GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1213
Super
Metroid gets 79% on COD4 and it means that COD4 is garbage. CT gets 82%
on DQ8 and CT is going to the finals. There seems to be some picking
and choosing of what games have lost strength. --- My name is Monica Lewinsky, and I am here to collect the rent. |
definitely. that's why r2 and 3 is so fun. --- xyzzy |
Not
to disagree with the picking and choosing of winners and losers, but CT
actually has made it to the finals before. Super Metroid has looked
pretty bad in every contest it's ever been in, albeit with the excuse of
always having to go up against Nintendo crap. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
gearofages posted... Super Metroid gets 79% on COD4 and it means that COD4 is garbage. CT gets 82% on DQ8 and CT is going to the finals. There seems to be some picking and choosing of what games have lost strength. Pfft, you'll find that now that my bracket is dead, I'm hopping on every crazy train. SMRPG > RE4, Super Metroid > Majora's Mask, all post-2000 games are actually really weak and MMX is stronger than every post-2000 non-Nintendo exclusive game except FFX. --- http://i.imgur.com/M1heX2g.jpg RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :( |
Melee's day vote is really one of a kind. --- Man is not the creature of circumstances. Circumstances are the creatures of man. |
Wow,
there is a real day vote today! On the one hand, I'm happy to see
trends, on the other hand, I could definitely do without seeing CT lose
another match to the day vote. Fortunately today it's the beneficiary
of the day vote, and is up more than a full percent since it started. Meanwhile, Melee is up more than 3%! It's erased almost all the damage GSC did overnight now, and at the current pace it may very well end up higher than it was at 1 AM. And FFX is on the way back down. It's lost 2/3 of its overnight gains and may very well end lower than it was at 1 AM! I wonder if today being a weekend (or last night being a Friday night in North America) has anything to do with this sudden day vote resurgence. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Also,
this whole idea of Nintendo SFFing CT and FFVII is possibly the worst
theory I've ever heard here. I thought people were joking when they
said that an announcement of Cloud being in Smash would suddenly make
FFVII fans abandon him for Nintendo, but apparently they weren't joking
and have suggested similar things for CT. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Honest
question, do we have any result that says anything about GotD-era games
vs. older ones other than new getting smashed into a bloody paste by
FFVII/OoT? LttP did as well against FFVII with Mario 3/Mario World in the poll as FFX did against OoT with MGS4/Brawl hanging out. Replace MGS4/Brawl with RBY/Melee and FFX gains a massive 2%, so it's not like MGS4 hurt FFX much. If FFX is actually not nearly as strong as we thought, then all of a sudden that pushes everything from GotD down a long way. --- http://i.imgur.com/M1heX2g.jpg RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :( |
Vote totals are also pretty high. Using weekend matches we're on pace for 43k in SSBM/GSC and 41-42k in the other matches Maybe there's a small rally going on... --- BGE3: Today's Matches CT>Persona 3, FFX>Batman: AC, SSBM>Pokemon GSC, KH2>TLoU Points 57/64 |
Eh,
don't start overthinking things too ridiculously. FFX and LttP were
decently close in 2009 evidenced by the final; FF7 and OoT SFFed them to
almost the exact same extent judging by the fact that they maintained
almost the exact same proportion in the 1v1 fight the following day. It's just six years later. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
I mean it only took 5 years for OoT to turn a 54-46 beating at the hands of FF7 into 53-47. MGS/FFT went from 50-50 to 62-38 in 5 years. Pokemon GSC lost to Xenogears 5 years prior to 2009/2010. ...lots of stuff can happen in 5-6 years! --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
Unless FFVII fans are more likely to like LttP than FFX, as evidenced by FFX being far too recent for their tastes! --- http://i.imgur.com/M1heX2g.jpg RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :( |
Eh, don't start overthinking things too ridiculously. FFX and LttP were decently close in 2009 evidenced by the final; FF7 and OoT SFFed them to almost the exact same extent judging by the fact that they maintained almost the exact same proportion in the 1v1 fight the following day. It doesn't work that way. OOT probably SFFed LTTP a lot worse. This would have the effect of reducing the amount of damage OOT took, while LTTP's greater natural strength and closer overlap to OOT would have the effect of increasing the damage OOT took. And this was predicted beforehand, that LTTP would collapse. Nintendo voters "fall in line," and they know how to win their contests - a vote for LTTP was a wasted vote on that day, pretty much tantamount to a vote for FFVII. It is somewhat more useful to observe that Ocarina gained about 1% the next day, when LTTP and FFX were removed, showing that LTTP was still having a greater impact on the match than FFX. This suggests greater overlap between OOT/LTTP than between FFVII/FFX, and gives more reason for LTTP to have really suffered in that match. A better comparison is to look at the prior rounds. LTTP did better against FFVII while suffering from Triple Nintendo LFF than than FFX did against OOT in a neutral match (MGS4 and Brawl roughly canceling). IMO, LTTP would have gotten at least 55% on FFX back in 2009, and could get 60% now. I will be looking for CT to get 60% next round to keep hope alive for its quest to beat FFVII and to keep up with LTTP. