GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1220
Bleh,
I hate snap estimation of percentages, but I'd expect FF6 to break 55%
on Majora's Mask. So yeah, 61/39 or thereabouts sounds right to me. e: ehhhhh Zeldafear I'll wimp out and call it 59/41 --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. (edited 11/25/2015 10:12:38 PM)report |
I'll be impressed if it goes that high. I was thinking like 56-ish but if it breaks 60, I think it has an outside shot at 7. --- xyzzy |
At
this point if Wind Waker keeps it remotely close with FF6 I'd be very
surprised. If you stopped the contest now and made me rank the Zeldas,
I'd take Link's Awakening over Wind Waker without batting an eye. --- http://i.imgur.com/M1heX2g.jpg RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :( |
Also
I never even gave metroid a chance here, so it doesn't sting as much,
but seeing myself on the leader board and knowing I had dark souls for,
like, a long time really sucks. --- Hello, I'm Chris! https://media.giphy.com/media/2ZtIpjwFFjLHLNREpCU/giphy.gif |
WarThaNemesis2 posted... I hate to bring 'characters vs. games' into this, but are there any strong characters from a series with only one popular game, where that one game isn't strong? L-Block --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
Janus5k posted... WarThaNemesis2 posted...I hate to bring 'characters vs. games' into this, but are there any strong characters from a series with only one popular game, where that one game isn't strong? If L-Block counts, so does Draven. |
Dr_Football posted... Would you consider any Kirby game strong at all? I would really like to see Kirby Super Star get a fair shake. In this "SNES overlords" era, it could really go out and pull some upsets. The problem with Kirby as a whole, however, is that the series has been primarily on handhelds - except in the 2010s, and we've seen how "well" modern Nintendo is regarded on this site. With that in mind, Kirby's Adventure is the only other Kirby title that I could see not being fodder. --- Now crack that combination: 27 99 23. |
I almost said Draven but L-Block never trailed Chie Satonaka --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
Janus5k posted... I almost said Draven but L-Block never trailed Chie Satonaka Tetris is also a lot stronger than League of Legends excluding rallies |
Super
Metroid's stealing the show, good job. Glad I got Dark Souls right,
though too bad Perfect Dark couldn't beat MGS to be here. About this time last round, it sounded like people didn't think there was a clear favorite in a hypothetical FF4/FF12-match. LoZ:MM doing better here supports my upset if those two FF-games were equal...but since Round One, we've been rediscovering the power of SNES-games. Yeesh, LoZ:MM is gonna have a hard time getting any traction in its upset when SNES games keep mowing down the rest of the contest like this. --- M E N: nominate Metal Man in 20XX! http://i.imgur.com/Dr4NAeq.png |
1337gamerpr0 posted... Janus5k posted...I almost said Draven but L-Block never trailed Chie Satonaka Yeah Tetris definitely has a much higher base strength than LoL, but I'm guessing LoL has just as much rally potential as Draven. Tetris would never be bandwagonned like L-Block was. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
I agree with the assessment that old games have always had strength but the formats masked it. I think the demographic and a slight opinion shift has helped though. --- http://www.last.fm/user/VinnyMendoza "This is all we have... when we die.." |
jacko_vdz posted... And in what universe does a Mario game struggle with Mario Kart of all things? Super Mario Kart and Mario Kart 64 would both beat every 21st century Mario, and SMG1 is the only one where this is even debatable. (But after today's result...) Super Metroid's doing about what I thought it would so that's nice to see. Of course on the other hand I was totally wrong about FEA being noticeably stronger than Xenoblade. Still confused about that one given the last character contest, I'd wonder about why FEA has done worse than its characters (or Xenoblade has done better than its characters?) but neither game is strong enough for it to be worth the energy to think about. --- The RPG Duelling League: www.rpgdl.com An unparalleled source for RPG information and discussion |
NeoElfboy posted... jacko_vdz posted...And in what universe does a Mario game struggle with Mario Kart of all things? characters=/=games also I'd imagine Smash helped Xenoblade more (and looks like my theory of 3DS games just being frauds was right, good thing Mario Maker is even more fraudulent huh) (edited 11/25/2015 10:38:30 PM)report |
I
guess Nintendo consoles hierarchy is more important than Nintendo
series hierarchy. People calling Mario a turd this year should remember
that it's just the new games flopping, which is the same for every
series. You don't see it with Zelda, Metroid, FF or the likes because their new games didn't make it, but Pokemon, Smash, MGS and Mario's newer games looked really bad. --- Ctesjbuvf posting on his phone. |
There is no way in hell Link's Awakening is stronger than The Wind Waker. All 3D Zelda games, even Skyward Sword would probably kill any 2D Zelda not named A Link to the Past. Though it's a possibility that A Link Between Worlds might be able to get past Skyward Sword but it would be close. --- Video Games are pretty cool. (edited 11/25/2015 10:46:05 PM)report |
I
think I'd take Zelda 1 over Skyward Sword but I'm starting to worry
that NES games have just fallen off a cliff. Really wish we'd had more
than SMB3 vs Age of Empires and Tumblr-influenced Pokemon to go on for
this. --- The RPG Duelling League: www.rpgdl.com An unparalleled source for RPG information and discussion |
