GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1219
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQeIYVM3YBM Skyrim!! ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
(Personal) question of the day: Based on the current polls, Final Fantasy Tactics vs. Persona 4 would be a 55-45 match? --- Wild raytan appeared! He chose Samus > Mario. It's... super effective? |
Yuri_LowelI posted... Averia posted...If they don't allow rallies anymore, denying LoL was a missed opportunity to have it lose against Persona 4 or maybe Halo. Imo LoL is a good game with bad implementation. Which means, the company did everything they could to cater to dudebro competitive gamers, and those in turn made the game unplayable. |
Snake/Link
was somewhat close two years ago, on the level of Cloud at least. What
would you expect Snake to get on Link this year, given what we've seen
of the MGS-series in this contest? --- Ours is not to reason why, ours is but to do and die. |
ZeldaTPLink posted... Yuri_LowelI posted...Averia posted...If they don't allow rallies anymore, denying LoL was a missed opportunity to have it lose against Persona 4 or maybe Halo. Having lol in this contest is like having madden or fifa or call of duty multiplayer. --- http://k09.kn3.net/1256263BF.gif |
Advokaiser posted... (Personal) question of the day: Probably. Mario 64 will sff zelda though so it will make p4 look worse --- http://k09.kn3.net/1256263BF.gif (edited 11/24/2015 3:38:02 PM)report |
Calintares posted... Snake/Link was somewhat close two years ago, on the level of Cloud at least. What would you expect Snake to get on Link this year, given what we've seen of the MGS-series in this contest? Snake will never ever be as popular as he was back then. I mean do you remember david hayter rallying for snake? It was so f***ing awesome. Thats what this contest is about man. Not f***ing reddit s***eaters. --- http://k09.kn3.net/1256263BF.gif (edited 11/24/2015 3:39:45 PM)report |
Snake
is a lot bigger than MGS, at least on this site, and he was stronger
than he'd ever been in 2013 despite having zero reason to improve. If
he's budged from the #2 spot I'd expect it's only because Cloud shot up
past him due to Smash. We still have yet to see how any of the MGS games that are actually worth a damn stack up, other than MGS3 sorta. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
Oh,
but for the actual question, Snake probably gets around 45-47% on Link
today. A huge faction of the site is completely aligned against Link in
protest of his dominance. It's basically guaranteed that Link's margin
of defeat against Draven could have been made up entirely of Link
antivotes from GameFAQs. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
Yuri_LowelI posted...
I'm not so sure about this. --- satoru iwata |
Man,
people say that Link always wins, but our poor hero hasn't actually won
a contest since 2010 (2011 if you include rivalries). There are kids
in kindergarten now who haven't seen Link win a character battle. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Is it just me, or have Mario 64 and Twilight Princess been on the rise for the last few updates? --- Wild raytan appeared! He chose Samus > Mario. It's... super effective? (edited 11/24/2015 5:10:47 PM)report |
Snake, as a result of Konami and Kojima s***ting up their franchise, probably struggles to break 35 on Link now. --- Your signature is automatically appended to the bottom of every post you make. Your 'About Me' message is displayed on your profile page. You can include any in |
Hey, I'm wondering: Metroid Prime vs. Final Fantasy IX? --- Wild raytan appeared! He chose Samus > Mario. It's... super effective? |
I'd take MP, just seems more reliable. We'll know more when FF9 faces Okami. This isn't precisely contest-related, but GotY-polls are coming soon. What are the odds Undertale pulls this kind of miracle work again? Tumblr could more easily dominate given its format and choice of games, but they may not care as much after pushing so hard for it to be the best game ever. Also, in case of no rally for GotY-polls, it'd be interesting to see how it would handle itself immediately after such a run like it's having here. --- M E N: nominate Metal Man in 20XX! http://i.imgur.com/Dr4NAeq.png |
FFIX > Prime > GoldenEye, I think. Not sure where Skyrim falls in that equation. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Also
I'm feeling like this isn't a stellar performance for Mario 64 here,
like KH. I feel like FFVIII > FFT, and Mario 64 isn't much higher
than where Mario World was pre-rally overdrive (It was climbing up
toward 65%+ as it was). I'm thinking Mario World > Mario 64 as of
right now. I think P4 and FFT would probably be pretty close. And LttP will get ready to claim the #2-3 with a bullet day after tomorrow when it goes 70%+ on FFIV. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Yeah my current guess is SMW > SM64 > SMB3 --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Undertale
just hit its top position in the FAQs today - #56. after the Undertale
madness, I bet it gets much, much higher. interest in that game is
exploding on GameFAQs thanks to this. you can see it all over the board. --- xyzzy |
so,
my bracket is CT/Mario World/MGS/OOT. it really sucks that I might have
a shot at the final four only to get Undertaled. I've come to terms
with it though. --- xyzzy |
Also,
I'm kind of interested to see what the vote totals are like tomorrow.
