GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1231
KamikazePotato posted... Match pics make very, very little difference for games. This shouldn't even really be a discussion. There is literally no text. Match pics are the only factor, except for foreknowledge of contestants and a mouseover (which few were aware of on their own). It makes sense that they'd be a much larger factor than ever before. I'm on mobile and this OoT pic is awful. Would not be at all surprised if FFIX was over performing a lot. Honestly I predicted OoT with 67.50% in the Oracle partially because of the pic. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Karma Hunter posted... OoT getting heavily antivoted now isn't a good thing for it. It might mess a little bit with its transitivity, but heavy antivotes are very bad in a normal match against something that can threaten it, especially with our normally low total votes. Well, that really depends what the anti-voters' normal opinion of OoT is. If a significant amount of them are people that really like it but are tired of it "always winning" then yeah, that's bad, but if it's mostly people who have it in their bottom half of games then they wouldn't be voting for it against elite competition anyway. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Even
among our elite games, there's a significant amount of people who
haven't played the game. The people who haven't played OoT is like,
what, 20%? If they flip from not voting or favoring OoT 50/50 over
another game they haven't played to heavily antivoting OoT, that's going
to hurt it. --- Goddamn Ocarina of Time |
I
just checked mobile and it's a picture of Link's face with the ZELDA
logo. That is...really not bad in the slightest. I'm someone who
overreacts to pics and you guys are reeeeeally overreacting to this pic.
It's just like yesterday when people said Mario 64's pic was awful. And regardless, there's text when you hover over the game on the non-mobile site which is what the vast majority of voters will be doing. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. (edited 12/2/2015 11:07:20 PM)report |
I kind of feel like whatever wins the top half of the bracket wins the contest. It's almost certainly Undertale, but if something manages to beat it somehow, it has almost certainly used a rally of its own and I imagine will keep it on deck for future rounds and/or ride the momentum. It's just really hard for me to think of a way OoT realistically wins at this point. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? |
But perhaps paradoxically the biggest threat to OoT's chances is that it always wins.
Not just here. On sites all around the internet, OoT is routinely voted
as the best or among the best games. It's not just GameFAQs that knows
OoT always wins now, it's the entire internet. If that's not a recipe for getting snakebit by the upset bug, I don't know what is. --- Goddamn Ocarina of Time |
KamikazePotato posted... I just checked mobile and it's a picture of Link's face with the ZELDA logo. That is...really not bad in the slightest. I'm someone who overreacts to pics and you guys are reeeeeally overreacting to this pic. It's just like yesterday when people said Mario 64's pic was awful. Its just not instantly recognizable as Ocarina of Time. I refreshed for the new matches and it took me back for a second. "what the hell is that?" Mario 64 is different because anyone can look at that picture and instantly think "Mario 64" Not saying its making much of a difference but having a pic that bad shouldn't be a thing when a game like OoT has tons and tons of great official art. |
Pokemon can beat Undertale and lose to Mario 64 in the next round. It won't absorb Undertale's strength or anything. --- http://i.imgur.com/gByqgPg.gif |
Red, why would FFX be overrated? That makes no sense, we had multiple reads on it. And GOTD has been pretty accurate too. It was probably me, I've been on an FFX is overrated crusade for 6 years. I mean, whether FFX is overrated depends on where people were estimating it in the first place. I thought we had a pretty good read on it, at around 33% on Ocarina, in 2009 (of course, 2009 OOT was probably stronger than the one we're seeing today and not being handicapped by one of the worst pictures ever to a significant percentage of voters- and is there any data on how many people vote from a phone nowadays?). That would have FFX in the 45-47% range against CT, SMW, and SMB3, the 40-45% range against LTTP, Mario 64, and RBY, and the 47-49% range against SSBM/SSBB. In GOTD, I remember people were so incredulous at MM beating FFX that they insisted that MM overperformed. MM/FFX was 1v1, 24 hours, and without SFF, so it was literally the most legitimate match we'd had between games since 2004. But people were so convinced that FFX was supposed to be stronger, that they insisted it was stronger than MM, even after it lost. I mean, I don't know where you put FFX, but 2/3 of the board took it to beat CT this year, and the consensus for LTTP/FFX seemed to be around 53%, so I'd call that pretty overrated. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
In fact, that is the one scenario I've been re-running in order to hold out some hope of staying in the Top 50. --- http://i.imgur.com/gByqgPg.gif |
CaptainOfCrush posted... Pokemon can beat Undertale and lose to Mario 64 in the next round. It won't absorb Undertale's strength or anything. I would be really shocked if that happened. I mean beating Undertale then turning around and losing to SM64? that would be a lock for worst performance of the contest imo --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? |
