GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1210
Chrono Cross is going to win two matches, and SMRPG might actually make the semifinals. Holy s***. ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
UltimaterializerX posted... Chrono Cross is going to win two matches http://199.101.98.242/media/images/35749-Super_Mario_RPG_-_Legend_of_the_Seven_Stars_(USA)-14.jpg --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
I
think people have just moved on feom Oblivion / realized it sucks after
Skyrim came out / vote totals are even lower now than the last games
contest (I think). --- David Hayter Seriously, Who in the hell is "Draven?" (Sounds like a draggy crow.) (edited 11/16/2015 10:16:06 PM)report |
I need to rewrite my Chrono Cross review. I've really come to respect the game recently. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
The Real Truth posted... I think people have just moved on feom Oblivion / realized it sucks after Skyrim came out / vote totals are even lower now than the last games contest (I think). I agree with this, though my friends prefer Oblivion over Skyrim. --- Video Games are pretty cool. |
UltimaterializerX posted... I need to rewrite my Chrono Cross review. I've really come to respect the game recently. http://rs304.pbsrc.com/albums/nn180/Type0-/1253078576351.jpg~c200 --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png LongLiveraytan |
LeonhartFour posted... UltimaterializerX posted...Chrono Cross is going to win two matches http://gamesretrospect.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Chrono-Cross-Screenshot.jpg --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png LongLiveraytan |
Ive
had SMRPG > Resident Evil 4 since bracket opened. I feel like while
the match will be close the RE4 bias on this board is making them
somewhat overestimating RE4 80+% of Gurus choosing it seems a bit much where I feel like Mario RPG should have at least had 30% support (instead of 8% somehow) --- Anime List: http://myanimelist.net/profile/superange VG List: http://myvideogamelist.com/profile/superange128 Visual Novels: https://vndb.org/u6633/votes |
leave it to pjbasis to post a screenshot of the worst line in the game and why Kid is such an annoying character --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Also this board doesn't have an RE4 bias any more than it has a Mario bias. People are picking RE4 to win because it's a proven commodity. The only recent data we have on Mario RPG is losing twice to GoldenEye. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
San Andreas just passed Chrono Cross's percentage number. --- "What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!" This is Yesmar. Congrats to CBIX Guru Winner *Raytan*! |
so both GTA games have the highest percentages of the day what a turnaround time to believe in GTA again --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Based on Crono/Vincent 2007, Super Mario RPG wins with 51.28%. Don't laugh too hard, the trend dynamics are actually very similar here (one game strong in Europe, the other never released in Europe, one game strong with the Power Hour, the other weak with the Power Hour). Oblivion's Power Hour isn't nearly as bad as FFVII's of course, but SMRPG's is somewhat better than CT's, and SMRPG is actually even worse with the dead zone than CT is (yes, it's possible, just very rare). --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. (edited 11/16/2015 11:52:43 PM)report |
SMRPG
actually has been released in Europe, but only in the form of a Wii
Virtual Console release. Despite that, it hasn't really improved the
game's standing in Europe. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
Luckily,
Chrono Cross was released in Europe, and has trends much more similar
to the Playstation Final Fantasies than to Chrono Trigger. So we don't
need to worry about collapses there, barring a rally of course. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
I
actually checked Chrono Cross's performance in Europe from previous
matches and it's really weak in the UK and a few other European
countries. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
And
there's cuts #2 and #3 for Oblivion, in consecutive updates. Cut #1 was
at 2:11. Vincent got his first cut on Crono at 1:40 and had 4 cuts by
this time. That makes a lot of sense given that SMRPG is a little over
1% higher than Crono was! --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
