GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1203
Still eats me up inside that f***ing pokemon is gonna benefit from another rally, without it even being about pokemon! --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png LongLiveraytan |
1:00-2:00 AM vote totals for today's matches vs. yesterday's matches: Skyrim/Phoenix Wright - 3128 GoldenEye/Diablo - 3033 Metroid Prime/Morrowind - 3079 Half-Life 2/Demon's Souls - 3002 Fallout 3/Life is Strange - 2489 Undertale/Mass Effect 3 - 2507 GTA: Vice City/FFVIII - 2554 Mario World/Animal Crossing - 2597 Today's matches are still outpacing yesterday's matches in the second hour, so there may still be spillover votes coming in from yesterday's rally. Since the Tumblr rally linked directly to the voting page, anyone who wanted to vote for Undertale after that match ended would see a different set of matches instead. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
creativename posted... So dancing, I googled undertale ending and there's many it seems. KamikazePotato posted... I think he's talking about Life is Strange. Last post before I go snooze. If it's Undertale you wanted to know about, your ending depends on your primary method of getting your way out of fights. Fighting your way out, negotiating, or a mix of the two, although it is impossible to get the true no kill ending the first time through the game. That's all I will say, as it's best to go in relatively blind. For Life Is Strange, you are presented with a single binary choice at the end of part 5 that is the same regardless of what happened, and one of them looks like it was slapped together in an afternoon. Both endings to Life is Strange render what you have done for the entire game worthless. --- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jw1m2M8JdkU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bw-sJW8mlMA MGS for PS1 looks better than Smash Bros for Wii U-Linetrix |
Here's
the breakdowns from the 4:40PM update and before, and after. I will try
to estimate the specific Tumblr portion of this in a bit. Undertale | ME3 | Undertale % | ME3 % 4:40 | 11331 | 20583 | 35.50% | 64.50% Final | 28218 | 27162 | 50.95% | 49.05% Diff | 16887 | 6579 | 71.96% | 28.04% Fallout 3 | Life is Strange | | 4:40 | 25387 | 6088 | 80.66% | 19.34% Final | 37861 | 14324 | 72.55% | 27.45% Diff | 12474 | 8236 | 60.23% | 39.77% Vice City | FF8 | | 4:40 | 13542 | 18821 | 41.84% | 58.16% Final | 20745 | 32008 | 39.32% | 60.68% Diff | 7203 | 13187 | 35.33% | 64.67% SMW | Animal Crossing | | 16:40 | 27707 | 5263 | 84.04% | 15.96% Final | 40067 | 14616 | 73.27% | 26.73% Diff | 12360 | 9353 | 56.92% | 43.08% --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
So,
I've decided to hold off on my message until the actual day of the
match to see if it's needed first. I am trying to track some of the
tumblrs though, so we can tell on match day if they've snapped into
action yet. --- "What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!" This is Yesmar. Congrats to CBIX Guru Winner *Raytan*! |
I really wouldn't bother with a message, I highly doubt they'd listen |
creativename posted... SMB3 specifically would go older than Pokemon R/B though... I think the average Tumblr user is too young to be likely to have played SMB3 (also Pokemon has a disproportionately female fanbase compared to the average game). --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
So I tried to estimate the portion before 4:40PM and after based on the 3 weekday datapoints we have. For polls 6054, 6058 and 6070 - at 4:40PM, total, and share of total at 4:40PM: 6054 (FFX vs. HL) | 29811 | 38804 | 76.82% 6058 (TLoS vs. Halo 3) | 27603 | 34855 | 79.19% 6070 (UC2 vs. TWD) | 27783 | 35938 | 77.31% The average <=4:40PM portion is almost Lucky 7's - 77.7755%! Here are projected and extra votes for each, along with the estimated Tumblr portion. Undertale vs. ME3 Projected total - 41,033.49 Extra Total Votes - 14346.51 Undertale Tumblr vote - 95.15% Fallout 3 vs. Life is Strange Projected total - 40,469.04 Extra Total Votes - 11,715.96 Life is Strange Tumblr vote - 55.46% FF8 vs. Vice City Projected total - 41,610.79 Extra Total Votes - 11,142.21 FF8 Tumblr vote - 70.07% SMW vs. Animal Crossing Projected total - 42,391.24 Extra Total Votes - 12,291.76 Animal Crossing Tumblr vote - 63.87% So Life is Strange and Animal Crossing outright flip the preference. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Yeah, Tumblr being involved favours Pokemon against SMB3 in a big way. In general I'd expect Tumblr would bias towards the newer game compared to GameFAQs in most cases. The exceptions will be things like GTA vs. Final Fantasy (or, for a hypothetical example, Fallout vs. Zelda) where the game with the far larger female fanbase is the one that benefits. Pokemon is both newer than Mario and likely has a larger female fanbase, so Mario is screwed if Tumblr is a big factor in that match. --- The RPG Duelling League: www.rpgdl.com An unparalleled source for RPG information and discussion |
