally somewhere. --- Formerly known as Dilated Chemist |
That, or Penis Navi is the culprit. --- Formerly known as Dilated Chemist (edited 12/3/2015 3:26:13 AM)report |
_SecretSquirrel posted... That's almost as good as Melee's picture just being Final Destination. Just add 2 Foxes and it'd be perfect --- "This place has a nice view of Hod. And also... I promised someone." - Asch, Tales of the Abyss |
OoT is looking pretty terrible. I guess it might be vulnerable to more than super rally Undertale then. Too bad it won't have a serious challenge until the finals. |
If only we could rally 4chan for voting Vivi! --- Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing? 124 Gurus were better than me in BGE 2015 contest! |
SwiftyDC posted... That, or Penis Navi is the culprit. Lmao |
red sox 777 posted... So, a couple things changed since I looked at this in the early stages of the match. First, the Undertale rally against SMW ended up only bringing in about 10,000 more votes than the the UT rally against Fallout 3, or a bit less than 25%. This can pretty much entirely be attributed to the UT rally against SMW starting earlier. The peak strength of the rally was actually a little less, possbily because by the time we got to the peak hours in the afternoon, more of the people being rallied had already voted earlier in the day. I had my chance to do my own calculations earlier. Here are some of the things I took into consideration for my calculations: 1. Counter-rallies for SMW throws off my calculations a bit and I wanted to try and filter out some of the noise to obtain a better estimate of the backfire rate on the Undertale rallies. 2. Even though the first 2 days of round 3 had been getting about 46000-47000 votes per match, I think the 2 matches that happened on the round 3 Undertale day would have naturally gotten even higher GameFAQs vote totals because it was a hyped match. Outside of Board 8, there were dozens of topics relating to Undertale ripping this contest apart. The Current Events board even had over one full page of topics with "Undertale" in the topic title. This should have contributed to higher vote totals as people who generally don't vote in the contests too often decided to vote in this hyped match. 3. I decided to set the Undertale/SMW match to 50000 votes when ignoring the Undertale rally votes. I think 50000 votes seemed reasonable, factoring in slightly higher GameFAQs vote totals plus the extra votes for the SMW rallies. Vote totals for RBY/Sonic 2 also had to be adjusted by taking the 30 minute vote totals from both matches and using them to proportionally adjust the actual vote totals in RBY/Sonic 2 based on my assumption of 50000 votes for Undertale/SMW. This led to an estimate of 49038 votes for RBY/Sonic 2. 4. Finally, I had to make assumptions on the actual percentages of both matches when you factor out the votes from the Undertale rallies. I went with 72% for RBY and 72% for SMW as well. Choosing 72% for SMW might seem a bit odd since it only had 70.45% at the freeze, but that was attempting to factor in the votes from the SMW rallies. These were my calcuations: Pokemon RBY vs. Sonic 2 Estimated non-Undertale rally vote totals - 49038 Additional votes from Undertale rallies - 43844 GameFAQs Pokemon RBY vote - 72.00% (including votes from SMW rallies) Undertale rally Pokemon RBY vote - 84.80% Undertale vs. Super Mario World Estimated non-Undertale rally vote totals - 50000 Additional votes from Undertale rallies - 48833 GameFAQs Undertale vote - 28.00% (including votes from SMW rallies) Undertale rally "Undertale" vote - 82.31% --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
Under 63 now (well, for a while, but I just checked again) @_@ --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Ocarina of Time still beats FF7 probably. FF7 literally couldn't double a Wii U game. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
Augh,
after stressing out so much about that Skyrim match, I'm annoyed I only
jumped up from Top 91 to Top 82. I figured it would be the favorite,
but damn. --- NEW YORK METS - 2015 National League Champions |
I don't know what I was expecting when I picked DKC2 over SotN, but it was probably about what I just saw when I voted <_< |
Man if SOTN finished higher than OOT percentage wise it would be hilarious! --- Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing? 124 Gurus were better than me in BGE 2015 contest! |
Good thing America is coming to save the day! (I actually prefer both FFIX to OoT, but I don't want OoT to have weakened). --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
LinkMarioSamus posted... Ocarina of Time still beats FF7 probably. FF7 literally couldn't double a Wii U game. It couldn't double a Smash game, mind. --- Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses |
Man
Americans are at it again. Well at least it will avoid a doubling. As
for FF 7 vs Smash, FF 7 did okay. It seems to be the favorite smash game
anyway. At least according to a poll that was posted here. --- Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing? 124 Gurus were better than me in BGE 2015 contest! |
red sox 777 posted... There are pokemon fansites everywhereee. Can we not counter-rally against undertale? Is it really that hopeless? I posted my rally attempt story in the previous stat topic It was for Mewtwo on the Draven/Mewtwo match As I said, most boards/forums were dead to the point I had 10 views when the match was over The popular forums deleted my rally for spam /vp/ and Pokemon subreddit didn't care If you know of any other place that we can rally, it can be great And Squirtle was strong enough to get close to Cloud without a rally, and /v/ cared because they hate Cloud You know, when I think about it, maybe the best place to rally for Pokemon is...tumblr It can backfire, sure... But who knows --- 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
Kotetsu534 posted... If there was no Undertale the CT > OoT hype would be through the roof right now. FFIX is straight up doing better against it than FFX did on CT, when FFX blew it the heck out in GOTD. Pretty significant comparison, yes. FF9 has clearly gained since GotD and FFX has dropped, but nobody would have dared to pick FF9 > FFX before the contest...and probably still wouldn't be picked by most people. This legitimizes CT even more. Damn that Undertale('s rallying). --- M E N: nominate Metal Man in 20XX! http://i.imgur.com/Dr4NAeq.png |
Tumblr as a whole supports Pokemon over Undertale, the question would be whether there are enough big fish that care. Man Americans are at it again. Well at least it will avoid a doubling. As for FF 7 vs Smash, FF 7 did okay. It seems to be the favorite smash game anyway. At least according to a poll that was posted here. Among fans that have played the games, sure, but ownership of SSB4 is a lot lower relative to the other games. It's like with Pokemon where gen 1 is rarely considered the favourite among people that have played all or most of the generations, but it is one of the strongest games in the contest.. --- BGE3: Today's Matches LoZ:OoT > FFIX, BK > DKC2 Points 135/160 |
I'm not sure how I feel about this --- satoru iwata |
I
don't buy CT >OOT at all, as much as I want it to be true. Even if
CT looks indirectly better I still expect it to lose in a straight up
battle.Also I hold to the belief that CT performed as well as it did
because it was square vs square. I dont think the overlap between FFX
and CT is as small as some say it is. I think FFX is more old square
than new square. |
FFX is only 6 years newer than CT. It's been over 14 years since ffx came out. There's definitely a bit of overlap. And can we stop pretending the pic doesn't matter? We've had several contest vets say they didn't even know it was OOT. This board has a problem placing themselves in the average voters shoes sometimes, that's why mgs3 v mgs was even debated this year. --- http://www.last.fm/user/VinnyMendoza "This is all we have... when we die.." |
Nanis23 posted... red sox 777 posted...There are pokemon fansites everywhereee. Can we not counter-rally against undertale? Is it really that hopeless? It's probably worth trying. I mean what's the worst that happens ? Undertale winning MORE ? This won't change the result , just the stats and honestly, the stats are already dead so. |
okay, I'm going to leave CT out of this for now just in case there's any FFX weirdness. this probably ends around 65%. that means that the gap between Ocarina, Mario 64 and LTTP is the difference between FF9, FFT and FF4 respectively. that's.. interesting. you could throw Mario World and FF8 in there if you were brave. --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
