GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1212
http://38.media.tumblr.com/270d6c344b597708289ba3662319c557/tumblr_nkogwnHbL71s8pkxxo1_400.gif ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
The Koreans woke up. |
http://imgur.com/O0FrwCx --- This sentence has five words. This sentence has eight words. Only one sentence in this signature is true. |
Good news about the start of round 2 is the beginning of preliminary X-Stats! Should be fun! --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
BlackDra90n posted... We've been up for a while. You cheated back in 2002 --- Ole, ole, ole, ole. Ole! Ole! (Accents and inverted !-marks missing) On a bet with three other users on if a certain girl genie will be in Smash; I say no. |
I still feel confident picking ME2 over MGS3. --- XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak PSN ID - Kudaark Steam Name : skaalfa |
VLR has board vote and Destiny doesn't. ME2 will look more comfortable at the end of the day. Still, OLDFAQS is a concern. It's definitely not impossible for SC to go on a run. Would be pretty hilarious. And a lot of the people up top on Guru have ME2 going surprisingly far. Just by picking MGS and MGS3 I'm looking ahead of the curve there. 80% on Splatoon is a little better than 80% on VLR in my opinion. And Mother 3 is much much stronger than VLR but Mother 3 will still drop to 27% I'm guessing. --- http://www.last.fm/user/VinnyMendoza "This is all we have... when we die.." (edited 11/19/2015 9:39:59 PM)report |
This
is pretty status quo for MGS3 v ME2 (other than raising the possibility
of a Starcraft being in the way). MGS3's probably going to have an
expected performance in the 70s and ME2's facing a total unknown, so
this is probably just gonna confirm who you already have. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
Yesterday's charts: Time | MGS1 | Splatoon | Votes | Demographic EBV | 73.73% | 26.27% | 632 | (0:00-0:05) PHV | 76.23% | 23.77% | 3921 | (0:00-1:00) FNV | 80.11% | 19.89% | 7963 | (1:00-6:00) BSV | 79.98% | 20.02% | 5161 | (6:00-9:00) DSV | 79.18% | 20.82% | 9837 | (9:00-14:30) ASV | 78.47% | 21.53% | 9091 | (14:30-22:00) SNV | 80.48% | 19.52% | 1757 | (22:00-24:00) Splatoon with traditional Nintendo trends! Who'd have guessed? Time | EBound | Borderlands | Votes | Demographic EBV | 64.27% | 35.73% | 627 | (0:00-0:05) PHV | 62.64% | 37.36% | 3903 | (0:00-1:00) FNV | 57.95% | 42.05% | 7857 | (1:00-6:00) BSV | 57.00% | 43.00% | 5146 | (6:00-9:00) DSV | 58.00% | 42.00% | 9830 | (9:00-14:30) ASV | 58.77% | 41.23% | 9135 | (14:30-22:00) SNV | 60.03% | 39.97% | 1759 | (22:00-24:00) EarthBound and Borderlands are fond of whole numbers, it seems. Time | SotC | TF2 | Votes | Demographic EBV | 74.64% | 25.36% | 623 | (0:00-0:05) PHV | 73.82% | 26.18% | 3862 | (0:00-1:00) FNV | 74.34% | 25.66% | 7856 | (1:00-6:00) BSV | 73.00% | 27.00% | 5149 | (6:00-9:00) DSV | 71.77% | 28.23% | 9819 | (9:00-14:30) ASV | 71.48% | 28.52% | 9012 | (14:30-22:00) SNV | 73.35% | 26.65% | 1741 | (22:00-24:00) SotC with a strong night vote and a bad day vote, just like MGS. Time | RDR | Bayonetta 2 | Votes | Demographic EBV | 61.98% | 38.02% | 605 | (0:00-0:05) PHV | 61.11% | 38.89% | 3800 | (0:00-1:00) FNV | 61.66% | 38.34% | 7789 | (1:00-6:00) BSV | 63.96% | 36.04% | 5077 | (6:00-9:00) DSV | 65.31% | 34.69% | 9638 | (9:00-14:30) ASV | 65.31% | 34.69% | 8897 | (14:30-22:00) SNV | 66.72% | 33.28% | 1719 | (22:00-24:00) That is one stable day vote! RDR seems to have a decent one, at least. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Man to actually have a worse second night vote than MGS, Nintendo really is something right, Snake/Bowser, that was a thing, hooray Nintendo SNV --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
ME2 vs. MGS3 will be fun! But after MGS1 wrecked, I'm not so sure on my ME2 > MGS1 pick >_> --- http://i.imgur.com/l7xxLh1.jpg |
TF2's reddit thread was pretty popular compared to most failed reddit rallies: https://www.reddit.com/r/tf2/comments/3tet3s/vote_for_tf2_in_the_best_game_ever_contest_on/ Not too surprising I guess, that fanbase did outrally Fable back in Game of the Decade. Anyway, that probably explains some of SotC's bad day vote. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