The vote totals dropped back down to normal two days after Undertale. If
they stay up, we might have garnered some holdover voters, which would
be great. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
I
don't get why P4 would gain but not P3. Did P4 have a remake or
something? Or did Skies of Arcadia just fall (and likewise, Twilight
Princess)? If TP fell significantly, I would certainty take Tactics
over P4. Actually, I would take FFT no matter what. P4 vs. Resident
Evil 2 would be a much better match. I think I'd take Prime over FFIX. I'm not sure FFIX could do this well on HL2, even a weaker one. Luckily, we have FFIX vs. Okami to better gauge that! --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
anyway,
I think Mario 64 is doing fine here. I overall think that the SNES >
PS1/N64 outside of FF7 and OOT (and maybe just OOT?), but Mario 64
certainly isn't out of the running by 'only' doubling FFT. Final Fantasy
doesn't go down that easily unless it's OOT. --- xyzzy |
While
Mario 64 has been holding steady, Twilight Princess has been slowly but
surely climbing in percentage. TP is now only about 1% behind SM64's
percentage. If SM64 and Persona 4 got even a small bit of Tumblr
spillover at the beginning of this match and Zelda gets it next time, I
think Twilight Princess really can pull off the upset. --- Yay - Raytan is the guru champion of awesomeness. |
Because Persona 4 is the game people played, not Persona 3. Haste_2 posted... Did P4 have a remake or something? Persona 4 Golden and a million spinoffs. I don't buy a significant TP drop. Not sure why everything else Zelda stays strong but TP doesn't (I'm sure all the TP haters will be glad to come in and tell me why it'll drop). --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
It's a really good performance, sure. I just don't think it's better than Mario World's, but I'm not exactly unbiased. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
I think people are definitely underrating TP right now. I'm not surprised if it tops Mario 64. --- satoru iwata |
Haste_2 posted... I don't get why P4 would gain but not P3. Did P4 have a remake or something? Or did Skies of Arcadia just fall (and likewise, Twilight Princess)? If TP fell significantly, I would certainty take Tactics over P4. Actually, I would take FFT no matter what. P4 vs. Resident Evil 2 would be a much better match. Persona 4 Golden was a re-release for the (lol) Vita, but it's pretty much regarded as the number one Vita game. Persona 4 Arena and Persona 4 Arena Ultimax were fighting games based on Persona 4 that came out recently. And a music game called Persona 4 Dancing all night came out on the Vita. Persona 4 has been pushed a lot over the last few years. --- Yay - Raytan is the guru champion of awesomeness. |
ZFS posted... I think people are definitely underrating TP right now. I'm not surprised if it tops Mario 64. I've somehow found myself in the situation of rooting for Zelda over Mario for literally the first time in 12 years --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
do you think FFT loses to Vice City? --- xyzzy |
ROUND 2 – DAY 5 – ALL OF DIVISION 5 Match LXXXI: (1) The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs. (8) Suikoden II Previous Rounds The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 91.03% against Hearthstone Suikoden II 56.94% against Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate Analysis This will probably be the biggest blowout of the second round. It’s nice that Suikoden II has reached the second round, but truly the only reason it is here was because it was lucky enough to face an even weaker opponent. Suikoden II was crushed by Final Fantasy VII back in 2004 and while you could come up with some kind of Playstation SFF the fact of the matter is Ocarina of Time will blow it out of the water. A second 90% win is possible, but I don’t think it will be that bad. charmander6000’s Bracket: LoZ: Ocarina of Time > Suikoden II charmander6000’s Prediction: LoZ: Ocarina of Time wins, 86.73% - 13.27% Match LXXXII: (5) Okami vs. (4) Final Fantasy IX Previous Rounds Okami 