GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1229
creativename posted... Actually I'll start. Pretty sure Link was the SC2K4 favorite, actually. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Walking
Dead was a big LP game and we saw how that went. we need to stop
thinking about things like LPs in the context of gamefaqs voters.
everything they vote for existed before youtube existed. --- xyzzy |
Pretty sure Link was the SC2K4 favorite, actually. Yup, Sephiroth in the villains, Samus in 2006, Link in 2008, Link in 2010 and Link/Ganondorf 2011 were the only other times where the board favourite won --- BGE3: Today's Matches Pokemon RBYG>Sonic 2, SMW>Fallout 3 Points 123/144 |
It wasn't Cloud in 2004? --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
the oracle says Link but I wonder about pre-contest. I mean, Cloud won 2003 and FF7 won 2004 games. --- xyzzy |
2004 was part of the Twilight Princess hype train. Link in all his non-cel shaded glory, ect. I think that helped out a lot. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Pretty sure Link was the favourite, if not it was barely Cloud. TP hype was real. --- BGE3: Today's Matches Pokemon RBYG>Sonic 2, SMW>Fallout 3 Points 123/144 |
I'm
fairly confident Cloud was the favorite going in 2004. Link was the
favorite day of, because we were looking at 66% on Mega Man vs. 59% on
Samus in the semis. --- "What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!" This is Yesmar. Congrats to CBIX Guru Winner *Raytan*! |
I
remember 2005 as being the year of TP hype vs. Advent Children. we
spent like three months going over that exhaustively since they were in
the TOC. Tifa and Vincent would dominate and we'd say Cloud, Kirby would
crush Tidus and we'd say Link, etc. --- xyzzy |
I know Link had like 40% of brackets site-wide to win in 2004 or something absurd considering Cloud had won the year before. *checks* 35.39%, so not quite as high as I thought but still high. BOP slightly favored Link, 53/47 according to cn's expanded stats on the site. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Persona
4 definitely got way stronger since 2010. Put Dead Rising against it
now, and Persona 4 might score a blowout. It had the potential to score a
few upsets in Division V or VIII. --- Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses |
While
its performance against GoldenEye was truly impressive, 56% seems
awfully high for Skyrim. After all, MP has been impressing as well. I really think that's going to be a close match, and I doubt whoever wins is doing so by more than a 52%-ish margin. --- Now crack that combination: 27 99 23. |
MechanicalWall posted... Persona 4 definitely got way stronger since 2010. Put Dead Rising against it now, and Persona 4 might score a blowout. It had the potential to score a few upsets in Division V or VIII. Can you imagine how weak Dead Rising would be nowadays? Yikes. --- Now crack that combination: 27 99 23. |
I assume there's a reason it didn't make the bracket this year. --- Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses |
Here's the results from the Summer 2004 BOP final, I don't have the guru. 1Link - 53 1Cloud Strife - 47 2Sephiroth - 11 1Megaman - 7 3Crono - 1 --- BGE3: Today's Matches Pokemon RBYG>Sonic 2, SMW>Fallout 3 Points 123/144 |
Just checked and I'm wrong. Link was the favorite in the BOP that year, but Cloud was the favorite for the Gurus. Edit: BOP: http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/04Summer/sc2k4BoardOdds.xls Guru Topic: http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/04Summer/04Summer-GuruBrackets.html --- "What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!" This is Yesmar. Congrats to CBIX Guru Winner *Raytan*! (edited 12/1/2015 6:29:49 PM)report |
The
rally has really slowed down. I'm guessing that's more because they're
winning by such a large margin rather than because they're hitting their
limit, though. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
LeonhartFour posted... Mario World with a 1 vote cut! More like hold onto your Yoshis! --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
LeonhartFour posted... Mario World with a 1 vote cut! Nope. That was just the updater picking up a bad update. You can check this yourself by looking at the Total Votes column and comparing it to the Time column. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! (edited 12/1/2015 6:33:13 PM)report |
Either
way, looks like SMW will finish above Fallout 3. Not what I expected
considering how early this rally started and how strong it was for
basically the entire match. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. (edited 12/1/2015 6:34:03 PM)report |
KamikazePotato posted... Either way, looks like SMW will finish above Fallout 3. Not what I expected considering how early this rally started and how strong it was for basically the entire match. I'm guessing rallies lose a significant amount of power once the rallied competitor is perceived to have a safe lead. Probably also makes it really hard to rally RBY/OoT until it's too late. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Tumblr rallies don't really work that way. They're self-perpetuating. I think we're just seeing what is (close to) the rally's ceiling. Good news for RBY next round, although Undertale should still be on the odds on favorite going in. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
We
have a frame of reference now though, which is that we saw RBY blow
SMB3's doors off, and we can guess that SMB3 and SMW are pretty similar.