What post-PS2 games beats Super Mario Bros 1? --- Ours is not to reason why, ours is but to do and die. |
Man Skyward Sword > Link's Awakening and Zelda 1 I'm a skeptic but I'm not crazy --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
transience posted... yeah, Wind Waker loses to FF6. no shame in that - I think FF6 is a top 7 game right now. This makes me happier than you could imagine. I'm a Square guy, with Nintendo 1a. Seeing the rivalry be so one-sided on this site for so long was so hard to watch. I want it to be debatable again. Like I picked WW > FF6 because of past history. If Square just randomly goes berserk I will not complain. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
even though SNES is looking dominant this year, do we still think FFV7 is safe? --- Started from the bottom now we here |
Haste_2 posted... Yay! Metroid has finally proved beyond a doubt that it's more than just a leecher. At the time I made the pick it was pretty much blind faith and feeling.... #3 in the Oracle and ties for #26 in the brackets? Wow! Very impressive man. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Geez,
those percentages for FFVI and Wind Waker this round were more
pronounced than I thought. FFVI got 67% on Paper Mario: The Thousand
Year Door. Wind Waker got 63%... on Star Wars: Knights of the Old
Republic. Wind Waker is going to get its doors blown off, screw Zeldafear --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
Karma Hunter posted... Man Skyward Sword > Link's Awakening and Zelda 1 I'm a skeptic but I'm not crazy Yeah you are crazy. LA would do nasty things to skyward. --- http://k09.kn3.net/1256263BF.gif |
I
don't think NES games are too weak really. SMB3 would've broken 45% on
RBY without the rally and RBY looked to possibly be our third strongest
game in 2009. --- Ctesjbuvf posting on his phone. |
haloiscoolisbak posted... even though SNES is looking dominant this year, do we still think FFV7 is safe? Depends on Undertale. If mario world or Pokemon beat it. They will build enough momentum to beat ffvii. --- http://k09.kn3.net/1256263BF.gif |
And
yeah NES games are just fine in strength. SMB/LoZ would dismantle
anything short of an upper midcarder, don't be down on them just 'cause
they got screwed out of making it in. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
SMB3's
45% on Pokemon strikes me as disappointing after Pokemon didn't look
that amazing versus Tetris. Buuut that's not a lot of evidence to go on. If SMW survives Undertale we'll get a much better feel on if there's a NES decline or not based on Pokemon vs SMW. --- The RPG Duelling League: www.rpgdl.com An unparalleled source for RPG information and discussion |
To be fair older games have been impressing, maybe Tetris got stronger? I guess we'll see. --- Hello, I'm Chris! https://media.giphy.com/media/2ZtIpjwFFjLHLNREpCU/giphy.gif |
If SMW survives Undertale SMW impressing on RBY wouldn't mean bad things for SMB3. On the contrary, it would imply extremely good things for it! --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
I wonder if SMW beating Undertale would give it contest savior votes --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
A bit late on this but as far as Kirby games go, I'd put Super Star > 64 > Epic Yarn > everything else. --- Currently playing: Dark Souls 2 |
I think the NES game has a chance of being #2 in the Kirby hierarchy. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
The
rally was clearly having little to no effect at the very beginning,
with how FO3 was kicking Undertale around. And SMB3 was already losing
cleanly. I don't think you can argue that SMB3 would have won that
without the rally. If SMW beats Pokemon by a notable margin I don't see how you can draw any conclusion except that it's quite a lot stronger than SMB3 now, which wasn't the case at all, say, a decade ago, and would certainly point to NES games getting significantly weaker. If Pokemon beats SMW then maybe Pokemon is just beastly (and Tetris has somehow improved with the new, smaller, site makeup, certainly possible). --- The RPG Duelling League: www.rpgdl.com An unparalleled source for RPG information and discussion |
the rally only had little effect at the start if you believe ME3 could put about 45% on Fallout 3 I'm...not buying that, at all |
There was definitely a rally. It was just terribly weak. Fallout would have had a 10-12k vote lead without rallies at thst point. --- http://k09.kn3.net/1256263BF.gif |
That's
ignoring the possibility that Undertale might perform better after a
miraculous victory in round 1 even without any rallying. And while Pokemon was winning it wasn't exactly a convincing victory. It was like 52% with Mario stalling occasionally showing that it might have a shot. Unfortunately the rally showed up before we could even enter the night vote so there's no real saying how that match would have gone --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. (edited 11/25/2015 11:28:09 PM)report |
NeoElfboy posted... The rally was clearly having little to no effect at the very beginning, with how FO3 was kicking Undertale around. This is the kind of silly garbage that belies a lack of understanding of how weak Undertale truly is on GameFAQs. Fallout 3's percentage on Undertale at the 15 minute mark, ostensibly before any rally effect, was 70.31%. Mass Effect 3's percentage on Undertale at the 15 minute mark, definitively before any rally effect (because the rally started much later), was 65.57%. Assuming those two Undertales have the same amount of strength, that would mean Mass Effect 3 scores 43.11% on Fallout 3. And that's about as good a projection you're going to get for FO3 that match, right up until the end when Mass Effect 3 is projected to flat-out beat it. The idea of trash like Mass Effect 3 even breaking 40% on a Fallout 3 still basking in the release of Fallout 4 defies belief. That rally was going from nearly the beginning - the difference was merely in the magnitude, which is how you go from SMB3 having 48% to not even breaking 40% by the end of the match. I don't mind the idea that SMB3 would have lost that match. But this stupidity that the match wasn't tainted by the rally virtually from the outset needs to go. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
