General_Zimbad posted...
Also, there are so few perfect brackets left. I feel like it normally takes way longer for this to happen?


theres 4 matches a day, people could easily get something wrong.
Welp, bad move on my part switching over to Portal 2.

Kinda worried by what RBY is doing.
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Lead up to 400!
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voltch posted...
Welp, bad move on my part switching over to Portal 2.

Kinda worried by what RBY is doing.


Don't be. Tetris is decent and probably has some bracket support. 70% for RB is good.
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David Hayter
Seriously, Who in the hell is "Draven?" (Sounds like a draggy crow.)
(edited 11/9/2015 1:04:17 AM)report
I hope that's the real truth!
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Dr voltchball - best in the world.
http://i.minus.com/iN5ZHjUDyI547.gif
Again, B8 and critics opinion divides! SMB3 > AoE II is normal, but RBY > Tetris is not. Kinda surprised Tetris is being beaten this hard. Portal 2 < Sonic 2 also does not follow critics' opinion, but Uncharted 2 > The Walking Dead is again pretty normal.
Once again I listened to board 8 only to regret it
(edited 11/9/2015 1:11:50 AM)report
tennisboy213 posted...
Honestly Pokemon doesn't look bad here. I was thinking mid to high 60s pre-contest and only picked 72% in the oracle due to not wanting to go too low. I have Mario 3 beating it in my bracket and still like the pick, but it has nothing to do with the current match.

Well, if you think R/B is weak enough to lose to SMB3, it would explain why you had much more modest expectations of it than most of us here.

I mean it's not the nail in the coffin because data on Tetris is scarce. SMB3/RB will still be a debated match. But a lot more will be tempted to pick SMB3 in the Oracle now.
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RyoCaliente posted...
Again, B8 and critics opinion divides! SMB3 > AoE II is normal, but RBY > Tetris is not. Kinda surprised Tetris is being beaten this hard. Portal 2 < Sonic 2 also does not follow critics' opinion, but Uncharted 2 > The Walking Dead is again pretty normal.


That being said, I can't be the only one who feels like it's a bit weird to see Uncharted 2 getting a blowout win. Literally 57% on THE LEGEND OF DRAGOON, a mixed-reception RPG, but now doing much better than that against a game that has won a lot of GOTY awards.

Yes I'm aware that it's a PS1 RPG against a recent adventure game.
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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
I feel like Mario 3's result is more impressive, but as much "not this site's kind of game" it is, Age of Empires II still has a very active community. It's 84% on that vs. 70% on a game no one really cares about.

For what it's worth AoE2 has always been in the top 70 in unikgamer's rankings. Of course, it's a very popular game among old-school PC gamers, the problem is that that community isn't here.

What & does AoE2 get on Civ4?

Also I picked Portal because the board convinced me to switch to SA2 > SFIV last contest and that worked out SO well. I guess 2D Sonic and 3D Sonic are completely different animals (odd considering how Sonic Adventure 2 seems to be just as popular as the Genesis games nowadays, or at least the gap has been narrowed more now than ever before), plus classic Sonic against 2011 game is different from 3D Sonic vs. 2009 game or classic Sonic against classic Nintendo. Seriously, we've had three instances of Sonic failing us in game contests, yet now this is going fine, despite Portal 2 being able to boost GLaDOS from being doubled by Kirby to being able to go even with Kefka...actually thinking about it that's probably not much of an increase! I just had the impression that Portal 2 gave her a massive boost.

When your best non-joke character's biggest accomplishment is a narrow win over someone who was a big choker until recently, you probably suck.
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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
(edited 11/9/2015 1:35:44 AM)report
Eh... SFF/no SFF, LoZ % on Tetris, whatever other factors you want to bring in to play - 69% on Tetris is just not the sort of performance you expect from a game that is going to the final. This is a poor performance from Pokemon.
That's what I'd think, but who knows? Maybe Tetris is just legit.

REALLY doesn't feel like the kind of game that should be breaking 30% on top 5 material though.

Also have we had a single game from 2010-2012 advance? It seems like the early 2010s are especially disappointing here, looks like everyone just forgot about those games. So...

-Goldeneye 60-40's Skyrim and then does worse against the Prime/HL2 winner (why do we have this rematch again?)
-MGSV doubles Dark Souls, which triples Civ5
-SOTC blows out RDR
-What else am I missing again?
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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
(edited 11/9/2015 1:43:11 AM)report
Okay, so I was bored so I cobbled together this monstrosity.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3453-division-2-round-1-crystalis-ff2-mega-man-3-river-city-r
Mega Man 3 vs. FF4: 41.07%

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3481-division-2-round-2-smw-ff1-ff2-mega-man-3
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3495-division-2-final-smb-3-sonic-1-smw-ff2
FF4 vs. SMW (with FF1 in the poll): 30.63%
FF4 vs. SMW (with SMB3 in the poll): 39.02%

So FF4 vs. SMW is somewhere in between that range...I'll just take the average and say that FF4 vs. SMW is 34.92% indirectly.

