11/22/2015 7:55:04 PM#351
The poll results create a feedback loop. If it looks like a rally is going to fail, the rally efforts may die off causing the rally game to go back to getting killed. If it looks like the rallied game will barely fail, the ralliers may redouble their efforts to close the remaining gap.
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No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585.
Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest!
DaruniaTheGoron posted...
cyko posted...
Also, anyone who thinks Fallout 3 wins a close match tomorrow is completely nuts. Either Fallout 3 wins big (due to no rally or a weak rally) or it doesn't win at all. If any early Undertale rallying keeps this match close, Tumblr will stop at nothing to make sure Undertale pulls off the win.


There have been plenty of rallies that came up short. Whoever asserts stuff like this isn't operating in statistical reality. They are making assumptions that there is some intangible value about a rallied game being able to get just enough votes to win if it is close. While rallyers will be more enthused if the match is close, that doesn't guarantee there is a big enough pool of potential rallied votes to draw from to make it happen.


Which rallys fell just short? I don't say that in an antagonistic way - I just can't honestly recall a serious rally that fell just short of winning. Other than maybe Link failing against Draven.
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Yay - Raytan is the guru champion of awesomeness.
Yes, I'm totally against this idea that because a rallied game is making it close that it can dip into a pool of infinite rally votes. I don't agree with the idea that Draven could do it, and I don't think Undertale can either. People can similarly take up their own Fallout rallies in response, too. People could cheat to get the votes they need, but that's not the same really.
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satoru iwata
(edited 11/22/2015 7:55:48 PM)report
11/22/2015 7:58:52 PM#354
It's not an infinite pool. It's just the result of the amount of effort they put in. Like in the closing hour you might start making phone calls to friends for votes kind of thing. It's normally not worth the effort but when the match is close, you might go for it.
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No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585.
Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest!
Rallies work when they are centralized into one place full of people who care about whatever is being rallied. Individual enthusiasm doesn't contribute much more (if anything) than what a Reddit topic or Tumblr post does on its own. Tweets, Facebook posts, and the general efforts of an individual don't do much because they have almost no response rate. It's not a faucet that can be turned on or off.
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My name is Monica Lewinsky, and I am here to collect the rent.
cyko posted...
DaruniaTheGoron posted...
cyko posted...
Also, anyone who thinks Fallout 3 wins a close match tomorrow is completely nuts. Either Fallout 3 wins big (due to no rally or a weak rally) or it doesn't win at all. If any early Undertale rallying keeps this match close, Tumblr will stop at nothing to make sure Undertale pulls off the win.


There have been plenty of rallies that came up short. Whoever asserts stuff like this isn't operating in statistical reality. They are making assumptions that there is some intangible value about a rallied game being able to get just enough votes to win if it is close. While rallyers will be more enthused if the match is close, that doesn't guarantee there is a big enough pool of potential rallied votes to draw from to make it happen.


Which rallys fell just short? I don't say that in an antagonistic way - I just can't honestly recall a serious rally that fell just short of winning. Other than maybe Link failing against Draven.


Link/Draven was one that I was thinking of. Also, Mario WOULD have lost to Crono in 2003 if Ceej closed the poll when he should have after 24h.

Starcraft came up short on SSBM despite massive cheating.
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"This is all we have... when we die.."
StarCraft came up short because of blatant cheating, not in spite of it.
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
cyko posted...
DaruniaTheGoron posted...
cyko posted...
Also, anyone who thinks Fallout 3 wins a close match tomorrow is completely nuts. Either Fallout 3 wins big (due to no rally or a weak rally) or it doesn't win at all. If any early Undertale rallying keeps this match close, Tumblr will stop at nothing to make sure Undertale pulls off the win.


There have been plenty of rallies that came up short. Whoever asserts stuff like this isn't operating in statistical reality. They are making assumptions that there is some intangible value about a rallied game being able to get just enough votes to win if it is close. While rallyers will be more enthused if the match is close, that doesn't guarantee there is a big enough pool of potential rallied votes to draw from to make it happen.


Which rallys fell just short? I don't say that in an antagonistic way - I just can't honestly recall a serious rally that fell just short of winning. Other than maybe Link failing against Draven.


Starcraft.
Either way, Starcraft came up short.

I agree. There isn't an infinite pool of voters.

