GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1195
Looks
like the casuals didn't fare too much better than us in the DQ match,
and like us found the Batman vs Mega Man X match debatable. Quite
surprising 40% went with Half-Life. We'll be laughing when the GTA matches come, so don't worry. --- Ole, ole, ole, ole. Ole! Ole! (Accents and inverted !-marks missing) On a bet with three other users on if a certain girl genie will be in Smash; I say no. |
Saw this by red sox in the last topic... In general, the x-stats are far more accurate than people's intuition. The x-stats are essentially just the past results. Most of the cases that cause the x-stats to fail are easily predictable/identifiable (SFF/LFF accounts for a majority of such cases). I'd say by far what most causes them to fail is legit changes in underlying strength. So time is the biggest thing. 1 year can cause big changes; 5 years and a different format make stats quite unreliable. Apparently they predicted DQ8 vs P3 well, but that probably a fluke of both games having the same shift in strength, ala Tidus/Shadow. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
LeonhartFour posted... 13694 brackets overall, for the record. 13695 brackets, actually. That's a bit lower than I was expecting, since I even managed to confirm the yellow site alert was having a significant impact on getting people to sign up for an account so they can fill out a bracket. Compared to the average number of accounts that were being created per day before the yellow site alert went up, the yellow site alert boosted the number of account sign-ups on the final day of bracket entries by 70%. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
The casuals for some reason always think Western games are stronger here than they really are. --- http://img.imgcake.com/whatisurnameplz/kermitgifre.gif Oh yea, I guess raytan won. |
Honestly surprised how many people didn't pick MMX to win. Good for me though, even if only a 1 point match. |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted... POOTERSS posted...This is what I believe are, right now, 11/6/15, the current top 10 games on this site in a contest setting like this: show me your list then Black Turtle |
Expect a surprisingly low % for Melee too. It usually has a low one. --- http://i.imgur.com/M1heX2g.jpg RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :( |
Has there ever been a board contest to predict the predictions? --- Hey man, LlamaGuy did encrypt the passwords. With what? ROT-13? -CJayC |
_Dog posted... Looks like the casuals didn't fare too much better than us in the DQ match, and like us found the Batman vs Mega Man X match debatable. Quite surprising 40% went with Half-Life. I have GTA 5 going to the division final. --- XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak PSN ID - Kudaark Steam Name : skaalfa |
LeonhartFour posted... 40% of brackets had Half-Life? Holy crap. That's gotta be a bad omen for FFX, no? --- "The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima raytan: Champ without picking the champ |
Tidus boxart really f***ed FFX over But 40% backed HL lmao --- Your signature is automatically appended to the bottom of every post you make. Your 'About Me' message is displayed on your profile page. You can include any in |
-hotdogturtle-- posted... Has there ever been a board contest to predict the predictions? There has, but I don't think anyone's doing it this year. --- "The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima raytan: Champ without picking the champ |
swirIdude posted... LeonhartFour posted...40% of brackets had Half-Life? Holy crap. Well, prediction percentages generally don't have any bearing on future matches. It just gives you an idea of what the site is thinking. Bracket voting would only matter in very early rounds and only if the match is really close. By the time FFX gets to CT or Melee (if it gets that far), bracket voting won't really matter. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
It's
sad how few brackets there (not a surprise, though), considering it's,
you know, the 20th anniversary of GameFAQs! I wonder what percentage
of the 13000ish visit Board 8 regularly? I don't know how many people
visit Board 8 on a semi-regular basis, but of course the number goes up
during contest season. Melee vs. Portal.... okay, Melee is dominating about as expected, but I really thought Portal would be stronger. If Portal strengthened, Melee would crazy strong. At least this match result provides another glimmer of hope that Sonic 2 can beat Portal 2. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
