I nailed MGS3's percentage more or less. but that's because I didn't expect a lot / I expected the Mother fanbase to not abandon its game.
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iphonesience
Yeah I was saying yesterday that I expected Mother 3 to get around 30%. So I can't say MGS3 is underperfoming, really. Mother 3 is stronger than some people here seem to think and has probably boosted since GOTD.
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Any sound can shake the air. My voice shakes the heart!
-Sho Minamimoto
updating the list of elite games. I'll try to keep this up each day. division 8 in bold today.

Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 91% on Hearthstone
Zelda: Link to the Past - 88% on Cave Story
Chrono Trigger - 86% on Ratchet and Clank 3
Mario 3 - 84% on AOE2
Mario World - 84% on Animal Crossing (pre-Undertale rally)
Final Fantasy VII - 84% on Journey
Fallout 3 - 81% on Life is Strange (pre-Undertale rally)
Mario 64 - 80% on Mario Kart 8
Metal Gear Solid - 79% on Splatoon
Super Metroid - 79% on Call of Duty 4
Mass Effect 2 - 79% on Virtue's Last Reward
Smash 4 - 79% on Planescape: Torment
Pokemon GSC - 77% on TWEWY
Final Fantasy VI - 77% on Assassin's Creed 2
Zelda: Majora's Mask - 76% on Valkyria Chronicles
Symphony of the Night - 75% on Phoenix Wright 3
Zelda: Wind Waker - 73% on Pokemon X/Y
Zelda: Twilight Princess - 72% on Skies of Arcadia
Metal Gear Solid 3 - 70% on Mother 3
Pokemon RBY - 68% on Tetris
Super Smash Bros Melee - 68% on Portal
Skyrim - 67% on Phoenix Wright (possibly skewed due to aftereffects of rally)
Super Mario Galaxy - 64% on Dragon Age: Origins
Final Fantasy X - 64% on Half-Life
Half-Life 2 - 64% on Demon's Souls
Metroid Prime - 63% on Morrowind
Kingdom Hearts 2 - 59% on MGS4
Resident Evil 4 - 59% on Paper Mario
Final Fantasy VIII - 58% on GTA: Vice City (pre-Undertale rally)
Goldeneye 007 - 56% on Diablo 2
Super Mario RPG - 54% on Oblivion
Final Fantasy IX - 51% on Kingdom Hearts
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xyzzy
No Shadow of the Colossus?
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Any sound can shake the air. My voice shakes the heart!
-Sho Minamimoto
Aw yeah DMC3 just a little weaker than MGS3
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LongLiveraytan
you're missing Persona 4 and GTAV.

So now that round 1 is over what is the weakest game in this bracket? I'd say my bottom 5 is probably

- 999
- Destiny
- Rachet and Clank 3
- Hearthstone
- cAve Story
Evillordexdeath posted...
No Shadow of the Colossus?


Januzaj_Dragon posted...
you're missing Persona 4 and GTAV.


His list is already too diluted to be "elite" as it is, stop trying to force even weaker games onto it.
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"The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima
raytan: Champ without picking the champ
Well in the case of SotC I think it's stronger than some of the games he's got on there. Certainly Mario RPG, probably many of the others.
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Any sound can shake the air. My voice shakes the heart!
-Sho Minamimoto
yeah I should be removing games, not adding them. though I'd take Mario RPG over SOTC.
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xyzzy
Prediction - GSC will totally bomb, Melee with 65%
People will discuss if GSC got SFF'd hard or it's just plain weak
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3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066
that would be quite the drop from GOTD
swirIdude posted...
Evillordexdeath posted...
No Shadow of the Colossus?


Januzaj_Dragon posted...
you're missing Persona 4 and GTAV.


His list is already too diluted to be "elite" as it is, stop trying to force even weaker games onto it.


SOTC would beat half of those games on the list.
transience posted...
yeah I should be removing games, not adding them. though I'd take Mario RPG over SOTC.