Then00bAvenger posted... That's ignoring the possibility that Undertale might perform better after a miraculous victory in round 1 even without any rallying. I can buy this; Unrallied Draven when the rallies got shut down against Mewtwo/Sephiroth was in a completely different league than the Draven who was getting blown out by Jak and Chie, for sure. But still - we know that rally was happening from basically the beginning of that match. We have proof. It was a known fact that it was happening, right from the outset. Suggesting otherwise is revisionist history. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
Fallout just isn't as strong as it was 5 years ago. Also as bad as thr ne3 ending wad at first. The game is still awesome. ME2 would probably be fallout 3 level now --- http://k09.kn3.net/1256263BF.gif |
The rally didn't show up until a bit later for Pokemon. Pokemon got the board vote. --- Your signature is automatically appended to the bottom of every post you make. Your 'About Me' message is displayed on your profile page. You can include any in |
Even
if there was a rally from the start, it wasn't a major factor. The
rally started to really be noticeable at the one hour mark. On the
update prior to that, the match only had around 4300 votes compared to
the average of 3900 votes for a Monday on the previous two weeks. And
those were round 1 matches which tend to have lower totals anyway while
this is a round 2 match that was highly anticipated so some of that 400
difference is going to be unrelated to a rally. Then take into account
that 100% of those votes are not going to go for the rallied game. Not
even close. You're not looking at much of a difference. Absolute best case scenario, Mario 3 and Pokemon would be 50-50 without any rally. --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. (edited 11/25/2015 11:47:57 PM)report |
Wait, do people think Super Metroid is beating MM based on these results? This is a great showing for MM. --- David Hayter Seriously, Who in the hell is "Draven?" (Sounds like a draggy crow.) |
Oh,
I'm not suggesting SMB3 would be doing better than 50/50, especially in
the early going of a match like that. But I'm assuming that we're not
just talking about the first hour given that the standard line has been
"oh, well I guess we all know SMB3 was on track to lose 55/45 before the
rally." That's using a benchmark hours and hours into the match, at a
point when the rally was very obviously having a ridiculously huge
impact. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. (edited 11/25/2015 11:53:19 PM)report |
1 hour mark of Undertale/ME3: 4234 votes 1 hour mark of Undertale/Fallout 3: 4663 votes There was barely an effect. I think RBY wins that match either way, but without the rally there was no guarantee. Mario 3 was stalling with it. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
429 votes is not a "ridiculously huge impact". That's the difference from round 1 to 2 with Undertale. One hour into Draven/Jak/Chie: 5758 votes One hour into Draven/Ryu/X: 11274 votes One hour into Draven/Link/Shepard: 13999 votes This is what a rally looks like. Total votes are the indicator. The rally was flat-out not there yet with Undertale. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
The vote numbers give a good idea on what effect the rally was having that early, yes. The idea that ME3 could get 40% on FO3 doesn't strike me as farfetched at all. We don't have much direct evidence on ME3's strength, but my kneejerk is you're not giving it enough respect. I really doubt FO3 could double it, for instance. I mean sure maybe SMB3's as strong as 50/50 on Pokemon in a rally-less world, but that feels optimistic to me. (I'd like it to be the case, SMB3 losing was a big disappointment for me. But I don't think it is.) --- The RPG Duelling League: www.rpgdl.com An unparalleled source for RPG information and discussion |
UltimaterializerX posted... 429 votes is not a "ridiculously huge impact". That's the difference from round 1 to 2 with Undertale. Comparing every rally with Draven will have very few rallies look like rallies at all. Regardless, you miss my point; before the hour was up SMB3 was still stalling with RBY. By the time RBY hits the 55% mark it's just over four hours into the match, when Undertale had 36.41% of the vote and its match's total was 2400 votes ahead of the previous round. I feel the rally made its presence felt much earlier than that, but by the time you could fairly call SMB3/RBY something on track for a 55/45 affair the impact of the rally is, yes, ridiculously huge. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
Well
the rally started to have an impact before the power hour was even
over, and trying to predict a match based entirely on the power hour
doesn't work out sometimes. Especially when Nintendo is involved, and
double especially when it's 2 Nintendo games involved. A 52-48 match at the end of the first hour isn't necessarily unshakable. I do think Pokemon would be the favorite but thinking it would reach 55% when left to its own devices seems a bit presumptuous. --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. (edited 11/26/2015 12:08:37 AM)report |
Team Rocket Elite posted... KamikazePotato posted...So...next contest let's get in Mario Kart 64. Fixed. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
