GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1229
I
really don't think the backfire rate will be that large. I've seen a
lot of people posting that even though they think Undertale and SMW are
of comparable quality (or even prefer SMW!) they're still voting for
Undertale. The rallies heavily prime them to vote for Undertale even if
they may have voted for the other game had they found the poll on their
own. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
The
backfire is already pretty substantial though- just look at how many
raw votes SMW is getting. The claim has been made that it's
counterrallies rather than backfire. I don't find that satisfactory in
explaining SMW's outsize votals, and to the extent there is
counterrallying here, RBY and OOT will do more. Draven was being projected for something like 95% of the rallied votes against MMX and Ryu. The backfire rate still rose skyward when he faced Link (and Snake/Samus too I think). Draven lost to both Link+Shepard and Snake+Samus despite being able to easily 60/40 a gamefaqs poll on his own. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. (edited 12/1/2015 4:30:02 PM)report |
I'm
still holding onto hope that Pokemon can pull it off. But it's scary
seeing Undertale getting this many votes against SMW. It's clear that
many of those votes are from people who haven't played Undertale and are
only voting because someone they're following on Tumblr told them to,
or to piss off Board 8. --- "This place has a nice view of Hod. And also... I promised someone." - Asch, Tales of the Abyss |
I
dunno, someone less lazy than me can analyze the numbers to see if
Undertale spikes actually coincide with (smaller) SMW spikes (as they
would if the backfire rate was decent), but it didn't look like it when
eyeballing the numbers last night. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
What if Undertale just SFFs Pokemon --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
The
spikes on a 5 minute level are mostly random variation. Better to look
at hours. I'll probably analyse it later tonight, if no one else gets
to it first. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
OrangeCrush980 posted... It's clear that many of those votes are from people who haven't played Undertale and are only voting because someone they're following on Tumblr told them to, or to piss off Board 8. Source? |
ZeldaTPLink posted... Source? 47k votes and counting is a ton for a game that only sold 300k-400k. --- "This place has a nice view of Hod. And also... I promised someone." - Asch, Tales of the Abyss |
The
Pokemon backfire rate isn't going to matter. Tumblr aren't voting
Undertale because it's their favourite game ever, they're voting it
because the whole community is banding together to support a bandwagon. I
guarantee most of these voters haven't even played Undertale, heck most
probably haven't heard of it before the rally. Undertale is a brilliant game, but you're delusional if you think the majority of the voters have even played it. --- My butt was devastated by raytan. 3DS FC: 4725-7987-5535 |
Nah,
if they never heard of Undertale, they won't be following
Undertale-centric blogs. I certainly haven't 'played' it yet, but
watched enough videos to know that it is brilliant, thus my vote for it. |
They
won't be following the Undertale blogs, but they might very well be
following people who follow Undertale blogs and repost the rally --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
What percentage of the rallied votes would you say are going to SMW? Is it significantly higher than what Fallout 3 got? --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
kaneza201 posted... Nah, if they never heard of Undertale, they won't be following Undertale-centric blogs. I certainly haven't 'played' it yet, but watched enough videos to know that it is brilliant, thus my vote for it. I think one of the bigger Undertale reblogs last round was from a Dark Souls fan tumblr so who knows. |
Earlier
my estimates were 28% for SMW and 21% for Fallout 3. It's a rough
number, and includes counterrallies though I doubt SMW has
counterrallies bigger than Fallout's by enough to make a big difference. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
When
a person is rallied to vote, they are largely doing it as a favour to
the person who asked them to vote or to jump on a bandwagon not because
they have any personal interest in the outcome of what they are voting
for. The backfire rate won't change much just because the rallied voters
may like Pokemon more. They aren't voting to vote for their favourite
game, they are voting because they were asked to support Undertale.