Using that, Mega Man 3 vs. SMW is 28.68%.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3478-division-1-round-2-tetris-donkey-kong-mega-man-2-pac-man
Mega Man 2 vs. Tetris: 44.77%

Using today's poll, Tetris vs. RBY is currently 30.95%.

Using that, Mega Man 2 vs. RBY is 27.71%.


So hey, assuming Mega Man 2 = Mega Man 3, RBY still beats SMW based on current projections! If Mega Man 2 > Mega Man 3, RBY does even better!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
UltimaterializerX posted...
KamikazePotato posted...
UltimaterializerX posted...
swirIdude posted...
We're really not gonna know who wins SMB3/RBY Until the match takes place.


You do realize how obnoxious I'm allowed to be if Mario 3 wins, right?


Hey, here's an idea: how about you don't?


With all these clowns who keep saying I'm wrong? f*** that. People should know not to push my buttons by now.


Or else what? you will put them in your ignore list and call them clowns?
Please don't Ulti you are so scary
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3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066
Denzokuken posted...
Eh... SFF/no SFF, LoZ % on Tetris, whatever other factors you want to bring in to play - 69% on Tetris is just not the sort of performance you expect from a game that is going to the final. This is a poor performance from Pokemon.

Yeah, while it's not finished, if I could redo things is take Mario 64 over it. Which, given how close SMW and SM64 are, probably means I'd take SMW over it as well.

Up in the air with SMB3.

Certainly not trying to say Pokemon is doomed or anything. Tetris might 1) be weird 2) have changed strength a lot for some reason over the years 3) be more vulnerable to SFF from LoZ and SMB1, which are much closer to it in release date than R/B.

Edit: Who else here would change their R/B paths now, for those who had it going far?
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(edited 11/9/2015 1:54:08 AM)report
UItimaterializer posted...
DaruniaTheGoron posted...
People only argue with you because you are loud about it. Stop with the "f*** the haters" bulls***. You're not a rebel. You're on a goddamn stats thread. About video game polls.


Right, because liking video games obviously means I'm some fat neckbeard loser in a basement. I can't possibly have a marriage of 10+ years or a house or a good career going, nope.


If your life is perfect, why do you constantly vent your frustrations on a message board dedicated to a video game website popularity contest? Even I've outgrown that kind of s*** by now.

Tomorrow's match should be fun. Fallout 3 on the day that Fallout 4 comes out. Could be one hell of a overperformance.
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Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy IX - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3729662
Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64
Wait a minute. Walking Dead is one of those Telltale games things?

Aren't those, like, not real games? More choose your own adventure animated novels? Never played one but I saw a trailer for the Game of Thrones one. It seemed like a cheap thing created to make a quick buck. Is this one different than the Game of Thrones one, or the same type of thing?

I'm surprised something like that made the bracket (unless I'm mistaken about what it is). I wonder why most picked UC2 in the high 50's or 60ish vs. something like that.

After it's high numbers I thought UC2 was the clear favorite vs Sonic. I think I'd still favor UC2, but suddenly I'm much less impressed!
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Sotc will make it to the semis to face ocarina.
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The Telltale games are standard adventure games like Monkey Island and King's Quest. The Walking Dead simply has a lot more choices that can change stuff during the game than usual for the genre.
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Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy IX - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3729662
Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64
Walking Dead is amazing. a lot of people really adore that game and it fits in well with a site that likes narrative games. it won a lot of GOTY awards in 2012 and did alright in the polls here.
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
I think UC2 was a little underrated because some people were expecting more from The Walking Dead from its success as a popular ongoing TV show. Some were expecting the game to get votes from people who have not played the game, but are fans of the TV show.
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creativename posted...
Wait a minute. Walking Dead is one of those Telltale games things?

Aren't those, like, not real games? More choose your own adventure animated novels? Never played one but I saw a trailer for the Game of Thrones one. It seemed like a cheap thing created to make a quick buck. Is this one different than the Game of Thrones one, or the same type of thing?

I'm surprised something like that made the bracket (unless I'm mistaken about what it is). I wonder why most picked UC2 in the high 50's or 60ish vs. something like that.