Then we can extrapolate for the first time. Thought experiment: if Tumblr held a contest and Undertale and RBY put up similar percentages on SMB3/SMW, wouldn't you expect them to be competitive? Now, I know the response is, this is different because its a rally. But it IS a rally right now and SMW isn't getting utterly destroyed, not worse that SMB3 against Pokemon. If being the target of the rally gives a big boost and Pokemon achieved the same percentage without a rally, that would lead us to the conclusion that RBY is naturally a lot stronger than UT on Tumblr and UT is only matching its numbers through being the named target of the rally. What you really need is not the claim that being the named target of a rally gives a big boost, but that it makes your percentage more static. That may be true, but its fairly clear that backfire rate isn't totally static and does vary. The gap between Pokemon and SMW over there dwarfs the gap between SMW and Fallout here. If backfire rates are static such that 2 points of strength gets you 1 point of BFR, that pushes BFR to around 40% and Undertale is probably cooked. Even at 3 to 1, it looks competitive. Imagine someone coming on Gamefaqs and rallying for Chrono Trigger. CT is way more popular here than almost everywhere, so you probably get a low backfire rate against most things. You may even get a low backfire rate against something like FFX! But what if you rally for CT on Gamefaqs against OOT, this site's favorite game? Wouldn't you expect a big backfire rate? RBY and SMW are close on this site, while SMW and Fallout 3 are not. It's a mistake to extend this to Tumblr, where it looks to be patently not true. Pokemon was the most reblogged thing on Tumblr last year, so it's not unfair to compare it to OOT or FFVII on this site. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Well,
we saw this once with Draven. Once he was way ahead against Mewtwo and
Sephiroth, they let the rally die and Draven dropped from 51% all the
way down to 45%. Pretty sure he lost the ASV outright to Sephiroth even though Sephy was in 3rd. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Well, even a modest decrease in reblog rate probably significantly weakens the rally seeing as these things don't grow linearly. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Back to big gains --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Did anyone here really expect Undertale to lose to Super Mario World, or was that just something Undertale fans kept saying? --- 3DS FC: 4382 - 2449 - 5707 IGN: Anthony |
I
imagine some people legitimately thought SMW had a chance. But at the
same time, there were definitely some Undertale fans that were
pretending to think SMW had a chance when they really thought it didn't. --- No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585. Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest! |
Team Rocket Elite posted... I imagine some people legitimately thought SMW had a chance. But at the same time, there were definitely some Undertale fans that were pretending to think SMW had a chance when they really thought it didn't. I wasn't aware this board had mindreaders on it! --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
Dabrikishaw15 posted... Did anyone here really expect Undertale to lose to Super Mario World, or was that just something Undertale fans kept saying? We felt that SMW had the strength and backfire rate to win...IF the number of rallied votes stayed the same as last match. We also weren't sure what the max potential was for Undertale on tumblr. Obviously it has continued to grow, so SMW didn't have a chance. The question for next round will be to see just how many rallied votes tumblr can add on. There were 40k against Fallout and looks like 55k today, and both those matches were over at the end so the rallying slowed down. While this is less of an issue on tumblr than Reddit (I.e. tumblr takes longer to get going and longer to slow down) it still makes sense that tumblr's potential added votes today were more like 70k. So if we assume a steady increase from round to round, we can guess that tumblr can add potentially 85k-90k votes in the next round. If that happens (with GameFAQs votes anywhere from 45k-50k) then the match is a foregone conclusion. Aside from a crazy backfire rate (I.e. at least 40%) Pokemon wont have a chance. Undertale's trends as charted from round to round will give us a better idea of just how close a final will be against OoT. --- Every day the rest of your life is changed forever. (edited 12/1/2015 7:24:50 PM)report |
UltimaterializerX posted... I wasn't aware this board had mindreaders on it! I'm not a heel I swear --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Favorites! Winners in bold. Summer 2002: Mario Summer 2003: Link Spring 2004: Final Fantasy 7 Summer 2004: Cloud Villains: Sephiroth Summer 2005: Samus Series: Final Fantasy Summer 2006: Samus Summer 2007: Link Summer 2008: Link Fall 2009: Final Fantasy 7 Winter 2010: Link Game of the Decade: Brawl Rivalry: Link/Ganon Fall 2013: Link BGE3: Ocarina of Time Someone help me with the ones I forget. But yeah the favorite often loses. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen (edited 12/1/2015 7:52:40 PM)report |
Dabrikishaw15 posted... Did anyone here really expect Undertale to lose to Super Mario World, or was that just something Undertale fans kept saying? it's amazing that such a plucky underdog was just barely able to snag the win from the veritable Goliath that is Super Mario World. With only some non-representative whiner/troll topics to point to and a meager several tens of thousands of outside votes they were able to knock the villainous Final Fantasy-game-that-always-wins down from its pedestal into the abyss below! --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Fall
2009 was FF7. Summer 2005 was Samus, I'm pretty sure. if it was Crono,
it was only because he didn't have to face Mario or Samus until the
final. GOTD was probably FFX. --- xyzzy |
I
think the thing that gets people is that Link is, under normal
circumstances, the strongest character and the only realistic choice
when making or discussing the bracket, so it feels like he always wins.