creativename posted... So I tried to estimate the portion before 4:40PM and after based on the 3 weekday datapoints we have. So what does this mean for Fallout and Mario? --- Ole, ole, ole, ole. Ole! Ole! (Accents and inverted !-marks missing) On a bet with three other users on if a certain girl genie will be in Smash; I say no. |
Oh,
and I estimate that of the 23,466 votes we got post-4:40PM, 14,346.51
were extra, so that means a full 61.14% of post-4:40PM votes were from
Tumblr. And I'm assuming it took a bit for the rally to get started. Undertale didn't get 80% updates until 6:10PM. _Dog posted... So what does this mean for Fallout and Mario? Not good as if over 50% of the votes are from Tumblr, Fallout is doomed no matter what. And only a very slight favoritism would be needed for Pokemon to win as I'm assuming that even if SMB3 would win on this site, it would be well under 55%. They better hope any new rally doesn't gain traction. But with morale for Undertale ralliers increasing, as they now know it's possible to actually pull this off. Undertale even has a chance vs. SMW now...the real question may be Pokemon vs. Undertale in the division Finals! --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
At least we'll get to keep wondering how strong the Mario games are relatively to each other --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png LongLiveraytan |
BTW, this site now knows the power of Tumblr. I expect others to try this now, especially with "of the moment" games (I may have even just given some the idea...). And, presumably, by trying to estimate the preferences of the alien species that is girl gamers. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
I
suspect if there's anything that can stop Undertale, it's Pokemon.
That's probably the biggest kryptonite to a game like Undertale. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
Mario was supposed to be the kryptonite of Pokemon dammit --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png LongLiveraytan |
One data point for our shared power to try and gather. What games have the biggest presence on Twitter? Maybe with hashtags? And does Tumblr have hashtags? --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
i
wonder if FFVIII could beat SMW next round. assuming that's 65-35 match
here without tumblr, tumblr gets 60% of the vote, and has a 60%
preference for FFVIII, that makes it exactly 50-50. i mean, i kind of
doubt tumblr can provide 60k votes even throughout an entire match and
it's probably not that much in favor of FFVIII either, but those numbers
at least sound plausible. --- http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxkdr0uNc91qlu5jao1_r1_400.gif |
SMW/FFVIII
is probably a great deal closer on Gamefaqs than 65/35......I doubt SMW
would break 60% there, and probably closer to 55% than 60%. So yeah,
SMW could be in trouble next round. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
i mean yeah that's possible too. i would have said closer than 65-35 until it flopped against Vice City. --- http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxkdr0uNc91qlu5jao1_r1_400.gif |
creativename posted... Undertale Tumblr vote - 95.15% Comparing those percentages to their overall percentage at 4:40 PM, we can get an idea of which game is most popular on Tumblr relative to GameFAQs. Undertale - 35.50% on GameFAQs, 95.15% on Tumblr (59.65% difference) Animal Crossing - 15.96% on GameFAQs, 63.87% on Tumblr (47.91% difference) Life is Strange - 19.03% on GameFAQs, 55.46% on Tumblr (36.43% difference) Final Fantasy VIII - 58.16% on GameFAQs, 70.07% on Tumblr (11.91% difference) Tumblr favoring Animal Crossing to a more extreme amount than Life is Strange also matches up with Fallout 3 not losing nearly as much percentage than Mario World after the rally started. FFVIII also got the least benefit from the Tumblr rally. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
I'm
kind of more astounded that Animal Crossing got 63% of the rallied
votes against SMW than anything else. I didn't realize there existed a
fanbase (other than maybe the Animal Crossing fanbase) that would favor
AC over SMW, especially by that large a margin. I suppose I will take comfort in knowing that Link was getting 40% of the rallied votes against Draven. OOT will be hard to take down by rallying as long as it can feed off the rally itself. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 NEVER FORGET. |