alright time to go in I can't take a semifinalist seriously if you can't do better than double Mother 3. I'm starting to wonder if the intense Mother fanbase will bring in a static percentage, but if that's not it then this isn't looking great. MGS and RE4 is where I'm leaning so far. MGS3 has time to recover but I don't see this breaking 70 or 71%. --- xyzzy |
tag |
Considering mgs went up 5% from ph and earthbound dropped 5% I'm confident in mgs3 reaching 72%. --- http://www.last.fm/user/VinnyMendoza "This is all we have... when we die.." |
_Dog About a decade ago, there was another user on Board 8 that would evaluate the "winners" and "losers" of the round. I'd like to do something similar. Expect that to happen sometime tomorrow. Speaking of which, who used to do Star and Turd of each division anyway? Somebody should do that in retrospect for the contest so far, that was always interesting. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
I
feel like both Mother 3 and Zero Escape will bring in the same static
percentages, so it's too hard to tell imo. MGS > MGS3 seems all but a
lock though. --- http://i.imgur.com/l7xxLh1.jpg |
Also just for fun, every time a "new" game beat an "old" game in round 1: Final Fantasy X (2001) > Half-Life (1998) The Last of Us (2013) > Halo 3 (2007) TTYD (2004) > Symphonia (2003) KOTOR (2003) > Xenogears (1998) Smash 4 (2014) > Planescape (1999) Pokemon R/B/Y/G (1996) > Tetris (1984) Undertale (2015) > Mass Effect 3 (2012) Skyrim (2011) > Phoenix Wright (2001/2005) Twilight Princess (2006) > Skies of Arcadia (2000) Okami (2006) > Warcraft III (2002) MGSV (2015) > Perfect Dark (2000) Dark Souls (2011) > Civ V (2010) GTAV (2013) > Shenmue (1999) The Witcher 3 (2015) > Binding of Isaac (2014) Metal Gear Solid 2 (2001) > Resident Evil (1996) Resident Evil 4 (2005) > Paper Mario (2000) Bioshock (2007) > Silent Hill 2 (2001) That's 17/64. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
transience posted... alright time to go in I've said it all along. Every time MGS3 has had a chance to impress and show its strength, it has failed to do so. This is yet another example. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
It's even worse when you realize most of those 'new' games underperformed. --- http://i.imgur.com/l7xxLh1.jpg |
I
still figure MGS3 gets into the 70s once we get past the Power Hour May
It Burn A Thousand Deaths, so I'm not worried about that. But yeah, MGS is stronger than it. It always has been! --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
Did we stop doing star and turd of the round at some point? I'd thought that tradition had continued to the present.... --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
I'll throw something together tomorrow. you'll like the results! --- xyzzy |
red sox 777 posted... Did we stop doing star and turd of the round at some point? I'd thought that tradition had continued to the present.... I figured we "stopped" when we stopped having annual contests! I don't think it ever really stopped! It's just been so long since the last time we did it! --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Anyone know where the GOTD x-stats are? I think they used to be on the wiki page, but looks like someone deleted them maybe? http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Fall_2010_Contest --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Static Mother fanbase makes sense. It's a group of dedicated voters who vote for it because they really love those games. --- The only ray of light in my life is raytan7585. when thinking of Krystal, does GMUN's pants get overcrowded? ~ GMUN (edited 11/19/2015 10:00:35 PM)report |
When
I saw a decade I thought he meant Slowflake....but I really thought we
had done star and turd of the round more recently than that. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Static
fanbases have never really panned out too much when push comes to
shove. Fourways soooooooorta maybe? But OoT would be smashing Mother 3
roughly as much as it'd be projected to after this contest is said and
done, I'd bet. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
red sox 777 posted... When I saw a decade I thought he meant Slowflake....but I really thought we had done star and turd of the round more recently than that. We have! It never went away! We just haven't had a contest in two years! --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