We're only at round 3 and they already control over a majority of the
votes, right? It just gets worse from here. Neither Pokemon nor OoT nor
any other game in the contest stands a chance of winning. --- No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585. Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest! |
Julian_Caesar posted... So which rounds are going to have the site banner? Not to give it too much publicity (since its really the site's last ace in the hole) but Luster has made a good point that it could double the votes from GameFAQs. Probably the semifinals and finals, since those are the rounds with only one match per day. The semifinal matches will most likely have a blue site alert, which will be far less effective in boosting vote totals compared to the yellow site alert which should be used in the final. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
tgs2 posted... kaneza201 posted...Nah, if they never heard of Undertale, they won't be following Undertale-centric blogs. I certainly haven't 'played' it yet, but watched enough videos to know that it is brilliant, thus my vote for it. And here I am still waiting for a Dark Souls rally from that blog. Why isn't she fighting the good fight, man? |
Meanwhile,
Undertale had posted 3 updates under 200 intake in a row. Looks like
the main wave of the rally is finally fading somewhat. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Oh
shoot, I just realized. If Undertale beats CT....I may have to vote
against the game that beat CT. I normally always vote for whoever beats
Crono to maximize his place in the extrapolated standings. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
The
people pointing out that most of the Undertale voters have never played
the game are nailing it on the head. Kids nowadays (really dating
myself here) don't actually play video games. They just watch the latest
jerkoff idiot that can't go 30 seconds without needing a cut play the
game on youtube. People have been saying that various things will be the
death of gaming (gamergate idiots, artsy fartsy games that have no
substance, death of AAA publishers, DLC and mobile gaming), but the real
threat to gaming is the fact that kids aren't actually playing games
anymore. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy -trancer1 lol xstats |
No way
anyone should be counting out Pokemon next round. It's literally doing
better on Sonic 2 than OoT did on Suikoden II, and Pokemon has far more
counterrally potential than Mario. If Undertale beats Pokemon, then yeah, it will easily win the entire contest. But Pokemon will be a very formidable obstacle. --- Now crack that combination: 27 99 23. |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted... The people pointing out that most of the Undertale voters have never played the game are nailing it on the head. Kids nowadays (really dating myself here) don't actually play video games. They just watch the latest jerkoff idiot that can't go 30 seconds without needing a cut play the game on youtube. People have been saying that various things will be the death of gaming (gamergate idiots, artsy fartsy games that have no substance, death of AAA publishers, DLC and mobile gaming), but the real threat to gaming is the fact that kids aren't actually playing games anymore. This is kinda true. My friend has watched an entire walkthrough of RDR but hasn't played it. When I offered him the game he said 'Nah I've watched the entire game' |
With
3975 votes during the 7:00-8:00 PM hour, this match would be on track
for 103762 votes if the vote totals from the last hour were maintained
for the last 4 hours of this match. 100000 votes won't happen since the
rally is losing traction and we are probably on track for maybe
97000-98000 votes. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
SMW may be able to get a cut in fairly soon. Gains of only 16 and 21 posted recently. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Tried doing a lazy one update estimate of the BFR Got a negative number Oops --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Gain
of 11 on that update. Yeah, I think SMW will likely get a bunch of
cuts near the end of this match, but the lead will be too much to make
that comeback. Actually, that was the updater picking up incorrect vote totals on that 8:05 PM update. In reality, it was a 34 vote gain. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! (edited 12/1/2015 5:07:22 PM)report |
Even
if the ralliers completely stopped doing anything now (just letting the
current rally posts stand with no new reblogs/upvotes/retweets) I'm
pretty sure SMW is too far in the hole to climb out. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
SMW is probably doomed even if all Undertale votes are blocked for the rest of the match. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
SMW
may be able to lose by less than Fallout though. And, if we're really
lucky, it'll lose by less than Snake lost to Link in 2008. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
That SM64 pic is going to kill my bracket. --- "The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima raytan: Champ without picking the champ |
Don't think the pic is going to affect the match too much Rally spillover might though. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
The match pic makes me *more* likely to vote for SM64, tbqh. --- "What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!" This is Yesmar. Congrats to CBIX Guru Winner *Raytan*! (edited 12/1/2015 5:25:09 PM)report |
Not sure where all this TP talk is coming from, SM64 has this match on lockdown. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy -trancer1 lol xstats |
I
think any TP win is reliant on rally spillover; wouldn't be surprised
if that match is 53/47 or something without outside influence, so it
could be affected. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
So much for Undertale slowing down. --- NEW YORK METS - 2015 National League Champions |
TP
could win if rally spillover is particularly severe, I suppose, but
this match gives me SMB1/Zelda 1 vibes. Yeah this is GameFAQS, and this
is Zelda, but SM64 is too respected and monumental in the industry to
lose to something like Twilight Princess. --- "What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!" This is Yesmar. Congrats to CBIX Guru Winner *Raytan*! |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted... The people pointing out that most of the Undertale voters have never played the game are nailing it on the head. Kids nowadays (really dating myself here) don't actually play video games. They just watch the latest jerkoff idiot that can't go 30 seconds without needing a cut play the game on youtube. People have been saying that various things will be the death of gaming (gamergate idiots, artsy fartsy games that have no substance, death of AAA publishers, DLC and mobile gaming), but the real threat to gaming is the fact that kids aren't actually playing games anymore. This actually blows my mind. I've never watched a full LP in my life and will never see the appeal in it. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