60.59% against Warcraft III Final Fantasy IX 51.09% against Kingdom Hearts Analysis The winner between Final Fantasy IX and Kingdom Hearts was always going to be the heavy favourite going into this match. With that said Okami has proven it isn’t a weak game as it retained its strength despite being an aging IP. I would take Final Fantasy IX over Metroid Prime though I predict it would be a close match. I think Okami has what it takes to break 40%, but in the end it doesn’t matter what the percent is since Final Fantasy IX is going to get crushed by Ocarina of Time next round. charmander6000’s Bracket: Final Fantasy IX > Okami charmander6000’s Prediction: Final Fantasy IX wins, 59.72% - 40.28% --- BGE3: Today's Matches Skyrim>GoldenEye, MP>HL2, SM64>FFT, LoZ:TP>Persona 4 Points 77/88 |
Match LXXXIII: (14) Donkey Kong Country 2: Diddy’s Kong Quest vs. (6) Fire Emblem: Awakening Previous Rounds Donkey Kong Country 2: Diddy’s Kong Quest 50.36% against Xenoblade Chronicles Fire Emblem: Awakening 64.39% against Super Mario Maker Analysis Pre-contest I would have taken the winner between DKC2/Xenoblade over the winner of FE:A/SMM, but Fire Emblem’s performance last round does make this more interesting. You don’t get over 64% on a debatable match without people questioning your strength. It makes sense that the best-selling Fire Emblem game would have some strength, but this probably has more to do with Super Mario Maker being that weak. Sure it’s Mario, but time and time again we have shown that GameFAQs just doesn’t care about new Mario. I wouldn’t be surprised if Fire Emblem got a bit of SFF on Mario. I still think DKC2 will win given how well older games have performed. If it does lose it’ll probably prove Awakening is not a secretly strong game. It would suit this contest for the least guru supported game here to come out of this weak four-pack. charmander6000’s Bracket: Donkey Kong Country 2 > Super Mario Maker charmander6000’s Prediction: Donkey Kong Country 2 wins, 53.73% - 46/27% Match LXXXIV: (7) Banjo-Kazooie vs. (2) Castlevania: Symphony of the Night Previous Rounds Banjo-Kazooie 62.32% against Baldur’s Gate II Castlevania: Symphony of the Night 74.99% against Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trials and Tribulations Analysis Banjo-Kazooie did well to prove it isn’t some fodder game and that it had been stuck behind SFF for literally all of its matches. Of course on the same day SotN goes and puts Final Fantasy IX like numbers on Trials and Tribulations. At first the assumption was that Phoenix Wright has gotten weaker, but after seeing Skyrim this round show that Phoenix Wright was legit it became apparent that SotN is just strong. Not that is should be surprising, it did well enough against Super Mario 64. SotN should be able to win, even the scenario of no SFF between FFX/FFIX in 2010 still puts the game above Banjo-Kazooie’s expected numbers. I am going to go against my bracket, which was always a long-shot, but I do feel Banjo-Kazooie will at least place a respectable performance in this match. charmander6000’s Bracket: Banjo-Kazooie > Castlevania: SotN charmander6000’s Prediction: Castlevania: SotN wins, 56.63% - 43.37% --- BGE3: Today's Matches Skyrim>GoldenEye, MP>HL2, SM64>FFT, LoZ:TP>Persona 4 Points 77/88 |
I
know Goldeneye's performance is making RE2 look bad (and in turn, FFT),
but I think FFT vs. FFVIII would be a really close match. I will also apply some useless analysis to try to gauge FE:A vs. DKC2 tomorrow. FE7 is expected to get 27.24% on Majora's Mask. To guesstimate DKC2, let's hold FFX constant and assume DKC2 gets 40% on MMX. This means DKC2 would get 34.82% on Majora's Mask. From there, if we assume DKC2 and FE:A are equal, FE:A would have to beat FE7 with 60.89% Also keep in mind that FE7 got almost exactly same score against Tony Hawk's Pro Skater that FE:A got on SMM. Not much help, but hey, if you think the latest FE can't be much stronger than the original GBA game, you might as well side with DKC2. On the other hand, if you think that SMM beats THPS by a lot, then go ahead and side with FE:A. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." (edited 11/24/2015 8:07:26 PM)report |
