GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1214
Ex-Kefiroth posted... I hope you guys have an arsenal of Fallout rallyers at the ready... Can we prepare some Mario ones, too? And possibly Uncharted ralliers as well? --- Ole, ole, ole, ole. Ole! Ole! (Accents and inverted !-marks missing) On a bet with three other users on if a certain girl genie will be in Smash; I say no. |
No, but I'd gladly take some Pokemon ralliers. --- "The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima raytan: Champ without picking the champ |
swirIdude posted... No, but I'd gladly take some Pokemon ralliers. Come on, bud. This isn't about brackets, it's about justice. --- Ole, ole, ole, ole. Ole! Ole! (Accents and inverted !-marks missing) On a bet with three other users on if a certain girl genie will be in Smash; I say no. |
Im
not worried about pokemon. Yes smb3 beats it cleanly but we need to
take undertale out. Take undertale out and mario world will take care of
pokemon later. --- http://k09.kn3.net/1256263BF.gif |
SMW>RBY>SMB3 and Fallout 3>Undertale is the perfect scenario. --- My old signature was really outdated. I haven't thought of a proper new one yet. |
SSB is temporary more popular because of Cloud being in the game, before Cloud is announced, I bet ME1 can easily outvote it. --- Commander Shepard: He's a prothean. Urdnot Wrex: Sometimes I'm not sure if the Normandy's a war ship or a traveling freak show. |
ctesjbuvf posted... SMW>RBY>SMB3 and Fallout 3>Undertale is the perfect scenario. So you want Undertale to fail its rally and yet for the damage to be done? --- Ole, ole, ole, ole. Ole! Ole! (Accents and inverted !-marks missing) On a bet with three other users on if a certain girl genie will be in Smash; I say no. |
Mac Arrowny posted... shane15 posted...I've just realised i've put the wrong game in.Hey i don't give a toss about that series give me a break >_> https://whitneym49.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/oh_you.jpg --- http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/330/958/a5b.gif |
Solid-Wrex posted... SSB is temporary more popular because of Cloud being in the game, before Cloud is announced, I bet ME1 can easily outvote it. Not really. But it may be closer. Mass effect 2 beats it though. --- http://k09.kn3.net/1256263BF.gif |
ctesjbuvf posted... SMW>RBY>SMB3 and Fallout 3>Undertale is the perfect scenario. Eh. SMB3 beats 'em both by a landslide. (Though matchwise 3 vs. World would be very close.) (edited 11/22/2015 4:34:57 PM)report |
How
much was Wind Waker supposed to get on Thousand Year Door according to
GotD? I'm wondering if the doubling is good enough for FF6 --- http://i.imgur.com/yrqRzHJ.gif |
BK_Sheikah00 posted... How much was Wind Waker supposed to get on Thousand Year Door according to GotD? I'm wondering if the doubling is good enough for FF6 67.72% EDIT: Wait, that's on Paper Mario not Thousand Year Door (edited 11/22/2015 4:39:33 PM)report |
Wind Waker would get like 60.70% on TTYD in GotD They were only two matches apart(TTYD-Oblivion and Wind Waker-Oblivion) so it should be one of the more reliable figures --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
56.01% according to the x-stat calculator. Pretty sure I entered it right unless the x-stats on the wiki are wrong. (edited 11/22/2015 4:45:43 PM)report |
ShatteredElysium posted... 56.01% according to the x-stat calculator. Pretty sure I entered it right unless the x-stats on the wiki are wrong. Well you did something wrong considering Wind Waker got more than that against Oblivion http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/48?input_values=43.21%0D%0A33.94 Save yourself the headache --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. (edited 11/22/2015 4:56:30 PM)report |
Then00bAvenger posted... ShatteredElysium posted...56.01% according to the x-stat calculator. Pretty sure I entered it right unless the x-stats on the wiki are wrong. Ha, I guess you're right. I actually used the other calculator on that site and that was what gave me 56.01%. I must have done something wrong http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/54?input_values=43.21%0D%0A33.94&strongest=50.00 |
The other one is for putting in the poll results for a 4 way poll to get x-stat values for the entrants --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