I wouldn't. art man. Art.
Silent Hill 2 should be higher.
Would you put Starcrafts Strength equal to Diablo II? If so then ME2/Starcraft will be a close match. ME2 wins 55-45 at best.
Nanis23 posted...
Prediction - GSC will totally bomb, Melee with 65%
People will discuss if GSC got SFF'd hard or it's just plain weak


People would be ignoring a third possibility in this case

Which is that Melee grew in strength since GotD
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RIP in Pieces GamerJM, 2007-2015. You will be missed. #UnPermabanJim
What reason does Melee really have to be stronger though? I guess competitive Melee is bigger than ever but really how much of the site is going to care about that. It's not like Brawl falling off a cliff is really going to make Melee stronger somehow.

It should look fine against GSC, 53-55ish seems like the range Melee'll hit to me.
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Magmortar75 posted...
What reason does Melee really have to be stronger though? I guess competitive Melee is bigger than ever but really how much of the site is going to care about that. It's not like Brawl falling off a cliff is really going to make Melee stronger somehow.

It should look fine against GSC, 53-55ish seems like the range Melee'll hit to me.


Melee has both Nostalgia and new fans though.
Magmortar75 posted...
What reason does Melee really have to be stronger though? I guess competitive Melee is bigger than ever but really how much of the site is going to care about that. It's not like Brawl falling off a cliff is really going to make Melee stronger somehow.

It should look fine against GSC, 53-55ish seems like the range Melee'll hit to me.


Nostalgia + competitive people + I have a feeling after Wii U's underperformance that for some reason Brawl people fell off a cliff which led to Melee improving (this could just be because of nostalgia as well)

Also I know most people on this site don't care about competitive Melee but it has to have SOME effect, I think. The scene's blown up in the last couple years and big tournaments are being streamed on Twitch all of the time, so it's at least something that's in the public gaming consciousnesses more than it was in like 2010, even if that doesn't have a significant effect on GameFAQs it still has an effect.

Personally I think GSC has a good chance of getting something like that on Melee due to these factors but much more due to SFF, though.
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(edited 11/20/2015 1:05:30 PM)report
Smash Wii U's....underperformance??
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Blasting off
really, Melee would be fine just matching MM's percentage on GSC, maybe aim a little higher

(I'm not really seeing SFF here, for that matter)
(edited 11/20/2015 1:09:08 PM)report
11/20/2015 1:09:59 PM#172
pjbasis posted...
Aw yeah DMC3 just a little weaker than MGS3


Even if you assume a static Mother 3, MGS3 still wins with 57%!

Utter destruction, as Ulti would say.
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redrocket_pub posted...
Smash Wii U's....underperformance??


My mistake, for some reason I remembered it getting lower than 79% on Planescape.
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_SJimW_ posted...
Magmortar75 posted...
What reason does Melee really have to be stronger though? I guess competitive Melee is bigger than ever but really how much of the site is going to care about that. It's not like Brawl falling off a cliff is really going to make Melee stronger somehow.

It should look fine against GSC, 53-55ish seems like the range Melee'll hit to me.


Nostalgia + competitive people + I have a feeling after Wii U's underperformance that for some reason Brawl people fell off a cliff which led to Melee improving (this could just be because of nostalgia as well)

Also I know most people on this site don't care about competitive Melee but it has to have SOME effect, I think. The scene's blown up in the last couple years and big tournaments are being streamed on Twitch all of the time, so it's at least something that's in the public gaming consciousnesses more than it was in like 2010, even if that doesn't have a significant effect on GameFAQs it still has an effect.

Personally I think GSC has a good chance of getting something like that on Melee due to these factors but much more due to SFF, though.


You're thinking too much on Melee. Head to the Smash 4 board--Melee and its fans are not taken very well over there. The competitive community is smaller than you think.

It should still beat G/S/C, but if Melee blows the game out it's more likely due to SFF more than anything else.
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Ole, ole, ole, ole. Ole! Ole! (Accents and inverted !-marks missing)
On a bet with three other users on if a certain girl genie will be in Smash; I say no.
What percentage does Mother 3 need to be able to get on Splatoon for MGS3 = MGS1?
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Any sound can shake the air. My voice shakes the heart!
-Sho Minamimoto
_Dog posted...
_SJimW_ posted...
Magmortar75 posted...
What reason does Melee really have to be stronger though? I guess competitive Melee is bigger than ever but really how much of the site is going to care about that. It's not like Brawl falling off a cliff is really going to make Melee stronger somehow.

