GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1203
LeonhartFour posted... pjbasis posted...5. Final Fantasy VIII – Round 1 – 32008 Wait until the Hearthstone rally! Skyrim's looking kinda meh so far but again rally spillover plus Board 8 vote so I'll wait awhile to see. I haven't lost all faith yet but even now it's only flirting with 70% updates so I just have to hope once the day hits it starts crushing with 80% updates. That or Blizzard fans end up preferring Skyrim over Phoenix Wright once the Diablo II rally hits. e: Speaking of which, Goldeneye/Diablo II is stalled right now and Diablo II even got a couple tiny cuts in. You guys may want to watch that for awhile. --- Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy IX - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3729662 Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64 (edited 11/11/2015 2:20:41 AM)report |
Not_Wylvane posted... KamikazePotato posted...For the record, Undertale rally guy says: This is more or less what I thought - it sucks to see that contests are like this now but we should just suck it up and move on. Is it really the end of the world if these contests' outcomes are always decided by outside influence? EVERY OTHER SITE would actually encourage that and all of us have just become overly used to characters having set strengths and what not. Anyway Half-Life 2 seems to be bleeding percent more slowly than the Western-developed Nintendo duo, though that can probably be explained by HL2 being more night-oriented. Souls stuff is probably even more night-oriented though. So if I know my trends correctly, Skyrim and Goldeneye should start increasing a lot during the daytime while HL2 merely erases Demon's Souls's night progress and Prime slows down its % bleed (due to Elder Scrolls being a day vote champ). --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil (edited 11/11/2015 2:27:41 AM)report |
After
the fourth hour in today's matches, the number of extra votes from the
rally spill over seems to have really died down significantly. I made
an edit to the following post containing a longer analysis of the rally
spill over effect: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/72800044/836301472 --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
Hell yeah haha! I was watching the percentages at work today. Couldn't believe what I was seeing! Nice rally haha |
LinkMarioSamus posted... This is more or less what I thought - it sucks to see that contests are like this now but we should just suck it up and move on. Is it really the end of the world if these contests' outcomes are always decided by outside influence? EVERY OTHER SITE would actually encourage that and all of us have just become overly used to characters having set strengths and what not. The problem here, as another user explained, is that it turns the prediction contest something from educated guesses and skill into something with luck now, luck at guessing what game is going to get rallied to victory. If people entered the contest in an attempt to win the prize, then these guys got really screwed over. Shall we raise the white flag, nonetheless? Or do you think the rallying can be countered? --- Ole, ole, ole, ole. Ole! Ole! (Accents and inverted !-marks missing) On a bet with three other users on if a certain girl genie will be in Smash; I say no. |
Literally the only problem is the predicting the contest. Anyway now Prime's number on Morrowind is not even 1.5% higher than Half-Life 2's on Demon's Souls. Still feel like Metroid probably wins again, but who knows? Feels like Half-Life 2 is slowly fading from public consciousness while Nintendo fans won't forget Metroid Prime. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil (edited 11/11/2015 2:51:53 AM)report |
Not_Wylvane posted... It's just a guy passionate about a game he really likes and he was excited to see it do well so he encouraged people to come vote for it, which pretty much every person here has done at some point, though obviously they're less popular than this guy. Understandable and it must be a great feeling to see something like this work out and seeing one of your favorite games make a huge comeback to win thanks to the support of thousands of fans and other people in your community. Yeah I'm not a fan of the outside influence but I don't really fault the guy. Hopefully the people contacting him were doing so respectfully, but I'm not holding my breath. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
The topic is still up and he just checked in again like an hour ago --- Board 8's Voice of Reason http://i.imgur.com/chXIw06.jpg |
Can someone post the 5 biggest comebacks of the contests? Thanks. --- Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing? |
Does anyone know on what date the Quarterfinals begin? Also when is the Division III finals - presumably R/B or SMB3 vs SMW or Undertale? (Man that I actually have to write "or Undertale"!) --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Yeah Skyrim took the lead while I was asleep. --- 3DS FC: 4382 - 2449 - 5707 IGN: Anthony |
