GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1200!
Good lord, 1200 topics. Also there's the floor, holding everything up! I was invented to be a moron. ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
BLUE STREAK!! And RBY is so screwed. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
UltimaterializerX posted... BLUE STREAK!! I have SMB3 going really far. Good call y/y? |
Congrats to everyone that have stayed for so many topics. Some of us have been here for over a decade. --- BGE3: Today's Matches SMB3>AoEII, Pokemon RBYG>Tetris, Sonic 2>Portal 2, Unchated 2>TWD Points 13/16 |
The SMB3 rallying in round 2 will be fun. --- Hey man, LlamaGuy did encrypt the passwords. With what? ROT-13? -CJayC |
Division Finals/Quarterfinals are 2 per day now? lame |
I
posted this near the end of the previous topic, but the updater is
dead. I did not notice this until about 4:20 PM EST, nearly 4 hours
after the last recorded update. Without any close matches going on
today, there are fewer people checking the updater on a regular basis
and I'm not surprised someone didn't notice this much earlier. An attempt to trigger a manual update returned a message which might suggest the site is being IP blocked. Although we don't have any updates for the past 4 hours, we're not completely alone in getting some messing updates added to the site even though I only recently started up my tracking scripts. GameFAQs has their own vote total data that they use to generate their poll graphs. I can use this data to supplement my tracking scripts. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
So
do we think that the extension of multi-match days is going to affect
any results? I can see a few possibilities if we think multipolls
increase the likelihood someone will vote in a match where they haven't
played either game: R3: CT/FFX, Melee/KH2, FFVI/WW, Smash 4/FFVII: could give FFX a boost, though given how dominant CT was in round 1 I don't know if this would change anything. Also likely makes FFVI safer against any WW upset potential. (RBY/SMB3)/Sonic 2, Fallout 3/SMW, Skyrim/Metroid Prime, SM64/TP: any Mario game that makes it here is going to win anyway so I don't think that overlap will be relevant, but if Prime is closer than we think to Skyrim it could get a boost from all of the Nintendo in the poll. (Zeldas all winning anyway for the third set) (SMRPG/Oblivion)/CC, MGS2/RE4, MGS/SotC, MGS3/ME2: Looottttsss of Metal Gear. The gap between MGS2 and RE4 is probably too wide to bridge, but this could make MGS3 safer against a potential ME2 upset. R4: CT/Melee, FFVI/FFVII: Could boost CT. Also maybe FFVI if CT fans overlap with them more than FFVII fans? (RBY/SMB3)/SMW, Skyrim/SM64: could hurt RBY if its still alive here. (More Zelda, doubt SotN is relevant) (SMRPG/Oblivion)/RE4, MGS/MGS3: increased reputation votes probably help MGS? R5: (CT/Melee)/FFVII, (RBY/SMB3/SMW)/SM64: second match could help Melee if it's here (or maybe even CT?) Probably not relevant. OoT/ALttP, RE4/(MGS/MGS3): RE4 could be helped here by Nintendo fans because it was on the Gamecube maybe? --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
1337gamerpr0 posted... Division Finals/Quarterfinals are 2 per day now? Eh not a huge deal. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
The
effects of multiways on polls is kinda hard to gauge, I wouldn't worry
about it, especially on later matches which were probably not going to
differ much in votals anyway --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png LongLiveraytan |
wait you can't just throw out Zelda R4, what if OoT overlaps with MM more and boosts it over? (probably not lol) |
We don't even know if they boost each other or if they leech each other. --- My old signature was really outdated. I haven't thought of a proper new one yet. |
Why would they affect each other at all? The only somewhat plausible scenario is someone being reluctant to vote for the same franchise in the same poll I guess. Even that I wouldn't put much stock in. The only certain thing is that matches that would have been bad vote draws are probably getting more votes than they ever would have got. Though I'd like to see the data to make sure. --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png LongLiveraytan (edited 11/9/2015 2:01:04 PM)report |
though
on a more serious note, I doubt that late into the bracket that votals
would even differ by much, the only way there's an impact is if we get
rallies |
Safer_777 posted...