It should look fine against GSC, 53-55ish seems like the range Melee'll hit to me.


Nostalgia + competitive people + I have a feeling after Wii U's underperformance that for some reason Brawl people fell off a cliff which led to Melee improving (this could just be because of nostalgia as well)

Also I know most people on this site don't care about competitive Melee but it has to have SOME effect, I think. The scene's blown up in the last couple years and big tournaments are being streamed on Twitch all of the time, so it's at least something that's in the public gaming consciousnesses more than it was in like 2010, even if that doesn't have a significant effect on GameFAQs it still has an effect.

Personally I think GSC has a good chance of getting something like that on Melee due to these factors but much more due to SFF, though.


You're thinking too much on Melee. Head to the Smash 4 board--Melee and its fans are not taken very well over there. The competitive community is smaller than you think.

It should still beat G/S/C, but if Melee blows the game out it's more likely due to SFF more than anything else.


Melee fans were taken worse on the Brawl board back in the day than they are on the Wii U board from what I've seen

Brawl/Wii U fans just hate Melee fans with a ridiculous passion, especially here, probably because GameFAQs people are a******s and SSB has one of the biggest divides within its fanbase so people are naturally going to argue, outside of Smash Wii U game boards most people probably don't give a s*** about Melee's fanbase unless they're in it and associate Melee with good times from when they were younger
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(edited 11/20/2015 1:16:27 PM)report
11/20/2015 1:14:18 PM#177
Evillordexdeath posted...
What percentage does Mother 3 need to be able to get on Splatoon for MGS3 = MGS1?


65.43%
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How much of a chance are we giving The Last of Us to win?
I'm gonna say 20%ish? I don't expect it to happen but if it did I wouldn't be shocked.
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I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
11/20/2015 1:34:07 PM#180
Well, like tranny said, it's entirely possible all TLOU did was expose Halo 3 as a fraud. Halo 1's unimpressive showing on Minecraft might corroborate that a bit.
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That would be consistent with CoD4 falling off a cliff (which I think is more likely than Super Metroid being THAT strong)
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I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
The Last of Us looked good, but I doubt it's quite on Kingdom Hearts II level-
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My old signature was really outdated. I haven't thought of a proper new one yet.
LeonhartFour posted...
Well, like tranny said, it's entirely possible all TLOU did was expose Halo 3 as a fraud. Halo 1's unimpressive showing on Minecraft might corroborate that a bit.


This. And the fact that pretty much all Gen 6, 7 & 8 FPS games have also been pretty unimpressive supports that theory.
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Yay - Raytan is the guru champion of awesomeness.
I wrote about that for the crew today. stay tuned~
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iphonesience
I don't think twitch popularity means much on this site. Melee is just the stronger game.
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Your signature is automatically appended to the bottom of every post you make. Your 'About Me' message is displayed on your profile page. You can include any in
Melee has seen a resurgence because of its competitive viability.
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"This is all we have... when we die.."
Melee isn't going to change in any of these aspects. it's going to change if the site has shifted away from being big fans of it. Smash 4 declining is a sign of Smash going down, not the fanbase preferring Melee or whatever.
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xyzzy
competitive scene would give Melee at most a boost of like, 1%

not really a gamechanger

I will say, however, that Melee is a lot more rallyable than it was before
(edited 11/20/2015 2:32:03 PM)report
Top 5 STARS and TURDS of R1:

Stars:

1) The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time

Hearthstone would beat about 15% of the games in the bracket, possibly more. So many people play it, it's got a huge player base! What Ocarina of Time did by reaching 91% was just... awesome. That game is not losing till the semifinals at the very least.

2) Starcraft

In a slightly debated match(7% of Gurus had Destiny), Starcraft goes out and puts up 74.5%. All the more important because of the weakness of the division.

3) Undertale

RALLY!

4) Mega Man X

In a debated match(30% of Gurus had Batman), Mega Man X goes out and puts up 60%. Just crushes Batman. Puts some fear into people with FFX winning in the next round.