Goldeneye is slowly dying. I don't think it will lose but geez both Skyrim and Goldeneye will end up looking bad there. |
creativename posted... Does anyone know on what date the Quarterfinals begin? For your first question, you can read this post - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/72789937/836142788 Division III finals will be December 8th. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! (edited 11/11/2015 3:34:30 AM)report |
I guess we should start talking about Fallout 4's ending. Did it suck? If it sucks, the franchise might see some backlash in the immediate aftermath. Fallout 3's ending cause a riot, so its not out of the realm of possibility they could make another sour ending. --- Dr voltchball - best in the world. http://i.minus.com/iN5ZHjUDyI547.gif |
-LusterSoldier- posted... creativename posted...Does anyone know on what date the Quarterfinals begin? Thanks Luster, you're awesome! --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
How the f*** is Skyrim doing so badly against Phoenix f***ing Wright? So much for strongest Western game. --- Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses |
We
think Skyrim got off to a really bad start because of a combination of
the regular board vote that always votes heavily for Phoenix Wright, but
also because yesterday's Tumblr rally for Undertale spilled over into
today's match. Phoenix Wright seems like something that Tumblr would
favor here. At least Skyrim's percentage has been really shooting up a like a rocket for the past 2 hours, so it should look much better by the end of this match. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
oh cool, rallying is back --- Smurf ^ the cream of Sonic fanboyism. |
lol metroid is fked if it goes against skyrim.. 36% from morrowind which almost no one really played.. --- nt |
So
if SMB3 and SMW lose next round due to this rally, will Allen believe
that old games are much weaker than new games despite the opposite
having actually been shown >_> --- My old signature was really outdated. I haven't thought of a proper new one yet. |
SnoicFactor posted... lol metroid is fked if it goes against skyrim.. 36% from morrowind which almost no one really played.. Phoenix Wright is getting 37% into Skyrim, man. Phoenix Wright, a handheld only, borderline visual novel that isn't quite old enough to take advantage of nostalgia. If this is spillover from the rally, than Skyrim should going to town by afternoon. If it doesn't, then the game's weak AF, and it's going to get slaughtered by Metroid. Plus, Morrowind is more popular than you think, especially among the hardcore RPG audience that think Oblivion dumbed it down too much. --- Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses (edited 11/11/2015 4:57:18 AM)report |
Metroid and Goldeneye didn't look that good either, think Skyrim still stands a chance of winning this division. --- Man is not the creature of circumstances. Circumstances are the creatures of man. |
From
the %ages and numbers, Skyrim seems slightly weaker than G/S/C, which I
think is just about enough to take down Metroid Prime. A Fallout 3 vs Skyrim match would be really interesting. |
ctesjbuvf posted... So if SMB3 and SMW lose next round due to this rally, will Allen believe that old games are much weaker than new games despite the opposite having actually been shown >_> Unless for some reason Tumblr likes GTA I can't see FFVIII beating SMW. Tumblr might have a small preference to FFVIII in that match, but I don't think it'll be more than their preference for it relative to GTA which probably won't be enough to overcome their difference in strength. SMB3 is definitely losing unless the rally never gets off the ground, though. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Not_Wylvane posted... KamikazePotato posted...For the record, Undertale rally guy says: Sounds like this guy needs to either get out of his mother's basement and meet a woman, or actually play some games based on their merit rather than on how many 'internet personalities' are circlejerking about it. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy -trancer1 lol xstats |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted... Sounds like this guy needs to either get out of his mother's basement and meet a woman, or actually play some games based on their merit rather than on how many 'internet personalities' are circlejerking about it. But Undertale is a good game. |
And
the "internet personalities" thing isn't an argument about the quality
of the game. It's an argument to debunk the theory that Undertale is a
game with zero popularity that people keep throwing around. Don't twist other people's words. |
yeah,
i don't see why people are upset about the result. as allen said,
undertale got the higher seed in the match for a reason. it wasn't a
totally ridiculous result like draven beating link. --- Geothermal terpsichorean ejectamenta |