They may not be called "zombies" in-universe, but they are still zombies. That's like saying Mario doesn't have turtles because they are called koopas. |
Why was the 2 per day thing extended? I felt like the contest was already short enough the way it was. |
40+ days is still plenty long for a contest we're just spoiled by the typical 12 hour 128 format as well as the 2013 contest which was super long --- Anime List: http://myanimelist.net/profile/superange VG List: http://myvideogamelist.com/profile/superange128 Visual Novels: https://vndb.org/u6633/votes |
I think Allen wants an early holiday vacation for him and his team. :) --- xyzzy |
I don't mind. I love having four matches a day. No more waiting a week for something interesting to happen. --- Conformity and rebellion...both ways are simple-minded--they are only for people who cannot cope with contradiction and ambiguity. |
Samurai7 posted... I don't mind. I love having four matches a day. No more waiting a week for something interesting to happen. Same here --- Every day the rest of your life is changed forever. |
I am also here for I don't remember how long. I still have faith in Pokemon! --- Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing? |
The
only certain thing is that matches that would have been bad vote draws
are probably getting more votes than they ever would have got. Though
I'd like to see the data to make sure. I decided to take a look. Using the first 16 matches of the 2009 contest (last full 24 hour contest) and the 16 completed matches here I was able to take the average and standard deviation. For the 2009 contest the average match had 117867 +/- 6803 votes while this contest the average match had 36536 +/- 1510 votes. Of course this is a bit unfair to compare because the 2009 had more votes and thus it is expected to have more deviation. Using the deviation as a percent we have 5.77% for 2009 and 4.13% for this contest. Overall the deviation is smaller, but the SMW/FF/Battetoads/PoP's high vote total might be an outlier (4.40% without it). I decided to group matches by four (3 for the SMW/FF/BT/PoP group) and compare its relative standard deviations. I'm able to do a statistical test now so using the t-test I get a p-value of 0.0621 which is just above the 5% threshold for statistical difference. In summary matches between the four games tend to, but not significantly have a lower deviation of vote totals vs. daily polls. --- BGE3: Today's Matches SMB3>AoEII, Pokemon RBYG>Tetris, Sonic 2>Portal 2, Unchated 2>TWD Points 13/16 |
Samurai7 posted... I don't mind. I love having four matches a day. No more waiting a week for something interesting to happen. This. Multiple matches daily is great. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
we didn't have to worry about waiting a week for interesting matches to happen once we hit the division finals though this is Allen's habit of finding something he perceives to be a good thing and running too far with it like I said before, he'd be a great baseball commissioner --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
What exactly is the negative? --- Conformity and rebellion...both ways are simple-minded--they are only for people who cannot cope with contradiction and ambiguity. |
What's the rush? When you get to the really good matches, I'd rather them just have a day to themselves. Honestly 4 matches per day is kind of information overload once you get past the first couple of rounds. It's fine for now because there are so many fodderiffic blowouts, but once those are all gone, I'd rather slow things down a bit and narrow the focus. It was the same problem with Allen keeping 12 hour matches all the way to the semis before. The important matches deserve more attention and more time, and the important matches start earlier than the semifinals. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
I don't know I like to think those matches are a big deal and deserve full attention for 24 hours. It's overload to have 2 important matches at the same time. And I don't mind enjoying the contest for several more days instead of rushing it. --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png LongLiveraytan |
I think it's been shown that multiple matches aren't really affecting each other. Vote totals are practically identical. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
UltimaterializerX posted... Vote totals are practically identical. This means there is an effect! Matches before varied in votals because of the participants. --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png LongLiveraytan |
I
don't really care about the vote totals. I'm sure Allen does and that's
why he's extending it out further, but that's not really the deal. I'd rather just FFX/CT vs. Melee and FFVI vs. FFVII have their own day instead of having to do them both at once. Those are big matches that are worthy of extra dedicated focus and discussion. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif (edited 11/9/2015 2:57:54 PM)report |
LeonhartFour posted... we didn't have to worry about waiting a week for interesting matches to happen once we hit the division finals though He'd be better as WWE commissioner. You want a company that overdoes EVERYTHING that actually works, WWE is it. Brock Lesnar just randomly yelled "SUPLEX CITY, b****!" at Roman Reigns during Wrestemania, fans loved it, and now all his matches are just 20847 German suplexes, finisher, win. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest "F*** Draven." -SBAllen |
I still dont know why it's a big deal for Quarter Finals to be 1 match a day --- Anime List: http://myanimelist.net/profile/superange VG List: http://myvideogamelist.com/profile/superange128 Visual Novels: https://vndb.org/u6633/votes (edited 11/9/2015 2:59:45 PM)report |
I'm
with Leon. I think it'll be all right if we keep it this way but those