-hotdogturtle-- posted... Has there ever been a board contest to predict the predictions? Yes. I ran a Prediction Percentage Contest in the Summer 2004 Character Battle, and other people ran it some other contests. I'm not sure if it's been done for the last several contests, though. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
Haste_2 posted... It's sad how few brackets there (not a surprise, though), considering it's, you know, the 20th anniversary of GameFAQs! I wonder what percentage of the 13000ish visit Board 8 regularly? I don't know how many people visit Board 8 on a semi-regular basis, but of course the number goes up during contest season. I suppose anyone new to contests who visits board 8 (and especially the stats topic) would quickly realize that they have no chance of winning, and spending time making a bracket would be futile. It's quite a mountain of information to digest, even when the data is prepared and organized in a chart. Just a hypothesis. |
this contest gets like 30k votes per round, why would we have much more than that a ~40% bracket rate isn't bad --- xyzzy |
I'm kinda glad isn't higher. Or else you could basically just assume everyone will bracketvote and then you don't even need to run the contest. just reveal the prediction percentages and say "Yup OoT wins" --- Board 8's Voice of Reason http://i.imgur.com/chXIw06.jpg |
I'm
not too surprised about MMX's prediction percent. Mega Man has always
done poorly in prediction percents plus it was the bottom seed. FFX doing so poorly was a bit of a surprise, even against a game like Half-Life. --- BGE3: Today's Matches SSBM>Portal, Pokemon GSC>TWEWY, KHII>MGS4, TLoU>Halo 3 Points 2/4 |
So only interesting for trying to predict the %: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5383-best-of-2013-game-of-the-year-final http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5374-best-of-2013-3ds Didn't realize Pokemon came within like 100 votes of winning its years, wonder how it holds up against wind waker. --- Hello, I'm Chris! https://media.giphy.com/media/2ZtIpjwFFjLHLNREpCU/giphy.gif |
ROUND 1 – DAY 3 – TOP OF DIVISION 2 Match IX: (1) Final Fantasy VI vs. (16) Assassin’s Creed II Previous Performance Final Fantasy VI – 2009 40.05% against LoZ: Link’s Awakening, Mega Man X and Phantasy Star IV 37.32% against LoZ: Link’s Awakening, Sonic 2 and Mortal Kombat II 32.09% against LoZ: A Link to the Past, Super Metroid, LoZ: Link’s Awakening 13.85% against Final Fantasy VII, LoZ: A Link to the Past, Super Mario 64 Assassin’s Creed II – 2010 61.89% against ICO 39.15% against The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker Analysis Ever since that Final Fantasy poll I find that people have been overrating Final Fantasy VI. It defeating Final Fantasy VII was impressive, but we’ve seen these types of polls in the past and usually they do not translate well in the contest. Even if the poll is accurate I would sooner take it as a sign of Final Fantasy VII’s weakness rather than strength for Final Fantasy VI. Assassin’s Creed II is more than a typical 16 seed if you take previous results into account. Speaking of previous results that match against Wind Waker in 2010 may be used as an indicator for FFVI’s chances in round 3. However, I see the game being quite a bit weaker now. Since 2010 the series has been saturated with Assassin’s Creed games which may have put offed a few fans. charmander6000’s Bracket: Final Fantasy VI > Assassin’s Creed II charmander6000’s Prediction: Final Fantasy VI wins, 66.25% - 33.75% Match X: (8) Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door vs. (9) Tales of Symphonia Previous Performance Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door – 2010 59.82% against Gears of War 44.83% against The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion Tales of Symphonia – 2010 52.17% against Resident Evil 5 48.54% against God of War Analysis On paper this is expected to be a close match. 2010 Oblivion and God of War were relatively close in strength, especially when you remember their match in 2009. I, along with many people sided with Paper Mario and while we could give many reasons I think it boils down to name recognition and that Tales of Symphonia is a great candidate to be a lot weaker. The game has had nothing since its release while the other Tales games are almost non-existent to the casual population on GameFAQs. I do wonder if console SFF may play a role in this. Even though Tales of Symphonia is not made by Nintendo its characters have exhibited Nintendo-like qualities. Also for a console with so few RPGs it is likely that Gamecube RPG fans may have played both games and it could be possible that they may disproportionally support one over the other. charmander6000’s Bracket: Paper Mario: TTYD > Tales of Symphonia charmander6000’s Prediction: Paper Mario TTYD wins, 56.25% - 43.75% --- BGE3: Today's Matches SSBM>Portal, Pokemon GSC>TWEWY, KHII>MGS4, TLoU>Halo 3 Points 2/4 |