Anyway,
I think this match was very ironic. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the
reason people were pissed at Mass Effect 3's ending was because the
series had a plot that was influenced by the player's choices, and
people were expecting the ending to reflect on that, except the ending
basically ignored player's choices? And yet, the entire premise of Undertale is that it is a game where the player's choices influence the plot and decide how the game will end. It's like Undertale is Mass Effect 3 done right. (edited 11/11/2015 5:31:50 AM)report |
ZeldaTPLink posted... It's like Undertale is Mass Effect 3 done right. It really is, and that's what I've been thinking. One of the leading reasons for its acclaim before it took off on sites like tumblr is there was a true difference between right and wrong in the game. The game not only reflects your choices, the entire length of the story is an entirely different experience on either extreme. If anyone here is annoyed Mass Effect 3 lost (specifically because they love the game) but hasn't played Undertale, you really should. This is coming from someone who places Mass Effect 2 in his all-time top 5 and the other two somewhere in his top 100. Undertale is the game Mass Effect promised, just with a different style. |
Wow Prime barely doing better than Half-Life 2 against their opponents. I'm tempted to think Morrowind is stronger based since games from 2007-2009 generally haven't been doing so well but Demon's Souls finished 15 spots higher in the GOTD stats. Oh well, if Metroid Prime's going to lose Half-Life 2 isn't a bad game for it to lose to. Better than losing to Skyrim - aka a game in genres I'm not big on at all (fantasy WRPG). EDIT: Now Prime's actually doing worse against Morrowind than Half-Life 2 is against Demon's Souls. Demon's Souls is probably a game that has kept a hardcore fanbase and is probably not as susceptible to weakening compared to, say, Assassin's Creed II. Plus Uncharted 2 and The Last of Us did really well so maybe PS3 owners just stick by their games (lol MGS4 you don't count). Then Souls has been a bigger franchise than Elder Scrolls the past few years... I still think Morrowind is stronger than Demon's Souls but who knows? Also, part of me feels like Skyrim may have been more of a flash in the pan than Oblivion in the long run as at least the latter came out at the beginning of the 360 generation and was big as a result of that. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil (edited 11/11/2015 6:31:38 AM)report |
the
rest of this eightpack is basically Phoenix Wright vs. Demon's Souls
vs. Morrowind. thoughts on that? PW might be overvalued here due to the
early efforts but not by a lot. it'll also probably end up below the
others in percentage. --- xyzzy |
Phoenix Wright probably loses to them, but again, who knows? I mean, if Demon's Souls can lose to a digital-only Capcom game it can probably lose to a handheld one. Although Demon's Souls would probably beat Mega Man 9 now. Also I'm kinda impressed with D2 - it's doing only about a percent worse than it did against MGS4 in '09. Perhaps this game could really roll some heads if given good bracket placement. Or perhaps Goldeneye is just a big fraud waiting to be exposed. Kinda funny to think a day with so many highly-regarded games has them all looking pretty bad. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil (edited 11/11/2015 6:34:24 AM)report |
I guess we just got spoiled by all those violent blowouts and now we think 60%+ is "looking bad" |
I
dunno why the assumption is a rally helps FFVIII that much, Animal
Crossing is a perfect fit with that demographic while GTA is the
opposite! |
That demographic is mainly composed of teenage girls. Squall is a bishie. |
If you remove the first four hours Skyrim would have 68.08% against Phoenix Wright, not exactly a SM64 beater. Currently Half-Life 2 is doing slightly worse than what Metroid would have been expected to get in 2010 (65.63%). Also Metroid Prime is doing fine, assuming a constant Morrowind Metroid Prime would be expected to get 39.38% against Melee --- BGE3: Today's Matches Skyrim>PW, GE007>Diablo II, MP>Morrowind, HL2>DS Points 20/24 |
Doing some fumbling with the GOTD x-stats: Metroid Prime is projected to get 56.89% on Diablo II, which would indicate that it would beat Goldeneye. I'm tempted to think it would - Goldeneye is getting old, is less well-liked, and it has never been re-released whereas Metroid Prime just received a Wii U re-release. BUT those same stats project Metroid Prime to get 68.05% on Morrowind. Oops. Add in the whole deal with Fallout 3's overperformance on Brawl possibly overrating the top quarter of the bracket and we're in trouble. Metroid Prime being equal to Diablo II makes a bit more sense than it narrowly beating Goldeneye based on all our contest data, but I would think a big-name GameCube game could do better against an old PC game! Then again the GameCube was not exactly the most popular