Argh why is Prime dropping so much? --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/72801020 Guy who started the rally is speaking out about his plans here, if you guys were interested. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
LinkMarioSamus posted... Argh why is Prime dropping so much? Trends. Metroid has the weakest night vote out of any Nintendo franchise, even worse than that of Zelda. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
red sox 777 posted... I'm kind of more astounded that Animal Crossing got 63% of the rallied votes against SMW than anything else. I didn't realize there existed a fanbase (other than maybe the Animal Crossing fanbase) that would favor AC over SMW, especially by that large a margin. Yeah, the net difference for Animal Crossing being only 11 points worse than for Undertale itself is astonishing. Especially against a Mario game. I wouldn't have thought a place that preferred Animal Crossing to SMW existed, even on an Animal Crossing site! I wonder if this means good things for FF7. It's old, but then Vice City is much newer than FF8, and I would think a site like Tumblr would benefit GTA more than a Final Fantasy. So maybe FF7 is stronger on Tumblr than I would have expected too. Normally FF7 is the easiest game to rally against. But anti-rallying FF7 on Tumblr seems like it may backfire. That said, Pokemon may benefit more than FF7. Though we don't have any actual data on Pokemon so we can't say for sure. So R/B>FF7 may be back in play. The main hurdle in my eyes for Pokemon wasn't FF7, it was SMW and SM64, which Pokemon looks much better with now thanks to Undertale "spillover". And the fact that while normally Mario games would be impossible to rally against, we've now found a place. I still think FF7 is less than 50% to make the finals. But now it's actually conceivable OoT can be beaten. FF7 is the game that would need the least "help", and while I'm sure OoT would be very popular on Tumblr, it's possible FF7 is more popular (we can't know yet). Of course maybe this is just a FF8 thing. Or maybe an anti-GTA thing and not even a FF thing. Overall I'd say OoT has dropped from in my eyes almost 90% to win this contest, to now more like 70-80% to win. Whether the possible winner is R/B, FF7, Undertale or whatever. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
First day where we do not have any impressive winners. --- Man is not the creature of circumstances. Circumstances are the creatures of man. |
For the record, Undertale rally guy says: alright. it's clear to me that this contest is more serious than I initially thought of it, and I didn't know the full history behind the previous joke rallies that dominated the last contests. frankly, I really love Undertale and I still want to rally for it. but next round I think I'm going to make it a lot more clear in my post that I don't want people voting for the sake of a joke, or to "fight the man" or whatever. I want to lay out my reasons for why Undertale is deserving of a win and tell people to vote as they see fit and not just because my post has a bunch of notes on Tumblr. I want people to know that Undertale's in the battle, and it's a great game and an underdog that I think belongs among the greats. I wanna rally support for it from all its fans, but I don't want to do it in a way that makes the contest feel like a joke. I don't want people to feel like any of its wins are undeserved or that any of them come from a place of malice. I hope that's enough, and I hope you understand. it's pretty late here so I'm probably going to bed, apologies if I don't respond to anyone else. good night! --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
-Zelmor- posted... First day where we do not have any impressive winners. Yeah its sort of funny- Skyrim definitely looks like its putting to bed any chance of Goldeneye beating it -but mainly because Goldeneye does not look impressive at all right now, while Skyrim is simply underperforming to our admittedly high expectations for it. Meanwhile, given how Blooborne did, HL2 if it were to have any shot of repeating its solid performance on Metroid Prime, would have to start pulling away from Demon Souls. And then finally Metroid Prime isn't exactly blowing us away either, making the outcome of this fourpack kind of easy to predict now, with us also being able to accurately call that its winner isn't really going to advance very far. --- Board 8's Voice of Reason http://i.imgur.com/chXIw06.jpg |
Honestly
this whole rallying thing was blown out of proportion anyway. We aren't
dealing with a dedicated Undertale fan site like last time with Draven.
