http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4176-southwest-division-round-3-portal-vs-mass-effect
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4186-southwest-division-final-resident-evil-4-vs-portal

I too overshot Smash 4 a bit, but looking at this, it doesn't make any sense to call the game a major disappointment unless you were expecting it to be able to be able to give Resident Evil 4 a scare or something. In which case, that was very foolish of you!
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
OrangeCrush980 posted...
I think SSB4 would win that. Just like how HG/SS would beat GSC.

#rSSF is real


Not even the same thing and no he and so wouldn't beat the originals. Brawl and smash u are different games.
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http://k09.kn3.net/1256263BF.gif
I get the feeling FF6/WW is going to be a close match the entire time and should be a fun one to watch.
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Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy IX - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3729662
Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64
Ff6 will win by 55-58% normally.

But we all know zelda is unpredictable. Wind Waker could make it close if there's rallies. But no it state strength is too weak. Even Majora would lose to FFVI.
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http://k09.kn3.net/1256263BF.gif
I think Melee is in that match yeah? so FF6 has to contend with that rally too.
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xyzzy
(edited 11/22/2015 10:04:13 AM)report
FF6's gonna beat WW with about 53%, barring rally shenanigans.
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"The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima
raytan: Champ without picking the champ
Nobody plays Brawl anymore. It might lost to MGS4 again.
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Currently playing: Dark Souls 2
transience posted...
I think Melee is in that match yeah? so FF6 has to contend with that rally too.


no, R3 is CT/FFX, Melee/KHII on the first day, FF6/WW and SSB4/FF7 are on the next day
Smash U has got to be the strongest Wii U game by a huge margin. Mass Effect could beat any of the others we've seen easily.
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Christopher Christopher Christopher Christopher
1337gamerpr0 posted...
transience posted...
I think Melee is in that match yeah? so FF6 has to contend with that rally too.


no, R3 is CT/FFX, Melee/KHII on the first day, FF6/WW and SSB4/FF7 are on the next day


r3 was changed to four matches/day
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
transcience posted...
1337gamerpr0 posted...
transience posted...
I think Melee is in that match yeah? so FF6 has to contend with that rally too.


no, R3 is CT/FFX, Melee/KHII on the first day, FF6/WW and SSB4/FF7 are on the next day


r3 was changed to four matches/day


it was changed again? I thought it was 4/4/2/2/2/1/1
creativename posted...
There's a third factor Luster, which is especially important between games with lower playrates. Most polls have games with playrates under 50%.

That's respect factor, or perceived quality factor. Or a guess of "I think this is more my type of game".

Some games have high respect from people who haven't played it. They will get votes from people who haven't played them at a higher rate.


That's certainly a valid factor, but estimating a game's respect factor is harder than getting a read on a game's likeability and playrate. Games with a high respect factor will generally be those that are among the elites on this site. OoT would have a high respect factor for sure.

With playrate, you can look at what systems the game has been released on and use that information to approximate the upper limit for the game's playrate. Smash 4 is a Wii U exclusive and the Wii U had an ownership of 45.70% in the previous Wii U ownership poll (on 7/6/2015). Since Smash 4 is the most high profile game to be released the Wii U and the biggest system seller, most Wii U owners have played the game. Thus, you can assume the game's playrate will be only slightly lower than the Wii U's ownership.

Older games generally have higher playrates because older games are more likely to have been re-released on other systems, either as a remake or being ported to a newer system. That expands the potential pool of people who have been exposed to the game. Older games also have the advantage over newer games in playrate because the newer games haven't been around long enough for most people interested in the game to actually get around to playing the game.

Estimating a game's likeability is not as easy as estimating the playrate, but you could do it by looking at the game's user rating on the site and also what people are saying about the game. For a game that belongs to an actual game series (with 2 or more games), you can also look at what people are saying about the game's likeability when compared to other games in the series.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
(edited 11/22/2015 10:18:36 AM)report
Luster or someone probably has the original post. I'm pretty sure I'm right though.
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
11/22/2015 10:20:36 AM#214
Four Four Two Two Two One One

Round 3, 4 and 5 are two matches a day. One match a day from then on.
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No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585.
Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest!
The original post had a topic title that reads "Four Four Two One One One One" and the first post of the topic said "And then we're done."

Allen made a more recent topic (now purged) announcing a change to his original schedule. No changes were made to the first 3 rounds, but round 4 and round 5 will be 2 matches per day. While round 6 and round 7 (Semifinals and the final) being one match per day.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
oh cool, I am wrong then. FF6 wins, woo!
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xyzzy
AxemRedRanger posted...
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4176-southwest-division-round-3-portal-vs-mass-effect
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4186-southwest-division-final-resident-evil-4-vs-portal

I too overshot Smash 4 a bit, but looking at this, it doesn't make any sense to call the game a major disappointment unless you were expecting it to be able to be able to give Resident Evil 4 a scare or something. In which case, that was very foolish of you!