Nintendo console, which might have been Melee's undoing against Brawl in GOTD. Based on the GOTD x-stats, Half-Life 2 gets 65.13% on Demon's Souls, meaning it's actually underperforming a little. Since we haven't really seen any evidence that later games in a series boost earlier ones, the logical conclusion is Half-Life 2 being a little weaker now. Factor in that Half-Life 2 would be overrated in the stats by the same margin and perhaps Gordon Freeman will do a little worse against Samus. Finally, the GOTD x-stats project Demon's Souls to get 53.51% on Morrowind. This means Morrowind probably wins a close match if you assume Demon's Souls is overrated by the same degree as the rest of the top quarter of the GOTD bracket. Metroid Prime's performance on Morrowind, according to the GOTD x-stats, would make it slightly weaker than Kingdom Hearts. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
charmander6000 posted... If you remove the first four hours Skyrim would have 68.08% against Phoenix Wright, not exactly a SM64 beater. Sounds like a number Prime could put on Melee indirectly. Kinda sad that Melee would probably SFF Prime into the dirt but then again I'm just not into fighting games and I'm sick of Melee. Still love it though. For what it's worth Prime and Morrowind were in the same eightpack in BGE2. Anyone want to do some extrapolation based on that? Anyway if it wasn't for being a PC/Xbox original exclusive I'd say that breaking 60% on Morrowind is awesome considering how much hype I hear for that game. But, uh, Morrowind is a PC/Xbox original exclusive. And that's a problem. That being said I'm glad that our analyses make my favorite game look good. But again, if Metroid Prime's going to lose to something, Half-Life 2 is a pretty darn good game for it to lose to. At least it won't get embarrassed by Grand Theft Auto again. Speaking of which, according to the GOTD x-stats, Prime gets 65.89% on Vice City. It probably doesn't do nearly that well but that at least implies being on the level of unrallied FFVIII based on Prime's stat underperformance against Morrowind. Going off all these stats Prime gets 52% on Half-Life 2, which feels right. Nintendo fans still stand by Metroid Prime while Half-Life 2 just seems to be gradually fading away. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil (edited 11/11/2015 6:57:37 AM)report |
ZeldaTPLink posted... I guess we just got spoiled by all those violent blowouts and now we think 60%+ is "looking bad" You're right. This is about the % I would have expected Metroid Prime to get, the only particularly alarming thing is how much it % it bled. But it seems like Samus has begun to reverse the tide. I suppose the Elder Scrolls day vote could cause more % loss, but on the other hand Morrowind doesn't feel like the kind of game to benefit from that despite Oblivion having a strong ASV. I'm glad that Metroid Prime has largely proven itself to be at least a solid midcarder, considering how a lot of us feared for its strength after the 2009 contest. LOL 4-ways indeed. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil (edited 11/11/2015 7:00:37 AM)report |
Yeah,
Prime and Half-Life 2 look to have another close match, but Prime
should win. Skyrim is looking like it'll finish in the MGS3/Pokemon GSC
range in the stats. What would people have expected MGS4 to get on MGS3
without the SotC bandwagon? With GoldenEye 007 already outdoing MGS4 on
Diablo II and rising the match could be interesting. For what it's worth Prime and Morrowind were in the same eightpack in BGE2. Anyone want to do some extrapolation based on that? 60.27%, though Metroid Prime had Paper Mario to deal with. --- BGE3: Today's Matches Skyrim>PW, GE007>Diablo II, MP>Morrowind, HL2>DS Points 20/24 |
I suppose this is right then. Perhaps even in '09 Prime was a solid midcarder and GTA didn't suck as much (yes I know III and San Andreas finished in last place in their matches, but they still broke 20% at least). GTA the games didn't really get their penchant for disappointment until San Andreas bombed against Tales of Symphonia and God of War, then the entire series outside GTAIII just looked like total crap in GOTD. Considering how well Vice City was doing against FFVIII before the rally, maybe GTA is no longer so hated. Metroid Prime losing to MGS2 would be kinda dumb but then again MGS4 had just come out, wouldn't be surprised if the entire series was riding off of some high. MGS3 went even with RE4 after all. I'd pick MGS3 > RE4 in a rematch, again since RE4 seems to be SLOOOOOWLY fading away while MGS fans stick by MGS3. Fun coincidence: Metroid Prime is my favorite game, and Vice City's main character is voiced by the actor who starred in my favorite movie. And if there's one thing cool about these contests, it's bringing back fond memories of your gaming. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil (edited 11/11/2015 7:05:52 AM)report |
Wouldn't
be surprised if it did. MGS2 was more mainstream and has lots of fans.
