GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1224
Team Rocket Elite posted... I'm made comments in the past about how funny it would be if RBY made it to and beat Undertale by leeching off the Undertale rally, but there is no way I am getting anywhere near that train. Watching it crash while on it would just be too heartbreaking for me. Also, it would probably mean RBY got heavily rallied and that's something I'm against even if it is Pokemon acting in self defense. We can agree to disagree here. It's kind of simple, you don't like rallies with multi-matches (especially if a personal favorite is involved), and I like rallies that are legal. The only one that legitimately pissed me off was when Starcraft was truly cheating against Melee in 2004. The rest have been fine. Actually I guess Draven really pissed me off when the site went down, plus the invasion. I love League, but reddit acting the way they did (not that we were any better, in fairness) was in poor taste. That was bull then and it's still bull now. I like that Draven won, but there's always the 23 hour excuse. Hating on the Undertale rally is supremely unfair. Allen knows the numbers behind the scenes, and it's kind of obvious that we're just passionate fans that want the game to do well: SBAllen posted... This one is more about a passion for a new game that people love and less "hey we have a bazillion people playing this game let's just flood this contest!" Not our fault if it affects other matches. We didn't pick the format. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
UltimaterializerX posted... You're assuming Undertale even gets that far. Beating Mario World will take a small miracle, and then you're asking it to pull votes against Pokemon from TUMBLR. Come on bro. LOL at small miracle :) TRE is correct, that ship has sailed. Undertale will be a large Oracle favorite. I actually think SMW has an outside shot, because Tumblr has a large random element on just when a rally catches on. If SNES games really are so strong then SMW may be able to put up a much higher number on Fallout 3 then we would've guessed pre-contest. I think Undertale will not boost as much between rounds 2 and 3 as it did between 1 and 2. But I do think it will boost. Both in intrinsic GameFAQs strength, and the rally being bigger. But I think it is conceivable that SMW gets extremely lucky with the rally timing. Quite doubtful, but conceivable. Anyway the rally spillover is just horrid. How can *anyone* think rally spillover is a good thing?? --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
*checks matches* lmao chrono trigger CT could win this contest and I'd be perfectly fine with that. Undertale > CT would be like a knife in my heart. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? |
Oh man I just realized. If FFVI pulls off the upset against FFVII and then in the quarterfinals the Undertale ralliers blindly side with the FF name over Chrono Trigger because most of them haven't played either, we may have a chance at seeing FFVI > CT in a direct match. It would probably be the dumbest upset ever. Not because of the result but the reason behind it. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
I really do want to see VI beat VII in a contest but I can't see that now with both the remake and Cloud in Smash being a thing. --- Video Games are pretty cool. (edited 11/29/2015 12:10:20 AM)report |
Team Rocket Elite posted... I'm made comments in the past about how funny it would be if RBY made it to and beat Undertale by leeching off the Undertale rally, but there is no way I am getting anywhere near that train. Watching it crash while on it would just be too heartbreaking for me. Also, it would probably mean RBY got heavily rallied and that's something I'm against even if it is Pokemon acting in self defense. Curious, why would you be against a self defense Pokenon rally? It's funny to me that if Undertale vs Pokemon happens as seems not quite inevitable but close to it, save_us.rat will be back in action! --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Melee is looking TERRIBLE woww... --- >_______________> |
transience posted... Galaxy sucked Eh, it's not that bad. I'll take Galaxy's loss as points for Super Metroid, I don't think it sucked. TTYD vs. ToS was quite debated, I don't think that's bad either. I think it comes down to Galaxy 2 and Mario Maker for his games that sucked. Count SMB3 too if you'd like, I just think Pokemon is better than most people think. Super Mario RPG is impressing even. --- Ctesjbuvf posting on his phone. |
You guys imagine how strong pokemon rby is if SMB3 was still roughly around CT levell... --- >_______________> |
FFX
is barely winning the UK. Godly showing by CT no matter if FFX's
dropped or not. Melee is likely done next round with high 50s on KHII. --- We are living our lives Abound with so much information |
I love that some game I've never played is totally f***ing my bracket. --- XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak PSN ID - Kudaark Steam Name : skaalfa |