ROUND 2 – DAY 3 – ALL OF DIVISION 3 Match LXXIII: (1) Super Mario Bros. 3 vs. (8) Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green Previous Rounds Super Mario Bros. 3 84.17% against Age of Empires II Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green 68.34% against Tetris Analysis Knowing where Pokemon RBYG fell in this contest was probably the most important thing to take into account when making your bracket. You could make a convincing argument of it losing here to it reaching the finals. This match is also important to get right because the winner of this match will end up winning the next round. Some people were disappointed with Pokemon RBYG’s performance against Tetris in the previous round. However, Tetris has strength in its own right. Its performance against Mega Man 2 in 2009 was pretty good and if you make MM2 and MM3 equal it puts Tetris at around Final Fantasy IV where it got between 30-40% on SMW/SMB3 before taking LFF into account. This puts Pokemon RBYG at around the Mario games strength which doesn’t really answer who will win. Of course this is assuming that there was no SFF last round. I think it is likely Pokemon RBYG failed to SFF Tetris. Firstly it is common knowledge that Pokemon, like Samus/Metroid has problems SFF Nintendo opposition. Pokemon RBYG also doesn’t have the old-school feeling that is required to SFF a game like Tetris that SMB and Zelda would have. For the same reason Mewtwo wasn’t able to SFF Pac-Man back in 2008. If Pokemon RBYG did SFF Tetris then this match should be a relative easy win for SMB3. However, this whole match could be rendered moot if we get a repeat of last round with Tumblr. Pokemon is well liked on that site and if there is significant rallying I could see Pokemon close the gap if it was needed. charmander6000’s Bracket: Pokemon RBYG > Super Mario Bros. 3 charmander6000’s Prediction: Pokemon RBYG wins, 52.67% - 47.33% Match LXXIV: (12) Sonic the Hedgehog 2 vs. (4) Uncharted 2: Among Thieves Previous Rounds Sonic the Hedgehog 2 53.17% against Portal 2 Uncharted 2: Among Thieves 66.88% against The Walking Dead Analysis When I made my bracket I always felt that the winner between Sonic 2 and Portal 2 would defeat Uncharted 2. In 2010 Uncharted struggled to defeat Street Fighter IV whom barely defeated Sonic Adventure 2. Personally I would be shocked if Sonic 2 wasn’t clearly stronger than Sonic Adventure 2. It also helps that games released around Uncharted 2 have been flopping over the entire contest. It’s doubtful Uncharted 2 has retained its strength. While Uncharted 2 looked pretty good last round I think it more has to do with The Walking Dead’s weakness. While not the best use for comparing strength the vote totals for that match were quite low. For a contest where all four matches finish with around the same vote total Uncharted 2 couldn’t break 36k while all of the others were above 38k. Overall Sonic 2 shouldn’t really be threatened unless Tumblr overwhelmingly likes Uncharted 2. charmander6000’s Bracket: Sonic 2 > Uncharted 2 charmander6000’s Prediction: Sonic 2 wins, 57.86% - 42.14% --- BGE3: Today's Matches FFVI>PM:TTYD, LoZ:WW>SW:KotOR, SMG>SSBWiiU, FFVII>Halo Points 65/72 |
Match LXXV: (3) Fallout 3 vs. (6) Undertale Previous Rounds Fallout 3 72.55% against Life is Strange Undertale 50.95% against Mass Effect 3 Analysis In the end this will come down to whether or not Undertale will have a strong enough rally to close the gap. Before the rally Undertale was getting around 35% on Mass Effect 3 and pre-contest I expected Fallout 3 to get 65% on Mass Effect 3. That would essentially mean Undertale should be worth about 25% on Fallout 3. That is quite a gap, but it is doable for fans. If a normal match was to get 38k votes that would require 19k net votes to cover the gap assuming a 75/25 match. Of course not everyone that is rallied will support Undertale. The backfire rate was surprisingly low last round at under 5%, even Draven had a 10% backfire rate in his first two rounds. This could be explained by the fact Mass Effect 3 is hated. Assuming a 10% backfire rate that would require Undertale to have a total rally of 23.75k votes and that’s ignoring any Fallout 3 counter-rallies, though I doubt they would be significant here. Considering how easily Undertale was still gaining votes at the end the biggest issue will be time. It took about 7 hours and 14-15k votes for Undertale to catch-up. If the rallies start early I feel they will be strong enough to catch Fallout 3, but should the match be half over and nothing major has happened I will be doubtful that Undertale would be able to turn things around. charmander6000’s Bracket: Fallout 3 > Mass Effect 3 charmander6000’s Prediction: Undertale wins, 51.24% - 48.76% Match LXXVI: (10) Final Fantasy VIII vs. (2) Super Mario World Previous Rounds Final Fantasy VIII 60.68% against Grand Theft Auto: Vice City Super Mario World 73.27% against Animal Crossing: New Leaf Analysis I was quite disappointed with Final Fantasy VIII last round. It needed a Tumblr rally just to break 60% against Vice City. With GTAV and San Andreas performing like their usual GTA self I am more incline to believe Final Fantasy VIII just flopped, which is weird considering it was probably the only Playstation and earlier game to do so. Some people have said that the Undertale rally would help FFVIII. There’s no way to say for sure, but I doubt it would give Super Mario World any trouble. Final Fantasy VIII was only slightly more favoured over Vice City and I feel that more had to do with Vice City. Animal Crossing is also a very popular series on that site so it makes sense that it would do relatively better over there. Overall I see Super Mario World having no issue breaking 60% here. charmander6000’s Bracket: Super Mario World > Final Fantasy VIII charmander6000’s Prediction: Super Mario World wins, 63.46% - 36.54% --- BGE3: Today's Matches FFVI>PM:TTYD, LoZ:WW>SW:KotOR, SMG>SSBWiiU, FFVII>Halo Points 65/72 |
