Galaxy 2 needs almost 65% of the votes from here on to tie.
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xyzzy
UltimaterializerX posted...
This one is probably officially over. Not enough votes coming in to come back from losing by almost 500.


Yep, its done. Pissed off my bracket got hit, but the better game won.
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XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak
PSN ID - Kudaark Steam Name : skaalfa
ROUND 1 – DAY 5 – TOP OF DIVISION 3

Match XVII: (1) Super Mario Bros. 3 vs. (16) Age of Empires II: The Age of Kings

Previous Performance

Super Mario Bros. 3 – 2009
75.85% against Secret of Monkey Island, SimCity, Tecmo Super Bowl
48.68% against Sonic 1, Street Fighter II, Secret of Monkey Island
32.76% against Super Mario World, Final Fantasy IV, Sonic 1
29.00% against Super Mario World, The Legend of Zelda, Super Mario Bros.
15.41% against Final Fantasy VII, LoZ: A Link to the Past, Super Mario World

Age of Empires II: The Age of Kings – N/A
N/A

Analysis

When the bracket was released this match was in contention for blowout of the contest, especially among non-SFF matches. Many of the checkboxes are ticked, strong popular game with little anti-votes against a PC game with little brand recognition for a site like GameFAQs. Age of Empires isn’t completely unknown so I don’t see SMB3 breaking 90%.

Currently the biggest blowout is Chrono Trigger’s performance on Ratchet & Clank and I think SMB3 can at least match this. While this match will have no bearing on next round, it’s probably for the best for it to look as good as possible.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Super Mario Bros. 3 > Age of Empires II

charmander6000’s Prediction: Super Mario Bros. 3 wins, 87.17% - 12.83%



Match XVIII: (8) Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green vs. (9) Tetris

Previous Performance

Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green – 2009
50.68% against LoZ: Majora’s Mask, Perfect Dark, Banjo-Kazooie
26.27% against Metal Gear Solid, LoZ: Majora’s Mask, Pokemon GSC
22.63% against LoZ: Ocarina of Time, Metal Gear Solid, Final Fantasy VIII
20.85% against LoZ: Ocarina of Time, Final Fantasy X, Super Smash Bros. Melee

Tetris – 2009
53.65% against Donkey Kong, Mike Tyson’s Punch-Out!!, Space Invaders
39.49% against Mega Man 2, Pac-Man, Donkey Kong
15.67% against Super Mario Bros., The Legend of Zelda, Mega Man 2

Analysis

I’m pretty disappointed with Tetris’ bracket position, it’s one thing to have no chance, but it’s another to be stuck with an old Nintendo game. This is a type of game I wanted to see go up against a newer type game. About 55% against Mega Man 2 is pretty good, but of course it won’t be able to compete against Pokemon.

The main question is how much SFF this match will have. In a normal match I predict Pokemon to finish in the mid-60s, this is more comes from comparing Mega Man 2 and Mega Man X. In a match with SMB and LoZ the game still broke 30% on them, but while Pokemon is much stronger than them its capability to SFF Tetris may not be as strong. I’m going to play it safe with my prediction, but in a SFF match we could see a large range of results, even if the match was held again next week.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Pokemon RBYG > Tetris

charmander6000’s Prediction: Pokemon RBYG wins, 72.15% - 27.85%
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BGE3: Today's Matches SSBWiiU>Planescape, SMG2>ME, Halo>Minecraft, FFVII>Journey
Points 10/12
Match XIX: (5) Portal 2 vs. (12) Sonic the Hedgehog 2

Previous Performance

Portal 2 – N/A
N/A

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 – 2009
37.32% against Mortal Kombat II, Secret of Mana, Shining Force II
19.18% against Final Fantasy VI, LoZ: Link’s Awakening, Mortal Kombat II

Analysis

This match has some importance because the winner here will likely be the favourite in the next round. In a contest where older games have been looking good Sonic 2 fans must be feeling a bit more confident. In its previous contest Sonic 2 did okay, but it was nothing special.

The main reason I took Sonic 2 is because I do not expect Portal 2 to have much strength. This was concluded from Wheatley’s performance in 2013 though trying to compare characters with games is a bit like playing with fire. Personally I see Portal 2 as weaker than the original though that has been debated among Portal fans on this board. Still Portal did not exactly look too good against Melee so there is a scenario where Portal 2 could be stronger and still lose to Sonic 2.

If my prediction of Portal 2 being weaker than the original is correct I feel quite confident that Sonic 2 will win. If not I may end up losing three points.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Sonic 2 > Portal 2

charmander6000’s Prediction: Sonic 2 wins, 54.52% - 45.48%



Match XX: (4) Uncharted 2: Among Thieves vs. (13) The Walking Dead: A Telltale Games Series

Previous Performance

Uncharted 2: Among Thieves – 2010
57.40% against Legend of Dragoon
54.04% against Street Fighter IV
46.32% against Halo: Combat Evolved

The Walking Dead: A Telltale Games – N/A
N/A

Analysis

After watching many of the games released around Uncharted 2’s time underperform I do not expect much out of the game. With that said I do expect it to win this match. While The Walking Dead will get some strength from the television show the game itself is not hugely popular and overall isn’t the type of game that is loved by GameFAQs.