xp1337 posted... I kind of feel like whatever wins the top half of the bracket wins the contest. That's how I felt about this contest before it even began. The whole left side of the bracket was seemingly designed so that whatever game won would have to beat several worthy contenders along the way. I don't think OoT is that far ahead of the pack that any momentum boost couldn't make up the difference. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! Future 2015 Guru Contest winner. |
I
feel like Ocarina and FF7 are fairly equal. Pokemon R/B/Y a small ways
behind(without rallies) and Chrono Trigger around the same. However CT
has been rallied all contest so that has become part of its base
strength. I would go CT>FF7>OoT>RBY right now. |
One
of the worst pictures ever man MGS's picture had an unreadable title
and a grey-white blob on mobile for the first two rounds I hope everyone arguing OoT is being held back today is riding the MGS to semifinals train! --- Goddamn Ocarina of Time |
Karma Hunter posted... OoT getting heavily antivoted now isn't a good thing for it. It might mess a little bit with its transitivity, but heavy antivotes are very bad in a normal match against something that can threaten it, especially with our normally low total votes. You mean linearity. Transitory is A>B, B>C therefore A>C. The only thing that can mess with transitivity is a bandwagon combined with multiple characters advancing, or LFF combined with multiple characters advancing. So only L-Block or lol 4 ways. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
I
don't see Pokemon losing to Mario 64 after beating Undertale. Mario 64
is not performed well enough to suggest it should be on par with Mario
World or slightly stronger. SNES games have been the star of the
contest and not Nintendo 64 games, so I think Mario World is probably
the strongest Mario game right now. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
I
mean, maybe the match pic accounts for 1% at the most? To me it really
just speaks of trying to make excuses for a game we've considered
untouchable. OoT had a bad performance against Suikoden II, and it's
having a bad performance today. It's going to have a bad performance
next round too - watch people freak out when SotN gets close to FF9's
numbers today, --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Look I'm a stats topic regular that means I misuse basic stats terminology it's a thing okay --- Goddamn Ocarina of Time |
CT can beat Pokemon if Pokemon beats Undertale. There's enough of a strength gap. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Oh,
and rallies can also potentially mess with transitivity if they don't
show up for future rounds. But I can't recall that ever happening. Basically you need either non-constant strength from round to round, enough to outright flip results, or multi-way LFF. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Karma Hunter posted... Look I'm a stats topic regular that means I misuse basic stats terminology it's a thing okay Whatever, it's not a thing at all. Now let's talk about how bad FFIX is SFF'ing OoT here... --- [CACAW] Viviff the Great - GameFAQs Smash 4 Champion http://i.imgur.com/naBMwqS.jpg |
By the way, FF9 is currently almost winning the UK outright, so if you think OoT is underperforming now.. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. (edited 12/2/2015 11:21:58 PM)report |
Karma Hunter posted... Zelda isn't showing up to fight FFIX very hard right now! The easiest and most favorable solution to the problem is that FFIX is basically pulling a Magus 2003, overperforming well above its own natural strength level for reasons unknown. This basically means in a couple of years we'll get FFIX vs. Sonic 3 & Knuckles and S3&K will win, so I'm okay with this. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
red sox 777 posted... Red, why would FFX be overrated? That makes no sense, we had multiple reads on it. And GOTD has been pretty accurate too. MM was rallied and without that it would have lost, we can be confident if that. Of course, it would have almost always out-rallied FFX and their natural strength was virtually equal anyway. So stronger only meant very barely stronger, and indirectly. FFX beat RE4 easy. Was RE4 weak? Again, a drop relative to CT doesn't mean it was overrated. Relative to other Millennial games it was rated almost perfectly. Millennial games may have been overrated relative to 90's games, but that's different. There's just no logic to claiming it was rated wrong IMO. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
FFIX pulling a Magus 2k3 still leaves Suikoden II unaccounted for. Plus if OoT is Link 2k3 well y'know --- Goddamn Ocarina of Time |
Karma Hunter posted... FFIX pulling a Magus 2k3 still leaves Suikoden II unaccounted for. Link would've underperformed in round 2 if he weren't facing Fox friggin' McCloud AiAi = Hearthstone and the analogy is perfect --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif (edited 12/2/2015 11:38:06 PM)report |
i think the real takeaway here is that in a few years ffix is going to lose to a bag of sand --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? |
xp1337 posted... i think the real takeaway here is that in a few years ffix is going to lose to a bag of sand First S3&K, next Smash 4. or Smash 5 if we're at that one by then. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
KamikazePotato posted... By the way, FF9 is currently almost winning the UK outright, so if you think OoT is underperforming now.. Yeah this is going to get bad for it overnight especially in the dead zone. It probably drops under 63% overnight before regaining 2-4 points in the day. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
SOTN is skyrocketing right now, too. Night vote should be really good to it. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Holy
s***. Chrono Trigger got more on FFX than OoT is getting on FF9. I hate
undertale so much right now. Chrono Trigger was going to win this