Team Rocket Elite posted... UltimaterializerX posted...Multiple matches is the best shakeup these contests have ever had though. I really hated how Rounds 4 and Quarterfinals were changed from 1 match/day to 2. Completely kills hype on debated matches and makes the contest feel extremely rushed just to save 6 days for 'important stuff'. Add that to the rally spillover issue and I can't help but feel disappointed about this year's contest. |
When I saw this result, my first thought was "Red must be so happy" lol :) I picked CT to the finals in my bracket, but of course there was a great deal of fanboyism involved. I have CT with 63-something in the Oracle today, a little bit over my estimate for what CT needs to be the favorite over FFVII. I guess this one probably ends around 65%, so I'll have undershot it a bit, but probably still good enough for a top 5, to make me 3/3 for getting top 5 picks in CT matches (hooray fanboyism!). Next round, I'll be looking for CT to outdo what FFVII did in 2004. I'm pretty convinced that both SSBM and CT majorly overperformed in FFVII on 2004 as the site struggled against the inevitability of the FFVII win, but that number is probably pretty accurate for FFVII vs. SSBM now, with FFVII having weakened by about the amount of the overperformance. As for OOT.........it is a dream, and such a beautiful one. If this ends at 65% I think we're still a little bit short on natural strength. OOT broke 65% on FFX with Brawl and MGS4 in the poll, so it's probably more like a doubling in fair conditions. I know people are criticizing OOT for that Suikoden match but we really knew nothing about Suikoden's strength (in 2004 it ran into its single worst possible opponent, FFVII). I'm doubtful that OOT has really weakened by any appreciable amount. With a bandwagon, we can do this. But OOT will fight back hard, it's only won one contest before (less potential for anti-champion voting), and loads of people really believe it is objectively the best game ever made. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Welp Melee's sure collapsed hard. Say goodbye to that remote possibility. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Also,
some very good news from the votals department: now that we've switched
to 2 polls a day, we are getting votals about 12% higher than
yesterday, and 20% higher than last Sunday. At 5 AM: SSBM/KH2 - 13888 CT/FFX - 13730 Starcraft/Mass Effect 2 - 12324 FFVII/Halo - 11498 Last night featured a close match with some rallying, I'm not sure if the Melee rally being reported tonight is having as big an impact (I'd guess not, given Melee is following normal trends in collapsing overnight). A 20% increase in Gamefaqs votals is a very good thing for stopping Undertale. Assuming SMW or Pokemon can 80/20 Undertale on this site, that 20% votals boost translates into a gain of around 4500 votes over what it would have gotten with last round's votals. If SMW or Pokemon can 80/20 Undertale instead of 70/30 it on this site like Fallout was doing, that's an additional gain of around 7500 votes over what Fallout was getting, which would be enough for the win, unless the rally gets stronger. Of course, any increase in backfire rate is absolutely killer for the Undertale rally, and Pokemon at least will almost assuredly have a substantially higher backfire rate than Fallout. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. (edited 11/29/2015 2:43:49 AM)report |
Also,
remember when I estimated LTTP to get 58% on FFX and a bunch of people
yelled at me saying it was way too high? Well, it seems even that 42%
still overshot FFX! --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
I just checked the results. This is what I have to say: 1st match=Before the contest I thought FF X would win close. Now I am happy if it evades a doubling! 2nd match=KH 2 is doing good. Nice! CT can win the division I think right? --- Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing? |
45 minutes into the 5-6 AM hour, Melee and KH2 have gone exactly even so far this hour. KH2 might be able to win this hour! --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
the Melee rally last round was way bigger than anything ME2 or Starcraft did yesterday. that match was largely due to trends. and that's why I give Melee a shot last round. if these people are rallying in a 60/40 match, what happens when Melee is down 60/40 early? keep on knocking it down, KH2. this is a mirror match of Melee/GSC. --- xyzzy |
Well,
if they're not rallying today yet, the votals boost is coming from the
reduction in the number of polls, or people knowing we are in round 3,
or some combination of those. Which is good news, because 20% extra
Gamefaqs votes would make Gamefaqs votes outnumber Tumblr votes unless
Tumblr also ups its game substantially. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
This site isn't NintendoFAQS, SquareFAQS, RPGFAQs...it's just 90'sFAQS. This site never changes. What's the point of contests? |
Tumblr will probably just flex to whatever's needed. KH2 wins an hour by 3 votes. --- xyzzy |
Well it does makes sense. For this site at least. --- Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing? |
Safer_777 posted...
More like CT vs Undertale is becoming a hyped match. |
looks
like GSC was .6% lower than this KH2 number and that match ended 60/40.
