GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1211
Although if consensus is OoT > FF7 in the finals with 53%~ I'm a bit confused with the proclamations of its invincibility; that's not a very big margin to make up! It's not invincible, it's lost 1 out of 2 contests it's been in! That's 50%! A whole one HALF chance of losing.......it's enough to leave Zelda fans quaking in their boots, isn't it? --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
1337gamerpr0 posted... like seriously, I wonder what Awakening's playrate on this site even is? http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5850-over-the-last-25-years-how-many-games-in-the-fire-emblem 60% at most looks like --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Wasn't Link was on pace to surpass and thrive in that match before the site went down? --- http://i.imgur.com/l7xxLh1.jpg |
Let's not forget that Fire Emblem got 60-40'd by KotOR. There's no way it'd beat Awakening. --- All the stars in the sky are waiting for you. |
Karma Hunter posted... People said it was impossible to rally against Link and, again, I repeat, he was never truly in that match despite a preposterously herculean effort on the part of GameFAQs as a whole. Tumblr users who have clicked through the notes to vote in that theoretical final, when Undertale is on the precipice of completing its Cinderella, aren't going to abandon it there. It WAS virtually impossible to rally against Link. Without Shepard that match isn't close. Without downtime Link probably wins. It was very likely a true fluke. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
tazzyboyishere posted... Wasn't Link was on pace to surpass and thrive in that match before the site went down? Theoretically, but it's pretty likely Reddit would've doubled down the same way they did when Snake threatened to come back in the finals. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
creativename posted... Karma Hunter posted...Draven wasn't even at full strength (MMX/Ryu) and Link was still never truly in the match. Undertale's chances of losing if it makes it all the way - think about how many titans it will have toppled at this point - all the way to OoT are roughly nil. Because Draven would have immediately shot back up however many thousands of votes he needed to blow Link to kingdom come. There were always more rally votes that could have flooded forth the second Link actually threatened (and the few times it looked as if he almost could, Draven smacked him back effortlessly each time). --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
SOTC looks stunningly good here, quite possibly the 4th strongest non-Nintendo/Square game on this site. --- Man is not the creature of circumstances. Circumstances are the creatures of man. |
-Zelmor- posted... SOTC looks stunningly good here, quite possibly the 4th strongest non-Nintendo/Square game on this site. that's a strange distinction to give it what's your top 3? --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Draven wasn't even at full strength (MMX/Ryu) and Link was still never truly in the match. Undertale's chances of losing if it makes it all the way - think about how many titans it will have toppled at this point - all the way to OoT are roughly nil. Link was in the match because he was able to feed off of Draven's own rallies, bringing Draven down to something manageable, by taking away a very significant percentage of his Reddit support. Allen confirmed that the rallied votes in that match split 60-40 for Draven. Link had his own rallies, but was probably faring no worse than 70-30 among people rallied from the League of Legends subreddit. MMX and Ryu, on the other hand, got obliterated among the rallied votes. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Oh
right, and of course, had Draven truly felt threatened (like he did
when Snake was about to pass him in the finals) and introduced Link to
the League of Stickies, Link would've been lucky to maintain any dignity at all. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
Yeah,
I don't buy that at all. Link was shredding through that Draven lead,
if I remember right, until the site had that goofy downtime that killed
all the momentum. Even then, that match was entirely competitive despite
fighting against the fanbase of the single biggest game on the planet
and a huge website like Reddit. The Titans we're taking about Undertale
beating got diced by Animal Crossing. Ocarina is a different beast than
anything else. If Undertale gets that far it'll be a close match, but
Ocarina's natural strength here on top of its own rallies I don't see it
losing. Tumblr's not gonna be able to do that. If it does just shut it
all down wrap it up the world has lost the villains win --- satoru iwata (edited 11/18/2015 10:02:22 PM)report |
are we still pretending the Draven/MMX/Ryu match was legit? |
f*** I was so off the mark with taking Borderlands 2 in this match. I didn't even consider Earthbound --- 44/52 pts - GameFAQs' 20th Anniversary Best. Game. Ever. Contest! NP: Witcher 3/MGS2/Fallout: New Vegas/Resident Evil 4 |
1337gamerpr0 posted... are we still pretending the Draven/MMX/Ryu match was legit? it didn't have to be for Draven to do it to Link --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Well,
my original point I guess is that Undertale isn't going to be as strong
with rallies as Draven with rallies. OoT will be on par with Link. And I
guarantee you that it gets rallied if people see it struggling with
Undertale of all things. --- http://i.imgur.com/l7xxLh1.jpg |
Karma Hunter posted... creativename posted...Karma Hunter posted...Draven wasn't even at full strength (MMX/Ryu) and Link was still never truly in the match. Undertale's chances of losing if it makes it all the way - think about how many titans it will have toppled at this point - all the way to OoT are roughly nil. Hardly. Draven was getting smashed during peak hours, the rally was still going then and he could do nothing. Draven didn't have infinite rally powers. I disagree completely, but I think we'll just have to agree to disagree here because your assumptions seem very different than mine :) --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Link
was shredding through Draven's lead because Draven was letting him.