I don’t expect The Walking Dead to be as weak as Lee Everett or Clementine since the game has brand recognition. I can see the game looking a bit respectable though that may come at the expense of Uncharted 2’s weakness.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Uncharted 2 > The Walking Dead

charmander6000’s Prediction: Uncharted 2 wins, 62.26% - 37.74%
---
BGE3: Today's Matches SSBWiiU>Planescape, SMG2>ME, Halo>Minecraft, FFVII>Journey
Points 10/12
I thought Galaxy is supposed to be strong during the day? Why didn't it gain ground against ME at that time?
Or have trends gone down the drain this contest?
I expect The Walking Dead to have one of the best rallies of this contest. While most communities don't care about these contests, that fanbase is obsessed, and they will come if called. The subreddit has 1,700 users logged in now, and that's plenty for a substantial rally. Watch out.
Only just started reading these, but some interesting stats in these topics. Thanks for taking the time to compile them.
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- The Admiral
handsomeboy2012 posted...
I thought Galaxy is supposed to be strong during the day? Why didn't it gain ground against ME at that time?
Or have trends gone down the drain this contest?


Mass Effect is a western game and probably has a good day vote, and Nintendo games are often front-loaded. There's nothing too surprising about this match imo. I considered Mario the upset but went with it because I was wary about taking anything Western against Nintendo, even when the Nintendo game is new and not that cared about.
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http://i.imgur.com/gByqgPg.gif
You know, I may have lost a point on Mario, but I'm just glad Minecraft is getting eliminated - and I'm really glad that no rallies for it caught on.

Dealing with the Minecraft fanbase for an entire contest period... can you imagine? I'd rather drink arsenic than be exposed to that.
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JAK
The Character Battle IX people's champ.
Halo beating Minecraft is a definite good thing about these matches.
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satoru iwata
Samurai7 posted...
ZFS posted...
Sonic vs Portal is tomorrow! Forgot about that. Not sure where people are on that one, but that should be good.


Portal 2 is the guru favorite, and it's what I have. Not confident in the slightest. Could Portal 2 avoid an FFVI doubling? I think it will be close.


I would definitely take FFVI to double Sonic 2. If you wanna compare it to another new vs. old match, I would also take MMX to 60-40 Sonic 2. Only question is how Portal 2 matches up to Arkham City and Portal 1.
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All the stars in the sky are waiting for you.
Mac Arrowny posted...
I would definitely take FFVI to double Sonic 2.


Good call, because that's exactly what it did!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3483-division-3-round-2-ff3-zelda-la-sonic-2-mk2

Well, not quite, but close!

Mega Man X/Sonic 2 is only projected to be 55/45 based on their common opponents in 2009 though!
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
The only real hope for portal 2 is hoping AC is weaker now than during the goty poll and that portal 2 retained strength somehow. Before you linked that i didn't think portal 2 getting 55% on AC or avoiding the doubling with ffvi was a stretch. Now I'm not sure.
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Conformity and rebellion...both ways are simple-minded--they are only for people who cannot cope with contradiction and ambiguity.
LeonhartFour posted...
also we know how Portal 2 stacks up to Arkham City...!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4589-best-of-2011-best-multi-platform-game-final


Welp, I'm about to lose three points.
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"The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima
raytan: Champ without picking the champ
swirIdude posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
also we know how Portal 2 stacks up to Arkham City...!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4589-best-of-2011-best-multi-platform-game-final


Welp, I'm about to lose three points.


I'm pretty confident Batman has gotten weaker due to Origins and Knight. Even though it's fantastic compared to those titles. Regardless, Sonic definitely has a good chance to beat it.
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Video Games are pretty cool.
(edited 11/8/2015 7:39:08 PM)report
I want to say I'm happy for switching to Sonic last second, but I don't want to risk it.
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Tangy's Quest to beat the Final Fantasies: I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII, VIII, IX, X, XII, XIII
Damn, I'm just mad that this is how I'm losing my short-lived perfect bracket. ME was one of the matches that I picked in my day 1 bracket but switched to SMG2 after reading a bunch of people's analysis topics.
---
Hey man, LlamaGuy did encrypt the passwords.
With what? ROT-13? -CJayC
come on sonic

the more and more i think about all these old games doing well I think Sonic can be the one game that doesn't do exactly that and no one bats an eye at it
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sig
pssssssssssst - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/568795-soccer-challenge
I'm really hoping a lot of voters are mad and demand to see life's manager.
---
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
Future 2015 Guru Contest winner.
PokeFear starts... now.
---
JAK
The Character Battle IX people's champ.
Board votes are so much more ridiculous with this new 4 matches format.
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
more like Uncharted 2 fear

Pokemon looking kinda bad
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
Man and Sonic 2 is toast.