Once Undertale starts hitting competition that isn't Mass Effect 3, an
internet joke, its support will split and the rally will falter. Look at Life is Strange, another game that Tumblr seemed to love. It benefited greatly, but against an actual game it never actually closed the gap. --- **R.O.B.A.Z.O.I.D** (edited 11/11/2015 1:08:46 AM)report |
I woke up and I checked the results. I have to say this: For yesterday Undertale did it! Damn! These rallies were insane! Now for today: 1)Skyrim really low. I guess people really love Phoenix Wright games? 2)Goldeneye is winning as much as I was expecting. 3)Prime is doing very good. 4)Half Life 2, probably the strongest PC game. Nice. But these rallies! --- Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing? |
I am assuming Tumblr is the type of place you need an established account or any calls to action will fail. Am I correct on this? That people who have followings there are needed to start a rally? Or, can anyone start a new Tumblr just to support a game, and this actually has a chance at happening? KamikazePotato posted... http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/72801020 So how does Tumblr work anyway? In terms of influencers. Is the guy who started the Undertake rally particularly popular there according to whatever metrics they show? Or is this just something the community picked up on? And is it something that will probably repeat as long as anyone rallies Undertale there, or this specific guy rallies Undertale - or, did this guy need a lot of luck for it to get picked up? For instance maybe it flashed on a popular Tumblr sub-page for only a moment and that's not likely to happen again. Seems to me it won't need luck but I don't know Tumblr. And I don't know if this guy is popular there. He had a fan fiction page people mentioned in that topic to mock him, and looking at it, it seemed into Japanese stuff. I don't know if FF8 doing well reflects on all of Tumblr, or just this guy's visitors? I'd think a rally of this size was much more about all Tumblr but I don't know. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Eddv posted... -Zelmor- posted...First day where we do not have any impressive winners. It's kinda sad to think that Prime/HL2 just seem weak, although I feel like we may be constantly overestimating them. And I had a hunch that the move back to 24-hour matches might hurt Prime due to the way it trended in GOTD (gets off to a fast start and then bleeds % for the rest of the match). Then again, Morrowind and Demon's Souls aren't exactly unpopular games. Morrowind would probably beat Metroid Prime on many sites, but on GameFAQs being a PC/Xbox original exclusive really hurts. Morrowind tends to get a lot of hype too. For what it's worth it was the 2nd highest-ranked Bethesda game on you-know-what, only below Skyrim, and actually a spot above Fallout 3. Morrowind probably benefited from having a much more hardcore fanbase in comparison to the more casual fanbases of Oblivion/Skyrim/Fallout. I should get into the WRPG genre someday. And I know that everyone on this board will recommend I start with Mass Effect - I'd personally rather pick Diablo II (fond memories of StarCraft) or a Bethesda game (it helps that I already own Morrowind, Oblivion, Skyrim, Fallout 3, New Vegas, and Fallout 4 because my brother loves that stuff). --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
-LusterSoldier- posted... LinkMarioSamus posted...Argh why is Prime dropping so much? Right. IIRC Elder Scrolls games generally have good day votes, but Samus should be able to slow down the % loss during that time anyway. C/D: Super Metroid will break 70% on CoD. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
I laugh at myself for even bringing up the debate of Undertale vs Life is Strange --- 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
Honestly, they're both Tumblr darlings. It might be closer than you'd think. --- **R.O.B.A.Z.O.I.D** |
Comparison of the hourly vote totals in today's matches vs. yesterday's match: Time | % Increase vs. yesterday's matches 1:00 | 25.97% 2:00 | 20.65% 3:00 | 18.29% 4:00 | 18.15% 5:00 | 3.32% The first hour in today's matches had the biggest increase in vote totals compared to the first hour in yesterday's match. In the past, we get elevated vote totals at the start of a new match following a late rally push near the end of the previous match. But that increase in vote totals came mainly because there are more GameFAQs users keeping an eye on a close match near the very end of the match, so you had more potential users waiting to vote in the next match. That normally would have only resulted in elevated vote totals for maybe 30 minutes at the very most before we're back to a regular vote intake again. With today's matches, we are also getting extra votes from outside sources from yesterday's rally spilling over into today's matches. After the first hour in today's matches, the vote totals for the next 4 hours represent a smaller percentage of extra votes coming in from the rally spill over. By the fifth hour in today's matches, we seem to have a very sharp drop-off in extra votes compared to the same hour in yesterday's matches. Seems like the rally spill over died out after the fourth hour in today's matches. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! (edited 11/11/2015 2:29:50 AM)report |