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Wow, I didn't expect Melee to storm with the day vote. Looks like CT vs. Melee could still be in contention after all! --- Ole, ole, ole, ole. Ole! Ole! (Accents and inverted !-marks missing) On a bet with three other users on if a certain girl genie will be in Smash; I say no. |
Also,
when FFX and LTTP are getting smashed 80-20, they can suffer a
tremendous amount of damage without OOT and FFVII taking much damage at
all. That 1% Ocarina lost relative to FFVII from FFX and LTTP being in
the match may translate to something far, far, worse for LTTP. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
FFVII/FFX
had 47.77% in the finals compared to FF7's 47.31% against OoT alone.
FF7 also had 47.64% of OoT's vote total in the finals. That's splitting hairs, we're not even talking about a difference of a half a percent no matter how you analyze that match. The proposition that LttP was being SFFed harder and had more overlap doesn't have real support based on that match, and the prior rounds were just a mess of who could resist SFF and voters feeling through which game would get a strategic vote. Like I said, you'd be far better off chalking up most of these changes to the passage of time. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
NameValue The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time50.00% Final Fantasy X34.59% Metal Gear Solid 432.48% Super Smash Bros. Brawl29.97% NameValue Final Fantasy VII50.00% The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past34.56% Super Mario World26.54% Super Mario Bros. 325.61% This is the best comparison I think. Virtually identical numbers, one in a matchup slightly favorable to FFX (SSBB is actually Nintendo and should hurt OOT worse than MGS4 hurts FFX) and the other facing the burden of Triple Nintendo LFF. OOT was stronger than FFVII, but Triple LFF is an amazing force. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
gearofages posted... Super Metroid gets 79% on COD4 and it means that COD4 is garbage. CT gets 82% on DQ8 and CT is going to the finals. There seems to be some picking and choosing of what games have lost strength. Well, DQ8 is an RPG and CoD4 is a FPS. But like I said, CT's first real test is next round. It hasn't faced anything better than a low midcarder, if you even want to give DQ8 that much credit. Melee has faced two legitimate games and has done higher than projected each time, and without the benefit of OldFAQs, to boot. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
I'm
confused, are there people that wouldn't take LttP>FFX in
2009/today? FFX wasn't even more popular that LttP back when this site
favored FF in 2004. --- BGE3: Today's Matches CT>Persona 3, FFX>Batman: AC, SSBM>Pokemon GSC, KH2>TLoU Points 57/64 |
I would, but I'm not the best person to ask about FFX! And "the site favored FF in 2004" doesn't necessarily mean it favored FFX more. Ask FFIX about that! --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
FFVII/FFX had 47.77% in the finals compared to FF7's 47.31% against OoT alone. FF7 also had 47.64% of OoT's vote total in the finals. Ah, I'd misremembered that number, thought it was closer to a full percent. In any case, my point was that you can't really draw conclusions regarding LTTP vs. FFX by looking at the final. Looking at the past rounds is better. Now, sure, you can write off the whole contest as 4-ways, but then, when has FFX ever shown any evidence that it can hang with LTTP? Certainly not in 2004. Certainly not in GOTD, when it lost to MM. I've been calling FFX a fraud for the amount of belief that it is super elite game it has here, for 6 years. I just don't see what matches FFX has ever had to show LTTP-levels of strength. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Alright ignorant post of the day here. Can someone explain statistics to me. Like, how is it possible that a match stays at the same percentage the entire length of the 24 hour round. I could give plenty of examples, but let's just take FFX and MMX for example. 55-45% with maybe a 1% variance. How in the hell does something like that stay so consistent? I mean for every 100 people are 55 going to vote one way and 45 the other every single time? Are we all robots? Is there no variation or differences among any group of people that come vote here at any given time of the day? Now I understand there are fluctuations in some matches when the day vote or night vote happens, but for others, by and large, the percentage does not change at all practically the whole round. The fact that this happens over and over again is just hard to comprehend. It's like people have a hive mentality. You poll the first 1,000 voters and you pretty much are set for how the next 30,000 will vote. --- Don't mind me. I'm just here for the contest. |