Snake got closer to Draven than Link ever did! The fact that he didn't
go down as hard as Link did initially isn't his fault, but it's still
pretty much indisputable that the LoL subreddit could have stickied the
link to the match just like they did in the Snake match if they had
wanted. And that was unbeatable on every front. --- Welcome to the League of Stickies. |
Board 8 couldn't even rally Link to beat Jay Solano I mean come on now --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Link
was ripping into Draven at 1000-1500 votes per hour before and right
after the downtime. Draven did make a big push in the afternoon with a
big rally, which reversed Link's gains and added 3000 more votes to the
lead.....at which time Link did the impossible and started pulling in
updates as big as Draven's biggest rallied updates with his own rally,
that ran out of time at the end when Allen refused to extend the poll to
make up the downtime. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Karma Hunter posted... Oh right, and of course, had Draven truly felt threatened (like he did when Snake was about to pass him in the finals) and introduced Link to the League of Stickies, Link would've been lucky to maintain any dignity at all. To be fair, they only did that because Smurf tricked the mods into doing it. --- No amount of rallying would let me beat raytan7585. Congrats to raytan7585 for winning the CB9 Guru Contest! |
red sox 777 posted... Draven wasn't even at full strength (MMX/Ryu) and Link was still never truly in the match. Undertale's chances of losing if it makes it all the way - think about how many titans it will have toppled at this point - all the way to OoT are roughly nil. Yes. I think the problem is that people are looking at this from the point of view of OUR x-stats with MMX and Ryu. Reddit ralliers are going to have totally different preferences to us. Look how alien the Tumblr results were to our own. Link appeared to be vastly stronger among Reddit ralliers than MMX and Ryu. Likely a much bigger gap than on this site. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery (edited 11/18/2015 10:10:16 PM)report |
Team Rocket Elite posted... Karma Hunter posted...Oh right, and of course, had Draven truly felt threatened (like he did when Snake was about to pass him in the finals) and introduced Link to the League of Stickies, Link would've been lucky to maintain any dignity at all. Yeah, that would have won Draven the match, but it was a total human factor that was incredibly unlikely to happen there - I doubt Smurf even got the notion until later. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
creativename posted...