Match XI: (5) Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic vs. (12) Xenogears Previous Performance Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic – 2010 58.05% against Devil May Cry 60.63% against Fire Emblem 46.94% against Final Fantasy IX Xenogears – 2009 12.80% against Final Fantasy VIII, Starcraft and Soul Calibur Analysis This will be Xenogears’ first fair match since it defeated Pokemon GSC in 2004. While the upset could happen this would be more from blind faith than anything. While comparing SFF matches isn’t the best idea looking at what Xenogears did against Final Fantasy VII in 2004 and Final Fantasy VIII in 2009 leaves me to believe that the game has not aged well. Star Wars on the other hand had an impressive performance against Final Fantasy IX and did quite well in 2009. Like Xenogears it is possible that game may have regressed a bit, but I am hoping we don’t see anything too drastic. charmander6000’s Bracket: Star Wars: KotOR > Xenogears charmander6000’s Prediction: Star Wars: KotOR wins, 61.34% - 38.66% Match XII: (4) The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker (13) Pokemon X/Y Previous Performance The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker – 2010 63.95% against God of War II 60.85% against Assassin’s Creed II 56.20% against The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion 43.21% against The Legend of Zelda: Majora’s Mask Pokemon X/Y – N/A N/A Analysis I actually believe Pokemon XY and will have strength. While RSE and DPP didn’t do too well in GotD that was because at the time RSE was still disliked while Pokemon fans never cared too much about fourth gen. Sixth generation on the other hand was well liked and it actually made building a team a lot for easier for the competitive people. Depending on who you ask the games could be up to the third strongest in the series. Of course even if you ignore any SFF between Majora’s Mask and Wind Waker the game only did marginally worse than Pokemon GSC. While I am confident that Pokemon XY will have strength there’s little to no chance it will be at the same level as GSC. I hope SFF will be kept down to a minimum because this may be XY’s only shot to make a good impression. charmander6000’s Bracket: LoZ: The Wind Waker > Pokemon XY charmander6000’s Prediction: LoZ: The Wind Waker wins, 58.33% - 41.67% --- BGE3: Today's Matches SSBM>Portal, Pokemon GSC>TWEWY, KHII>MGS4, TLoU>Halo 3 Points 2/4 |
5,376
people predicted FFX would lose. Assuming half those people
bracket-voted against FFX, if those votes were taken away (as they will
be in the next round), FFX would have gotten right at 70%. Does it stand
a chance going forward with that total? |
Just assume those are antivotes I mean just look at that boxart. LOOK AT TIDUS. --- Your signature is automatically appended to the bottom of every post you make. Your 'About Me' message is displayed on your profile page. You can include any in |
In
retrospect I wouldn't put Pokemon down during the GotD contest. Even
though GSC didn't live up to expectations, it still managed 44% against
the eventual champion. RSE took down a heavily favored GTA IV (according
to casuals) and scored 40% against a legit Mario Galaxy. And DPP was
clearly SFF'd by Brawl, and thus I feel that we can't get a good reading
into that (and both Metroid Fusion and Fire Emblem 9 aren't slouches
IMO) What we can get out of the Wind Waker vs XY match is more or less what we might see in RBY vs OoT. --- Ole, ole, ole, ole. Ole! Ole! (Accents and inverted !-marks missing) On a bet with three other users on if a certain girl genie will be in Smash; I say no. |
POOTERSS posted... BlAcK TuRtLe posted...POOTERSS posted...This is what I believe are, right now, 11/6/15, the current top 10 games on this site in a contest setting like this: 1. OoT 2. FF7 3. Pokemon R/B/Y 4. Chrono Trigger 5. LttP 6. SMB3 7. FF6 8. SMW 9. SSB Melee 10. Majora's Mask 11. SM64 12. FFX 13. FF8 14. SSB Wii U 15. SSB Brawl Everything else --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy -trancer1 lol xstats |
I appreciate your faith in FFVIII, but I'm not seeing it anymore --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png LongLiveraytan |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted... POOTERSS posted...BlAcK TuRtLe posted...POOTERSS posted...This is what I believe are, right now, 11/6/15, the current top 10 games on this site in a contest setting like this: Surprisingly little confidence in a SM64 game that straight up beat CT twice. Then again, your Mario rankings are laughable, as SMB3 would get torched by SMW this time , but Pokemon is gonna murder it first. SMB 3 is the third of the big 3 Mario games. And probably by a pretty significant distance. |
