ZFS posted...
Hey man if this is already arally Undertale Mario is hanging on

It has like 8 notes now, for all intents and purposes it hasn't started yet
---
I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
Undyne posted...
Wait.

HM have you been drinking?

<_<


What
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satoru iwata
2797/2296/2044

Fallout 3 was at 70.35%
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xyzzy
creativename hasn't fixed the problem with his updater not tracking updates on its own for today's matches. In the meantime, I'm triggering updates myself.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
transience posted...
2797/2296/2044

Fallout 3 was at 70.35%


SMW has a 200 vote higher lead though
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
It doesn't matter if it's the truth, FF is probably much easier to rally against than Zelda outside of this site.

So a smart rallier would point to FF wins.
guys i have indisputable proof of this rally's effect and how it is greater than we ever feared

youtube's suggested videos are including undertale music for me

it knows
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
xp1337 posted...
guys i have indisputable proof of this rally's effect and how it is greater than we ever feared

youtube's suggested videos are including undertale music for me

it knows


yeah this has been happening to me lately too
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
Interesting to see how deep the Tumblr rally can go. It's not a bottomless pool but it just has to be bigger than GameFAQs.

Fast math: tumblr added 40k votes to typical match from round 2, and turned a 70-30 loss into a 55/45 win. Meaning that of their 40k votes (assuming 70-30 represents fallouts natural strength) they had to overcome a 16k deficit and added 10k to the end. Basically they flipped 26k votes so their split was more like 33/7 or about 82-18. It may be even higher if we think Fallout is naturally more like 75-25 on Undertale.

Tl;dr--unless Mario gets some major votes from tumblr in the rally, even a natural strength of 80-20 isn't enough to win. Heck even a 85-15 won't be enough if the rally gets bigger than it was last round.
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Every day the rest of your life is changed forever.
yep, that's part of the huge vote totals. the question is, are people just up late to watch it or is this a sustained vote increase now that we're into round 3? or is this tumblr already trying to interfere?
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xyzzy
No offense, it's just that your last few posts have been a little tipsy.
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"I'll admit that I made one or two sarcastic remarks in this topic, but in all serious I akin Undertale to fascism."
Well he is Heroic Margarita.
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http://i.imgur.com/M1heX2g.jpg
RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :(
Everyone should be drunk when a GameFAQs Contest battle begins.
---
Video Games are pretty cool.
My iPhone is a magical device that fights against me
---
satoru iwata
(edited 11/30/2015 9:25:54 PM)report
3277/2678/2437

Fallout 3 at 69.80%
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour posted...
Julian_Caesar posted...
Well that's interesting. SMW has a much bigger lead than Fallout did at the 10min mark. With a similar percentage. That implies that the rally has already started but Mario is doing as well WITH a rally as Fallout was doing BEFORE the rally.

I think?


Just means the vote totals are noticeably higher.


Yeah but if a rally is already in progress then we should expect it to favor Undertale a lot more than it is doing. Unless Mario is stealing some of the tumblr votes, which is the only way he can win.
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Every day the rest of your life is changed forever.
ZFS posted...
My iPhone is a magical device that fights against me


I saw that original post
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
You saw nothing
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satoru iwata
why can't the site banner or whatever start now, two matches be damned
At 25 min:
SMW - 1173
Fallout - 965

SMW's lead is a little more than 20% bigger.
---
September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.
transience posted...
yep, that's part of the huge vote totals. the question is, are people just up late to watch it or is this a sustained vote increase now that we're into round 3? or is this tumblr already trying to interfere?


Vote totals were already higher in the first 2 days of round 3 when compared to the last 4 divisions of round 2 (which didn't have any Tumblr rally spillover votes). I made this post a few hours ago suggesting reasons why vote totals have increased when we switched over to round 3:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/72910821/837970992
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
I guess these rallies are punishment for staying in the past and not liking newer games.
---
Video Games are pretty cool.
(edited 11/30/2015 9:27:42 PM)report
1337gamerpr0 posted...
why can't the site banner or whatever start now, two matches be damned


Yeah this would actually make a huge difference
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Every day the rest of your life is changed forever.
Julian_Caesar posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
Julian_Caesar posted...
Well that's interesting. SMW has a much bigger lead than Fallout did at the 10min mark. With a similar percentage. That implies that the rally has already started but Mario is doing as well WITH a rally as Fallout was doing BEFORE the rally.

I think?


Just means the vote totals are noticeably higher.


Yeah but if a rally is already in progress then we should expect it to favor Undertale a lot more than it is doing. Unless Mario is stealing some of the tumblr votes, which is the only way he can win.


The rally has 30 notes and only half of those are reblogs.

Even if we assume not everyone reblogs, like 25 people have seen that post in the world so far <_<
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"I'll admit that I made one or two sarcastic remarks in this topic, but in all serious I akin Undertale to fascism."
If you are arguing that this is Pre-Rally Pokemon RBY is doing more on Sonic 2 than Mario World did 11 years ago.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1638-division-16-round-2-sonic-the-hedgehog-2-vs-super-mario

I feel like a RBY/SMW match might end up similarly to the SMB3 match pre-rally.
(edited 11/30/2015 9:29:26 PM)report
1337gamerpr0 posted...
why can't the site banner or whatever start now, two matches be damned


I bet Allen is going to start using site alerts in the semifinals with only one match running per day. With the site alert, we will get a natural increase in GameFAQs votes which would kill Undertale's chances of winning its semifinal or final match (if it gets that far).

I will try to talk Allen into running the site alerts for the quarterfinals as well, since that would only increase the total number of site alerts from 3 to 5.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
like seriously, if a banner will be up in the semis+finals why not do it earlier too?