I am doing so bad this year.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest
"F*** Draven." -SBAllen
UltimaterializerX posted...
Man and Sonic 2 is toast.

I am doing so bad this year.


spoilers Portal 2 has brackets
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
UltimaterializerX posted...
Man and Sonic 2 is toast.

I am doing so bad this year.


Way to early to say that. Might just be bracket votes.
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My old signature was really outdated. I haven't thought of a proper new one yet.
Mass Effect 51.44%
Halo: Combat Evolved 38.88%
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Dr voltchball - best in the world.
raylan is awesome
(edited 11/8/2015 9:02:45 PM)report
Come on Sonic 2
---
BGE3: Today's Matches SSBWiiU>Planescape, SMG2>ME, Halo>Minecraft, FFVII>Journey
Points 10/12
I really don't think Pokemon is looking bad though.
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My old signature was really outdated. I haven't thought of a proper new one yet.
also darn you Mario 3 letting CT scoop you out of the blowout of the contest
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
UltimaterializerX posted...
Man and Sonic 2 is toast.

I am doing so bad this year.


We're literally 2 minutes in and it's close... and Portal has bracket support... you're smarter than this Ulti
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http://www.last.fm/user/VinnyMendoza
"This is all we have... when we die.."
UltimaterializerX posted...
Man and Sonic 2 is toast.

I am doing so bad this year.


What? If anything it looks like Portal is f***ed.
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XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak
PSN ID - Kudaark Steam Name : skaalfa
F*** a bracket vote. I have Portal 2 to R3 and voted Sonic 2 anyway.

If it wins, I'll never be so happy to give up three points in my life.
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JAK
The Character Battle IX people's champ.
ctesjbuvf posted...
I really don't think Pokemon is looking bad though.


It's probably going to finish below 70% the way things are looking. R/B/Y's board vote is Melee lite.
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
snap reaction: these results will have very little to say about Mario 3/Pokemon
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xyzzy
Tetris isn't getting crushed as badly
---
BGE3: Today's Matches SSBWiiU>Planescape, SMG2>ME, Halo>Minecraft, FFVII>Journey
Points 10/12
Dr_Football posted...
Mass Effect 51.44%
Halo: Combat Evolved 38.88%


Minecraft with that casual brackets.
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Agent Triple Zero at your service!
Future 2015 Guru Contest winner.
DaruniaTheGoron posted...
UltimaterializerX posted...
Man and Sonic 2 is toast.

I am doing so bad this year.


We're literally 2 minutes in and it's close... and Portal has bracket support... you're smarter than this Ulti


Does Portal 2 seriously have bracket support? I can't imagine people picking that game.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest
"F*** Draven." -SBAllen
i'm feeling super confident in Mario 3 > Pokemon
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http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxkdr0uNc91qlu5jao1_r1_400.gif
Portal 2/Sonic 2 froze really early for some weird reason.
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
Got Live on Learn on repeat. Lets do this, Sonic!
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http://steamsignature.com/card/0/76561197979294707.png
UltimaterializerX posted...
Does Portal 2 seriously have bracket support? I can't imagine people picking that game.


It's the Guru favorite. Nobody believes in Sonic, apparently!
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
Xuxon posted...
i'm feeling super confident in Mario 3 > Pokemon


As well you should!

There is an insane amount of evidence suggesting RBY > Mario 3 is idiocy without a rally.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest
"F*** Draven." -SBAllen
Portal 2 is the guru favorite and higher seed.
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My old signature was really outdated. I haven't thought of a proper new one yet.
UltimaterializerX posted...
There is an insane amount of evidence


"Mario > Samus"
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
UltimaterializerX posted...
DaruniaTheGoron posted...
UltimaterializerX posted...
Man and Sonic 2 is toast.

I am doing so bad this year.


We're literally 2 minutes in and it's close... and Portal has bracket support... you're smarter than this Ulti


Does Portal 2 seriously have bracket support? I can't imagine people picking that game.


Do you just not look at the Guru or
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http://www.last.fm/user/VinnyMendoza
"This is all we have... when we die.."
I figured people would remember Wheatley losing to Crash f***ing Bandicoot and auto-pick Sonic.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest
"F*** Draven." -SBAllen
LOL I have Pokemon in the finals
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
Next update will be huge.
---
BGE3: Today's Matches SSBWiiU>Planescape, SMG2>ME, Halo>Minecraft, FFVII>Journey
Points 10/12
man, MMX was already up like 63-37 on Arkham City

Sonic sucks
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xyzzy

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