People
are too quick to just go "lol 4 ways" as if their wonkiiness is random
and can't be explained. It usually can be.* This was the same logic that
made people discard FFX's performance in R1, despite it not much
outperforming what FFIX did in 2009 in a match that was pretty
unfavorable to the latter. *Well except for RBY/MM/MGS/GSC that is. --- "What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!" This is Yesmar. Congrats to CBIX Guru Winner *Raytan*! |
that's
not always true and certainly not today. check out the Melee/Pokemon
matchup in gamefaqscontests.com and click on TIME. check out how the
percentage fluctuates each five minute update. --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
LOLContests posted... People are too quick to just go "lol 4 ways" as if their wonkiiness is random and can't be explained. It usually can be.* This was the same logic that made people discard FFX's performance in R1, despite it not much outperforming what FFIX did in 2009 in a match that was pretty unfavorable to the latter. Well, it's a combination of LOL 4-ways and "That was 6 years ago." Like KH pointed out, a lot changes in six years. We don't notice those changes as much in Character Battles because we get to see characters practically every year and so the changes are more gradual. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
It
has to do with the amount of votes cast. Your 1 votes isn't going to
affect the percent by too much when you have so many votes. What tends
to cause percent swings is the voting preference of people of different
ages and countries. However, age is starting to matter less since there
are so few high school aged people on this site. FFX/MMX had a bit of a shift because MMX was never released in the UK and Europe tends to like FF which means FFX went up while North America went to sleep. Of course the percent has gone back to normal once North America woke up. --- BGE3: Today's Matches CT>Persona 3, FFX>Batman: AC, SSBM>Pokemon GSC, KH2>TLoU Points 57/64 |
guffguy89 posted... You poll the first 1,000 voters and you pretty much are set for how the next 30,000 will vote. I mean, take a statistics class, that is how it works. The numbers are too high to fluctuate that much. It would be weirder if for some reason you're getting very different types of people in batches of hundreds. Though you're also overestimating just how stable each individual update is. Every update has a smaller and smaller chance of affecting the percentage so naturally even a big update for a game doesn't really mean anything in the longrun unless it's a consistent trend. --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png LongLiveraytan (edited 11/21/2015 11:46:49 AM)report |
You
can get a pretty reliable result from randomly polling 1000 people,
yes. That's how they do polls for presidential elections too, and its
pretty reliable. Unless there is some systematic difference between
your 1000 and the full 40,000 group, the difference from random
variation will be very small. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
You can also reason it backwards. If you have ten thousand marbles, half black and half white, and you pick out a hundred, what are the chances the ratio of black to white will differ much more than 50/50? The variance is just too small at that big a number. Same with these. At the end of the day 55% of people favor FFX to MMX. Every update is you reaching in a pulling out a hundred people. It would be rare if you got something like 75/25 split either way. --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png LongLiveraytan |
Yes,
I have heard that about presidential polling, I am aware about the
basics of statistics, but that doesn't mean I still comprehend it fully,
although your responses have been enlightening. It's just a bit disappointing, I mean, how many matches have been correctly called at the first 5 minute update? I would love to see that number. I know undertale was rallied, and there might have been one or two other games, but it's just sad that after the first 5 minutes of voting, no one's votes really even matter for the most part. --- Don't mind me. I'm just here for the contest. (edited 11/21/2015 11:56:26 AM)report |
I do find it ironic that this question came during the day that has the most trends so far (Undertale aside) |
There have been plenty of comebacks over the years! Not everything leading after 5 minutes ends up winning! Link was beating Cloud in the first five minutes in 2003, for instance. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
guffguy89 posted... but that doesn't mean I still comprehend it Aw but it seems pretty obvious if you consider my marble analogy. Every update is literally just taking a handful of marbles. There's really no way to have wildly different results unless there's something inherently different about each pull of marbles (like blacks are all on top, analogous to FFX voters being all at night). --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png LongLiveraytan |