always with the Vincent/Crono comparisons the trends have been diluted too much to expect a swing of that magnitude from Oblivion It might get within 55/45, but it's not going to make a serious run at this. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
I
don't think this is really that great from SMRPG. 56/44 on Oblivion
when most western games have been sucking it up shouldn't be threatening
RE4 or MGS. --- We are living our lives Abound with so much information |
SMRPG > Oblivion > CC > GTAV > SA > Shenmue > WoW > Shovel Knight? Or flip flop Oblivion and CC. --- Formerly known as Dilated Chemist |
the trends have been diluted too much to expect a swing of that magnitude from Oblivion The night trends haven't! Only the day trends, which in past years would have been where CT and SMRPG diverged. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
SMRPG by the Hour: 1:00 | 59.90% 2:00 | 55.59% 3:00 | 54.80% 4:00 | 53.62% That's an extreme dropoff from the first to second hour, balanced by a mild dropoff from the 2nd to the 3rd hour. Based on Crono/Vincent 2007, SMRPG wins with 51.12% Based on Crono/Vincent 2008, SMRPG wins with 53.65% The contrast between the 2007 and 2008 matches is actually quite huge. Bracket-voting and Crono's rally at the end only explains about half of it, I think. 2008 is probably more relevant today, just because of how otherworldly that 2007 shift was. The only thing with bigger trend shifts we've seen are bandwagons and massive rallies. The scary thing is, thus far SMRPG has actually fallen off faster than Crono did in 2007, even. This hour is where Vincent really went berserk on our poor hero, so we'll see how well those trends will hold up tonight. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
I'm so confused as to what Crono/Vincent has to do with anything. --- "Max... I'll always be with you. Forever..." |
And right on cue, Oblivion cuts two in a row, including a 57% update. Darn you Europe and your hatred for SNES RPGs. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
I'm so confused as to what Crono/Vincent has to do with anything. I do trend projections based on analog matches that should have similar trends. It's a long-standing sort of joke to compare matches to Vincent/Crono 2007, because that match had one of the biggest trend shifts ever, and is usually not particularly relevant. In tonight's case, I think it's actually a lot more on point than you'd think, because SMRPG and CT always had very similar trends, except for the day vote, which has weakened to the point of nonexistence. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
I would definitely take WoW to beat Shenmue. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
f*** off gta v. |
I just checked the results. This is what I have to say: 1st match=I don't understand why people here hate GTA games so much. They don't come out every year and they are amazing. I don't understand. 2nd match=Of course an old RPG would beat one of the best games ever! Of course. 3rd match=See 1st match thoughts! 4th match=An RPG that few people have played is beating the most influental MMO ever. Of course. Playstation faqs? --- Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing? |
Oblivion cracks 44% |
SMRPG by the Hour: 1:00 | 59.90% 2:00 | 55.59% 3:00 | 54.80% 4:00 | 53.62% 5:00 | 49.34% Oblivion wins its first hour, right on schedule as we cross into the dead zone and Europe is ascendant. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Crono/Vincent trends will never again be relevant IMO. Those days are over. It's too bad, extreme trends were some of the best parts of the matches. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
I had Oblivion going fairly deep, welp. there goes bracket --- 42/48 pts - GameFAQs' 20th Anniversary Best. Game. Ever. Contest! NP: GTA V/Oblivion/GTA San Andreas/World of Warcraft |
I got all 4 matches here correct next round, however....there goes bracket |
To
the contrary, Crono/Vincent trends were 80%+ finished by 9 AM. Trends
are still real and extreme during the first 9 hours of the match. SMRPG
is actually collapsing a bit worse than Crono in 2008 tonight. It's
just the last 15 hours of the poll that have become trendless. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Oh
jeeze didn't realize Oblivion has actually been cutting. ~80 votes over
the past hour and a half. Obviously won't be enough, but man these
geographical differences are pretty extreme. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Oblivion doubled SMRPG on one update about half an hour ago. These low votals can make individual updates especially wild. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