If, let's say, the official Nintendo facebook page linked to the match and the Nintendo twitter tweeted the match and Barack Obama tweeted the match, League can't magically say "lol here's a million votes"
Anyone else hoping undertale gets obliterated tomorroww?
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>_______________>
I think a lot of people would rather see Undertale get eliminated. We don't take kindly to other sites trying to overrun our contest.
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
Someone tell the fallout reddit
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sharp.
distance.
Ex-Kefiroth posted...
Someone tell the fallout reddit


Only if absolutely necessary.
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Every day the rest of your life is changed forever.
someone tell the Mario 3 Reddit

who cares about Fallout
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
A Undertale rally could potentially help Pokemon get in the lead against SMB3.

A Fallout rally would probably not effect Pokemon fighting SMB3 in the slightest.
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Video Games are pretty cool.
LeonhartFour posted...
someone tell the Mario 3 Reddit

who cares about Fallout

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satoru iwata
oh wait

I'd laugh if a Fallout rally caused Uncharted 2 to run over Sonic
LeonhartFour posted...
someone tell the Mario 3 Reddit

who cares about Fallout


Hahaha

If the Mario and Fallout reddits square off against tumblr that would be some major fighting.
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Every day the rest of your life is changed forever.
1337gamerpr0 posted...
oh wait

I'd laugh if a Fallout rally caused Uncharted 2 to run over Sonic


That might actually be possible. Unless most of the Fallout Reddit plays it on PC.
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Video Games are pretty cool.
OK. I see your counterpoint. I do still feel that Fallout 3 isn't quite strong enough on this site to hang in there against a strong rally, though. I still think that if this rally never materializes, Undertale fails miserably. If it does pick up steam, though, we won't be able to stop it.

LeonhartFour posted...
I think a lot of people would rather see Undertale get eliminated. We don't take kindly to other sites trying to overrun our contest.


The one and only way I won't curse Undertale's existence if it wins is if Undertale winning somehow causes my bracket to win a cash prize. Which is actually a very remote possibility since I do have FFVII > OOT in the finals...
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Yay - Raytan is the guru champion of awesomeness.
L-Block winning landed me in prize money position in 2007 (because I had Cloud > Link and you got more points for that than Link > Cloud because you got Link's position correct) and I still hated it!
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
cyko posted...
OK. I see your counterpoint. I do still feel that Fallout 3 isn't quite strong enough on this site to hang in there against a strong rally, though. I still think that if this rally never materializes, Undertale fails miserably. If it does pick up steam, though, we won't be able to stop it.

LeonhartFour posted...
I think a lot of people would rather see Undertale get eliminated. We don't take kindly to other sites trying to overrun our contest.


The one and only way I won't curse Undertale's existence if it wins is if Undertale winning somehow causes my bracket to win a cash prize. Which is actually a very remote possibility since I do have FFVII > OOT in the finals...


you don't actually get points for picking FFVII>OOT in the final if Undertale wins though, unlike the 2007 contest and 4-way stuff causing Cloud>Link to get more points than Link>Cloud
1337gamerpr0 posted...

you don't actually get points for picking FFVII>OOT in the final if Undertale wins though, unlike the 2007 contest and 4-way stuff causing Cloud>Link to get more points than Link>Cloud


I know that. But if OOT is the overwhelming favorite, I have a much better chance of winning with Undertale > OOT than with OOT > FF7 or OOT > Undertale. So in the scenario where Undertale unexpectedly defeats OOT, it wouldn't matter whether you picked FF7 or OOT to win, because almost noone gets points for the final match. In that unlikely scenario, Undertale could theoretically help my bracket more than hurt it.
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Yay - Raytan is the guru champion of awesomeness.
If you have OoT winning in the final, Undertale winning the final can not possibly help your bracket more than having OoT win in the final.
So I played more of these games in BGE than I realized (Haven't beaten all of them, but I know I have copies of them somewhere and I should actually get to beating them. @_@)

Own 105 out of 128, most of the ones I don't own are newer games that I will end up getting when I finally get a PS4.

...Maybe I should actually replay some of these games or restart them. Any recommendations?
The one person who picks Undertale gets 64 points and wins the contest.
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My name is Monica Lewinsky, and I am here to collect the rent.
AlecTrevelyan006 posted...
If you have OoT winning in the final, Undertale winning the final can not possibly help your bracket more than having OoT win in the final.