You know who else isn't actually playing games anymore? GameFAQs! --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
who plays games, seriously --- Communists |
So, how does Skyrim compare to the 2010 Fallout 3 that scored 52% on Metroid Prime in terms of contest strength? --- NEW YORK METS - 2015 National League Champions |
DpObliVion posted... So, how does Skyrim compare to the 2010 Fallout 3 that scored 52% on Metroid Prime in terms of contest strength? No idea. Probably stronger? One thing that people have glossed over is that both Skyrim and Metroid Prime have never had a result that wasn't subject to tumblr spillover. We don't have an honest read on them. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted... The people pointing out that most of the Undertale voters have never played the game are nailing it on the head. Kids nowadays (really dating myself here) don't actually play video games. They just watch the latest jerkoff idiot that can't go 30 seconds without needing a cut play the game on youtube. People have been saying that various things will be the death of gaming (gamergate idiots, artsy fartsy games that have no substance, death of AAA publishers, DLC and mobile gaming), but the real threat to gaming is the fact that kids aren't actually playing games anymore. Yeah, this is true. Undertale is enormously popular to watch as a LP, especially because it's not that long a game. People bringing up sales are missing the fact that most of Undertale's fans have probably experienced the game without ever playing it. |
How
significant is the tumblr spillover anyway? Seems foolish, but I can
understand some people coming late to the party and voting. --- NEW YORK METS - 2015 National League Champions |
6k votes-ish last time --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
I
don't understand this spillover talk either. Why would the spillover
support TP over SM64? I would think the opposite. Even then, SM64 is so
much stronger than TP, that rally spillover won't be big enough to make a
difference. Especially since Undertale is winning so comfortably, I
would imagine spillover votes will be minimal. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy -trancer1 lol xstats |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted... Why would the spillover support TP over SM64? It's newer. Also someone posted a list of series popular on Tumblr and LoZ was like #2. You could definitely be right that it won't be enough though. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
TheKoolAidShoto posted... as long as SMB3 ends up above SMW in the x-stats Pretty sure R/B/Y will have to beat Undertale at this point for that to happen. Undertale isn't going to end up winning by enough to make it possible. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
I said this in another topic, but I think trying to bank on a high backfire rate isn't going to work out. For example, we saw FFVIII use the tumblr vote to put Vice City down even further, and we saw Mario getting his ass kicked by Animal Crossing. But when it was SMW vs. FFVIII, suddenly it was FFVIII getting pushed down. Point is, while Pokemon has been doing consistently well, it's going to end up under Undertale in the pecking order, just like FFVIII did against Mario. --- Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses |
ROUND 3 – DAY 4 – ALL OF DIVISION 4 Match CIII: (1) The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim vs. (5) Metroid Prime Previous Rounds The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim 66.62% against Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney 59.05% against GoldenEye 007 Metroid Prime 63.09% against The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind 57.95% against Half-Life 2 Analysis After a relative poor performance against Phoenix Wright, Skyrim was able to put up a great performance against GoldenEye 007. While a drop in strength on GoldenEye was expected its performance against Diablo II and Starcraft’s performance against Mass Effect 2 doesn’t signal a drastic drop in strength. Skyrim is still not going to win this division, but it will look a bit more respectable. Metroid Prime turned what was essentially a 50/50 match into an easy win. Of course this more likely has to do with Half-Life 2 being weaker than Metroid Prime being a lot stronger. While a Metroid Prime upset was something that could have happened pre-contest, I feel Skyrim has done enough to prove itself to be stronger. Of course it won’t be a blowout, but Skyrim should not struggle to get the win. Tumblr spill over might make this match interesting. They seem to favour both games based on their performance last round, but unless the match ends up being really close I don’t see them changing the results. charmander6000’s Bracket: TESV: Skyrim > Metroid Prime charmander6000’s Prediction: TESV: Skyrim wins, 56.87% - 43.13% Match CIV: (3) Super Mario 64 vs. (7) The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess Previous Rounds Super Mario 64 80.04% against Mario Kart 8 66.23% against Final Fantasy Tactics The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess 72.34% against Skies of Arcadia 65.27% against Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4 Analysis For a match that was always going to be relatively close I am surprised it didn’t get much debate until recently. Yes Super Mario 64 went even with Link to the Past in 2009, but that was six years ago and it’s not like Twilight Princess is that much weaker. So far Twilight Princess has shown us that it has maintained its Game of the Decade strength, though this is assuming that it was Persona 4 that has gained strength. Some people were a bit disappointed with Super Mario 64’s performance, maybe it was because they felt it was the second strongest game and while it could still be the second strongest game its performance against Final Fantasy Tactics should be enough to win this match. Remember Final Fantasy Tactics got 38% on Metal Gear Solid, even if you equal MGS with MGS3 (I doubt MGS was weaker than 2010 MGS3) it would still place Super Mario 64 above the entire Game of the Decade bracket. I doubt there will be any SFF; Mario always struggles to SFF anything Zelda. charmander6000’s Bracket: Super Mario 64 > LoZ: Twilight Princess charmander6000’s Prediction: Super Mario 64 wins, 55.55% - 44.45% --- BGE3: Today's Matches Pokemon RBYG>Sonic 2, SMW>Fallout 3 Points 123/144 |