5) Shadow of the Collosus

72.69% against Team Fortress 2(a game that would beat 10% of the games in the bracket) was an unexpected surprise. It definetely has a shot against Metal Gear Solid coming up.

Turds:

1) Super Mario Maker

Turns out the Mario name isn't enough. Getting stomped by Fire Emblem Awakening with 64.39% crushed so many brackets in the Guru(44.16% had it winning)

2) Borderlands 2

Uhhh... so this was the game of the year in 2009? Lose by 58% to Earthbound in a debated match? What a stinker of a performance

3) Final Fantasy X

Underperformed median Oracle expectations by 3%, supposed to be winning this division? Winning with only 64% against Half Life 1 was bad. Half-Life is no where close to the strength of Half-Life 2. So many people have this game winning the division(25% of gurus), yet it's not looking good against the other monsters of this Division(CT, Melee).

4) World of Warcraft

37% of Gurus had it winning. There was a potential for both EXPANSION and NEW MOVIE hype, yet people never rally for this game. Losing to Crono Cross with just 42% of the vote was ugly, didn't even make a match out of it.

5) Resident Evil 4

58.87% against Paper Mario does not inspire a lot of confidence to the majority of people taking this game to go far. Yes it's division is weak, but the game possibly dropped in strength from 2010. Maybe the numerous further games in the series have diluted somewhat the strength of 4.
(edited 11/20/2015 2:43:36 PM)report
POOTERSS posted...
Hearthstone would beat about 15% of the games in the bracket, possibly more. So many people play it, it's got a huge player base! What Ocarina of Time did by reaching 91% was just... awesome. That game is not losing till the semifinals at the very least.


Uhh, Heartstone would definitely not beat 15% of the games in the bracket. It's probably among the very weakest. Only a potential rally could make it beat anything that isn't turbo fodder. And if OoT does lose, it certainly wont be in the semi-final either. There is nothing in the bottom quarter of the bracket that can come close to it. It's obviously very likely to win, but if it does lose, it'll be in the finale.
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Wasn't RE4's performance like right what the GOTD x-stats predicted?

Unless you think Paper Mario is weaker this year just because its seed is lower lol.
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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
can't agree with most of that post - though the only thing I can say definitively is that Borderlands 2 didn't come out in '09!
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
ctesjbuvf posted...
POOTERSS posted...
Hearthstone would beat about 15% of the games in the bracket, possibly more. So many people play it, it's got a huge player base! What Ocarina of Time did by reaching 91% was just... awesome. That game is not losing till the semifinals at the very least.


Uhh, Heartstone would definitely not beat 15% of the games in the bracket. It's probably among the very weakest. Only a potential rally could make it beat anything that isn't turbo fodder. And if OoT does lose, it certainly wont be in the semi-final either. There is nothing in the bottom quarter of the bracket that can come close to it. It's obviously very likely to win, but if it does lose, it'll be in the finale.


15% of 128 games = 20 games.

Here's 20 games I would pick Hearthstone over in this contest:

1) 999
2) Virtue's Last Reward
3) Age of Empires 2
4) World Ends With You
5) Planescape Torment
6) The Walking Dead
7) Life is Strange
8) Baldur's Gate II(close one)
9) Phoenix Wright: Trials
10) Cave Story
11) Call of Duty IV
12) Shenmue
13) Binding of Issac: Rebirth
14) Splatoon
15) Bayonetta 2
16) Mother 3
17) Ratchet and Clank 3(close one)
18) Halo 3(close one)
19) Monster Hunter 4U(close one)
20) Bloodborne(close one)
Bloodborne at the very least would crush an unrallied Hearthstone.
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I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
transcience posted...
can't agree with most of that post - though the only thing I can say definitively is that Borderlands 2 didn't come out in '09!


you're right! Game of the Year for 2011, not 2009.
swirIdude posted...
So MGS3's struggling with Mother, Starcraft is crushing Destiny almost as badly as ME2 is crushing VLR. I would think Destiny is stronger than VLR...

...Starcraft to division final?