This is what I was thinking. Smash U is on Portal's level going by this. If you assume a constant Mass Effect and Morrowind Smash beats Metroid Prime.
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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
Prime would decimate Smash U, sorry.
Wow, Prime is such a bastion of strength, that 50/50 against HL2 and that disappointing 63% against Morrowind.
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Man is not the creature of circumstances. Circumstances are the creatures of man.
I think that today is going to be the last time I get all 4 matches right
Maybe Skyrim>007 but I doubt it

Actually maybe not, Division VIII is pretty easy too
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3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066
-Zelmor- posted...
Wow, Prime is such a bastion of strength, that 50/50 against HL2 and that disappointing 63% against Morrowind.


HL2 would beat Smash U too.

Lets not act like ME is anywhere near that level. ME2 maybe but thats debatable.

Either way Smash U would get beat by a lot of western games. I'd take Fallout/Skyrim/RE4/ME2/Goldeneye and even TLOU over Smash U

Also using the contest from 5 years ago doesn't mean anything. A super smash bros game is barely beating what is even a midcard Western game. Cmon now.

EDIT re4 isn't western but it might as well be.
(edited 11/22/2015 11:01:33 AM)report
-Zelmor- posted...
Wow, Prime is such a bastion of strength, that 50/50 against HL2 and that disappointing 63% against Morrowind.


Melee got 71% on Morrowind, so that 63% doesn't seem too disappointing to me. GOTD logic giveth and GOTD logic taketh.
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My name is Monica Lewinsky, and I am here to collect the rent.
Januzaj_Dragon posted...
-Zelmor- posted...
Wow, Prime is such a bastion of strength, that 50/50 against HL2 and that disappointing 63% against Morrowind.


HL2 would beat Smash U too.

Lets not act like ME is anywhere near that level. ME2 maybe but thats debatable.

Either way Smash U would get beat by a lot of western games. I'd take Fallout/Skyrim/RE4/ME2/Goldeneye and even TLOU over Smash U

Also using the contest from 5 years ago doesn't mean anything. A super smash bros game is barely beating what is even a midcard Western game. Cmon now.

EDIT re4 isn't western but it might as well be.


To be fair, your original statement was "Prime would DECIMATE Smash U".

I could see Prime or HL2 barely edging out Smash U, but I highly doubt it's gonna be a huge blowout or anything.
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Man is not the creature of circumstances. Circumstances are the creatures of man.
When I say Decimate I mean just beat it with 53%+ comfortably. I just like to use the word Decimate.
Ulti-style destruction
gearofages posted...
-Zelmor- posted...
Wow, Prime is such a bastion of strength, that 50/50 against HL2 and that disappointing 63% against Morrowind.


Melee got 71% on Morrowind, so that 63% doesn't seem too disappointing to me. GOTD logic giveth and GOTD logic taketh.


But Melee lost to Brawl and bled 6% to Call of Duty - which, I may add, just got only 21% on Super Metroid.
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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
Januzaj_Dragon posted...
-Zelmor- posted...
Wow, Prime is such a bastion of strength, that 50/50 against HL2 and that disappointing 63% against Morrowind.


HL2 would beat Smash U too.

Lets not act like ME is anywhere near that level. ME2 maybe but thats debatable.

Either way Smash U would get beat by a lot of western games. I'd take Fallout/Skyrim/RE4/ME2/Goldeneye and even TLOU over Smash U

Also using the contest from 5 years ago doesn't mean anything. A super smash bros game is barely beating what is even a midcard Western game. Cmon now.

EDIT re4 isn't western but it might as well be.


I can't be the only one who finds Smash 4/Mass Effect to be reminiscent of Brawl/Fallout 3.

Also it's kind of weird that we all act like Metroid Prime is so strong when the best it has ever done in these contests is 47% on Fallout 3. Take that away and you have getting 54-46'd by Wind Waker, losing to GTA, and a close win over Half-Life 2 in a day match.
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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
(edited 11/22/2015 11:30:19 AM)report
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Smash 4 is weak due to the lack of playrate. The underwhelming performance of Smash 4 has given quite a bit of insight as to what makes a game strong. From what I've noticed, there are 2 main factors that contribute to a game's strength:

1. The game's overall likeability and popularity compared to other games.
2. The game's playrate or the percentage of this site's users that have played the game.

Looking at either one of those separately will lead to grossly underestimating or overestimating a game's strength in the contests. If you looked only at playrate alone, you might think the game with the highest playrate of all time (Tetris with 98.85%) would be along the elites on this site when that is far from the truth. Tetris would lose to games like Wind Waker and FFVI, so the problem with Tetris lies in the game's overall likeability as very few people would have Tetris listed in their Top 10 favorite games.

Smash 4's problem lies in the game's playrate, even though the game is very likeable among those who have played it. Those who have played Smash 4 generally seem to agree the game is better than Brawl, but the playrate is what holds Smash 4 back from reaching its strength potential. Due to the lack of playrate, Smash 4 has trouble getting votes from people who haven't played the game, even if they may have played earlier games in the series.