4 matches might be much but 2 should be fine
(edited 11/30/2015 9:29:59 PM)report
get him to put it up today, Luster!
:30

Mario World - +115 votes
Fallout 3 - +160 votes
---
xyzzy
Undyne posted...
Julian_Caesar posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
Julian_Caesar posted...
Well that's interesting. SMW has a much bigger lead than Fallout did at the 10min mark. With a similar percentage. That implies that the rally has already started but Mario is doing as well WITH a rally as Fallout was doing BEFORE the rally.

I think?


Just means the vote totals are noticeably higher.


Yeah but if a rally is already in progress then we should expect it to favor Undertale a lot more than it is doing. Unless Mario is stealing some of the tumblr votes, which is the only way he can win.


The rally has 30 notes and only half of those are reblogs.

Even if we assume not everyone reblogs, like 25 people have seen that post in the world so far <_<


The first two matches in this round drew 2100+ and 2200+ votes at the 20min mark. This one got 2800. I find it hard to believe there isn't at least a several-hundred-vote rally going on right now.
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Every day the rest of your life is changed forever.
Updated Top 10

Top 10 Most Impressive Losers
1. Fallout 3 – Round 2 – 36146
2. Super Mario Bros. 3 – Round 2 – 29362
3. Mass Effect 3 – Round 1 – 27162
4. Uncharted 2 – Round 2 – 24692
5. Final Fantasy VIII – Round 2 – 24416
6. LoZ: Wind Waker – Round 3 – 21653
7. Starcraft – Round 2 – 21228
8. Half-Life 2 – Round 2 – 20959
9. Fire Emblem: Awakening – Round 2 – 20950
10. GoldenEye 007 – Round 2 – 20802
---
BGE3: Today's Matches Pokemon RBYG>Sonic 2, SMW>Fallout 3
Points 123/144
The reddit one probably has more of an immediate response; wouldn't be surprised if something like 100 people had seen it.
---
I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
11/30/2015 9:33:43 PM#383
All this anxiety over a doubling. SMW is fine.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest
"F*** Draven." -SBAllen
Meh, if undertale wins the whole thing the only reason why id be upset is because its too new of a game, and opinions/excitement on it are gonna be larger. In 2 years undertale would get slaughtered in one of these contests whenever another game becomes the indie fav of the current moment. Its not that the game is bad, because its fun, but most of the people who currently think its the best game ever will be moving it down the list very quickly
The first two matches in this round drew 2100+ and 2200+ votes at the 20min mark. This one got 2800. I find it hard to believe there isn't at least a several-hundred-vote rally going on right now.

It's more likely people from the previous round coming back to vote again.
---
BGE3: Today's Matches Pokemon RBYG>Sonic 2, SMW>Fallout 3
Points 123/144
UltimaterializerX posted...
All this anxiety over a doubling. SMW is fine.


there is no anxiety because we all know what's going to happen and you do too
---
http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
All this anxiety over a doubling. SMW is fine.

Just like Fallout 3
---
BGE3: Today's Matches Pokemon RBYG>Sonic 2, SMW>Fallout 3
Points 123/144
through 30 minutes:

CT/FFX-2933
Melee/KH2-2955
FF6/WW-3054
FF7/SSB4-3049?

yeah there's no way the rally isn't already here
(edited 11/30/2015 9:35:37 PM)report
UltimaterializerX posted...
All this anxiety over a doubling. SMW is fine.


Mathematics tend to disagree. But the wild card is how many votes Mario can take from tumblr users.
---
Every day the rest of your life is changed forever.
Undertale already pulling a 40%+ update huh
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
looks like Fallout 3's lead is going to cross Mario World's soon
---
xyzzy
If there's already a lot of rallying, that's good for SMW. Only, how much rallying was there in first hour of the Fallout match? Are they moving faster today?
---
September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.
11/30/2015 9:36:06 PM#393
LeonhartFour posted...
UltimaterializerX posted...
All this anxiety over a doubling. SMW is fine.


there is no anxiety because we all know what's going to happen and you do too


No guarantee of that, but I am definitely rooting for it.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest
"F*** Draven." -SBAllen
Undertale already doing nearly 42% updates. Its gonna just get worse too
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http://steamsignature.com/card/0/76561197979294707.png
percentagewise, we didn't see huge cuts in Fallout 3 until 1am.
---
xyzzy
Julian_Caesar posted...
Mathematics tend to disagree. But the wild card is how many votes Mario can take from tumblr users.


We saw this very game collapsing against motherf***ing Animal Crossing, and that wasn't even the focus of the rally.
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Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses
Undertale trying to surge already. I don't think that's good for SMW at all, as the peak of the rally hasn't even yet.
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3DS FC: 1805-2178-2522 NNID: Scarlettail
red sox 777 posted...
If there's already a lot of rallying, that's good for SMW. Only, how much rallying was there in first hour of the Fallout match? Are they moving faster today?


it took Undertale till the 1 am mark to do as good of an update percentage wise as it just did at 0:35 against Fallout 3
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http://steamsignature.com/card/0/76561197979294707.png
not sure if I'm encouraged by Mario World still moving forward or not. in one sense it's good that it isn't getting ripped apart like Fallout 3 did.. but at the same time, it looks like the rally will be that much stronger this time 'round.
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xyzzy
Yeah if Undertale makes actual cuts at 1am then this one is probably over.

Who knows maybe they will take the lead early and get overconfident and then Mario strikes with the evening vote :D
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Every day the rest of your life is changed forever.

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