Starcraft to not only the division final, but to the SEMIFINALS!
transience posted...
Stars:

1. Chrono Trigger - This match might be overrated because it was first. Chrono Trigger went to town on a Ratchet and Clank game and got a percentage that I didn't even know it was capable of. 86% of the site hasn't even played Chrono Trigger! This was the first sign that Chrono Trigger was back in a big way.

2. Final Fantasy 6 - And if that wasn't enough, FF6 came a few days later and dropped 77% on Assassin's Creed 2. You could just as easily drop AC2 in the turd category but given what CT did, this looks like a trend.

3. Castlevania SOTN - SOTN struggled with the likes of Resident Evil 1 last we saw it. Here it is tripling up on Phoenix Wright which is made even more impressive given how PW was able to hang with Skyrim for a while.

4. Undertale - You know, there's no good metric for gauging Undertale. You could put it first with a bullet and not be wrong. The fact is that pre-rally, this little PC exclusive indie game from 2015 was able to stay within striking distance of Mass Effect 3 until the rally hit and finished the job.

5. Shadow of the Colossus - 73% on Team Fortress 2, especially after GOTD's fluke run against the MGS games, proves that it actually wasn't a fluke at all. SOTC is the rare art game that actually is a heavy hitter on this site. I'm as surprised as anyone.

6. Final Fantasy VII - The story here wasn't so much that FF7 impressed. Everyone was just so down on FF7 after the last few years have embarrassed it so much. FF7 didn't get anti-voted and put up a big number on Journey, a well-liked indie game.

7. Zelda: Wind Waker - SFF on Pokemon X/Y? Yeah, maybe. Sometimes we forget just how strong Zelda and Final Fantasy are, even the second and third tier games. Wind Waker is one that was set up to impress and it did just that.

8. Zelda: Ocarina of Time - Look, OOT is contest royalty. You expect huge things. 90% was always a possibility here just because of how beloved OOT is. But you still have to give props when it actually happens.

9. Persona 4 - If you set VLR and 999 equal, Persona 4 is basically equivalent to Mass Effect 2. Persona 3 just went down quietly to a Dragon Quest title so Persona 4's performance was all the more surprising. It's probably due to 999 weakness as much as anything but it was still an impressive showing for what is ostensibly a cult RPG. This wasn't Vyse/Laharl - it was more like Tifa/Vyse.

10. Earthbound - Few old games had as many reasons to boost as Earthbound, but it still destroyed a GOTY with very little effort. Earthbound has never won any match ever so it was nice to see it finally do something of note.


pretty good list, CT though at number 1 I don't agree with. Zelda: OOT should be higher.
1337gamerpr0 posted...
competitive scene would give Melee at most a boost of like, 1%

not really a gamechanger

I will say, however, that Melee is a lot more rallyable than it was before


I've thought about encouraging a Melee rally on r/smashbros, tbh. I think I will if the Undertale rally goes anywhere (or maybe not if I play through Undertale and decide I love it before that happens). It's a good rally game because it's something that the fans are super passionate about. Like, something like Destiny or Hearthstone has a way, way bigger fanbase, but the fanbase all has grievances with the game itself. Melee's fanbase literally thinks that the game is God and perfection incarnate.
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RIP in Pieces GamerJM, 2007-2015. You will be missed. #UnPermabanJim
(edited 11/20/2015 3:04:35 PM)report
I would pick most of those against Hearthstone. Well, we probably wont ever find out, but we can probably get some calculations later on.
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My old signature was really outdated. I haven't thought of a proper new one yet.
_SJimW_ posted...
1337gamerpr0 posted...
competitive scene would give Melee at most a boost of like, 1%

not really a gamechanger

I will say, however, that Melee is a lot more rallyable than it was before


I've thought about encouraging a Melee rally on r/smashbros, tbh. I think I will if the Undertale rally goes anywhere (or maybe not if I play through Undertale and decide I love it before that happens). It's a good rally game because it's something that the fans are super passionate about. Like, something like Destiny or Hearthstone has a way, way bigger fanbase, but the fanbase all has grievances with the game itself. Melee's fanbase literally thinks that the game is God and perfection incarnate.


DON'T DO IT. I need Gold/SIlver to smash that nub game Super Smash Bros. MAYLAY. Plus original Smash 64 is better than Melee ^)^

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