This isn't really anything new, coulda told you that in 2002 lol.
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"This is all we have... when we die.."
I actually think Hyrule Warriors could have decent strength and win some matches.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest
"F*** Draven." -SBAllen
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Januzaj_Dragon posted...
-Zelmor- posted...
Wow, Prime is such a bastion of strength, that 50/50 against HL2 and that disappointing 63% against Morrowind.


HL2 would beat Smash U too.

Lets not act like ME is anywhere near that level. ME2 maybe but thats debatable.

Either way Smash U would get beat by a lot of western games. I'd take Fallout/Skyrim/RE4/ME2/Goldeneye and even TLOU over Smash U

Also using the contest from 5 years ago doesn't mean anything. A super smash bros game is barely beating what is even a midcard Western game. Cmon now.

EDIT re4 isn't western but it might as well be.


I can't be the only one who finds Smash 4/Mass Effect to be reminiscent of Brawl/Fallout 3.

Also it's kind of weird that we all act like Metroid Prime is so strong when the best it has ever done in these contests is 47% on Fallout 3. Take that away and you have getting 54-46'd by Wind Waker, losing to GTA, and a close win over Half-Life 2 in a day match.


Yeah but smash U is weaker. Thats my point.

Anyhow Prime isn't that strong because it's a type of game Gfaqs don't play and it's on a system noone cares about.

If you had a Metroid 64 as good as Good as Prime it would be stomping a lot of stuff in this contest.
LinkMarioSamus posted...
gearofages posted...
-Zelmor- posted...
Wow, Prime is such a bastion of strength, that 50/50 against HL2 and that disappointing 63% against Morrowind.


Melee got 71% on Morrowind, so that 63% doesn't seem too disappointing to me. GOTD logic giveth and GOTD logic taketh.


But Melee lost to Brawl and bled 6% to Call of Duty - which, I may add, just got only 21% on Super Metroid.


you're using two contests and merging dicussions.

Melee would 85% COD4 now.
UltimaterializerX posted...
I actually think Hyrule Warriors could have decent strength and win some matches.


Honestly if we think the Zelda name actually means that much we should get Skyward Sword into a contest.
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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
Hyrule Warriors vs Mario Maker

ez win
1337gamerpr0 posted...
Hyrule Warriors vs Mario Maker

ez win


And then the winner is stomped by Half-Life 2
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"The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima
raytan: Champ without picking the champ
Currently, TTYD would have to be able to get 67.50% or more on Halo 1 for FFVI > FFVII.

Just throwing that out there.
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LeonhartFour posted...
Currently, TTYD would have to be able to get 67.50% or more on Halo 1 for FFVI > FFVII.

Just throwing that out there.


in terms of raw statistics yes. But if FFVI and VIII meet theres a lot of SFF and rSFF going on.
get rSFF out of here

if FFVI isn't in FFVII's league it isn't winning without a rally
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LeonhartFour posted...
get rSFF out of here

if FFVI isn't in FFVII's league it isn't winning without a rally


FFVI is in FFVII's league. Theres a league of about 5 games which threatening to be the #2 and FFVI is in that. FFVII is obviously the favourite.
FFVI isn't ever going to be the #2 game on this site. If it beats FFVII, it's because VII got weaker.
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Well yeah true if VI ' beats VII it could just mean VI is just stronger than VII. But the #2 is still debatable. FFVI has the potential.
FFVI isn't beating out CT if it ever comes to that.
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The #2 potentials are:

Final Fantasy VII
Chrono Trigger
Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
Super Mario 64
Pokemon RBY

Those may not all be close and might not be #2-#6 even, but they're the potentials imo.
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Ctesjbuvf posting on his phone.
(edited 11/22/2015 12:42:46 PM)report
and Melee. that's our new super seven, along with Ocarina.

well, FF6 could slot in there too. gonna be fun to see how it does on Wind Waker. if it gets 56%+ then I think it belongs in the conversation. that'll put it above Majora.
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xyzzy
honestly, it would have been interesting to have LTTP and/or MM on the top half of the bracket as well

if it turns out LTTP is actually the #2 game on the site, then so be it
SMB3 and SMW?
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My name is Monica Lewinsky, and I am here to collect the rent.
Yeah, throw Melee in there to have a super seven or elite eight with FFVI maybe. I just don't think those two could be our #2.

We'll know better once the contest ends. Only LttP is not gonna face the other contenders.
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Ctesjbuvf posting on his phone.
The problem is that we won't really get a good feel for how strong LttP even is this year. It's got a bunch of unknowns and Nintendo games in its division, and then it gets fed to OoT.
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gearofages posted...
SMB3 and SMW?


Both very strong too, but if a Mario game is #2, it's SM64.
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Ctesjbuvf posting on his phone.
Eh, Mario World could be the #1 Mario game and it wouldn't surprise me. People want to push this as THE YEAR OF THE N64 because of OoT and because MM won GOTD, but the SNES has been the dominant one.
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(edited 11/22/2015 12:51:39 PM)report
11/22/2015 12:53:37 PM#250
LTTP will hopefully stand up to SFF so we can get a good read on its floor. The Nintendo fanbase is usually perceptive on when they need to fall in line and when not to.
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NEVER FORGET.

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