DaruniaTheGoron posted... And a lot of the people up top on Guru have ME2 going surprisingly far. for whatever it's worth though i regret that decision immensely --- Congrats to raytan, lord of the gurus |
Static
fanbases have never shown any existence other than for jokes and
rallies. To the extent that they may exist, I think games with
independent fanbases (think Halo, which shares few fans with most things
on gamefaqs and has never been blown out or blown anything else out)
have been more static than hardcore fanbases like Chrono Trigger, which
have not shown an iota of staticness. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. (edited 11/19/2015 10:05:51 PM)report |
red sox 777 posted... (think Halo, which shares few fans with most things on gamefaqs and has never been blown out that will change in a couple of days --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
I would say super metroid for star and possibly destiny for turd. Undertale for star if we count obscene rallies. --- http://www.last.fm/user/VinnyMendoza "This is all we have... when we die.." |
Star: old games Turd: new games done --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
FFVII
will probably make Halo look really good before its done. If there's
one match where you'd expect an overperformance from static fanbases
(both Halo and Anti-FFVII), it's that one. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Updated Top 10 Top 10 Biggest Blowouts 1. LoZ: Ocarina of Time 91.03% vs. Hearthstone 8.97% - Round 1 82.06% 2. LoZ: Link to the Past 88.02% vs. Cave Story 11.98% - Round 1 76.04% 3. Chrono Trigger 85.85% vs. Ratchet & Clank: UYA 14.15% - Round 1 71.70% 4. Super Mario Bros. 3 84.17% vs. Age of Empires II 15.83% - Round 1 68.34% 5. Final Fantasy VII 84.07% vs. Journey 15.93% - Round 1 68.14% 6. Super Mario 64 80.04% vs. Mario Kart 8 19.96% - Round 1 60.08% 7. Super Metroid 79.46% vs. CoD4: Modern Warfare 20.54% - Round 1 58.92% 8. Metal Gear Solid 79.07% vs. Splatoon 20.93% - Round 1 58.14% 9. Super Smash Bros. Wii U 79.05% vs. Planescape: Torment 20.95% - Round 1 58.10% 10. SMT: Persona 4 77.80% vs. 9 Hours, 9 Persons, 9 Doors 22.20% - Round 1 55.60% Top 10 Largest Vote Gaps 1. LoZ: Ocarina of Time 36560 vs. Hearthstone 3604 Round 1 32956 2. LoZ: Link to the Past 32386 vs. Cave Story 4410 Round 1 27976 3. Chrono Trigger 33415 vs. Ratchet & Clank: UYA 5506 Round 1 27909 4. Super Mario Bros. 3 32381 vs. Age of Empires II 6091 Round 1 26289 5. Final Fantasy VII 31574 vs. Journey 5985 Round 1 25589 6. Super Mario World 40067 vs. Animal Crossing: NL 14616 Round 1 25451 7. Super Metroid 31806 vs. CoD4: Modern Warfare 8220 Round 1 23586 8. Fallout 3 37861 vs. Life is Strange 14324 Round 1 23537 9. Super Mario 64 31065 vs. Mario Kart 8 Round 1 23320 10. Metal Gear Solid 29833 vs. Splatoon 7897 Round 1 21936 Top 10 Lowest Individual Votes 1. Hearthstone Round 1 3604 2. Cave Story Round 1 4410 3. Ratchet & Clank: UYA Round 1 5506 4. Journey Round 1 5985 5. Age of Empires II Round 1 6091 6. Mario Kart 8 Round 1 7745 7. Planescape: Torment Round 1 7761 8. 9 Hours, 9 Persons, 9 Doors Round 1 7897 8. Splatoon Round 1 7897 10. Assassins Creed II Round 1 8132 --- BGE3: Today's Matches MGS3>Mother 3, BioShock>SH2, Starcraft>Destiny, ME2>VLR Points 53/60 |
LeonhartFour posted... red sox 777 posted...Did we stop doing star and turd of the round at some point? I'd thought that tradition had continued to the present.... Didn't we used to do them for each division? Of the round kind of is meaningless because that encompasses so much. creativename posted... Anyone know where the GOTD x-stats are? I think they used to be on the wiki page, but looks like someone deleted them maybe? Ah thanks :) --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
I
would expect Halo to have a stronger anti-vote than FFVII, so I don't
think that match is very good for assessing whether FFVII still gets
anti-voted to a noticeable extent. Halo is probably a lightning rod for
anti-votes against all of Microsoft as Halo is their most prized game
series. Overall hate for Microsoft is much higher because of their
awful 2013 in terms of bad PR and their handling of the Xbox One. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