matches deserve some room to breathe. they're huge matches. imagine if we had Starcraft/Wind Waker and FFX/Melee on the same day? --- xyzzy |
transience posted... I'm with Leon. I think it'll be all right if we keep it this way but those matches deserve some room to breathe. they're huge matches. I don't see the problem with two big crazy matches happening at the same time At least it's better than 12 hour matches in QFs since in those you're denying the late night/day/evening vote being a factor for 2 different matches But if they're both 24 hours anyways, who cares --- Anime List: http://myanimelist.net/profile/superange VG List: http://myvideogamelist.com/profile/superange128 Visual Novels: https://vndb.org/u6633/votes |
I
don't think the shorter time was inherently bad for the later rounds
because of the speed of them. It was bad because it actually affected
the outcome as well as affecting people being able to discuss or see the
matches due to their daily schedule. As far as information overload I can't really relate to that. What more information do I need than looking at the results for a few minutes? We don't really have very much in the way of trends anymore, and its rare enough for comebacks to happen even with them that it's unlikely two would happen the same day. I can understand for in depth and analysis write up that things like the Crew are less manageable, and there's less time for debate about future match ups, however the first point only affects a small amount of people who enjoy these contests and the debating usually is just people making the same points back and forth. Whereas the quicker match times keep what I assume is the majority more interested and limit the "Oh this is so bad for pokemon", "No this is why it's not a big deal really", "Oh but pokemon is in trouble!!!", "Well I think tetris isn't that bad." Like, it doesn't take long to digest the arguments of both sides. --- Conformity and rebellion...both ways are simple-minded--they are only for people who cannot cope with contradiction and ambiguity. |
I
agree with Leon. In fact, if I could choose, I'd have made the rounds
4-2-1 instead of 4-4-2. I like a longer contest. Though that might be
tiring for some. |
Yeah,
I'm sure the format is fine for casual people who don't want to digest
all the minutia. I don't expect Allen to really give a crap what
Statheads think because we're the minority. That's just my personal
opinion. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
I was dreading this topic was made by someone that doesn't come to b8 because it wasn't showing up a few hours ago Thank you and please don't be late with it next time! --- Your signature is automatically appended to the bottom of every post you make. Your 'About Me' message is displayed on your profile page. You can include any in |
Where are the new rules... It's lame to change them during the contest Si it's 4-4-2-2-1-1-1??? |
it was 4-4-2-1-1-1-1, now it's 4-4-2-2-2-1-1 could've gone in between and put it at 4-4-2-2-1-1-1 at least |
I've
always thought Mario 3 would win next round, but I don't feel more or
less confident seeing this today. What I am more confident in is that
Pokemon is simply an elite game in 2015, not a world beater that
everyone wants to dominate. This feels like a normal, strong showing,
but not the crushing that you'd expect from something that could rival
OOT or whatever. Even if Mario 3 loses, I definitely think World would
take it. Think World would put a bigger hurt on Tetris here for sure. Also what are these new rules --- satoru iwata |
the
funny thing is that, barring a rally or something crazy, 2/3 of the
single matches are boring OOT romps. meanwhile we're losing that
intimacy with CT, Mario, MGS, etc. I totally get the opposite viewpoint and like Leon said, only nerds like us will care. we also have the additional pressure of writing up all this stuff. I'm going out of town this weekend and I have to write up like 12-16 matches at once. woo! --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
Anyway, how are you guys feeling about Sonic 2/Uncharted 2 next round? I felt pretty good about Sonic 2 pre-contest, but now I'm not so sure. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
You do not change the rules with 2000$ on the line. Legally speaking it's a big no no (edited 11/9/2015 3:23:49 PM)report |
I'm
still thinking Sonic, but I'm definitely less confident. Do we have any
idea of how much stronger than The Walking Dead Portal 2 is? --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Allen is saying he "technically" never "officially" announced the format, so that's his loophole. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
LordoftheMorons posted... I'm still thinking Sonic, but I'm definitely less confident. Do we have any idea of how much stronger than The Walking Dead Portal 2 is? Nope, considering all we'd ever seen of Portal 2 or Walking Dead before today was GOTY polls. I don't doubt Sonic 2 or Portal 2 beat Walking Dead easily. Pre-contest, I'd have taken Portal 2 > Uncharted 2, but Portal's flop against Melee and UC2 and Last of Us looking really impressive have made me rethink that stance a bit. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Was there a reason people were high on Portal/2? It's a FP puzzle game on the PC*, what made you guys think it would do well against respected console games? *on consoles as well but when was the last time someone played it on a console? --- Your signature is automatically appended to the bottom of every post you make. Your 'About Me' message is displayed on your profile page. You can include any in |
Uncharted
2 would've got 55% on Sonic Adventure 2 in 2010. I think Sonic 2 would
do better. I always expected the winner of this match to defeat
Uncharted 2 --- BGE3: Today's Matches SMB3>AoEII, Pokemon RBYG>Tetris, Sonic 2>Portal 2, Unchated 2>TWD Points 13/16 |