When he doesn't, it's been through flukey, outside interference that is
impossible to predict or consider. So even if he doesn't win as often as
people think, he still 'always wins,' you know? No normal character
ever beats him. So that's where the 99% stuff comes from. --- satoru iwata |
And
yes, I was worried Undertale would lose today because I thought the
rally had a vote ceiling and higher vote totals would ruin it. Happy to
be wrong on that one. I'm also happy to be on the side of people acting
polite. The way Board 8 acted today was a disgrace, and I'm especially
disappointed if people here were truly sending rape/death threats at
people. That's bush league garbage and adults should know better. If it beats RBY, it probably wins the contest. It really comes down to whether tumblr is willing to vote against their favorite game. Nick's group doesn't have the numbers if CT gets there (which is so crazy to say about 27000 people), FF7 is really easy to rally against, and Ocarina is being anti-voted for being the Yankees and winning too much. The only game listed here I like better is FF7, but it losing makes for a better storyline. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
GOTD was the winner of Melee/Brawl IMO. That was a complete crapshoot going in but as the matches went on Brawl became favored. |
UltimaterializerX posted... especially disappointed if people here were truly sending rape/death threats at people Really hope that wasn't someone from B8. Really disgusting. Wouldn't put it past a few of our worst posters, though. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
guru: 2009 games: ff7 171, oot 36 GOTD: brawl 87, ffx 79, melee 74, majora 3 --- xyzzy |
Guru favorite was Brawl in that contest. Alright so I edited it and bolded the winners. 6 favorites won in 15 contests, with the current contest not finished yet. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
LordoftheMorons posted... UltimaterializerX posted...especially disappointed if people here were truly sending rape/death threats at people I'm hoping it was just some awful trolls and not the regulars. Saw the blog post and just got heartsick. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
blog post? actually don't even show me. we've calmed down and can pretend it never happened for another week. --- xyzzy |
All I saw was what MWC did but you can't blame B8 as a whole for that. We don't even like the guy --- **R.O.B.A.Z.O.I.D** (On mobile) |
LeonhartFour posted... I know Link had like 40% of brackets site-wide to win in 2004 or something absurd considering Cloud had won the year before. Interesting. Er...where on the site are you getting this from? >_> --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
FFVII
was the favorite in 2009 because LttP was almost certainly supposed to
be there. Not as many were as certain that FFX would be there. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
I
know most people here don't actually do the Tumblr thing, but I've been
at work all day and I'm going through my dash which I haven't been able
to check since about 12:30. ....Board 8 is all over my dash. I have yet to see a single rally post show up, but posts about B8 topics and posts are everywhere. --- "I'll admit that I made one or two sarcastic remarks in this topic, but in all serious I akin Undertale to fascism." |
creativename posted... Interesting. http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/8?fields=all&sort=pollid&type=DESC --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
The
fact that SMW held up better than Fallout despite a larger rally is
encouraging, and shows that Undertale is susceptible to trends and the
strength of its opponents to some degree. Pokemon is in the best position to take advantage of this variability in the rally's effectiveness, but to what extent the vote leeching will happen is anyone's guess- plus who knows where the Tumblr vote ceiling really is. --- Christopher Christopher Christopher Christopher |