L-Block was staticy. Not much else ever has been that I can recall. I really don't think Mother will qualify. As KH said, OoT would likely do about as expected on Mother 3 based on whatever happens (barring Undertale type stuff messing up stats). red sox 777 posted... I think games with independent fanbases (think Halo, which shares few fans with most things on gamefaqs and has never been blown out or blown anything else out) I don't think Halo can't be blown out at all, and it can also blow out the properly weak opponent. But yes as you say, that's more lack of SFF overlap than staticness. red sox 777 posted... FFVII will probably make Halo look really good before its done. If there's one match where you'd expect an overperformance from static fanbases (both Halo and Anti-FFVII), it's that one. FF7 smash, IMO. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
If
we did stars and turds for every division this contest, you'd have to
do it every other day. From round 2 onwards, every single day! --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
Since you all seem to be begging for turds, I'll give them to you! wait what Anyway, I'll just do one of each per division (Your mileage may vary) Division I Star: The Last of Us - This really stands out more and more to me as we've seen new games flop left and right thus far. Yeah, it's just Halo 3, but it was still really impressive. Division I had a few really good performances though. You could throw CT or MMX here, too. Turd: Metal Gear Solid 4 - Yeah, I thought KH2 would win easily, but not THAT easily. Division II Star: Final Fantasy VI - AC2 was no pushover in GOTD, and FFVI fodderized it. Turd: Pokemon X/Y - I guess. There aren't really any standout bad performances here. Maybe Galaxy 2, but I expected ME1 to win! Division III Star: Undertale - I mean, come on. What else is it gonna be? Turd: Pokemon R/B/Y - That showing on Tetris quickly made everyone start to rethink the Mario 3 match next round, until Undertale made us re-rethink it, anyway. Division IV Star: Persona 4 - I guess. Just because it went so high. No real standout "great" performances in this division for round 1. Turd: Skyrim - There are reasons to believe PW1 has legit strength, but you gotta do better than a mere doubling if you want to be considered "elite." Division V Star: Ocarina of Time - It's still the champ. Honorable mention to SOTN. Turd: Super Mario Maker - Probably emblematic (get it) of how bad newer Mario games have done in these contests in general. Division VI Star: Super Metroid - Nothing else comes close. Turd: Metal Gear Solid V - I had low expectations for its strength, but this was still a pretty bad showing. Division VII Star: Chrono Cross - I suppose. It would've been Mario RPG based on the first hour, but 'whoops' Euro vote. Turd: Grand Theft Auto V - 62% on a Dreamcast exclusive? Yikes. Division VIII Star: EarthBound - I will reluctantly give it some props. Honorable mention to Shadow of the Colossus. Turd: Destiny - LOL Destiny. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
red sox 777 posted... FFVII will probably make Halo look really good before its done. If there's one match where you'd expect an overperformance from static fanbases (both Halo and Anti-FFVII), it's that one. I think the anti-Halo group will cancel out the anti-FFVII group. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Why do you think Halo will do anything other than get embarrassed by FF7 anyway, red? It is a match that should have a near total lack of SFF, so they are independent, but Halo would never in its entire contest career been anything but smashed there I think. And now more so than ever. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
LeonhartFour posted... Turd: Super Mario Maker - Probably emblematic (get it) of how bad newer Mario games have done in these contests in general. booooooo (edited 11/19/2015 10:20:35 PM)report |
I don't know why X/Y or Maro Maker would be turds, when they're literally expected to be turds. |
It
will be smashed, but I think it'll do better than in the x-stats than
if it ran directly into OOT. That in turn might be slightly better than
if it faced something like CT which then ran into OOT. I think
historically FFVII has had trouble getting super blowouts commensurate
with its super strength. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