true, and this is also why Super Mario World will hold up better against FFVIII than against Animal Crossing with tumblr! |
Karma Hunter posted... The fact that he didn't go down as hard as Link did initially isn't his fault Yeah, the David Hayter tweet was the only reason Draven couldn't build up as large of a lead on Snake compared to Link before Snake started making a comeback in the morning. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
Stop over-hyping new games to beat old ones guys. --- Cranky's Advice - "git gud" Oh yea, I guess raytan won. |
1337gamerpr0 posted... true, and this is also why Super Mario World will hold up better against FFVIII than against Animal Crossing with tumblr! no way FFVIII's bishie yaoi fanfic factor is too strong --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
1337gamerpr0 posted... creativename posted... Well I agree in the sense that Animal Crossing has reasons to be one of their strongest games, FF8 does not. But I won't try to predict the preferences of Tumblr. Would've thought FF8 was too old for them but it seems they like it. Any Tumblr people wanna chime in? --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
I
don't go on tumblr but I know a lot of people that do. My one friend in
particular that uses it a lot loves Animal Crossing, and also plays
Pokemon, The Sims, Splatoon, and Hearthstone. There's definitely a few
others but those are the ones I know off-hand. She has a 3DS and Wii U,
along with a PC. Another friend of mine that uses tumblr only really plays Pokemon. He also plays League of Legends occasionally. Both are friends/dating people that are really into Nintendo though. I play quidditch (yes I'm serious) and their tastes fall a lot in line with the tumblr crowd. If you guys ever want to know what tumblr would vote for just ask me. --- Cranky's Advice - "git gud" Oh yea, I guess raytan won. (edited 11/18/2015 10:24:20 PM)report |
Holy s*** there's still like 6 0 brackets left. That's impressive as hell --- 44/52 pts - GameFAQs' 20th Anniversary Best. Game. Ever. Contest! NP: Witcher 3/MGS2/Fallout: New Vegas/Resident Evil 4 |
There goes 6 brackets. --- Cranky's Advice - "git gud" Oh yea, I guess raytan won. |
Undertale's
playrate is nowhere near League of Legends's and ME3 is incredibly
polarizing. It might beat Fallout 3 but once you get to the more
universally played titles on the site it's going to falter. If RBY meets
it there it's going to lose. |
VeryInsane posted... Undertale's playrate is nowhere near League of Legends's and ME3 is incredibly polarizing. It might beat Fallout 3 but once you get to the more universally played titles on the site it's going to falter. If RBY meets it there it's going to lose. Can confirm. Pokemon is king on tumblr. --- Cranky's Advice - "git gud" Oh yea, I guess raytan won. |
it would've been incredibly hilarious if we had Undertale vs Pokemon X/Y round 1 and X/Y just completely sponged the rally |
Hourly Votals for Link vs. Draven: Hour | Link | Draven 24| 2464 | 1758 23| 2616 | 2432 22| 2403 | 1777 21| 2254 | 1703 20| 2551 | 1602 19| 2236 | 2008 18| 3310 |2150 17| 2055 | 2929 16| 2064 | 3254 15| 2428 | 2231 14| 1294 |711 13| 1109 | 504 12| 2377 |1461 11| 2222 | 1603 10| 1934 | 1607 9| 1610 | 1648 8| 1356 |1620 7| 1206 | 1789 6| 1187 | 1922 5| 1543 | 2488 4| 816 |2887 3| 2547 |3597 2| 3797 |4370 1| 5428 |6160 Notice what happens at hour 15, when Draven's afternoon rally starts. Draven's vote intake jumps about 2500 per hour.....and Link's jumps about 1100! That's Link feeding off the Draven rally. Then from hour 18 on, Link pulls off his own counterrally, and outdoes anything in Draven's afternoon rally. The only hours that got more votes than Link's hour 18 were 2 Link hours and 3 Draven hours at the beginning of the poll, which benefitted from high natural votals, excitement for the match, and most importantly, the main Draven rally was started before the match began, and was fully ready to go at midnight when it started. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
The
other thing to notice is that rallies fade. The vote intake drops off
after the first hour or two, which makes complete sense, as Reddit or
anywhere else you can rally is not an inexhaustible source of voters,
and the same voters can only vote once. As a rally drags on, a higher
and higher percentage of the people over there seeing it have already
voted. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
1337gamerpr0 posted... true, and this is also why Super Mario World will hold up better against FFVIII than against Animal Crossing with tumblr! FFVIII didn't even do that much better on Tumblr compared to our normal voting base and I'd probably expect GTA to be a fairly low tier series on Tumblr. Super Mario World simply sucked during the rally not because the game isn't popular on Tumblr, but because of Animal Crossing being very strong there. I don't expect Tumblr to really swing the percentages of the FFVIII/SMW match that much. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
The
tumblr rally didn't consistently fade though. It kept spiking,