And the first 5 minutes cab be pretty wildly different because it features so much of Board 8. --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png LongLiveraytan |
Tomorrow
we will be seeing a big test for old games. Finally, an old game gets
to face something legit. I'm talking about FFVI vs. TTYD. If FFVI
overperforms here we can't blame it on a big fall on TTYD's part,
considering it beat Symphonia. But I bet people would blame it on
SFF...again... --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
yes,
I didn't see your marble analogy until after I posted that. I guess
that's an interesting way to look at it. Are you saying that FFX, for
example, was predestined to get 55%. Or in other words, the popular
opinion would be 55%. Now, no one knows ahead of time that this would be
the case, but it is what it is, and so each update is a pull of marbles
out of the bag that has 55% black and 45% white. If that is what you
intended to say, it makes slightly more sense. I also realize now that I'm looking at things that this was a bad day to bring this up. I guess it's just been a long time coming and I felt like today was the day I'd bring it up. Thank you all for indulging me. --- Don't mind me. I'm just here for the contest. (edited 11/21/2015 12:03:06 PM)report |
Nintendo system RPG SFF obviously! |
guffguy89 posted... Are you saying that FFX, for example, was predestined to get 55%. Or in other words, the popular opinion would be 55%. I mean yeah. People are voting in the polls already have an opinion on the games. It wasn't created at the time of the polling. --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png LongLiveraytan |
guffguy89 posted...
Bad day? It's just a question, and I like talking about stuff like that. --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png LongLiveraytan |
pjbasis posted... guffguy89 posted... Bad day simply due to the variations in some of today's matches (although the end result is still mirrors how it started more or less). --- Don't mind me. I'm just here for the contest. |
guffguy89 posted... yes, I didn't see your marble analogy until after I posted that. I guess that's an interesting way to look at it. Are you saying that FFX, for example, was predestined to get 55%. Or in other words, the popular opinion would be 55%. Now, no one knows ahead of time that this would be the case, but it is what it is, and so each update is a pull of marbles out of the bag that has 55% black and 45% white. If that is what you intended to say, it makes slightly more sense. I'd also just like to say that it's NOT "wasted votes". When you have higher vote totals the more generally popular games win. When you have lower vote totals, the "less publicly popular" games that have small dedicated fanbases tend to do better. Voter enthusiasm matters. When it comes to hour by hour trends, no you will not see too much variability outside of 5% swings because it's not like certain people wait until certain times to vote except in rare instances (ie SMRPG was not released in Europe so it took a huge hit during the peak Europe hours). The first hour will be generally representative of what people think on this site within a margin of error of 5-10 points max. It would be very weird if one game's fans all logged on at certain times of the day. It just wouldn't make sense. --- http://www.last.fm/user/VinnyMendoza "This is all we have... when we die.." |
Guys, how nuts would you and the internet go if Crono was announced in Smash Bros? --- http://www.last.fm/user/VinnyMendoza "This is all we have... when we die.." |
Pretty nuts --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png LongLiveraytan |
That
shouldn't be too surprising. This is a solid performance for The Last
of Us though, considering all the factors it's got working against it. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
transcience posted... well GSC should beat Last of Us pretty clean. KH2 might beat GSC though. so I guess 57/43ish, around what I'd expect from ffx/Melee. No way in hell does KH2 beat GSC. cmon now. |
LeonhartFour posted... That shouldn't be too surprising. This is a solid performance for The Last of Us though, considering all the factors it's got working against it. I understand, but what a world when failing to get 40% on a KH game is a "solid performance" for one of the most acclaimed games of the past few years. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
-Zelmor- posted... Melee's day vote is really one of a kind. Could be 2nd only to OoT. |
you
also have to understand that some of us have been poll watching for
over a decade now. we've gotten pretty good at calling stuff in seconds.
and we're wrong a lot still. --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
This site loves Kingdom Hearts! That's just part of it. Also KH2 vs. G/S/C would be pretty close, I think. KH2 has looked to be relatively close to RE4 in the past. Still think G/S/C wins, but maybe only with 53-54% --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