I don't. I have FF7 > OOT.
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Yay - Raytan is the guru champion of awesomeness.
cyko posted...
AlecTrevelyan006 posted...
If you have OoT winning in the final, Undertale winning the final can not possibly help your bracket more than having OoT win in the final.


I don't. I have FF7 > OOT.


*high fives*
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63/72 pts - GameFAQs' 20th Anniversary Best. Game. Ever. Contest!
NP: Final Fantasy VI/Zelda: WW/Smash Bros. Wii U/Final Fantasy VII
gearofages posted...
The one person who picks Undertale gets 64 points and wins the contest.

Assuming they didn't make enough other dumb picks to negate those points! (Though you actually get 127 extra points for picking Undertale to go all the way rather than lose in R1 if it makes it, which is just under 2/7 of the total points in the contest...)
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gearofages posted...
The one person who picks Undertale gets 64 points and wins the contest.


Ironically, This happened to me in 2007 with L-Block and I took 2nd Place! Sadly, that was my joke bracket and I won absolutely nothing... (even though my prize bracket did also finish in the Top 50...)
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Yay - Raytan is the guru champion of awesomeness.
LordoftheMorons posted...
gearofages posted...
The one person who picks Undertale gets 64 points and wins the contest.

Assuming they didn't make enough other dumb picks to negate those points! (Though you actually get 127 extra points for picking Undertale to go all the way rather than lose in R1 if it makes it, which is just under 2/7 of the total points in the contest...)


Yea. I was just referring to the final match. If someone picks Undertale to win and doesn't finish at the top, they should abstain from entering another contest.
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My name is Monica Lewinsky, and I am here to collect the rent.
as the guy who rallied on russia.com for l-block

go fallout
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xyzzy
Anyone with Undertale winning likely has it as a favourite bracket so it's quite possible that the other finalist lost in the first round.
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BGE3: Today's Matches Pokemon RBYG>SMB3, Sonic 2>Uncharted 2, Fallout 3>ME3, SMW>FFVIII
Points 71/80
I saw a rally for this on Steam, doubt it means much, but noted.
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3DS FC: 1805-2178-2522 NNID: Scarlettail
Scarlettail posted...
I saw a rally for this on Steam, doubt it means much, but noted.


For which? Undertale I'm assuming?
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Every day the rest of your life is changed forever.
someone start a Fallout 3 rally on Steam? heard Fallout 4 was massive on PC

j/k
charmander6000 posted...
Anyone with Undertale winning likely has it as a favourite bracket so it's quite possible that the other finalist lost in the first round.


Eh, there's bound to be a few people with prize brackets with Undertale winning. Draven and L-Block did.
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
starting to feel like Fallout might just make this match a non-issue

but I know better
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xyzzy
_Dog posted...
ctesjbuvf posted...
SMW>RBY>SMB3 and Fallout 3>Undertale is the perfect scenario.


So you want Undertale to fail its rally and yet for the damage to be done?


I don't think RBY>SMB3 is a bad result. I also think it would be cool if RBY>SMB3 created major Pokefear and then SMW outwright beat it.
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Julian_Caesar posted...
Scarlettail posted...
I saw a rally for this on Steam, doubt it means much, but noted.


For which? Undertale I'm assuming?


Yeah, at the UT board. Didn't look at it or anything, just saw it while I was there.
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3DS FC: 1805-2178-2522 NNID: Scarlettail
s***'s over as f*** for pokemon if smb3 has anyone near the same % during the board vote stage.
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>_______________>
(edited 11/22/2015 8:55:17 PM)report
a Steam rally probably wouldn't do much of anything
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xyzzy
11/22/2015 8:56:15 PM#394
The early vote doesn't really matter. It's what happens after the rally hits that does.
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No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585.
Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest!
Doomsday is almost here.
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
What does Fallout 3 start off with before the rally?

I'm going with 75%
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BGE3: Today's Matches Pokemon RBYG>SMB3, Sonic 2>Uncharted 2, Fallout 3>ME3, SMW>FFVIII
Points 71/80
75% sounds about right
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
probably 62% or so. Undertale is very big right now
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xyzzy
RBY lets f***ing go
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My butt was devastated by raytan.
3DS FC: 4725-7987-5535

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