EmDubyaSee posted... BlAcK TuRtLe posted...POOTERSS posted...BlAcK TuRtLe posted...POOTERSS posted...This is what I believe are, right now, 11/6/15, the current top 10 games on this site in a contest setting like this: I have no faith in 4-way results, particularly with how the site's demographics are shifting back to what we saw in 2004. As for SMB3/SMW, its a damn shame we won't see those 2 go against eachother, because I think its a really compelling match. I have to give 3 the edge over World though. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy -trancer1 lol xstats |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted... EmDubyaSee posted...BlAcK TuRtLe posted...POOTERSS posted...BlAcK TuRtLe posted...POOTERSS posted...This is what I believe are, right now, 11/6/15, the current top 10 games on this site in a contest setting like this: Besides ignoring past results which say differently, why do you think SMB3 would win? |
ugh BT/MWC dick-off --- xyzzy |
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1651-division-16-semifinals-chrono-trigger-vs-super-mario-world http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1661-tournament-semifinal-super-mario-bros-3-vs-chrono-trigger Uhhhh --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy -trancer1 lol xstats |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
I have no problem with someone using 11 year old stats, unless they actually DID face each other last time, and in a match that SMW had 0 business of winning held down by other games from its console generation, SMW won. |
I've
never played either game, but in terms of my experience of their
perceived quality and respect, KotOR vs. Xenogears has to be one of the
top 1st round matches in terms of sheer game quality. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
transience posted... ugh BT/MWC dick-off So glad I can't see it. --- "The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima raytan: Champ without picking the champ |
EmDubyaSee posted... BlAcK TuRtLe posted... I'll take 11 year old stats that are a 1v1 match against a common opponent when we're seeing the site return to 2004 trends, rather than 2 6 year old wonky 4-way matches filled to the brim with SFF and triple the votals we have this contest. But that's just me. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy -trancer1 lol xstats |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted... when we're seeing the site return to 2004 trends what --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Yeah that was kinda random. |
LeonhartFour posted... BlAcK TuRtLe posted...when we're seeing the site return to 2004 trends Low votals and a trend backwards to classic 'GameFAQsy' games. How else would you explain all 8 of the results we have seen so far. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy -trancer1 lol xstats |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted... LeonhartFour posted...BlAcK TuRtLe posted...when we're seeing the site return to 2004 trends The votals are pathetic compared to 10 years ago. And Pokemon was also hated at the time. --- Ole, ole, ole, ole. Ole! Ole! (Accents and inverted !-marks missing) On a bet with three other users on if a certain girl genie will be in Smash; I say no. |
swirIdude posted... transience posted...ugh BT/MWC dick-off That's great imagery. "BT and MWC are in a dick measuring contest. Thankfully, we still cannot see the dicks in question." |
these vote totals are half of what we had in 2004 and it's literally eight matches and newer games were actually pretty strong in 2004 FFVII was as old in 2004 as MGS4 is now --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Woudn't a return to 2004 era also make Pokemon really weak? --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png LongLiveraytan |
pjbasis posted... Woudn't a return to 2004 era also make Pokemon really weak? TWEWY as weak as Adventure confirmed --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Damn you to hell Persona3. Damn you straight to hell. --- 3DS FC: 3222 - 6243 - 6348 /DJ |
pjbasis posted... Woudn't a return to 2004 era also make Pokemon really weak? In terms of vote totals? --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
I am confused by your post, Luster. --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png LongLiveraytan |