Hey guys, question: Do we have any reason to believe Portal 2 > Uncharted 2? Because I think Uncharted 2 might actually have the chance at the upset, but I'm not so sure... --- Wild raytan appeared! He chose Samus > Mario. It's... super effective? |
Advokaiser posted... Hey guys, question: Nope, no proof of it whatsoever. --- "The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima raytan: Champ without picking the champ |
no proof either way though --- xyzzy |
Portal finished ahead of Uncharted 2 in 2010, though I would take Portal > Portal 2, but others have disagreed. --- BGE3: Today's Matches FFVI>PM:TTYD, LoZ:WW>SW:KotOR, SMG>SSBWiiU, FFVII>Halo Points 65/72 |
charmander6000 posted... Portal finished ahead of Uncharted 2 in 2010, though I would take Portal > Portal 2, but others have disagreed. I'd also take Portal > Portal 2 (strength-wise, of course) without a doubt. The question here would be Portal 2's real strength. --- Wild raytan appeared! He chose Samus > Mario. It's... super effective? |
Charmander, I think you're overestimating Tetris' strength. Tetris belongs in that same area where Pong, Pac-Man, Space Invaders, and Galaga are: universally well-known among gamers and non-gamers but no real strength in a site like GameFAQs. Tetris would have no problem beating fodder, but when it comes to facing a popular game in this site it'll stumble and fall. Tetris may be to games as Pac-Man is to characters. Given the right opponent, it'll do great, but against the wrong opponent it'll be slammed. Think Pac-Man's performances against Ocelot and then Yoshi over a decade ago. Tetris is like that. Doubling Tetris is not very impressive. Mario 3 is the favorite coming in, but Tumblr will likely topple it anyway. --- Give me kuribo's shoe or give me death! - transcience Mario 3 > Pokemon R/B/Y/G - Vote quality over nostalgia! |
Sonic 2 definitely wins if there's a tumblr rally. I hear they have a lot of otherkin --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
I'm kinda getting the feeling of the rally being enough for Pokemon > Mario 3 but not enough for Undertale > Fallout 3. |
tennisboy213 posted... I'm kinda getting the feeling of the rally being enough for Pokemon > Mario 3 but not enough for Undertale > Fallout 3. My bracket would be quite pleased with that...although if that's true, Pokemon would then lose to SMW and cost me 12 points. Whoops. --- "The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima raytan: Champ without picking the champ |
_Dog posted... Charmander, I think you're overestimating Tetris' strength. That's why I used Mega Man 2 as my example. While I do admit Pokemon RBYG could have SFF Tetris (thus making it look worse) I feel Pokemon doesn't have the same old-schoolness. Pac-Man was able to hold up nicely against Cloud in 2008 as well so it has nothing to do with how well known a character/game is. In a fair match though the best case scenario for Pokemon would be a narrow win while SMB3 has the potential for an easy win. --- BGE3: Today's Matches FFVI>PM:TTYD, LoZ:WW>SW:KotOR, SMG>SSBWiiU, FFVII>Halo Points 65/72 |
a worthy sacrifice --- xyzzy |
charmander6000 posted... _Dog posted...Charmander, I think you're overestimating Tetris' strength. To that I say lol 4-ways. Tumblr's gonna ruin the polls anyway. --- Give me kuribo's shoe or give me death! - transcience Mario 3 > Pokemon R/B/Y/G - Vote quality over nostalgia! |
I
really am at a loss about tomorrow. On one hand I don't think Undertale
will be the new Draven, but I thought the same about Draven's own run
so... uh. --- raytan stepped on me in the guru contest. |
_Dog posted... Tetris belongs in that same area where Pong, Pac-Man, Space Invaders, and Galaga are: universally well-known among gamers and non-gamers but no real strength in a site like GameFAQs. Tetris would have no problem beating fodder, but when it comes to facing a popular game in this site it'll stumble and fall. We really don't have enough information to prove or disprove your theory, because all we've ever seen Tetris go up against are really old games and RBY. You could say Tetris getting wrecked by SMB1 and LoZ means it doesn't have many hardcore fans, but how many old games are going to stand up to SMB1 and LoZ anyway? There is one game Tetris did stand up to in 2009: Mega Man 2, beating it twice, once while SMB1 and LoZ took over 70% of the votes. MM2 may not be a beast, but it showed in that contest that it wasn't complete fodder either. Tetris beat it twice, and it wasn't a situation of people not knowing (or caring) what Mega Man 2 is. --- "The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima raytan: Champ without picking the champ (edited 11/22/2015 6:18:08 PM)report |