After it's high numbers I thought UC2 was the clear favorite vs Sonic. I think I'd still favor UC2, but suddenly I'm much less impressed!


http://gotypicks.blogspot.com/2012/10/2012-game-of-year.html

Total Game of the Year awards for games in 2012:

The Walking Dead: The Game - 75
Journey - 57
Far Cry 3 - 51
Dishonored - 49
Mass Effect 3 - 32
Borderlands 2 - 27
Assassin's Creed III - 25
XCOM: Enemy Unknown - 21
Halo 4 - 20
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
I remember it finishing 4th in the GOTY poll, narrowly beating out Assassin's Creed III.

Which doesn't sound impressive at all, although I think at the time we were impressed that TWD was making noise at all.

Ha, the top two GOTY 2012 winners getting blown out on back-to-back days! And then the next two not even making the bracket.
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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
(edited 11/9/2015 2:14:49 AM)report
creativename posted...
Wait a minute. Walking Dead is one of those Telltale games things?

Aren't those, like, not real games? More choose your own adventure animated novels? Never played one but I saw a trailer for the Game of Thrones one. It seemed like a cheap thing created to make a quick buck. Is this one different than the Game of Thrones one, or the same type of thing?

I'm surprised something like that made the bracket (unless I'm mistaken about what it is). I wonder why most picked UC2 in the high 50's or 60ish vs. something like that.

After it's high numbers I thought UC2 was the clear favorite vs Sonic. I think I'd still favor UC2, but suddenly I'm much less impressed!


I only played Tales from the Borderlands, and it was legit..I guess TWD is the same
It's as much as a game as PW and Life is Strange
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Wow, RBY's percentage still dipping. Look likes it's really "there goes bracket".
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I keep forgetting how late RBY would run into SM64 and that if it loses to SMB3 I'll still lose a lot of points >_>
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Thanks for the info guys.

So an award winning adventure game huh? I used to play some of the Sierra games back in the day. Wasn't really my cup of tea, though I did like the Quest for Glory games for their humor. Haven't played an adventure game for ages. Had once intended to play Monkey Island but never got around to it.

Still doesn't seem like the type of game that would be strong on this site - or most sites, for that matter. I still would now pick UC2 over Sonic but it's pretty debatable. Walking Dead should be very weak IMO, regardless of how many awards it won.
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I grew up on Sierra games too. Walking Dead is a totally different breed of adventure game to those.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4956-best-of-2012-best-adventure-puzzle-game
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4960-best-of-2012-game-of-the-year

it's not strong but it's not very weak.
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xyzzy
How strong do we think Age of Empires 2 actually is?

One of my fav PC games growing up and all, but how would it fare vs. Tetris?
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pretty poorly. we're focusing on Tetris but I'm a little disappointed in Mario 3 as well.
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xyzzy
Portal 2's been stalling Sonic 2 for the last hour-ish. it's probably just the deep night, but if those votes are an indication of the day vote...
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xyzzy
Gauging Tetris is just such a hassle, anything Tetris related seems to fluctuate like crazy.
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Dr voltchball - best in the world.
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I think that could be the Europe vote in full swing now. Apart from the UK (which loves Sonic), you see a lot of blue over in Europe. I don't think it's anything major to worry about.
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transience posted...
pretty poorly. we're focusing on Tetris but I'm a little disappointed in Mario 3 as well.


Actually yeah, Mario's been bleeding like nuts. Seems common with Nintendo games though. Could be their undoing.
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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
Think people might be underselling AOE2. Not that it's a particularly strong game, but in a contest where StarCraft isn't terrible it's probably worth giving AOE a bit more credit than 'the worst turbofodder ever.'

Anyway, I expected Mario 3 to be around 85% and Pokemon to be about 80%, so this seems a bit shocking. It makes me a little more confident in Mario, if only because Pokemon isn't lighting things up from the start, but this feels hard to read either way.

Sonic 2 winning good to see. Not sure how the day vote goes here after ME1 yesterday, but Sonic's doing pretty good.
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satoru iwata
Heh. I knew Age of Empires was being underrated. Still a blowout. But 90%? Please.

Say "PC game" all that you want, but that was one of the most popular PC games of its era.

Pokemon seems to be underperforming... I guess? Dunno what to think about the match.

Seems like my Walking Dead upset didn't pay off.

And Portal 2 sucks at contests. Such a good game, but it was noticeable how much the game failed to catch any hype when it was launched.
(edited 11/9/2015 3:46:17 AM)report
Sonic's lead's over 600 now. Don't want to jump the gun and call that "safe", but things are looking pretty good.
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I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
Arkham City, Super Mario Galaxy 2, and Portal 2 all out in the first round.