Funny thing is last year MGS2 was the next game I finished after Prime
- I got lost in its incomprehensible plot to take my mind off of
depression following finishing my two favorite games (the other being
Wind Waker). I remember thinking "this game is not quite as good as the
two games I just finished", then realized Ulti would kill me for it.
Oh well. It feels good to see Prime doing well here, felt good to see it do well in GOTD, and felt really bad to see it bomb in BGE2. How this game got stronger between BGE2 and GOTD is anyone's guess, perhaps Other M hype helped lol? A better explanation is probably that Prime has always been a solid midcarder and simply got bad draws the first two contests. Now Prime won't run into any Nintendo (forget Goldeneye lol) until Round 4, which is a vast improvement. I wish Prime could beat the Mario 64/Twilight Princess winner, it's way better than those games (well maybe not Mario 64 but that's my least favorite game I'd give a rating of 9.5/10 or higher). In any case it looks like Prime and Goldeneye have stabilized, Skyrim is rocketing up, and Half-Life 2 is slowly increasing percentage. I will also admit that I have a hard time getting into Metroid Prime nowadays since I'm so familiar with the game. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil (edited 11/11/2015 7:15:17 AM)report |
Yuri_LowelI posted... Lol prime is never losing to mgs2. Despite being LFFed by two other PS2 titles, MGS2 still managed to secure 62% against Morrowind. Prime vs MGS2 is a match that could go either way. --- Man is not the creature of circumstances. Circumstances are the creatures of man. |
I'd
take Metroid Prime to win but in a debated match between two games I've
played I just typically pick the one I like more personally. I'll
assume that MGS1 would probably 60-40 Metroid Prime which would be kinda
sad but oh well. MGS1 isn't a bad game to lose to either. The memories are all coming back! Okay but uh, I dunno if FFX or Silent Hill 2 would really sap much strength from MGS2. If there's a console where games won't leech each other it's the PS2. It's not like Shadow of the Colossus shares a fanbase with MGS2/3 right? ...perhaps either SOTC or MGS2 scored rSFF? Bah. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil (edited 11/11/2015 7:17:44 AM)report |
Ok
this is a lot more like the Skyrim my bracket was hoping to see. Still
don't think it's quite there even if it continues at this pace but it
at least isn't flopping hard anymore. --- This was my signature, but Raytan, 2013 Guru champion, took it away. (edited 11/11/2015 7:17:08 AM)report |
Damnit Goldeneye, I really wanted to testicle bet on you to beat Skyrim... |
DaruniaTheGoron posted... Going to bed. If Skyrim isn't winning close to 70% in any updates by morning then I will be concerned. Right now power hour with Pheonix Wright and even further boosted by tumblr users (proof is in votals) means this data is completely useless to make judgments. What'd I tell you guys? Skyrim has this in the bag against goldeneye and probably metroid prime. Just as we thought. Praying for a Prime upset though. Oh and anyone who took Skyrim over sm64 was completely out to lunch --- http://www.last.fm/user/VinnyMendoza "This is all we have... when we die.." |