f***ing contest. I am so sorry I only took you to the finals CT I knew I
should have had faith and taken you to win. Rallies ruining what would
have been one of the greatest moments in gamefaqs history. Oh sweet I'm finally on the leaderboard. --- 9/2/13-The Hero of GameFAQs fought bravely but fell to an unrelenting horde supported by a corrupt tyranny. R.I.P. Hero of Time, 7 time CB Champion, Link (edited 12/2/2015 11:44:58 PM)report |
If
there was no Undertale the CT > OoT hype would be through the roof
right now. FFIX is straight up doing better against it than FFX did on
CT, when FFX blew it the heck out in GOTD. --- We are living our lives Abound with so much information |
saveus.pokemon |
Man OoT is really sucking it up. Still not biting on CT > OoT, but jeeze. SotN, on the other hand, is rocking it. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
KamikazePotato posted... By the way, FF9 is currently almost winning the UK outright, so if you think OoT is underperforming now.. Is there anything to the fact that the picture looks kinda wind wakery? --- Board 8's Voice of Reason http://i.imgur.com/chXIw06.jpg |
charmander6000 posted... Going through KOTOR right now, Xenogears gets 63% on Suikoden II. That's eerie! --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Don't worry guys, OoT is going to make a comeback! Noted Hero of the Contest InsaneGamer137 has posted an OoT rally to reddit! --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Why is everyone discussing KOTOR and Xenogears every few pages? Did I miss something? |
There are pokemon fansites everywhereee. Can we not counter-rally against undertale? Is it really that hopeless? --- www.twitch.tv/Hylian88 www.twitter.com/Hylian88 |
Hylian88 posted... There are pokemon fansites everywhereee. Can we not counter-rally against undertale? Is it really that hopeless? Pokemon has a shot, but rallying is actually quite hard. A lot of time people see the rally, say "this looks stupid/pointless" and it gains no traction. Undertale already has the rally machine going, but RBY is going to need a lot of luck to pull it off. I definitely don't think the natural backfire rate is going to be enough to save it now that half of the people pushing the rallies are encouraging people to "make gamefaqs salty." --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Millennial games may have been overrated relative to 90's games, but that's different. That was the point! I make no claim that FFX was overrated relative to 00s games (other than MM, at least, which is almost a 90s game). FFX was sort of the representative of the 00s games, because it had direct matches against OOT without SFF. FFX's strength relative to the 90s elite games set the bar for the other 00s games. As for MM being rallied, it only won by 200 something votes, so yes, it probably needed the small rally it got. But the natural strength is 50/50, and MM will get that rally 9 days out of 10. There weren't any opponents FFX would beat that MM would not. People were talking about MM overperforming much more than a few hundred votes by being bandwagoned or overperforming because OOT wasn't in the contest and people needed to find a proxy for their beloved OOT. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
The
problem is for most of the match RBY rallies getting off the ground is
going to be a big struggle, because it's going to be killing Undertale
for most of the match just like SMW was. Rallying for a game that's
ahead 70/30 is hard to do (even though sometimes people will try, like
the OoT rally that just went up now). By the time Undertale finally catches up, its opponent's fate is already sealed. --- Goddamn Ocarina of Time |
I feel like CT is one of the least rallyable games ever It's not like CT has fansites or subreddits :( --- RIP in Pieces GamerJM, 2007-2015. You will be missed. #UnPermabanJim |
Actually
Majora's Mask only gets that rally 1 day out of 10 because there were
only three 24 hour matches the entire contest. Any other day, it loses
to FFX. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
LordoftheMorons posted... Don't worry guys, OoT is going to make a comeback! Noted Hero of the Contest InsaneGamer137 has posted an OoT rally to reddit! ...Why would you need a rally if OoT is already winning? |
Firestarter27 posted... LordoftheMorons posted...Don't worry guys, OoT is going to make a comeback! Noted Hero of the Contest InsaneGamer137 has posted an OoT rally to reddit! You don't, which is why I made that sarcastic post >_> --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
There are pokemon fansites everywhereee. Can we not counter-rally against undertale? Is it really that hopeless? Pokemon is one of the most rallyable things. Last contest, the Squirtle rally in Cloud/Squirtle produced about 10,000 extra votes- about 20% of the Undertale rally against SMW. If it also has a lower backfire rate, that can make quite the dent (a 90/10 rally cancels out a 70/30 rally with double the strength). --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Karma Hunter posted... The problem is for most of the match RBY rallies getting off the ground is going to be a big struggle, because it's going to be killing Undertale for most of the match just like SMW was. Rallying for a game that's ahead 70/30 is hard to do (even though sometimes people will try, like the OoT rally that just went up now). Would it be more effective if we rally RBY when it is close to/already losing? |
handsomeboy2012 posted... Would it be more effective if we rally RBY when it is close to/already losing? The rallies would be more likely to catch on then. The flipside is that they then have less time to do their thing. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Smash Wii U vs FF9, who wins? --- Formerly known as Dilated Chemist |