C'mon Shovel Knight --- satoru iwata |
SMRPG by the Hour: 1:00 | 59.90% 2:00 | 55.59% 3:00 | 54.80% 4:00 | 53.62% 5:00 | 49.34% 6:00 | 48.34% SMRPG gets a big gain of 22 on the last update to salvage 48% for the hour. That's a swing of 11.56% from the first hour to the 6th hour. Not quite Crono/Vincent's 14% in 2008 or 15% in 2007, but still pretty impressive. Based on Crono/Vincent 2007, SMRPG wins with 51.63%. Based on Crono/Vincent 2008, SMRPG wins with 53.73%. After initially losing ground to the projection during the first half of the night, SMRPG has gained some ground now by not collapsing in the dead zone quite as hard as Crono did. My guess is Crono/Vincent 2008 will end up being more or less accurate for today- and the main difference between 2007 and 2008 is, of course, that Vincent couldn't gain anything with the day vote in 2008. It was a long stall, just like day votes are this year! --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
ha, Crono/Vincent will never die for red sox this feels so much more sane now than it did after the first hour. that's one hell of a drop. I'm excited to see smrpg fall from grace in future matches. L-Block didn't fall this hard. --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
If
this match had been at 59% after half an hour instead of 62%, we could
be on our way to a very close finish. I'm glad SMRPG isn't going to
drop this, doesn't look good for future rounds though........I have it
going far. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Just checked the match for the first time in a few hours. wow SMRPG under 55% --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? |
SMRPG by the Hour: 1:00 | 59.90% 2:00 | 55.59% 3:00 | 54.80% 4:00 | 53.62% 5:00 | 49.34% 6:00 | 48.34% 7:00 | 49.89% Oblivion wins its third consecutive hour. Votals and SMRPG recovered a bit that hour from the lows of the dead zone. Once upon a time this was the Before School Vote, but it has lost its punch, just like the After School Vote. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
I'd
take Oblivion > WoW without any fear, so I'm still pretty confident
in SMRPG dispatching Chrono Cross. Definitely upset potential there
though. Can't see the GTAs achieving much next round since they're
letting the likes of Shovel Knight and Shenmue get near 40%. --- We are living our lives Abound with so much information |
Imagine SMRPG's strength if it even had an average night vote. Does anyone take anything in this 8-pack over Oblivion besides SMRPG? --- BGE3: Today's Matches GTAV>Shenmue, SMRPG>Oblivion, GTA:SA>SK, CC>WoW Points 42/48 |
red sox 777 posted... Luckily, Chrono Cross was released in Europe, and has trends much more similar to the Playstation Final Fantasies than to Chrono Trigger. So we don't need to worry about collapses there, barring a rally of course. Uhh, no it wasn't. We Europeans always kept getting the short end of the jrpg-stick. The SNES era was a f***ing wasteland, with Secret of Mana and Secret of Evermore being the only Square games released here. The PSX was a little better, where we at least got the Final Fantasys (except Tactics), but secondary series like Chrono Cross or Xenogears were still skipped. |
I have played CC here and back then I didn't even know what Internet was. You sure it wasn't release at all in Europe? --- Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing? |
the
thing with Mario RPG is that it's really nostalgia fueled. people don't
still talk about it today that much. Europe found CT through word of
mouth but you're not gonna get that with Mario RPG. that's why it has
joke trends. --- xyzzy |
Chrono Cross was never released in Europe, no. --- Geothermal terpsichorean ejectamenta |
SMRPG
always disappointed me, strength-wise. Its seems like the perfect
rallying point. Its Mario + Final Fantasy, on SNES, in a JRPG format.
Its like you went in a lab and tried to create the Ultimate
Stereotypical GameFAQs voter bait, SMRG would come out. I mean it did beat SF2(?!?), but eh. 55% on Elder Scrolls aint s***. Bout to get beat down by RE4. --- Communists |
I played SMRPG about 5-6 years ago and I didn't really like it. Makes sense if the thing is liked for being the first Mario RPG, but it pales in comparison to the other Mario RPGs that came after it. My main issue with it is that it feels more like a generic square RPG that happens to have Mario characters in it, than an actual Mario game. |