SuorGenoveffa posted... I really am at a loss about tomorrow. On one hand I don't think Undertale will be the new Draven, but I thought the same about Draven's own run so... uh. Same here. --- raytan is the guru champ, yo yo yo He won it in the year of the draggy crow |
Tetris had never even faced a game made past the 1980s. --- My name is Monica Lewinsky, and I am here to collect the rent. |
Has anyone checked Tumblr yet? --- Give me kuribo's shoe or give me death! - transcience Mario 3 > Pokemon R/B/Y/G - Vote quality over nostalgia! |
gearofages posted... Tetris had never even faced a game made past the 1980s. But Tetris did have a character that has won the Character Contest! That is something only a few games can brag about. --- Yay - Raytan is the guru champion of awesomeness. |
I couldn't find anything new on Tumblr. Only the old rally. We'll see! |
Also,
anyone who thinks Fallout 3 wins a close match tomorrow is completely
nuts. Either Fallout 3 wins big (due to no rally or a weak rally) or it
doesn't win at all. If any early Undertale rallying keeps this match
close, Tumblr will stop at nothing to make sure Undertale pulls off the
win. --- Yay - Raytan is the guru champion of awesomeness. |
So
I've been on vacation in NYC the past few days and missed the
SSBM-rally against GSC. What were the details? Where it came from,
when it began, what SSBM had pre-rally, etc. --- M E N: nominate Metal Man in 20XX! http://i.imgur.com/Dr4NAeq.png |
I'd laugh if Fallout fans started up their own rally and rolled over the rest of the contest |
1337gamerpr0 posted... I'd laugh if Fallout fans started up their own rally and rolled over the rest of the contest Replacing one evil with another doesn't help! --- No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585. Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest! |
If it was a 3 way battle who would win? SMB3, Pokemon R/B/Y or Undertale? --- Video Games are pretty cool. |
well gosh, two nintendo games cannibalizing each other and a game with the strongest rally thus far in the contest, I wonder --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
HaRRicH posted... So I've been on vacation in NYC the past few days and missed the SSBM-rally against GSC. What were the details? Where it came from, when it began, what SSBM had pre-rally, etc. It came from Tumblr, it started early in the day (not sure about the actual time though), and SSBM had around 56% before the rally powered-up. --- Wild raytan appeared! He chose Samus > Mario. It's... super effective? |
If
Undertale really starts to catch fire, Pokemon will be our best hope at
avoiding another Draven. Given a rally capable of knocking out Fallout
3, the most important information coming out of tomorrow's matches will
be Tumblr's relative percentages going for Mario and Pokemon. --- Christopher Christopher Christopher Christopher |
No the smash rally came from reddit --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
HaRRicH posted... So I've been on vacation in NYC the past few days and missed the SSBM-rally against GSC. What were the details? Where it came from, when it began, what SSBM had pre-rally, etc. https://www.reddit.com/r/smashbros/comments/3to75s/melee_is_up_for_best_game_ever_vote/ After looking into it, the rally was posted at 3:08:21 AM EST. Considering that it takes some time to get enough upvotes to appear on the subreddit's main page, I would estimate the rally started around 7:30 AM EST based on when Melee started to really gain percentage. Melee's lowest percentage was 55.67% at 7:20 AM. Also, there was no Melee rally on Tumblr, unlike what you might have heard from Advokaiser. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
LordoftheMorons posted... No the smash rally came from reddit Oh, right! I had it mixed up with all this Undertale talk. >.< The rally came from r/Smashbros. --- Wild raytan appeared! He chose Samus > Mario. It's... super effective? |
cyko posted... Also, anyone who thinks Fallout 3 wins a close match tomorrow is completely nuts. Either Fallout 3 wins big (due to no rally or a weak rally) or it doesn't win at all. If any early Undertale rallying keeps this match close, Tumblr will stop at nothing to make sure Undertale pulls off the win. There have been plenty of rallies that came up short. Whoever asserts stuff like this isn't operating in statistical reality. They are making assumptions that there is some intangible value about a rallied game being able to get just enough votes to win if it is close. While rallyers will be more enthused if the match is close, that doesn't guarantee there is a big enough pool of potential rallied votes to draw from to make it happen. --- http://www.last.fm/user/VinnyMendoza "This is all we have... when we die.." |