creativename posted... I am assuming Tumblr is the type of place you need an established account or any calls to action will fail. Basically people have networks of followers - this particular dude has a webcomic and fanfiction. What I imagine happened is that he has a core of followers who reblogged it and that maybe a tumblr heavyhitter was among them or among the followers of someone who follows this guy - someone who produces a lot of popular content perhaps, reblogged it and then once followers of people who have a ton of followers get involved its easy for it to spread. But basically it looks like it was just a really lucky shot that hit mainly because undertale is still extremely topical and in the running for GotYs and stuff and thus they actually have a lot of motivation to spread the word about it and rack up little accolades like "named Gamefaqs Best. Game. Ever. 2015" to help its sales and maybe facilitate this dude making more games. --- Board 8's Voice of Reason http://i.imgur.com/chXIw06.jpg |
Robazoid posted... Honestly, they're both Tumblr darlings. It might be closer than you'd think. I dunno. That last episode got a pretty mixed reception. Won't go into details (still spoiler tags, just in case), --- http://i.imgur.com/0JdOe85.gif http://i.imgur.com/GzqvnBq.jpg |
With the current results, GFAQs is completely following critical opinion. |
Oh,
don't even get me started on Life is Strange Episode 5, but it still
has a pretty active tumblr community from what I've seen. I haven't
looked into it but I imagine this rally was concentrated around parts of
tumblr that like Undertale, for obvious reasons. Get a similar thing
going on the LiS side of tumblr and who knows what happens? --- **R.O.B.A.Z.O.I.D** (edited 11/11/2015 1:55:47 AM)report |
oh Life is Strange episode content talk? I'm out. --- Dr voltchball - best in the world. http://i.minus.com/iN5ZHjUDyI547.gif |
You
may not be wrong. I haven't seen anyone post about LiS since a few days
after the last episode, though, and a lot of people I follow used to
post about it a lot. --- http://i.imgur.com/0JdOe85.gif http://i.imgur.com/GzqvnBq.jpg |
Safer_777 posted... I woke up and I checked the results. I have to say this: Orange box too popular to say hl2 is just a pc game. --- http://k09.kn3.net/1256263BF.gif |
voltch posted... oh Life is Strange episode content talk? No, please stay. We can't have this conversation about a hypothetical match that'll never happen without you! --- **R.O.B.A.Z.O.I.D** |
RyoCaliente posted... With the current results, GFAQs is completely following critical opinion. Every game bar phenix wright has won goty awards and averages close to 90 or above. --- http://k09.kn3.net/1256263BF.gif |
KamikazePotato posted... Man. Less than 12 hours ago we were debating if Underale could beat Life is Strange That's the power of a rally for ya. I mean, Draven had problems with Jak, then boom, Link killer! --- satoru iwata |
On another note, I want to see Prime over Skyrim. I talked about it pre-contest, but never actually made the switch! --- satoru iwata |
I
wanted to take that upset but it was hard to see Prime beating Skyrim
if it couldn't beat Fallout 3. Heck, hard to see it beating Goldeneye
if it can barely beat Half-Life 2, and in a day match no less without
the series' horrible night vote to deal with. Also wow, Skyrim is going to be the only game from 2010-2012 to advance so far and it's going to look like total junk doing it. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
KamikazePotato posted... For the record, Undertale rally guy says: It's just a guy passionate about a game he really likes and he was excited to see it do well so he encouraged people to come vote for it, which pretty much every person here has done at some point, though obviously they're less popular than this guy. Understandable and it must be a great feeling to see something like this work out and seeing one of your favorite games make a huge comeback to win thanks to the support of thousands of fans and other people in your community. Makes me wonder how many death threats he's received so far from B8ers. --- Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy IX - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3729662 Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64 |