This contest.
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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Arkham City, Super Mario Galaxy 2, and Portal 2 all out in the first round.

This contest.


Arkham City is not supposed to be a strong game
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3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066
I guess Age of Empires 2 got a renaissance of sort from going on Steam, but for such a loved game, that brand has been killed so bad.

We should be awaiting some kind of super awesome Age of Empires 5 by now, but Total War seems to be the go to series now for this kind of stuff.
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The studio that made Age games broke, iirc

But then random stuff I don't know about happened and eventually it ended up on Steam.

Now Age of Mythology is getting an expansion (after 15 years!) and who knows what else.
(edited 11/9/2015 4:08:49 AM)report
Ugh. I knew I shouldn't have switched to Portal 2 > Sonic 2. Every year the board gets me on one thing, but helps me on many others. I guess Portal 2 was my sacrifice to the board help this year.

I would expect Tetris to double AoE. I think this still looks very close for next round.
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Conformity and rebellion...both ways are simple-minded--they are only for people who cannot cope with contradiction and ambiguity.
Just some food for thought, Uncharted 2's % against The Walking Dead looks similar to what Drake would be projected to get on Lee Everett.
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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
LinkMarioSamus posted...
transience posted...
pretty poorly. we're focusing on Tetris but I'm a little disappointed in Mario 3 as well.


Actually yeah, Mario's been bleeding like nuts. Seems common with Nintendo games though. Could be their undoing.


Yeah, ok, HOW?


With the exception of the CT vs Melee, and the CT/FF VII winner going against the Mario gauntlet/RBY game that escaped, when the hell does a major Nintendo game go up against anything except another Nintendo game in a debated match? Maybe SMRPG vs Oblivion? Oh god no, how horrible, it might effect one match and be SMRPG's undoing.
That's true, I didn't exactly have any bracket matchup in mind.
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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
Now that we've seen B:AC get 60-40'd and are seeing Portal 2 trails behind Sonic 2, I've not heart anyone say how this bodes for Skyrim. It's not favorable so far based off of its 2011 GotY-polls, though my guess is it'll still reach Super Mario 64. It just makes upsetting SM64 look less and less likely. If Dark Souls fails to do well, that'd be another sign.

Then again, Mass Effect just did well as an WRPG and Fallout 4 is about to release, so it's still a mystery what'll happen.
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M E N: nominate Metal Man in 20XX!
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Games from the late '00s have generally being doing less badly than games from the early '10s, so Mass Effect upsetting Galaxy 2 makes sense.

Mass Effect 2 could be in trouble. Though on the other hand it came out in like February '10 so probably too early for it to be the same deal. Not going to get past MGS3 either way. StarCraft could give it a scare.
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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
HaRRicH posted...
Now that we've seen B:AC get 60-40'd and are seeing Portal 2 trails behind Sonic 2, I've not heart anyone say how this bodes for Skyrim. It's not favorable so far based off of its 2011 GotY-polls, though my guess is it'll still reach Super Mario 64. It just makes upsetting SM64 look less and less likely. If Dark Souls fails to do well, that'd be another sign.

Then again, Mass Effect just did well as an WRPG and Fallout 4 is about to release, so it's still a mystery what'll happen.


I've said since the beginning, it is very likely that Metroid will face Half Life 2 and Goldeneye in a row, as Skyrim gets dropped round 2. Now, I picked Skyrim to get to the division finals and get massacred by the Zelda/Mario winner, but I would not be AT ALL shocked if Metroid or Goldeneye put this thing to sleep. There is nothing except fanboy hope, and weird game polls that have nothing to do with contests which says Skyrim is going to be anything special at all. It got an extraordinarily easy half of a region, literally the only one in the whole bracket it would have a prayer of escaping, so Mountain Climbing Simulator 2011 probably still prevails to it's expected destination, but who cares, it's not beating anything impressive to get there.
Goldeneye, Prime, and HL2 have all shown signs of strength. Skyrim would probably stand a chance in GTAV's half-division (if Oblivion supposedly does at least).

We've all just felt like Skyrim should be strong without anything real to back it. There's one particular piece of evidence for Skyrim being very strong that I won't mention because people are sick of me mentioning it.
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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
If there is one game that could go against trends it would be Skyrim, but I always found the people who took it to win the division to be a bit weird. It always had a great chance at losing before the division final and like I said before Skyrim > GoldenEye was my final choice in the bracket.
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BGE3: Today's Matches SMB3>AoEII, Pokemon RBYG>Tetris, Sonic 2>Portal 2, Unchated 2>TWD
Points 13/16

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