transience posted... do you think FFT loses to Vice City? Nah, but there's enough room for FFT to beat Vice City and still be weaker than VIII. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
totally,
just wondering where you were at in terms of how much of a bomb you
think this is. I think I had Mario 64 at 66% so this seems right in line
with a decent performance. (I've always thought World is better than
64, though. I just don't trust 64.) --- xyzzy |
Yeah, I don't either. I certainly don't agree with the people who think it's going to crush TP next round. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
LeonhartFour posted... It's a really good performance, sure. I just don't think it's better than Mario World's, but I'm not exactly unbiased. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3463-division-5-round-1-deus-ex-fft-mgs-pokemon-gs http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3498-division-5-final-mgs-pokemon-zelda-oot-ff8 If the FFT/FF8-comparison with MGS held up today, even loosely, SMW > SM64 looks excellent. Four-ways and six years change a lot though...wonder if it changed FFT/FF8 much. --- M E N: nominate Metal Man in 20XX! http://i.imgur.com/Dr4NAeq.png |
Wait, why does everyone have FF9 > Okami? Did I miss something? --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy -trancer1 lol xstats |
I
think I should stress I think this is a good performance by Mario 64.
It's probably in line with what many of us expect. What I'm saying is
you've got to do better than doubling FFT to get into the finals. That's
a very important distinction. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
Okami isn't that strong, it only got 42% on Metroid Prime --- BGE3: Today's Matches Skyrim>GoldenEye, MP>HL2, SM64>FFT, LoZ:TP>Persona 4 Points 77/88 |
charmander6000 posted... Okami isn't that strong, it only got 42% on Metroid Prime A Metroid Prime I would take more than 58% on FF9 with. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy -trancer1 lol xstats |
It's definitely possible that TP is close enough to 64 for the rally spillover to give it to TP. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
charmander6000 posted... Okami isn't that strong, it only got 42% on Metroid Prime I continually get impressed by Okami in these things, and it's undeniably been a slow burn in terms of popularity on this site. I can't 100% rule out the upset, though FFIX has proven itself to be the solid favorite. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
HaRRicH posted... This isn't precisely contest-related, but GotY-polls are coming soon. What are the odds Undertale pulls this kind of miracle work again? Tumblr could more easily dominate given its format and choice of games, but they may not care as much after pushing so hard for it to be the best game ever. Also, in case of no rally for GotY-polls, it'd be interesting to see how it would handle itself immediately after such a run like it's having here. I was also wondering if people would try to rally for Undertale in the GotY polls. I guess due to the format and the extremely low vote totals (most likely under 15000 votes normally for Undertale's poll), a rally for Undertale can easily do a lot of damage if it manages to take off. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted... Wait, why does everyone have FF9 > Okami? Did I miss something? apparently you missed FFIX > KH1 just last round --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
LordoftheMorons posted... It's definitely possible that TP is close enough to 64 for the rally spillover to give it to TP. I'm not sure TP needs any rally to do it! --- satoru iwata |
ZFS posted... LordoftheMorons posted...It's definitely possible that TP is close enough to 64 for the rally spillover to give it to TP. That's what I am talking about! TP to the division finals! --- Yay - Raytan is the guru champion of awesomeness. |
TP is scary because it's Zelda but it's a big underdog to Mario 64. it's just the Zeldafear that gives me pause. --- xyzzy |