it'll be interesting to see how much the Melee rally affects things. --- xyzzy |
RyoCaliente posted... This site isn't NintendoFAQS, SquareFAQS, RPGFAQs...it's just 90'sFAQS. If you think it's that easy to predict, I hope you enjoy the $2000 you are about to win. |
ZeldaTPLink posted... Safer_777 posted... Technically any Undertale match could be hyped. Rallies aren't really consistent, Tumblr is kinda random and we don't fully know their hierarchy. Of course the only way to know if it will be close or not is to wait for the matches, you can't predict the strength of a rally. |
According to map CT will raise more and KH 2 will drop more! Man what is going on? --- Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing? |
Tumblr
hasn't looked like it could flex whatever was needed. I don't think
any rallier ever has that much control over the rally, such that he can
summon a number of votes of his choosing, except maybe those really
depressing Pokemon rallies that kept Cloud and company around 500 votes
away from the lead all day. Tumblr in particular seems pretty organic-
it takes half a day for the rally to get going even when people were
trying to start it from the beginning. Mass Effect was 40 minutes away
from winning! I still don't like SMW's odds here, though they're better than before. Feel pretty good about Pokemon. And then CT can beat Pokemon worse than OOT beats LTTP to set up hype for the final. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
I
actually kinda like CT's chances against Undertale. if any game is
going to beat it on natural contest strength, it's CT. a lot of
Undertale/EB fans are CT fans too. --- xyzzy |
I'm joining the Undertale army after todays results --- http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/330/958/a5b.gif |
So........either Melee or FFX is the obvious Divisionwinner right? *throws bracket out of the window* Go Chrono Trigger! --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Raytan > Me |
CT seems the favorite now to tell the truth. But with rallies you never know. --- Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing? |
The
only thing I can see working in smw's favor vs tumblr is being
perceived as not as big a threat as the Big Game AAA titles that it
faced so far. --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png LongLiveraytan |
Also yesterday Bioshock won at USA but still lost with around 4%. Is this the biggest difference ever? --- Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing? |
KamikazePotato posted... And before we get too deep into the ALL NEW GAMES ARE OVERRATED rabbit hole, remember that Final Fantasy VI got this same result against Paper Mario 2. Something is up here. Yeah, TTYD obviously is stronger than FFX now, which we'll confirm once FF6 beats CT! As for Undertale vs. SMW, it's freaking Mario, which in this contest means SMW will be lucky to break 40%. --- Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy IX - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3729662 Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64 (edited 11/29/2015 4:30:06 AM)report |
To be fair there is clearly very bad sff going on here. How bad is what tells us just how strong CT is, of course. --- Hello, I'm Chris! https://media.giphy.com/media/2ZtIpjwFFjLHLNREpCU/giphy.gif |
pjbasis posted... The only thing I can see working in smw's favor vs tumblr is being perceived as not as big a threat as the Big Game AAA titles that it faced so far. good point. Might effect the "pre-planning". But once SMW shoots out to its massive early lead the rallies will come --- Started from the bottom now we here |
To be fair there is clearly very bad sff going on here. How bad is what tells us just how strong CT is, of course. Nope, R&C, DQVIII and Persona 3 all predicted Chrono Trigger would do this. --- BGE3: Today's Matches Final Fantasy X > Chrono Trigger, Super Smash Bros. Melee > Kingdom Hearts II Points 111/120 |
I don't want to be a doubting thomas but I would feel better if it had a good performance against a decent non RPG entrant. I need to see it against Melee before I'm completely sold. --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. (edited 11/29/2015 5:15:57 AM)report |
to be fair, CT's entire path is against RPGs except for Melee --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
charmander6000 posted... To be fair there is clearly very bad sff going on here. How bad is what tells us just how strong CT is, of course. Charmander I respect you but if you think no SFF is going on against Square's most powerful post PS1 game and its greatest SNES champion then <_< --- Hello, I'm Chris! https://media.giphy.com/media/2ZtIpjwFFjLHLNREpCU/giphy.gif |
people
have called for SFF after the fact twice now. not saying you're 100%
wrong but it's murdered three games now. I would not underestimate it at
this point. --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
With
all this SNES domination, I'm starting to really want to see SMW
advance and see how it does continuing on, so I'm a little sad it is
likely going down to Undertale. On the other hand, Undertale is an
interesting force in its own right and creating plenty of hype and
debate regarding matchups with RBY and potentially CT. And I'm in the Melee > CT bracket camp (Melee to the finals, in fact). I had lost confidence pre-match, and today certainly isn't helping. I feel like I should dust off my old match pic from 2004. (http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/spc2k4/spr04b60.jpg) --- NEW YORK METS - 2015 National League Champions |
Old/New Square has rarely, if ever SFF each other. --- BGE3: Today's Matches Final Fantasy X > Chrono Trigger, Super Smash Bros. Melee > Kingdom Hearts II Points 111/120 |
Melee's
lowest point was at 8am vs GSC. KH2 is still rocking its percentage now
so I think we can probably stop following that match's trends. --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
Yeah,
I wouldn't say this is major SFF, there's obviously a small degree of
it in play, but Chrono Trigger wouldn't be doing much worse if both
games were made by different companies. CT being so excluded from newer material prolly hurts its chances at SFFing newer stuff to oblivion. --- Dr voltchball - best in the world. http://i.minus.com/iN5ZHjUDyI547.gif |
KH2 does have a pretty good day votetoo, I'm surprised it did so well at night though. --- BGE3: Today's Matches Final Fantasy X > Chrono Trigger, Super Smash Bros. Melee > Kingdom Hearts II Points 111/120 |
transcience posted... to be fair, CT's entire path is against RPGs except for Melee Unless you think The Wind Waker wins the division...lol, because 63% on KOTOR looks so much better than 67% on TTYD. That Melee pic made me want to put this on: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIzvRLebY28 I think I actually prefer Brawl's version. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil (edited 11/29/2015 5:29:09 AM)report |
KH has been a night vote game this contest. it seems the kids finally grew up. which is part of why I think kh2 has boosted. --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