presumably whenever someone popular shared the note or whatever. It also
exploded right at the end. --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
Well, the Tumblr rally also started only like 7 hours before the match ended. It'll be hard to maintain for 24 hours. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Although,
how much do they like FO3? That turbo guy said it was fairly well
respected there, and unlike SMW I don't think it lost updates. <_< --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
Fallout
3 actually didn't lose a single update to Life is Strange after the
rally started. Although since the rally wasn't targeted towards Life is
Strange, that is a reason why there wasn't a larger percentage of
Tumblr voters going for Life is Strange. The voting preference of
Tumblr would probably be even higher in favor of Life is Strange if the
rally was specifically targeting that game. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
well
of course, but this is a decent way of measuring how the site would
break normally (yeah I know self-selection would play a big role here,
but it's better than a direct rally) that being said, how much of the rallied votes did Life is Strange pick up? I remember there were calculations done for all 4 matches (SMW got like 36%, I think) |
LeonhartFour posted... Well, the Tumblr rally also started only like 7 hours before the match ended. I believe it actually started around the beginning of the match; it just took 17 hours or whatever to hit critical mass on Tumblr. I wouldn't be surprised if it did so much earlier next time, though I'm guessing it'll still take at least a few hours (hopefully it'll stall when the US is asleep while Europe votes for Fallout) --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Life
is Strange got about 55% of the rallied votes against Fallout 3. This
is probably higher for a rally specifically targeting that game. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
LeonhartFour posted... Well, the Tumblr rally also started only like 7 hours before the match ended. They were very consistent throughout the 7 hours and 20 minutes. I don't see how they would have difficulty with rallying for longer. -LusterSoldier- posted... Fallout 3 actually didn't lose a single update to Life is Strange after the rally started. Although since the rally wasn't targeted towards Life is Strange, that is a reason why there wasn't a larger percentage of Tumblr voters going for Life is Strange. The voting preference of Tumblr would probably be even higher in favor of Life is Strange if the rally was specifically targeting that game. Didn't you make a projected vote without Tumblr and show that both Life is Strange and Animal Crossing flat-out won there? If Tumblr manages to rally for 24 hours, it's goodbye to Fallout 3 and Mario World. Only Pokemon R/B/Y and Ocarina of Time can stop from there. --- Ole, ole, ole, ole. Ole! Ole! (Accents and inverted !-marks missing) On a bet with three other users on if a certain girl genie will be in Smash; I say no. |
And
of course, Draven still ended up below 50% against both Snake/Samus and
Link/Shepard. Link/Shepard in particular won by over 13,000 votes. I
haven't done the calculations, but I'm betting Snake was pretty popular
on Reddit and getting a lot of votes from the Draven rally, too, which
is how he held up quite well, even with Samus as a lead weight dragging
him down. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
_Dog posted... Didn't you make a projected vote without Tumblr and show that both Life is Strange and Animal Crossing flat-out won there? Those weren't my projections. creativename did those instead. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
_Dog posted... They were very consistent throughout the 7 hours and 20 minutes. I don't see how they would have difficulty with rallying for longer. Because no rally has an inexhaustible amount of votes. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
-LusterSoldier- posted... Fallout 3 actually didn't lose a single update to Life is Strange after the rally started. Although since the rally wasn't targeted towards Life is Strange, that is a reason why there wasn't a larger percentage of Tumblr voters going for Life is Strange. The voting preference of Tumblr would probably be even higher in favor of Life is Strange if the rally was specifically targeting that game. Yeah I think Fallout 3 held up remarkably well. --- Board 8's Voice of Reason http://i.imgur.com/chXIw06.jpg |
Other
sites are subject to increases and decreases in activity too. The 7
hours that rally was going were peak hours for internet traffic in North
America (5 - midnight eastern, 2-9 PM Pacific). The reason Gamefaqs
vote intake is not above average in these hours is that many voters have
already earlier in the day, for instance at the beginning of the poll
on the previous evening. But the rally would eventually run into slower
time periods, and when it got back into high activity periods, it would
face the problem that many people have already voted. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
